Mogadishu in Somalia led the ranking of cities with the highest population density in 2023, with 33,244 residents per square kilometer. When it comes to countries, Monaco is the most populated state worldwide.

Monaco led the ranking for countries with the highest population density in 2024, with nearly 26,000 residents per square kilometer. The Special Administrative Region Macao came in second, followed by Singapore. The world’s second smallest country Monaco is the world’s second smallest country, with an area of about two square kilometers, and its population only numbers around 40,000. It is a constitutional monarchy located by the Mediterranean Sea, and while Monaco is not part of the European Union, it does participate in some EU policies. The country is perhaps most famous for the Monte Carlo casino and for hosting the Monaco Grand Prix, the world's most prestigious Formula One race. The global population Globally, the population density per square kilometer stands at about 60 inhabitants, and Asia is the most densely populated region in the world. The global population is increasing rapidly, so population density is only expected to increase as well. In 1950, for example, the global population stood at about 2.54 billion people, and it reached over eight billion during 2023.

As of July 2022, Monaco is the country with the highest population density worldwide with an estimated population of nearly 24,500 per square kilometer. However, by 2050, it is expected to be overtaken by the Special Administrative Region of Macao.

As of 2023, the top five most densely populated cities in Latin America and the Caribbean were in Colombia. The capital, Bogotá, ranked first with over 18,241 inhabitants per square kilometer.

Census data reveals that population density varies noticeably from area to area. Small area census data do a better job depicting where the crowded neighborhoods are. In this map, the yellow areas of highest density range from 30,000 to 150,000 persons per square kilometer. In those areas, if the people were spread out evenly across the area, there would be just 4 to 9 meters between them. Very high density areas exceed 7,000 persons per square kilometer. High density areas exceed 5,200 persons per square kilometer. The last categories break at 3,330 persons per square kilometer, and 1,500 persons per square kilometer.This dataset is comprised of multiple sources. All of the demographic data are from Michael Bauer Research with the exception of the following countries:Australia: Esri Australia and MapData ServicesCanada: Esri Canada and EnvironicsFrance: Esri FranceGermany: Esri Germany and NexigaIndia: Esri India and IndicusJapan: Esri JapanSouth Korea: Esri Korea and OPENmateSpain: Esri España and AISUnited States: Esri Demographics

In 2023, Washington, D.C. had the highest population density in the United States, with 11,130.69 people per square mile. As a whole, there were about 94.83 residents per square mile in the U.S., and Alaska was the state with the lowest population density, with 1.29 residents per square mile. The problem of population density Simply put, population density is the population of a country divided by the area of the country. While this can be an interesting measure of how many people live in a country and how large the country is, it does not account for the degree of urbanization, or the share of people who live in urban centers. For example, Russia is the largest country in the world and has a comparatively low population, so its population density is very low. However, much of the country is uninhabited, so cities in Russia are much more densely populated than the rest of the country. Urbanization in the United States While the United States is not very densely populated compared to other countries, its population density has increased significantly over the past few decades. The degree of urbanization has also increased, and well over half of the population lives in urban centers.

Netherlands NL: Population Density: People per Square Km data was reported at 508.544 Person/sq km in 2017. This records an increase from the previous number of 505.501 Person/sq km for 2016. Netherlands NL: Population Density: People per Square Km data is updated yearly, averaging 439.837 Person/sq km from Dec 1961 (Median) to 2017, with 57 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 508.544 Person/sq km in 2017 and a record low of 344.749 Person/sq km in 1961. Netherlands NL: Population Density: People per Square Km data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by World Bank. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Netherlands – Table NL.World Bank.WDI: Population and Urbanization Statistics. Population density is midyear population divided by land area in square kilometers. Population is based on the de facto definition of population, which counts all residents regardless of legal status or citizenship--except for refugees not permanently settled in the country of asylum, who are generally considered part of the population of their country of origin. Land area is a country's total area, excluding area under inland water bodies, national claims to continental shelf, and exclusive economic zones. In most cases the definition of inland water bodies includes major rivers and lakes.; ; Food and Agriculture Organization and World Bank population estimates.; Weighted average;

