This statistic shows the population growth rate of the top twenty largest urban agglomerations in the United States from 2000 to 2030. Between 2025 and 2030, the average annual population growth rate of the New York-Newark agglomeration is projected to be roughly **** percent.
According to this population forecast, in 2030 Amsterdam will remain the largest city in the Netherlands. It is forecast that the capital will have over one million inhabitants in 2030. Rotterdam, currently the second-largest city in the country, will keep its spot. By 2030, the population of Rotterdam is expected to reach just under 700,000 people.
In 2020, about 82.66 percent of the total population in the United States lived in cities and urban areas. As the United States was one of the earliest nations to industrialize, it has had a comparatively high rate of urbanization over the past two centuries. The urban population became larger than the rural population during the 1910s, and by the middle of the century it is expected that almost 90 percent of the population will live in an urban setting. Regional development of urbanization in the U.S. The United States began to urbanize on a larger scale in the 1830s, as technological advancements reduced the labor demand in agriculture, and as European migration began to rise. One major difference between early urbanization in the U.S. and other industrializing economies, such as the UK or Germany, was population distribution. Throughout the 1800s, the Northeastern U.S. became the most industrious and urban region of the country, as this was the main point of arrival for migrants. Disparities in industrialization and urbanization was a key contributor to the Union's victory in the Civil War, not only due to population sizes, but also through production capabilities and transport infrastructure. The Northeast's population reached an urban majority in the 1870s, whereas this did not occur in the South until the 1950s. As more people moved westward in the late 1800s, not only did their population growth increase, but the share of the urban population also rose, with an urban majority established in both the West and Midwest regions in the 1910s. The West would eventually become the most urbanized region in the 1960s, and over 90 percent of the West's population is urbanized today. Urbanization today New York City is the most populous city in the United States, with a population of 8.3 million, while California has the largest urban population of any state. California also has the highest urbanization rate, although the District of Columbia is considered 100 percent urban. Only four U.S. states still have a rural majority, these are Maine, Mississippi, Montana, and West Virginia.
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20 year Projected Urban Growth scenarios. Base year is 2000. Projected year in this dataset is 2020.
By 2020, most forecasters agree, California will be home to between 43 and 46 million residents-up from 35 million today. Beyond 2020 the size of California's population is less certain. Depending on the composition of the population, and future fertility and migration rates, California's 2050 population could be as little as 50 million or as much as 70 million. One hundred years from now, if present trends continue, California could conceivably have as many as 90 million residents.
Where these future residents will live and work is unclear. For most of the 20th Century, two-thirds of Californians have lived south of the Tehachapi Mountains and west of the San Jacinto Mountains-in that part of the state commonly referred to as Southern California. Yet most of coastal Southern California is already highly urbanized, and there is relatively little vacant land available for new development. More recently, slow-growth policies in Northern California and declining developable land supplies in Southern California are squeezing ever more of the state's population growth into the San Joaquin Valley.
How future Californians will occupy the landscape is also unclear. Over the last fifty years, the state's population has grown increasingly urban. Today, nearly 95 percent of Californians live in metropolitan areas, mostly at densities less than ten persons per acre. Recent growth patterns have strongly favored locations near freeways, most of which where built in the 1950s and 1960s. With few new freeways on the planning horizon, how will California's future growth organize itself in space? By national standards, California's large urban areas are already reasonably dense, and economic theory suggests that densities should increase further as California's urban regions continue to grow. In practice, densities have been rising in some urban counties, but falling in others.
These are important issues as California plans its long-term future. Will California have enough land of the appropriate types and in the right locations to accommodate its projected population growth? Will future population growth consume ever-greater amounts of irreplaceable resource lands and habitat? Will jobs continue decentralizing, pushing out the boundaries of metropolitan areas? Will development densities be sufficient to support mass transit, or will future Californians be stuck in perpetual gridlock? Will urban and resort and recreational growth in the Sierra Nevada and Trinity Mountain regions lead to the over-fragmentation of precious natural habitat? How much water will be needed by California's future industries, farms, and residents, and where will that water be stored? Where should future highway, transit, and high-speed rail facilities and rights-of-way be located? Most of all, how much will all this growth cost, both economically, and in terms of changes in California's quality of life?
