Discover the potential effects of China's new tariffs on US soybean exports, as shipments race against the clock to reach their destination before the additional duties are enforced.

U.S. farmers are concerned that the recent tariff pause with China may not boost soy sales, as Brazil maintains a competitive edge and some tariffs remain.

In 2024, Chinese exports of trade goods to the United States amounted to about 438.95 billion U.S. dollars; a significant increase from 1985 levels, when imports from China amounted to about 3.86 billion U.S. dollars. U.S. exports to China Compared to U.S. imports from China, the value of U.S. exports to China in 2020 amounted to 427.23billion U.S. dollars. China is the United States’ largest trading partner, while China was the United States third largest goods export market. Some of the leading exports to China in the agricultural sector included soybeans, cotton, and pork products. Texas was the leading state that exported to China in 2020 based on total value of goods exports, at 16.9 billion U.S. dollars. U.S. - China trade war The trade war between the United States and China is an economic conflict between two of the world’s largest national economies. It started in 2018 when U.S. President Donald Trump started putting tariffs and trade barriers on China, with the intent to get China to conform to Trump’s wishes. President Trump claimed that China has unfair trade businesses. As a result of this trade war, it has caused a lot of tension between the U.S. and China. Nearly half of American companies impacted by the U.S.-China trade tariffs said that the trade war increased their cost of manufacturing. The healthcare product industry has suffered the most from the trade war in regards to reduced profits.

Discover how China navigates trade tensions by importing U.S. soybeans despite high tariffs, focusing on strategic relations and competition with Brazil.

Soybeans rose to 1,015.50 USd/Bu on July 11, 2025, up 0.30% from the previous day. Over the past month, Soybeans's price has fallen 2.57%, and is down 7.94% compared to the same time last year, according to trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that tracks the benchmark market for this commodity. Soybeans - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on July of 2025.

U.S. soybean exports could fall by 20% amid ongoing trade tensions with China, affecting prices and market dynamics.

The US soybean farming industry is navigating significant changes in the current period, with soybean prices determining the initial rise and recent decline in industry performance. These prices have been influenced by several key factors, including the growing demand for biofuels and mixed consumer perceptions regarding soy products. The demand for soybean oil in biofuel production surged due to supportive policies like the Renewable Fuel Standard and rising crude oil prices, creating a lucrative market for soybean producers. However, subsequent drops in fertilizer and crude oil prices, paired with record-high soybean production, have sharply dropped soybean prices, bringing revenue and profit down with them as farmers struggle to balance costs with lower incomes. Industry has shrunk a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.6%, with a decrease of 8.7% in 2025, reaching an estimated $44.2 billion. US soybean exports are facing mounting challenges due to competitive pressures abroad and quickly evolving trade policy. Brazil’s increased production and improved export infrastructure have strengthened its position as a major supplier, particularly to China, which is reducing its reliance on US soybeans. This shift threatens US exports and compels American farmers to reassess their strategies, focusing on market diversification and emphasizing quality and sustainability to remain competitive. Rising geopolitical tensions and newly imposed tariffs, such as those affecting key markets like the EU, Canada and China, have further complicated trade, impacting US farmers' access and pricing power in these vital markets. Through the end of 2025, soybean prices are initially projected to decline due to increased production and growing global supplies. However, as climate change impacts crop yields through extreme weather and pest challenges and supplies become limited prices will be pushed upward alongside rising global demand. Subsidies will continue to play a vital role in supporting farmer incomes amids these fluctuations, providing some stability to an otherwise highly volatile industry. However, the industry faces significant uncertainty due to the ongoing USDA funding freeze is creating significant uncertainty, particularly where government support and subsidies are concerned. This freeze is affecting a wide range of agricultural programs including conservation efforts, market development, research and technical assistance. Over the next five years, the industry is expected to grow at a CAGR of 1.3%, with revenues reaching $47.1 billion by the end of 2030.

Beijing raises tariffs on US farm goods, intensifying trade conflict with a focus on soybeans and other key exports.

US agricultural exports are under pressure from global trade tensions, experiencing potential cancellations and volatility as major markets respond to geopolitical shifts.

Paraguayan soy farmers face a volatile global trade environment, with challenges from US-China tariffs and upcoming EU regulations, yet opportunities arise from potential market shifts and improved weather conditions.