Australia Population Density: People per Square Km data was reported at 3.382 Person/sq km in 2022. This records an increase from the previous number of 3.339 Person/sq km for 2021. Australia Population Density: People per Square Km data is updated yearly, averaging 2.263 Person/sq km from Dec 1961 (Median) to 2022, with 62 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 3.382 Person/sq km in 2022 and a record low of 1.365 Person/sq km in 1961. Australia Population Density: People per Square Km data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by World Bank. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Australia – Table AU.World Bank.WDI: Population and Urbanization Statistics. Population density is midyear population divided by land area in square kilometers. Population is based on the de facto definition of population, which counts all residents regardless of legal status or citizenship--except for refugees not permanently settled in the country of asylum, who are generally considered part of the population of their country of origin. Land area is a country's total area, excluding area under inland water bodies, national claims to continental shelf, and exclusive economic zones. In most cases the definition of inland water bodies includes major rivers and lakes.;Food and Agriculture Organization and World Bank population estimates.;Weighted average;

In 2022, the estimated population density of China was around 150.42 people per square kilometer. That year, China's population size declined for the first time in decades. Although China is the most populous country in the world, its overall population density is not much higher than the average population density in Asia. Uneven population distribution China is one of the largest countries in terms of land area, and its population density figures vary dramatically from region to region. Overall, the coastal regions in the East and Southeast have the highest population densities, as they belong to the more economically developed regions of the country. These coastal regions also have a higher urbanization rate. On the contrary, the regions in the West are covered with mountain landscapes which are not suitable for the development of big cities. Populous cities in China Several Chinese cities rank among the most populous cities in the world. According to estimates, Beijing and Shanghai will rank among the top ten megacities in the world by 2030. Both cities are also the largest Chinese cities in terms of land area. The previous colonial regions, Macao and Hong Kong, are two of the most densely populated cities in the world.

Disclaimer: These data are updated by the author and are not an official product of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.This project provides two sets of migration estimates for the major US metro areas. The first series measures net migration of people to and from the urban neighborhoods of the metro areas. The second series covers all neighborhoods but breaks down net migration to other regions by four region types: (1) high-cost metros, (2) affordable, large metros, (3) midsized metros, and (4) small metros and rural areas. These series were introduced in a Cleveland Fed District Data Brief entitled “Urban and Regional Migration Estimates: Will Your City Recover from the Pandemic?"The migration estimates in this project are created with data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York/Equifax Consumer Credit Panel (CCP). The CCP is a 5 percent random sample of the credit histories maintained by Equifax. The CCP reports the census block of residence for over 10 million individuals each quarter. Each month, Equifax receives individuals’ addresses, along with reports of debt balances and payments, from creditors (mortgage lenders, credit card issuers, student loan servicers, etc.). An algorithm maintained by Equifax considers all of the addresses reported for an individual and identifies the individual’s most likely current address. Equifax anonymizes the data before they are added to the CCP, removing names, addresses, and Social Security numbers (SSNs). In lieu of mailing addresses, the census block of the address is added to the CCP. Equifax creates a unique, anonymous identifier to enable researchers to build individuals’ panels. The panel nature of the data allows us to observe when someone has migrated and is living in a census block different from the one they lived in at the end of the preceding quarter. For more details about the CCP and its use in measuring migration, see Lee and Van der Klaauw (2010) and DeWaard, Johnson and Whitaker (2019). DefinitionsMetropolitan areaThe metropolitan areas in these data are combined statistical areas. This is the most aggregate definition of metro areas, and it combines Washington DC with Baltimore, San Jose with San Francisco, Akron with Cleveland, etc. Metro areas are combinations of counties that are tightly linked by worker commutes and other economic activity. All counties outside of metropolitan areas are tracked as parts of a rural commuting zone (CZ). CZs are also groups of counties linked by commuting, but CZ definitions cover all counties, both metropolitan and non-metropolitan. High-cost metropolitan areasHigh-cost metro areas are those where the median list price for a house was more than $200 per square foot on average between April 2017 and April 2022. These areas include San Francisco-San Jose, New York, San Diego, Los Angeles, Seattle, Boston, Miami, Sacramento, Denver, Salt Lake City, Portland, and Washington-Baltimore. Other Types of RegionsMetro areas with populations above 2 million and house price averages below $200 per square foot are categorized as affordable, large metros. Metro areas with populations between 500,000 and 2 million are categorized as mid-sized metros, regardless of house prices. All remaining counties are in the small metro and rural category.To obtain a metro area's total net migration, sum the four net migration values for the the four types of regions.Urban neighborhoodCensus tracts are designated as urban if they have a population density above 7,000 people per square mile. High density neighborhoods can support walkable retail districts and high-frequency public transportation. They are more likely to have the “street life” that people associate with living in an urban rather than a suburban area. The threshold of 7,000 people per square mile was selected because it was the average density in the largest US cities in the 1930 census. Before World War II, workplaces, shopping, schools and parks had to be accessible on foot. Tracts are also designated as urban if more than half of their housing units were built before WWII and they have a population density above 2,000 people per square mile. The lower population density threshold for the pre-war neighborhoods recognizes that many urban tracts have lost population since the 1960s. While the street grids usually remain, the area also needs su