Clearly, the more precise our current understanding of how and where California is likely to grow, the sooner and more inexpensively appropriate lands can be acquired for purposes of conservation, recreation, and future facility siting. Similarly, the more clearly future urbanization patterns can be anticipated, the greater our collective ability to undertake sound city, metropolitan, rural, and bioregional planning.
Consider two scenarios for the year 2100. In the first, California's population would grow to 80 million persons and would occupy the landscape at an average density of eight persons per acre, the current statewide urban average. Under this scenario, and assuming that 10% percent of California's future population growth would occur through infill-that is, on existing urban land-California's expanding urban population would consume an additional 5.06 million acres of currently undeveloped land. As an alternative, assume the share of infill development were increased to 30%, and that new population were accommodated at a density of about 12 persons per acre-which is the current average density of the City of Los Angeles. Under this second scenario, California's urban population would consume an additional 2.6 million acres of currently undeveloped land. While both scenarios accommodate the same amount of population growth and generate large increments of additional urban development-indeed, some might say even the second scenario allows far too much growth and development-the second scenario is far kinder to California's unique natural landscape.
This report presents the results of a series of baseline population and urban growth projections for California's 38 urban counties through the year 2100. Presented in map and table form, these projections are based on extrapolations of current population trends and recent urban development trends. The next section, titled Approach, outlines the methodology and data used to develop the various projections. The following section, Baseline Scenario, reviews the projections themselves. A final section, entitled Baseline Impacts, quantitatively assesses the impacts of the baseline projections on wetland, hillside, farmland and habitat loss.
According to a population projection based on 2020 Census Data, in 2040, California's population will amount to ***** million inhabitants.
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The global real estate market size was valued at approximately USD 10 trillion in 2023 and is projected to reach around USD 15 trillion by 2032, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.5%. The primary growth factor driving this market is the increasing urbanization and the growing need for residential and commercial spaces. Rapid urbanization, economic development, and increasing investments in infrastructure are contributing to this growth.
Urbanization is a key driver for the real estate market. As urban areas expand, there is a heightened demand for residential, commercial, and industrial properties. This trend is particularly noticeable in emerging economies where migration from rural to urban areas is accelerating. In addition to providing housing, urbanization necessitates the development of commercial and industrial spaces to support economic activities and provide employment opportunities. This cycle of development and demand continues to fuel the real estate market globally.
Furthermore, economic development plays a crucial role in the growth of the real estate market. As countries develop economically, there is an increase in disposable incomes, which in turn drives demand for better housing and commercial facilities. This economic growth often leads to increased investments from both domestic and international investors, further boosting the real estate market. The development of infrastructure such as roads, bridges, and public facilities also supports the growth of the real estate sector by making locations more accessible and attractive for development.
The growth of the real estate market is also supported by government initiatives and policies aimed at promoting housing and infrastructure development. Many governments around the world offer incentives such as tax benefits, subsidies, and relaxed regulations to encourage investment in the real estate sector. These policies not only stimulate the construction of new properties but also help in the renovation and improvement of existing structures. Additionally, the introduction of smart cities and sustainable development projects is creating new opportunities within the real estate market.
Real Estate Services play a pivotal role in the expansion and management of the real estate market. These services encompass a wide range of activities including property management, brokerage, appraisal, and consulting. They are essential for facilitating transactions, ensuring compliance with regulations, and maximizing the value of real estate assets. As the market grows, the demand for specialized real estate services increases, providing opportunities for companies to offer tailored solutions that meet the diverse needs of property owners, investors, and tenants. The integration of technology into real estate services is also transforming the industry, enabling more efficient and transparent processes.
Regionally, the real estate market is experiencing varied growth patterns. For instance, Asia Pacific is witnessing rapid growth due to its expanding population and increasing urbanization. North America and Europe, on the other hand, are seeing steady growth driven by economic stability and significant investments in technology and sustainability. Meanwhile, regions like Latin America and the Middle East & Africa are slowly catching up, with increasing investments in infrastructure and real estate developments. These regional dynamics play a crucial role in shaping the overall growth trajectory of the global real estate market.
The real estate market is segmented by property type into residential, commercial, industrial, and land. The residential segment is one of the most significant contributors to the market, driven by the increasing population and the growing need for housing. With urbanization on the rise, there is a continuous demand for new residential properties. This segment includes single-family homes, multi-family units, condominiums, and apartments. The trend towards nuclear families and the demand for better living standards are also contributing to the growth of the residential real estate segment.
