As of July 22, 2025, the yield for a ten-year U.S. government bond was 4.38 percent, while the yield for a two-year bond was 3.88 percent. This represents an inverted yield curve, whereby bonds of longer maturities provide a lower yield, reflecting investors' expectations for a decline in long-term interest rates. Hence, making long-term debt holders open to more risk under the uncertainty around the condition of financial markets in the future. That markets are uncertain can be seen by considering both the short-term fluctuations, and the long-term downward trend, of the yields of U.S. government bonds from 2006 to 2021, before the treasury yield curve increased again significantly in the following years. What are government bonds? Government bonds, otherwise called ‘sovereign’ or ‘treasury’ bonds, are financial instruments used by governments to raise money for government spending. Investors give the government a certain amount of money (the ‘face value’), to be repaid at a specified time in the future (the ‘maturity date’). In addition, the government makes regular periodic interest payments (called ‘coupon payments’). Once initially issued, government bonds are tradable on financial markets, meaning their value can fluctuate over time (even though the underlying face value and coupon payments remain the same). Investors are attracted to government bonds as, provided the country in question has a stable economy and political system, they are a very safe investment. Accordingly, in periods of economic turmoil, investors may be willing to accept a negative overall return in order to have a safe haven for their money. For example, once the market value is compared to the total received from remaining interest payments and the face value, investors have been willing to accept a negative return on two-year German government bonds between 2014 and 2021. Conversely, if the underlying economy and political structures are weak, investors demand a higher return to compensate for the higher risk they take on. Consequently, the return on bonds in emerging markets like Brazil are consistently higher than that of the United States (and other developed economies). Inverted yield curves When investors are worried about the financial future, it can lead to what is called an ‘inverted yield curve’. An inverted yield curve is where investors pay more for short term bonds than long term, indicating they do not have confidence in long-term financial conditions. Historically, the yield curve has historically inverted before each of the last five U.S. recessions. The last U.S. yield curve inversion occurred at several brief points in 2019 – a trend which continued until the Federal Reserve cut interest rates several times over that year. However, the ultimate trigger for the next recession was the unpredicted, exogenous shock of the global coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, showing how such informal indicators may be grounded just as much in coincidence as causation.

The yield on US 10 Year Note Bond Yield rose to 4.12% on December 2, 2025, marking a 0.02 percentage points increase from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has remained flat, and it is 0.11 points lower than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. US 10 Year Treasury Bond Note Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on December of 2025.

The spread between 10–year and two–year U.S. Treasury bond yields reached a positive value of 0.49 percent in June 2025. The 10–year minus two–year Treasury bond spread is generally considered to be an advance warning of severe weakness in the stock market. Negative spreads occurred prior to the recession of the early 1990s, the tech-bubble crash in 2000–2001, and the financial crisis of 2007–2008.

Graph and download economic data for Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 30-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis (DGS30) from 1977-02-15 to 2025-11-28 about 30-year, maturity, Treasury, interest rate, interest, rate, and USA.

The yield on US 30 Year Bond Yield rose to 4.76% on December 2, 2025, marking a 0.02 percentage points increase from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0.06 points and is 0.35 points higher than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. United States 30 Year Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on December of 2025.

Graph and download economic data for Interest Rates: Long-Term Government Bond Yields: 10-Year: Main (Including Benchmark) for United States (IRLTLT01USM156N) from Apr 1953 to Oct 2025 about long-term, 10-year, bonds, yield, government, interest rate, interest, rate, and USA.

Track real-time 10 Year Treasury Rate yields and explore historical trends from year start to today. View interactive yield curve data with YCharts.

As of December 30, 2024, ** economies reported a negative value for their ten year minus two year government bond yield spread: Ukraine with a negative spread of ***** percent; Turkey, with a negative spread of 1332 percent; Nigeria with **** percent; and Russia with **** percent. At this time, almost all long-term debt for major economies was generating positive yields, with only the most stable European countries seeing smaller values. Why is an inverted yield curve important? Often called an inverted yield curve or negative yield curve, a situation where short term debt has a higher yield than long term debt is considered a main indicator of an impending recession. Essentially, this situation reflects an underlying belief among a majority of investors that short term interest rates are about to fall, with the lowering of interest rates being the orthodox fiscal response to a recession. Therefore, investors purchase safe government debt at today's higher interest rate, driving down the yield on long term debt. In the United States, an inverted yield curve for an extended period preceded (almost) all recent recessions. The exception to this is the economic downturn caused by the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic – however, the U.S. ten minus two year spread still came very close to negative territory in mid-2019. Bond yields and the coronavirus pandemic The onset of the coronavirus saw stock markets around the world crash in March 2020. This had an effect on bond markets, with the yield of both long term government debt and short term government debt falling dramatically at this time – reaching negative territory in many countries. With stock values collapsing, many investors placed their money in government debt – which guarantees both a regular interest payment and stable underlying value - in contrast to falling share prices. This led to many investors paying an amount for bonds on the market that was higher than the overall return for the duration of the bond (which is what is signified by a negative yield). However, the calculus is that the small loss taken on stable bonds is less that the losses likely to occur on the market. Moreover, if conditions continue to deteriorate, the bonds may be sold on at an even higher price, partly offsetting the losses from the negative yield.