The majority of the Canadian population, about 60% is concentrated within a thin belt of land representing 2.2% of the land between Windsor, Ontario and Quebec City. Even though Canada is the second largest country in the world in terms of land area, it only ranks 33rd in terms of population. The agricultural areas in the Prairies and eastern Canada have higher population densities than the sparsely populated North, but not as high as southern Ontario or southern Quebec.

Important Note: This item is in mature support as of June 2023 and will retire in December 2025. A new version of this item is available for your use.The layers going from 1:1 to 1:1.5M present the 2010 Census Urbanized Areas (UA) and Urban Clusters (UC). A UA consists of contiguous, densely settled census block groups (BGs) and census blocks that meet minimum population density requirements (1000 people per square mile (ppsm) / 500 ppsm), along with adjacent densely settled census blocks that together encompass a population of at least 50,000 people. A UC consists of contiguous, densely settled census BGs and census blocks that meet minimum population density requirements, along with adjacent densely settled census blocks that together encompass a population of at least 2,500 people, but fewer than 50,000 people. The dataset covers the 50 States plus the District of Columbia within United States. The layer going over 1:1.5M presents the urban areas in the United States derived from the urban areas layer of the Digital Chart of the World (DCW). It provides information about the locations, names, and populations of urbanized areas for conducting geographic analysis on national and large regional scales. To download the data for this layer as a layer package for use in ArcGIS desktop applications, refer to USA Census Urban Areas.

The Global Human Footprint dataset of the Last of the Wild Project, version 2, 2005 (LWPv2) is the Human Influence Index (HII) normalized by biome and realm. The HII is a global dataset of 1 km grid cells, created from nine global data layers covering human population pressure (population density), human land use and infraestructure (built-up areas, nighttime lights, land use/land cover) and human access (coastlines, roads, navigable rivers).The Human Footprint Index (HF) map, expresses as a percentage the relative human influence in each terrestrial biome. HF values from 0 to 100. A value of zero represents the least influence -the "most wild" part of the biome with value of 100 representing the most influence (least wild) part of the biome.

Philippines Population Density: NCR: City of Muntinlupa data was reported at 12,692.000 Person/sq km in 2015. This records an increase from the previous number of 11,571.000 Person/sq km for 2010. Philippines Population Density: NCR: City of Muntinlupa data is updated yearly, averaging 9,800.500 Person/sq km from Dec 1975 (Median) to 2015, with 8 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 12,692.000 Person/sq km in 2015 and a record low of 2,375.955 Person/sq km in 1975. Philippines Population Density: NCR: City of Muntinlupa data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Philippine Statistics Authority. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Philippines – Table PH.G005: Population Density.

Social and economic figures for 67 large West German cities. The data aggregated at city level have been collected for most topics over several years, but not necessarily over the entire reference time period.

Topics: 1. Situation of the city: surface area of the city; fringe location in the Federal Republic.

1. Residential population: total residential population; German and foreign residential population.

2. Population movement:live births; deaths; influx; departures; birth rate; death rate; population shifts; divorce rate; migration rate; illegitimate births.

3. Education figures: school degrees; occupational degrees; university degrees.

4. Wage and income: number of taxpayers in the various tax classes as well as municipality income tax revenue in the respective classes; calculated income figures, such as e.g. inequality of income distribution, mean income or mean wage of employees as well as standard deviation of these figures; GINI index.

5. Gross domestic product and gross product: gross product altogether; gross product organized according to area of business; gross domestic product; employees in the economic sectors.