Commercial real estate is another critical segment within the market, encompassing office spaces, retail centers, hotels, and other commercial establishments. The growth of the commercial real estate segment is closely linked to economic development, as businesses requir
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This feature set contains male population projections, by age, from Projections 2040 for the San Francisco Bay Region. This forecast represents male population projections resulting from Plan Bay Area 2040. Numbers are provided by jurisdiction (incorporated places (cities and towns) and unincorporated county lands). Male population numbers are included for 2010 (two versions), 2015, 2020, 2025, 2030, 2035, and 2040. For 2010, two data points are provided:A tabulation (base year A) from the 2010 model simulation (base year A); and(Preferred) A tabulation (base year B) from the 2010 pre-run microdata, designed to approximate (but may still differ from) Census 2010 counts.Projection data is included for male population for the following age ranges: 0-4 (under 5), 5-9, 10-14, 15-19, 20-24, 25-29, 30-34, 35-39, 40-44, 45-49, 50-54, 55-59, 60-64, 65-69, 70-74, 75-79, 80-84, and 85+ (85 and over).This feature set was assembled using unclipped jurisdiction features. For those who prefer Projections 2040 data using jurisdiction features with ocean and bay waters clipped out, the data in this feature service can be joined to San Francisco Bay Region Jurisdictions (Incorporated Places and Unincorporated County Lands) (clipped).Other Projections 2040 feature sets:Households and population per countyHouseholds and population per jurisdiction (incorporated place and unincorporated county)Households and population per Census TractJobs and employment per countyJobs and employment per jurisdiction (incorporated place and unincorporated county)Jobs per Census TractFemale population, by age range, per countyFemale population, by age range, per jurisdiction (incorporated place and unincorporated county)Male population, by age range, per countyTotal population, by age range, per countyTotal population, by age range, per jurisdiction (incorporated place and unincorporated county)
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The global city surveillance equipment market size was valued at approximately USD 10 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach around USD 25 billion by 2032, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.5% during the forecast period. This remarkable growth can be attributed to the increasing demand for enhanced public safety measures, rapid urbanization, and advancements in surveillance technology.
One of the primary growth factors driving the city surveillance equipment market is the escalating need for public safety and security across urban areas. With the rise in crime rates and terrorist activities, cities around the world are increasingly investing in advanced surveillance systems to monitor and secure public spaces. Governments are also implementing stringent regulations requiring the deployment of surveillance equipment in public areas, which further fuels market growth.
Technological advancements in surveillance equipment are another significant driver of market growth. The advent of high-definition cameras, IP-based surveillance systems, and advanced video management software has revolutionized the way city surveillance is conducted. These innovations provide better image clarity, remote accessibility, and improved storage solutions, making them indispensable for modern city surveillance. The integration of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) in surveillance systems has also enhanced their capabilities, allowing for real-time threat detection and response.
The rapid pace of urbanization, particularly in emerging economies, is also contributing to the growth of the city surveillance equipment market. As cities expand and populations increase, the need for robust surveillance systems becomes more critical. Urban development projects often include the installation of comprehensive surveillance networks to ensure the safety and security of residents. Additionally, the increasing adoption of smart city initiatives, which integrate various technologies for efficient city management, is driving the demand for advanced surveillance solutions.
The demand for Video Surveillance Equipment And Services is witnessing a significant surge as cities strive to enhance their security infrastructure. This trend is driven by the increasing need for comprehensive surveillance solutions that not only capture high-quality video footage but also offer advanced analytics and real-time monitoring capabilities. The integration of AI and machine learning technologies in video surveillance systems has further amplified their effectiveness, enabling proactive threat detection and response. As urban areas continue to expand, the requirement for robust surveillance services becomes more critical, ensuring the safety and security of public spaces and residents. This growing demand is encouraging both public and private sectors to invest in state-of-the-art video surveillance equipment and services, fostering a safer urban environment.
Regionally, Asia Pacific is expected to be the fastest-growing market for city surveillance equipment during the forecast period. The region's rapid urbanization, coupled with substantial government investments in public safety infrastructure, is driving this growth. Countries such as China, India, and Japan are leading the way with extensive surveillance projects to enhance urban security. North America and Europe also represent significant markets due to their advanced technological infrastructure and stringent security regulations.