Track real-time 30 Year Treasury Rate yields and explore historical trends from year start to today. View interactive yield curve data with YCharts.

Graph and download economic data for Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 20-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis (DGS20) from 1962-01-02 to 2025-11-28 about 20-year, maturity, Treasury, interest rate, interest, rate, and USA.

Total trades executed and mini flash crashes during Control Period 1.

A table that shows in detail by CUSIP, the interest rate, the STRIP CUSIP, maturity date, and amounts outstanding for securities held in unstripped form, stripped form and amount that have been reconstituted. STRIP stands for Separate Trading of Registered Interest and Principal of Securities. This is a security that has been stripped down into separate securities representing the principal and each interest payment. Each payment has its own identification number and can be traded individually. These securities are also known as zero-coupon bonds.

Callable Bonds Market Outlook

According to our latest research, the global callable bonds market size reached USD 2.21 trillion in 2024, reflecting robust activity across government, corporate, and municipal issuances. The market is poised for steady expansion, with a projected CAGR of 5.3% from 2025 to 2033. By the end of 2033, the callable bonds market is forecasted to attain a value of USD 3.51 trillion. This growth is primarily driven by increasing demand for flexible debt instruments in a dynamic interest rate environment, as issuers seek to optimize their capital structures and manage refinancing risks efficiently.

A key growth factor for the callable bonds market is the persistent volatility in global interest rates. As central banks continue to adjust monetary policies in response to inflationary pressures and macroeconomic uncertainties, both public and private sector issuers are increasingly favoring callable bonds. These instruments provide issuers with the strategic option to redeem debt early if interest rates decline, allowing for refinancing at lower costs. This flexibility is especially attractive in periods of economic uncertainty, where the ability to manage interest expenses and maintain liquidity is crucial. The growing sophistication of debt management strategies among governments and corporations further fuels the adoption of callable bonds worldwide.

Another significant driver is the rising participation of institutional investors in the callable bonds market. Asset managers, pension funds, and insurance companies are drawn to callable bonds for their relatively higher yields compared to non-callable alternatives, compensating for the embedded call risk. In addition, the expansion of emerging markets into global capital markets has led to increased callable bond issuances by sovereign and quasi-sovereign entities. This trend is amplified by advancements in technology and digital trading platforms, which enhance transparency and accessibility, making callable bonds more attractive to a broader investor base. The proliferation of online platforms is also enabling retail investors to participate more actively, further boosting market liquidity.

Regulatory reforms and evolving market practices are also shaping the trajectory of the callable bonds market. Enhanced disclosure requirements, improved pricing transparency, and the adoption of standardized documentation have contributed to greater investor confidence and market integrity. These regulatory developments, alongside the growing integration of environmental, social, and governance (ESG) criteria into bond issuance, are prompting issuers to innovate with callable structures that align with sustainable finance objectives. As a result, the market is witnessing a diversification of callable bond types and a broader range of issuers, which is expected to sustain growth over the long term.

From a regional perspective, North America continues to dominate the callable bonds market, accounting for the largest share of global issuances in 2024. This leadership is underpinned by the active participation of U.S. government agencies, corporates, and municipal entities, coupled with a highly developed financial infrastructure. Europe and Asia Pacific are also experiencing notable growth, driven by regulatory harmonization and increased cross-border capital flows. In contrast, Latin America and the Middle East & Africa are gradually expanding their presence, supported by economic reforms and infrastructure investments. Each region exhibits unique market dynamics, but the overarching trend points toward increasing globalization and diversification in callable bond offerings.

Type Analysis

The callable bonds market is segmented by type into traditional callable bonds, make-whole callable bonds, European callable bonds, Bermudan callable bonds, and others. Traditional callable bonds remain the most prevalent, offering issuers a straightforward mechanism to redeem bonds at predetermined call dates and prices. This type is favored for its simplicity and flexibility, particularly in markets where interest rates are expected to fluctuate. Traditional callable bonds provide issuers with the ability to refinance debt efficiently, while investors are compensated for call risk through higher yields. The enduring popularity of this segment is supported by well-established legal frameworks and market conventions, especially in North America and Europe.

The yield on US 20 Year Bond Yield rose to 4.73% on December 2, 2025, marking a 0.02 percentage points increase from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0.06 points and is 0.23 points higher than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. This dataset includes a chart with historical data for US 20Y.