6. Taxes and debts: debt per resident; income tax and business tax to which the municipality is entitled; municipality tax potential and indicators for municipality economic strength.

7. Debt repayment and management expenditures: debt repayment, interest expenditures, management expenditures and personnel expenditures.

8. From the ´BUNTE´ City Test of 1979 based on 100 respondents per city averages of satisfaction were calculated. satisfaction with: central location of the city, the number of green areas, historical buildings, the number of high-rises, the variety of the citizens, openness to the world, the dialect spoken, the sociability, the density of the traffic network, the OEPNV prices {local public passenger transport}, the supply of public transportation, provision with culture, the selection for consumers, the climate, clean air, noise pollution, the leisure selection, real estate prices, the supply of residences, one´s own payment, the job market selection, the distance from work, the number of one´s friends, contact opportunities, receptiveness of the neighbors, local recreational areas, sport opportunities and the selection of further education possibilities.

9. Traffic and economy: airport and Intercity connection; number of kilometers of subway available, kilometers of streetcar, and kilometers of bus lines per resident; car rate; index of traffic quality; commuters; property prices; prices for one´s own home; purchasing power.

10. Crime: recorded total crime and classification according to armed robbery, theft from living-rooms, of automobiles as well as from motor vehicles, robberies and purse snatching; classification according to young or adult suspects with these crimes; crime stress figures. 12. Welfare: welfare recipients and social expenditures; proportion of welfare recipients in the total population and classification according to German and foreign recipients; aid with livelihood; expenditures according to the youth welfare law; kindergarten openings; culture expenditures per resident. 13. Foreigners: proportion of foreigners in the residential population.

11. Students: number of German students and total number of students; proportion of students in the residential population.

12. Unemployed: unemployment rate; unemployed according to employment office districts and employment office departments.

13. Places of work: workers employed in companies, organized according to area of business.

14. Government employees: full-time, part-time and total government employees of federal government, states and municipalities as well as differentiated according to workers, employees, civil servants and judges.

15. Employees covered by social security according to education and branch of economy: proportion of various education levels in the individual branches of the economy.

As of 2023, Tokyo-Yokohama in Japan was the largest world urban agglomeration, with 37,8 million people living there. Jakarta ranked second with 34 million, with Delhi in third with 32 million inhabitants.

Philippines Population Density: NCR: City of Manila data was reported at 71,263.000 Person/sq km in 2015. This records an increase from the previous number of 66,140.000 Person/sq km for 2010. Philippines Population Density: NCR: City of Manila data is updated yearly, averaging 65,706.000 Person/sq km from Dec 1975 (Median) to 2015, with 8 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 71,263.000 Person/sq km in 2015 and a record low of 59,164.640 Person/sq km in 1975. Philippines Population Density: NCR: City of Manila data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Philippine Statistics Authority. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Philippines – Table PH.G005: Population Density.