The city surveillance equipment market is segmented by product type into cameras, video management systems, storage solutions, and others. Cameras are the most critical component of surveillance systems, providing the necessary visual data for monitoring and security purposes. The advancement in camera technology, such as high-resolution imaging, night vision, and panoramic views, has significantly enhanced their efficiency and reliability. IP-based cameras, in particular, are gaining popularity due to their ability to transmit data over networks, offering remote accessibility and scalability.
Video management systems (VMS) play an essential role in city surveillance by managing and analyzing the vast amounts of data generated by surveillance cameras. VMS solutions enable operators to monitor multiple camera feeds simultaneously, detect anoma
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Estimated GDPs by 1/12-degree grids during 1850—2100 by 10 year intervals. In the estimation, national GDP data (past data until 2010; future projection under SSPs after 2020) is downscaled considering spatial and economic interactions among cities, urban growth patterns compatible with SSPs, and other auxiliary geographic data (land cover, road network, etc.). For the estimation methods, see Murakami et al. (in prep)Murakami, D., Yoshida, Y., Yamagata, Y. (in prep) Gridded GDP projections compatible with the five SSPs (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways).
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Food trucks have seen significant growth over the last five years, cementing their position as a standout in the broad food services sector. Notably, this expansion is largely due to evolving consumer tastes shifting in favor of unique, gourmet cuisine offered at prices lower than those in traditional sit-down restaurants. The industry has thrived, with cities like Portland, LA and Austin passing regulations and establishing designated areas for this new wave of culinary delights. The industry revenue stayed resilient despite higher inflationary pressures. Therefore, industry revenue is expected to reach $2.8 billion, with an annualized growth rate of 13.2% over the five years to 2025. However, in 2025 alone, industry revenue is expected to marginally decline 0.2% due to higher tariffs that force most food truck vendors to raise their prices. Nevertheless, not all food truck industry vendors celebrate this success. City regulations, escalating competition, and minuscule profit margins are tripping up some. Food truck-specific laws are not uniform; they differ by city. These laws determine the working hours and conditions for the food trucks, often including specified distances from traditional brick-and-mortar establishments. Indeed, these restaurants often see the food trucks as direct competition and have rallied against the industry. Food trucks will still face significant challenges over the next five years. The most prominent are regulatory roadblocks, stunting industry growth. Parking and other concerns legislation remains a work in progress in many towns as they scramble to accommodate the wave of change. Nonetheless, rising household incomes and the growing interest in convenient yet affordable gourmet cuisine will fuel the industry's expansion. The projected revenue growth over the five years to 2030 is a CAGR of 0.3%, reaching $2.9 billion.
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As of 2023, the global door entry systems market size was valued at approximately USD 10 billion, with projections estimating a growth to USD 18.5 billion by 2032, reflecting a robust compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.9% over the forecast period. This growth is driven by escalating security concerns, technological advancements, and increasing urbanization, which are prompting both residential and commercial sectors to adopt more sophisticated security measures. The burgeoning demand for smart homes also acts as a catalyst, pushing the adoption of advanced door entry systems across various regions.
The primary growth factors for the door entry systems market include the increasing need for security, driven by rising urbanization and crime rates. As more people migrate to urban areas, the population density increases, leading to a heightened demand for security solutions that can ensure safety and control over property access. The technological advancements in IoT and AI are also propelling market growth, as door entry systems evolve from basic security measures to complex systems capable of integrating with broader smart home and office ecosystems. These systems now offer features such as facial recognition, remote access, and integration with other smart devices, which are becoming more appealing to tech-savvy consumers and businesses.
Another significant factor contributing to the market's growth is the increasing acceptance of cloud-based technologies, which provide scalable and cost-effective solutions to end-users. Cloud-based door entry systems allow for easier updates and maintenance, remote access, and real-time monitoring, which are particularly appealing to commercial and government sectors that require efficient and scalable security solutions. The appeal of cloud services also extends to residential users, who are increasingly looking for seamless and connected home security experiences. This shift towards cloud-based solutions is expected to continue driving market expansion in the coming years.
