On September 1, 2019, the United States imposed import tariffs on *** billion U.S. dollars worth of Chinese goods, such as footwear, food products, and some home electronics. A trade war between the world's two largest economies was initiated by president Trump in mid-2018 and escalated further throughout 2019.
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The US-China trade war created net export opportunities rather than simply shifting trade across destinations. Many “bystander” countries grew their exports of taxed products into the rest of the world (excluding US and China). Country-specific components of tariff elasticities, rather than specialization patterns, drove large cross-country variation in export growth of tariff-exposed products. The elasticities of exports to US-China tariffs identify whether a country’s exports complement or substitute US or China and its supply curve’s slope. Countries that operate along downward-sloping supplies whose exports substitute (complement) US and China are among the larger (smaller) beneficiaries of the trade war.
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Tariff rate, applied, weighted mean, all products (%) in China was reported at 2.18 % in 2022, according to the World Bank collection of development indicators, compiled from officially recognized sources. China - Tariff rate, applied, weighted mean, all products - actual values, historical data, forecasts and projections were sourced from the World Bank on July of 2025.
President Trump's proposals to impose universal tariffs as well as tariffs on Chinese, Canadian, and Mexican imports would considerably increase the average tariff rate. It's estimated that, if put into effect, the average tariff rate including dutiable imports would reach almost 18 percent, up from two percent in 2024. Tariff rates are higher when dutiable imports are included because they refer only to goods that are actually subject to tariffs, rather than all imports. This skews the average tariff rate upward because it excludes duty-free goods. Trump's proposal for a universal 10 percent tariff on all imports would impose a flat tax on all imports, rather than just dutiable goods. This would result in a sharp increase in the overall tariff burden because previously duty-free goods would be taxed.
The Trump administration's unprecedented tariffs are accelerating US-China decoupling, compelling business leaders to rethink strategies after decades of established trade norms.
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Tariff rate, applied, simple mean, all products (%) in China was reported at 5.36 % in 2022, according to the World Bank collection of development indicators, compiled from officially recognized sources. China - Tariff rate, applied, simple mean, all products - actual values, historical data, forecasts and projections were sourced from the World Bank on July of 2025.
On April 9, 2025, the U.S. imposed high import tariffs on Chinese goods. Average U.S. tariffs on imports from China reached ***** percent on April 10, 2025. In comparison, import levies on exports from the rest of the world were at around **** percent. In response to increased U.S. tariffs, China imposed retaliatory levies, averaging ***** percent as of April 12, 2025. After trade talks, the U.S. and China agreed to temporarily lower mutual trade barriers, leading to average U.S. tariffs of **** percent and average Chinese tariffs of **** percent on May 14, 2025.
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In response to President Trump’s escalation of trade relations, China countered by issuing tariffs on over 6,000 products worth over $110 billion in U.S. exports. We explore whether China’s tariffs reflected a strategy to apply counter-pressure by hurting political support for Republicans, assess the strategy’s impact on the 2018 mid-term elections, and examine the mechanism underlying the resulting electoral shift. We find strong evidence that Chinese tariffs systematically targeted U.S. goods whose production is concentrated in Republican-supporting counties, particularly when located in closely contested Congressional districts. This apparent strategy was successful: targeted areas were more likely to turn against Republican candidates. Using data on campaign communications, local search patterns online and an original national survey, we find evidence that voters residing in areas vulnerable to the tariffs were more likely to learn about the trade war, recognize its adverse impact, and assign the Republicans responsibility for the escalating situation.
This data package includes the underlying data and files to replicate the calculations, charts, and tables presented in The 2018 US-China Trade Conflict after 40 Years of Special Protection, PIIE Working paper 19-7.
If you use the data, please cite as: Bown, Chad P. (2019). The 2018 US-China Trade Conflict after 40 Years of Special Protection. PIIE Working paper 19-7. Peterson Institute for International Economics.
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Discover the potential effects of China's new tariffs on US soybean exports, as shipments race against the clock to reach their destination before the additional duties are enforced.
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Learn how rising US-China trade tariffs are affecting the apparel industry, with brands like Eastside Golf adjusting strategies to mitigate cost increases.
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The US tariff policies have significantly impacted the global trade management market, leading to both opportunities and challenges for businesses. In particular, tariffs on imported goods have increased the complexity of managing cross-border trade, requiring businesses to implement more sophisticated trade management solutions.
As companies face rising costs due to tariffs, the demand for trade management systems that help optimize customs compliance, minimize duties, and streamline logistics has surged. Furthermore, sectors such as manufacturing, retail, and transportation have felt the brunt of these tariffs, with industries directly impacted by increased trade barriers.
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For example, the retail sector has seen a rise in goods costs, ultimately affecting margins. The US tariff impact on sectors like manufacturing and retail is approximately 10-15% as they deal with higher raw material costs and inventory disruptions. Companies now look for more automation and integrated solutions to mitigate these costs and streamline operations.
The US tariffs have led to an increased cost of imports, pushing businesses to adopt more efficient trade management systems. As tariffs increase, businesses are forced to reevaluate their supply chain strategies, leading to higher operational costs. In the long term, this could prompt global shifts in trade flows.