IntroductionClimate Central’s Surging Seas: Risk Zone map shows areas vulnerable to near-term flooding from different combinations of sea level rise, storm surge, tides, and tsunamis, or to permanent submersion by long-term sea level rise. Within the U.S., it incorporates the latest, high-resolution, high-accuracy lidar elevation data supplied by NOAA (exceptions: see Sources), displays points of interest, and contains layers displaying social vulnerability, population density, and property value. Outside the U.S., it utilizes satellite-based elevation data from NASA in some locations, and Climate Central’s more accurate CoastalDEM in others (see Methods and Qualifiers). It provides the ability to search by location name or postal code.The accompanying Risk Finder is an interactive data toolkit available for some countries that provides local projections and assessments of exposure to sea level rise and coastal flooding tabulated for many sub-national districts, down to cities and postal codes in the U.S. Exposure assessments always include land and population, and in the U.S. extend to over 100 demographic, economic, infrastructure and environmental variables using data drawn mainly from federal sources, including NOAA, USGS, FEMA, DOT, DOE, DOI, EPA, FCC and the Census.This web tool was highlighted at the launch of The White House's Climate Data Initiative in March 2014. Climate Central's original Surging Seas was featured on NBC, CBS, and PBS U.S. national news, the cover of The New York Times, in hundreds of other stories, and in testimony for the U.S. Senate. The Atlantic Cities named it the most important map of 2012. Both the Risk Zone map and the Risk Finder are grounded in peer-reviewed science.Back to topMethods and QualifiersThis map is based on analysis of digital elevation models mosaicked together for near-total coverage of the global coast. Details and sources for U.S. and international data are below. Elevations are transformed so they are expressed relative to local high tide lines (Mean Higher High Water, or MHHW). A simple elevation threshold-based “bathtub method” is then applied to determine areas below different water levels, relative to MHHW. Within the U.S., areas below the selected water level but apparently not connected to the ocean at that level are shown in a stippled green (as opposed to solid blue) on the map. Outside the U.S., due to data quality issues and data limitations, all areas below the selected level are shown as solid blue, unless separated from the ocean by a ridge at least 20 meters (66 feet) above MHHW, in which case they are shown as not affected (no blue).Areas using lidar-based elevation data: U.S. coastal states except AlaskaElevation data used for parts of this map within the U.S. come almost entirely from ~5-meter horizontal resolution digital elevation models curated and distributed by NOAA in its Coastal Lidar collection, derived from high-accuracy laser-rangefinding measurements. The same data are used in NOAA’s Sea Level Rise Viewer. (High-resolution elevation data for Louisiana, southeast Virginia, and limited other areas comes from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)). Areas using CoastalDEM™ elevation data: Antigua and Barbuda, Barbados, Corn Island (Nicaragua), Dominica, Dominican Republic, Grenada, Guyana, Haiti, Jamaica, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, San Blas (Panama), Suriname, The Bahamas, Trinidad and Tobago. CoastalDEM™ is a proprietary high-accuracy bare earth elevation dataset developed especially for low-lying coastal areas by Climate Central. Use our contact form to request more information.Warning for areas using other elevation data (all other areas)Areas of this map not listed above use elevation data on a roughly 90-meter horizontal resolution grid derived from NASA’s Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM). SRTM provides surface elevations, not bare earth elevations, causing it to commonly overestimate elevations, especially in areas with dense and tall buildings or vegetation. Therefore, the map under-portrays areas that could be submerged at each water level, and exposure is greater than shown (Kulp and Strauss, 2016). However, SRTM includes error in both directions, so some areas showing exposure may not be at risk.SRTM data do not cover latitudes farther north than 60 degrees or farther south than 56 degrees, meaning that sparsely populated parts of Arctic Circle nations are not mapped here, and may show visual artifacts.Areas of this map in Alaska use elevation data on a roughly 60-meter horizontal resolution grid supplied by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). This data is referenced to a vertical reference frame from 1929, based on historic sea levels, and with no established conversion to modern reference frames. The data also do not take into account subsequent land uplift and subsidence, widespread in the state. As a consequence, low confidence should be placed in Alaska map portions.Flood control structures (U.S.)Levees, walls, dams or other features may protect some areas, especially at lower elevations. Levees and other flood control structures are included in this map within but not outside of the U.S., due to poor and missing data. Within the U.S., data limitations, such as an incomplete inventory of levees, and a lack of levee height data, still make assessing protection difficult. For this map, levees are assumed high and strong enough for flood protection. However, it is important to note that only 8% of monitored levees in the U.S. are rated in “Acceptable” condition (ASCE). Also note that the map implicitly includes unmapped levees and their heights, if broad enough to be effectively captured directly by the elevation data.For more information on how Surging Seas incorporates levees and elevation data in Louisiana, view our Louisiana levees and DEMs methods PDF. For more information on how Surging Seas incorporates dams in Massachusetts, view the Surging Seas column of the web tools comparison matrix for Massachusetts.ErrorErrors or omissions in elevation or levee data may lead to areas being misclassified. Furthermore, this analysis does not account for future erosion, marsh migration, or construction. As is general best practice, local detail should be verified with a site visit. Sites located in zones below a given water level may or may not be subject to flooding at that level, and sites shown as isolated may or may not be be so. Areas may be connected to water via porous bedrock geology, and also may also be connected via channels, holes, or passages for drainage that the elevation data fails to or cannot pick up. In addition, sea level rise may cause problems even in isolated low zones during rainstorms by inhibiting drainage.ConnectivityAt any water height, there will be isolated, low-lying areas whose elevation falls below the water level, but are protected from coastal flooding by either man-made flood control structures (such as levees), or the natural topography of the surrounding land. In areas using lidar-based elevation data or CoastalDEM (see above), elevation data is accurate enough that non-connected areas can be clearly identified and treated separately in analysis (these areas are colored green on the map). In the U.S., levee data are complete enough to factor levees into determining connectivity as well.However, in other areas, elevation data is much less accurate, and noisy error often produces “speckled” artifacts in the flood maps, commonly in areas that should show complete inundation. Removing non-connected areas in these places could greatly underestimate the potential for flood exposure. For this reason, in these regions, the only areas removed from the map and excluded from analysis are separated from the ocean by a ridge of at least 20 meters (66 feet) above the local high tide line, according to the data, so coastal flooding would almost certainly be impossible (e.g., the Caspian Sea region).Back to topData LayersWater Level | Projections | Legend | Social Vulnerability | Population | Ethnicity | Income | Property | LandmarksWater LevelWater level means feet or meters above the local high tide line (“Mean Higher High Water”) instead of standard elevation. Methods described above explain how each map is generated based on a selected water level. Water can reach different levels in different time frames through combinations of sea level rise, tide and storm surge. Tide gauges shown on the map show related projections (see just below).The highest water levels on this map (10, 20 and 30 meters) provide reference points for possible flood risk from tsunamis, in regions prone to them.