Furthermore, the rise of smart cities initiatives across various countries is significantly boosting the demand for advanced door entry systems. Governments and municipalities are investing heavily in smart city projects, integrating intelligent solutions for infrastructure and services, including security systems. These initiatives are fostering the deployment of sophisticated access control solutions in public and private sectors, thereby fueling the market's growth. The integration of these systems into broader urban management frameworks highlights their significance in enhancing urban living conditions and safety.
The emergence of the Keyless Door Access Control System is revolutionizing the way security is managed in both residential and commercial settings. This system eliminates the need for traditional keys, offering a more secure and convenient solution for property access. By utilizing technologies such as Bluetooth, RFID, and mobile applications, users can control access remotely, enhancing both security and user experience. The adoption of keyless systems is particularly beneficial in environments where multiple users require access, as it allows for easy management and monitoring of entry permissions. This technological advancement is not only streamlining access control but also contributing to the broader trend of smart home and office integration, where seamless connectivity and automation are becoming the norm.
From a regional outlook, North America currently holds the largest market share, driven by high adoption rates of advanced technology and a strong emphasis on security across residential and commercial sectors. However, the Asia Pacific region is anticipated to exhibit the highest growth rate during the forecast period, owing to rapid urbanization, increasing disposable income, and government initiatives towards smart city development. Europe also plays a significant role in the market, largely due to stringent regulations regarding security and privacy, which drive the demand for more sophisticated entry solutions. The Middle East & Africa and Latin America are also emerging markets, with increasing investments in infrastructure and urban development contributing to demand growth.
The door entry systems market is segmented into various product types, including audio door entry systems, video door entry systems, and access
Cities ranking and mega citiesTokyo is the world’s largest city with an agglomeration of 37 million inhabitants, followed by New Delhi with 29 million, Shanghai with 26 million, and Mexico City and São Paulo, each with around 22 million inhabitants. Today, Cairo, Mumbai, Beijing and Dhaka all have close to 20 million inhabitants. By 2020, Tokyo’s population is projected to begin to decline, while Delhi is projected to continue growing and to become the most populous city in the world around 2028.By 2030, the world is projected to have 43 megacities with more than 10 million inhabitants, most of them in developing regions. However, some of the fastest-growing urban agglomerations are cities with fewer than 1 million inhabitants, many of them located in Asia and Africa. While one in eight people live in 33 megacities worldwide, close to half of the world’s urban dwellers reside in much smaller settlements with fewer than 500,000 inhabitants.About the dataThe 2018 Revision of the World Urbanization Prospects is published by the Population Division of the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UN DESA). It has been issued regularly since 1988 with revised estimates and projections of the urban and rural populations for all countries of the world, and of their major urban agglomerations. The data set and related materials are available at: https://esa.un.org/unpd/wup/
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The global monitoring camera market size was valued at approximately $15 billion in 2023, with a forecast to reach around $35 billion by 2032, growing at a CAGR of 10%. This significant growth can be attributed to factors such as increasing security concerns, technological advancements in camera technology, and rising demand for advanced surveillance systems across various sectors. Additionally, the proliferation of smart cities and smart home initiatives worldwide is expected to drive the market further in the coming years.
One of the primary growth factors in the monitoring camera market is the increasing need for enhanced security and surveillance. With rising crime rates and security concerns in both residential and commercial spaces, the demand for advanced monitoring cameras has surged. Governments and businesses are investing heavily in surveillance systems to ensure safety and security. Moreover, the advent of smart cameras with features like facial recognition, motion detection, and night vision has further propelled the market growth. These technological advancements provide more effective monitoring solutions, thereby driving the adoption of monitoring cameras.
Another significant growth factor is the rapid development of smart cities worldwide. Governments across the globe are investing in smart city projects to improve urban infrastructure and enhance the quality of life for residents. Monitoring cameras play a crucial role in these projects by providing real-time surveillance and data collection, which helps in efficient city management. The integration of monitoring cameras with other smart city components such as traffic management systems, emergency response systems, and public safety networks further boosts their demand. As more cities adopt smart technologies, the monitoring camera market is expected to witness substantial growth.
Surveillance Cameras have become an integral part of modern security systems, serving as a critical tool for both deterrence and evidence collection. These devices are increasingly being deployed in various settings, from residential homes to large-scale industrial facilities, to enhance security measures. The evolution of surveillance cameras has seen the integration of advanced features such as high-definition video capture, night vision, and even artificial intelligence capabilities for real-time threat detection. As the technology continues to advance, surveillance cameras are expected to play an even more significant role in ensuring safety and security across different environments.