The yield on Japan 10Y Bond Yield eased to 1.86% on December 2, 2025, marking a 0.02 percentage points decrease from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0.20 points and is 0.78 points higher than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. Japan 10 Year Government Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on December of 2025.

The 2020 recession did not follow the trend of previous recessions in the United States because only six months elapsed between the yield curve inversion and the 2020 recession. Over the last five decades, 12 months, on average, has elapsed between the initial yield curve inversion and the beginning of a recession in the United States. For instance, the yield curve inverted initially in January 2006, which was 22 months before the start of the 2008 recession. A yield curve inversion refers to the event where short-term Treasury bonds, such as one or three month bonds, have higher yields than longer term bonds, such as three or five year bonds. This is unusual, because long-term investments typically have higher yields than short-term ones in order to reward investors for taking on the extra risk of longer term investments. Monthly updates on the Treasury yield curve can be seen here.

High-level information on the federal government's outstanding debts, holdings, and the statutory debt limit. Data is reported monthly.

Tokenized Treasuries Market Outlook

According to our latest research, the Global Tokenized Treasuries market size was valued at $1.2 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach $12.8 billion by 2033, expanding at a robust CAGR of 30.2% during the forecast period of 2024–2033. The primary driver fueling this remarkable growth is the increasing adoption of blockchain technology by financial institutions and asset managers seeking enhanced liquidity, transparency, and efficiency in fixed-income markets. As tokenization transforms traditional treasuries into digital assets, it opens up new avenues for greater accessibility and fractional ownership, fundamentally changing the way institutional and retail investors participate in the bond market.

Regional Outlook

North America currently holds the largest share of the Tokenized Treasuries market, accounting for over 42% of the global revenue in 2024. This dominance is attributed to the region’s mature capital markets, early adoption of blockchain technology, and a supportive regulatory environment, particularly in the United States and Canada. Leading financial institutions and fintech firms in North America are at the forefront of deploying tokenized treasury solutions, leveraging advanced infrastructure and deep capital pools. Moreover, the presence of major blockchain platforms, such as Ethereum and Polygon, combined with progressive policies from the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and other regulatory bodies, has fostered a conducive environment for innovation and pilot projects. As a result, North America is expected to maintain its leadership position through 2033, although the pace of growth may moderate as the market matures.

Asia Pacific emerges as the fastest-growing region in the Tokenized Treasuries market, with a projected CAGR of 36.5% from 2024 to 2033. Rapid digital transformation across major economies like China, Japan, Singapore, and Australia is driving significant investments in blockchain and decentralized finance (DeFi) platforms. Governments and financial regulators in the region are increasingly recognizing the potential of tokenized assets to enhance capital market efficiency and attract global investors. Singapore, in particular, has positioned itself as a hub for digital asset innovation, offering regulatory sandboxes and tax incentives for blockchain startups. This proactive stance, coupled with rising demand for alternative investment products among Asia’s burgeoning middle class, is expected to propel the region’s share of the global Tokenized Treasuries market from 18% in 2024 to over 27% by 2033.

Emerging economies in Latin America, the Middle East, and Africa are gradually entering the Tokenized Treasuries landscape, albeit with unique challenges. Adoption in these regions is often hindered by limited digital infrastructure, regulatory uncertainties, and lower financial literacy among retail investors. However, localized demand is growing, particularly among fintech companies and asset managers seeking to tap into new sources of liquidity and diversify portfolios. In Latin America, countries like Brazil and Mexico are piloting tokenized bond issuances, while Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states are exploring blockchain for sovereign debt management. Policy reforms, such as digital asset frameworks and open banking initiatives, are expected to accelerate adoption, but progress will likely be uneven due to economic disparities and varying regulatory readiness.

Report Scope

As of December 2024, Japan held United States treasury securities totaling about 1.06 trillion U.S. dollars. Foreign holders of United States treasury debt According to the Federal Reserve and U.S. Department of the Treasury, foreign countries held a total of 8.5 trillion U.S. dollars in U.S. treasury securities as of December 2024. Of the total held by foreign countries, Japan and Mainland China held the greatest portions, with China holding 759 billion U.S. dollars in U.S. securities. The U.S. public debt In 2023, the United States had a total public national debt of 33.2 trillion U.S. dollars, an amount that has been rising steadily, particularly since 2008. In 2023, the total interest expense on debt held by the public of the United States reached 678 billion U.S. dollars, while 197 billion U.S. dollars in interest expense were intra governmental debt holdings. Total outlays of the U.S. government were 6.1 trillion U.S. dollars in 2023. By 2029, spending is projected to reach 8.3 trillion U.S. dollars.

Graph and download economic data for Federal Debt Held by Foreign and International Investors (FDHBFIN) from Q1 1970 to Q2 2025 about foreign, debt, federal, and USA.