In 2024, approximately 22.81 million people lived in the São Paulo metropolitan area, making it the biggest in Latin America and the Caribbean and the fifth most populated in the world. The homonymous state of São Paulo was also the most populous federal entity in the country. The second place for the region was Mexico City with 22.51 million inhabitants.

Brazil's cities

Brazil is home to two large metropolises, only counting the population within the city limits, São Paulo had approximately 12.4 million inhabitants, and Rio de Janeiro around 6.8 million inhabitants. It also contains a number of smaller, but well known cities such as Brasília, Salvador, Belo Horizonte and many others, which report between 2 and 3 million inhabitants each. As a result, the country's population is primarily urban, with nearly 85 percent of inhabitants living in cities.

Mexico City

Mexico City's metropolitan area ranks fifth in the ranking of most populated cities in the world. Founded over the Aztec city of Tenochtitlan in 1521 after the Spanish conquest as the capital of the Viceroyalty of New Spain, the city still stands as one of the most important in Latin America. Nevertheless, the preeminent economic, political, and cultural position of Mexico City has not prevented the metropolis from suffering the problems affecting the rest of the country, namely, inequality and violence. Only in 2021, the city registered a crime incidence of 45,336 reported cases for every 100,000 inhabitants and around 32 percent of the population lived under the poverty line.

Background

The world is rapidly becoming urban with the global population living in cities projected to double by 2050. This increase in urbanization poses new challenges for the spread and control of communicable diseases such as malaria. In particular, urban environments create highly heterogeneous socio-economic and environmental conditions that can affect the transmission of vector-borne diseases dependent on human water storage and waste water management. Interestingly India, as opposed to Africa, harbors a mosquito vector, Anopheles stephensi, which thrives in the man-made environments of cities and acts as the vector for both Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum, making the malaria problem a truly urban phenomenon. Here we address the role and determinants of within-city spatial heterogeneity in the incidence patterns of vivax malaria, and then draw comparisons with results for falciparum malaria.

Methodology/principal findings

Statistical analyses and a phenomenological transmission model are applied to an extensive spatio-temporal dataset on cases of Plasmodium vivax in the city of Ahmedabad (Gujarat, India) that spans 12 years monthly at the level of wards. A spatial pattern in malaria incidence is described that is largely stationary in time for this parasite. Malaria risk is then shown to be associated with socioeconomic indicators and environmental parameters, temperature and humidity. In a more dynamical perspective, an Inhomogeneous Markov Chain Model is used to predict vivax malaria risk. Models that account for climate factors, socioeconomic level and population size show the highest predictive skill. A comparison to the transmission dynamics of falciparum malaria reinforces the conclusion that the spatio-temporal patterns of risk are strongly driven by extrinsic factors.

Conclusion/significance

Climate forcing and socio-economic heterogeneity act synergistically at local scales on the population dynamics of urban malaria in this city. The stationarity of malaria risk patterns provides a basis for more targeted intervention, such as vector control, based on transmission ‘hotspots’. This is especially relevant for P. vivax, a more resilient parasite than P. falciparum, due to its ability to relapse and the operational shortcomings of delivering a “radical cure”.