In 2024, Miami was the housing market most at risk, with a real estate bubble index score of 1.79. Tokyo and Zurich followed close behind with 1.67 and 1.51, respectively. Any market with an index score of 1.5 or higher was deemed to be a bubble risk zone.

Home prices in the U.S. reach new heights The American housing market continues to show remarkable resilience, with the S&P/Case Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index reaching an all-time high of 325.78 in July 2024. This figure represents a significant increase from the index value of 166.24 recorded in January 2015, highlighting the substantial growth in home prices over the past decade. The S&P Case Shiller National Home Price Index is based on the prices of single-family homes and is the leading indicator of the American housing market and one of the indicators of the state of the broader economy. The S&P Case Shiller National Home Price Index series also includes S&P/Case Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price Index and S&P/Case Shiller 10-City Composite Home Price Index – measuring the home price changes in the major U.S. metropolitan areas, as well as twenty composite indices for the leading U.S. cities. Market fluctuations and recovery Despite the overall upward trend, the housing market has experienced some fluctuations in recent years. During the housing boom in 2021, the number of existing home sales reached the highest level since 2006. However, transaction volumes quickly plummeted, as the soaring interest rates and out-of-reach prices led to housing sentiment deteriorating. Factors influencing home prices Several factors have contributed to the rise in home prices, including a chronic supply shortage, the gradual decline in interest rates, and the spike in demand during the COVID-19 pandemic. During the subprime mortgage crisis (2007-2010), the construction of new homes declined dramatically. Although it has gradually increased since then, the number of new building permits, home starts, and completions are still shy from the levels before the crisis. With demand outweighing supply, competition for homes can be fierce, leading to bidding wars and soaring prices. The supply of existing homes is further constrained, as homeowners are less likely to sell and move homes due to the worsened lending conditions.

Portugal, Canada, and the United States were the countries with the highest house price to income ratio in 2023. In all three countries, the index exceeded 130 index points, while the average for all OECD countries stood at 117.5 index points. The index measures the development of housing affordability and is calculated by dividing nominal house price by nominal disposable income per head, with 2015 set as a base year when the index amounted to 100. An index value of 120, for example, would mean that house price growth has outpaced income growth by 20 percent since 2015. How have house prices worldwide changed since the COVID-19 pandemic? House prices started to rise gradually after the global financial crisis (2007–2008), but this trend accelerated with the pandemic. The countries with advanced economies, which usually have mature housing markets, experienced stronger growth than countries with emerging economies. Real house price growth (accounting for inflation) peaked in 2022 and has since lost some of the gain. Although, many countries experienced a decline in house prices, the global house price index shows that property prices in 2023 were still substantially higher than before COVID-19. Renting vs. buying In the past, house prices have grown faster than rents. However, the home affordability has been declining notably, with a direct impact on rental prices. As people struggle to buy a property of their own, they often turn to rental accommodation. This has resulted in a growing demand for rental apartments and soaring rental prices.

Australia’s real house price index reached 122.9 in the third quarter of 2024, continuing the upward trend since the second quarter of 2023. House prices fluctuated over the reported period compared to the base year of 2015, experiencing a sharp increase throughout 2021, with the country’s house price index peaking in the first quarter of 2022 at 130.9. Prospective homeowners priced out of the market Recent house price increases reflect the ongoing challenges of housing affordability in Australia. Property prices largely outpace income growth, reigniting discussions about whether the country is stuck in a property bubble, a topic that has been debated for over a decade. The country’s house price-to-income ratio exceeded 122 in the third quarter of 2024, the highest ratio recorded over the past five years, making it increasingly difficult to get on the property ladder. Unaffordable rental conditions Australia’s rental market has also seen challenges, with the rent price index continuing to climb throughout 2024, making the prospect of renting less appealing. As of September 2024, the average weekly house rent price in Sydney stood at 775 Australian dollars, the highest across the country’s major cities. Canberra, Darwin, and Perth were the next most expensive markets for house rents, while Hobart was the most affordable capital city for both house and unit rent prices.

In 2023, the average price of real estate in China was approximately 10,438 yuan per square meter, representing a decrease from the previous year. Rising prices in the real estate market Since the 1998 housing reform, property prices in China have been rising continuously. Housing in the country is now often unaffordable, especially considering the modest per capita income of Chinese households. Shanghai and Beijing even have some of the most competitive real estate markets in the world. The rapid growth in housing prices has increased wealth among homeowners, while it also led to a culture of speculation among buyers and real estate developers. Housing was treated as investments, with owners expecting the prices to grow further every year. Risk factors The expectation of a steadily growing real estate market has created a property bubble and a potential debt crisis. As Chinese real estate giants, such as China Evergrande and Country Garden, operate by continuously acquiring land plots and initiating new projects, which often require substantial loans and investments, a slowdown in property demands or a decline in home prices can significantly affect the financial situation of these companies, putting China’s banks in a vulnerable position. In addition, due to a lack of regulations and monetary constraints, the long-term maintenance issues of high-rise apartments are also a concern to the sustainable development of China’s cities.

Some of the 21 districts of Spain’s capital city are well far off the 2,800 euros per square meter that Spaniards had to pay on average to purchase a home in 2023. The Spanish capital is home to some of the wealthiest districts of Spain, such as the historic Salamanca district, which topped the list at almost 7,000 euros per square meter. Rents in SpainWhilst Madrid’s districts had the highest prices for residential real estate, the Spanish capital was not the most expensive place to rent. Ibiza topped the list of the least affordable properties to rent, with households hypothetically requiring over 162 percent of their full income to pay off the rent. Located in the Andalusian province of Malaga, Marbella ranked second on the list, with over 156 percent of the full household income. Spain: the rebirth of a property marketAfter a long period of time in which Spain’s real estate prices increased sharply, the market was hit by the global financial crisis of 2007, making the Spanish property bubble collapse and damaging home value. It can be seen that real estate prices in Spain initiated a solid recovery in 2015, reaching 131.9 house price index points in 2021 from a lowest point of 96.27 index points recorded in 2013. The property market has made great progress, but it is still far off the rest of its European counterparts, and it is positioned, in fact, at the bottom of the European list of the EMF’s house price index, which is led by Czechia.

According to the forecast, the North East and Wales are the regions in the United Kingdom estimated to see the highest overall growth in house prices over the five-year period between 2024 and 2028. Just behind are North West, Yorkshire & the Humber, and Scotland, which are forecast to see house prices increase by 20.2 percent over the five-year period. In London, house prices are expected to rise by 13.9 percent.