Technological advancements in camera technology have also contributed to the market's growth. The development of high-resolution cameras, such as HD, Full HD, and 4K, has significantly improved the quality of surveillance footage. Additionally, the introduction of IP cameras and hybrid systems has revolutionized the market by offering better connectivity, remote access, and integration capabilities. These advancements have made monitoring cameras more efficient and user-friendly, leading to increased adoption across various applications. As technology continues to evolve, the monitoring camera market is expected to benefit from these innovations.
From a regional perspective, the Asia Pacific region is anticipated to witness the highest growth rate during the forecast period. This can be attributed to the rapid urbanization, increasing infrastructure development, and rising security concerns in countries like China, India, and Japan. North America and Europe also hold significant market shares due to the presence of prominent market players and advanced technological infrastructure. The Middle East & Africa and Latin America regions are expected to experience moderate growth, driven by economic development and increasing investments in security and surveillance systems.
The monitoring camera market can be segmented by product type into dome cameras, bullet cameras, box cameras, PTZ (Pan-Tilt-Zoom) cameras, and others. Dome cameras are widely used due to their versatility and discreet design. They are suitable for both indoor and outdoor applications, making them a popular choice for residential, commercial, and industrial settings. The robust construction and vandal-resistant features of dome cameras also contribute to their widespread adoption, particularly in high-risk areas.
Bullet cameras, known for the
The fastest growing city in Africa is Bujumbura, in Burundi. In 2020, this city had an estimated population of about one million. By 2035, the population of Bujumbura could increase by 123 percent and reach roughly 2.3 million people. Zinder, in Niger, had about half million inhabitants in 2020 and, with a growth rate of 118 percent, is Africa's second fastest growing city. In 2035, Zinder could have over one million residents.
As of 2021, the largest city in whole Africa is Lagos, in Nigeria. Other highly populated cities in Africa are Kinshasa, in Congo, Cairo, and Alexandria, both located in Egypt.
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Chart and table of population level and growth rate for the Atlanta metro area from 1950 to 2025.
Unadjusted decennial census data from 1950-2000 and projected figures from 2010-2040: summary table of New York City population numbers and percentage share by Borough, including school-age (5 to 17), 65 and Over, and total population.
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Chart and table of population level and growth rate for the Chicago metro area from 1950 to 2025.
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The global dark store market is poised for significant growth over the next decade, with a projected market size of $19.86 billion by 2033, expanding at a CAGR of 36.6% from 2025 to 2033. This growth is driven by factors such as the rise of e-commerce, the increasing popularity of online grocery shopping, and the need for efficient and convenient fulfillment solutions. Major players in the market include Amazon.com Inc., Auchan, Dunzo Digital Private Limited, Flipkart Private Limited, Instacart, Swiggy, Target Corporation, and Walmart Inc., among others. The growth of the dark store market is also being fueled by the increasing adoption of innovative technologies such as artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML). These technologies are being used to optimize inventory management, improve order fulfillment accuracy, and enhance the overall customer experience. Additionally, the expansion of dark stores into new regions, such as Latin America and the Middle East, is also contributing to the market growth. Despite the positive outlook, the market is expected to face certain restraints, including high operating costs, competition from traditional brick-and-mortar stores, and regulatory challenges. However, ongoing innovation and collaborations between dark store operators and technology providers are expected to mitigate these challenges and drive continued growth in the market. Recent developments include: In August 2024, Blinkit, a subsidiary of Zomato Ltd. announced to open 2,000 dark stores by end of 2026 within top ten cities in India. The new dark stores would help the company to expand its presence primarily in top cities. , In July 2024, Flipkart Private Limited is planning to open 100 dark stores in India for Flipkart Minutes service. Through the service the company will deliver vegetables, groceries, fruits, and electronics in 10-15 minutes. .