US tariffs have disproportionately affected countries with high trade volumes with the US, especially China, Mexico, and Canada. As tariffs increase, businesses in these regions must adapt to higher costs and potential disruptions. This shift influences regional trade agreements and the movement of goods, altering global trade dynamics.
US tariffs have forced businesses to invest in advanced trade management technologies to mitigate the effects of increased import duties and logistical delays. Companies are now focusing on automation, compliance optimization, and cost-effective solutions to navigate the growing complexities of international trade. Small and medium-sized enterprises face considerable challenges.
This data package includes the underlying data and files to replicate the calculations, charts, and tables presented in The US–China trade war and phase one agreement, PIIE Working Paper 21-2.
If you use the data, please cite as: Bown, Chad P. (2021). The US–China trade war and phase one agreement. PIIE Working Paper 21-2. Peterson Institute for International Economics.
This data package includes the underlying data files to replicate the data, tables, and charts presented in Why Trump’s tariff proposals would harm working Americans, PIIE Policy Brief 24-1.
If you use the data, please cite as: Clausing, Kimberly, and Mary E. Lovely. 2024. Why Trump’s tariff proposals would harm working Americans. PIIE Policy Brief 24-1. Washington, DC: Peterson Institute for International Economics.
In May 2025, *** percent of China's exports to the United States were affected by the U.S. punitive tariffs. On May 14, 2025, the average level of tariffs on Chinese goods announced by U.S. President Donald Trump ranged at **** percent.
With an export share of over ** percent, the United States had been China's largest trade partner for years, until 2018, when the share fell significantly to **** percent, after the U.S. president, Donald Trump, imposed a *** percent tariff on goods from China. In 2024, the United States accounted for approximately **** percent of Chinese exports, reaching their lowest level in the last decade.
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We measure the tariff shocks by matching the U.S. products of Section 301 Tariffs with China provincial customs export data in 2017, the year before the trade war.First, based on the tariffed product lists released by the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR), which specify products at the Harmonized Tariff Schedule (HTS) eight-digit code level, we calculate the proportion of tariffed product categories under each six-digit HTS code. For instance, under the U.S. HTS-6 code 6309.29 (tents of other textile material), the corresponding sub-code includes 6306.29.11 (tents of cotton) and 6306.29.21 (tents made of other materials), with only 6306.29.11 being subject to additional tariffs. Thus, the tariffed rate for HTS code 6309.29 is 50%.Second, since the HTS-6 codes are consistent under the Harmonized System (HS) across countries, we estimate the scale of Chinese export affected by the trade war by multiplying the export data of HS-6 products by the corresponding HTS-6 tariffed rate.Third, we further adjust for provincial differences by dividing each province’s tariff-affected export scale by its total export scale.Fourth, the intensity of tariffs varied across the four rounds of the trade war. In the first three rounds, listed products were subjected to a 25% tariff, whereas the fourth round, while covering nearly all remaining U.S.-bound exports, had a lower tariff rate (7.5%), following the signing of the “Phase One” trade agreement between China and the U.S. in January 2020. To account for these differences, we assign a weight of 0.25 to the first three rounds and a weight of 0.075 to the fourth round. The weighted sum serves as a proxy variable for the provincial exposure of the U.S.-China trade war.
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The US-China tariff reduction agreement has sparked optimism among Chinese auto-parts manufacturers, enhancing the appeal of exports to American buyers.
President Trump's ten percent tariffs on imports from China, which went into effect on February 4, 2025, are projected to have negative effects on both the GDP of China and the U.S. However, the effect on China's GDP is expected to be stronger and result in a contraction by 0.16 percent in 2026 and 2027 compared to the baseline scenario. In contrast, the U.S. GDP is only projected to be 0.07 percent lower than in the baseline scenario in 2027. If China retaliates, the negative effects on both countries might be stronger.
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Tariffs are exerting a growing negative influence on the travel, tourism, and global supply chain sectors by driving up costs for both businesses and consumers. These added expenses often result in higher airfares, increased accommodation rates, and elevated overall travel budgets, making international tourism less attractive. For instance, airline operators facing higher import duties on fuel and aircraft components are forced to pass these costs onto passengers, which affects travel demand across borders.
The global tourism industry has demonstrated strong recovery momentum following the pandemic-era lockdowns, with demand for leisure and business travel rebounding across key markets. This upward trajectory is supported by increasing consumer confidence, greater digitalization in travel booking, and a renewed focus on experience-driven tourism.
Based on current growth patterns, global tourism spending is projected to surpass $2.9 trillion by 2035, marking a significant expansion from pre-pandemic levels. This long-term outlook is being bolstered by rising middle-class income in emerging markets, improved air connectivity, and supportive government policies aimed at rebuilding tourism ecosystems.
In the technology sector, companies like Apple have faced substantial financial impacts due to tariffs. Apple reported a $1.4 billion tariff hit, prompting the company to diversify its supply chain by shifting production from China to countries like India and Vietnam. This move aims to mitigate the effects of a 145% tariff on Chinese imports, which has significantly increased the cost of goods and affected pricing strategies.
On September 1, 2019, the United States imposed import tariffs on *** billion U.S. dollars worth of Chinese goods, such as footwear, food products, and some home electronics. A trade war between the world's two largest economies was initiated by president Trump in mid-2018 and escalated further throughout 2019.