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BackgroundClimate change is likely to further worsen ozone pollution in already heavily polluted areas, leading to increased ozone-related health burdens. However, little evidence exists in China, the world’s largest greenhouse gas emitter and most populated country. As China is embracing an aging population with changing population size and falling age-standardized mortality rates, the potential impact of population change on ozone-related health burdens is unclear. Moreover, little is known about the seasonal variation of ozone-related health burdens under climate change. We aimed to assess near-term (mid-21st century) future annual and seasonal excess mortality from short-term exposure to ambient ozone in 104 Chinese cities under 2 climate and emission change scenarios and 6 population change scenarios.Methods and findingsWe collected historical ambient ozone observations, population change projections, and baseline mortality rates in 104 cities across China during April 27, 2013, to October 31, 2015 (2013–2015), which included approximately 13% of the total population of mainland China. Using historical ozone monitoring data, we performed bias correction and spatially downscaled future ozone projections at a coarse spatial resolution (2.0° × 2.5°) for the period April 27, 2053, to October 31, 2055 (2053–2055), from a global chemistry–climate model to a fine spatial resolution (0.25° × 0.25°) under 2 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs): RCP4.5, a moderate global warming and emission scenario where global warming is between 1.5°C and 2.0°C, and RCP8.5, a high global warming and emission scenario where global warming exceeds 2.0°C. We then estimated the future annual and seasonal ozone-related acute excess mortality attributable to both climate and population changes using cause-specific, age-group-specific, and season-specific concentration–response functions (CRFs). We used Monte Carlo simulations to obtain empirical confidence intervals (eCIs), quantifying the uncertainty in CRFs and the variability across ensemble members (i.e., 3 predictions of future climate and air quality from slightly different starting conditions) of the global model. Estimates of future changes in annual ozone-related mortality are sensitive to the choice of global warming and emission scenario, decreasing under RCP4.5 (−24.0%) due to declining ozone precursor emissions but increasing under RCP8.5 (10.7%) due to warming climate in 2053–2055 relative to 2013–2015. Higher ambient ozone occurs under the high global warming and emission scenario (RCP8.5), leading to an excess 1,476 (95% eCI: 898 to 2,977) non-accidental deaths per year in 2053–2055 relative to 2013–2015. Future ozone-related acute excess mortality from cardiovascular diseases was 5–8 times greater than that from respiratory diseases. Ozone concentrations increase by 15.1 parts per billion (10−9) in colder months (November to April), contributing to a net yearly increase of 22.3% (95% eCI: 7.7% to 35.4%) in ozone-related mortality under RCP8.5. An aging population, with the proportion of the population aged 65 years and above increased from 8% in 2010 to 24%–33% in 2050, will substantially amplify future ozone-related mortality, leading to a net increase of 23,838 to 78,560 deaths (110% to 363%). Our analysis was mainly limited by using a single global chemistry–climate model and the statistical downscaling approach to project ozone changes under climate change.ConclusionsOur analysis shows increased future ozone-related acute excess mortality under the high global warming and emission scenario RCP8.5 for an aging population in China. Comparison with the lower global warming and emission scenario RCP4.5 suggests that climate change mitigation measures are needed to prevent a rising health burden from exposure to ambient ozone pollution in China.
Cities ranking and mega citiesTokyo is the world’s largest city with an agglomeration of 37 million inhabitants, followed by New Delhi with 29 million, Shanghai with 26 million, and Mexico City and São Paulo, each with around 22 million inhabitants. Today, Cairo, Mumbai, Beijing and Dhaka all have close to 20 million inhabitants. By 2020, Tokyo’s population is projected to begin to decline, while Delhi is projected to continue growing and to become the most populous city in the world around 2028.By 2030, the world is projected to have 43 megacities with more than 10 million inhabitants, most of them in developing regions. However, some of the fastest-growing urban agglomerations are cities with fewer than 1 million inhabitants, many of them located in Asia and Africa. While one in eight people live in 33 megacities worldwide, close to half of the world’s urban dwellers reside in much smaller settlements with fewer than 500,000 inhabitants.About the dataThe 2018 Revision of the World Urbanization Prospects is published by the Population Division of the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UN DESA). It has been issued regularly since 1988 with revised estimates and projections of the urban and rural populations for all countries of the world, and of their major urban agglomerations. The data set and related materials are available at: https://esa.un.org/unpd/wup/
This statistic shows the population growth rate of the top twenty largest urban agglomerations in the United States from 2000 to 2030. Between 2025 and 2030, the average annual population growth rate of the New York-Newark agglomeration is projected to be roughly **** percent.