The Outlook of the Australian Commercial Property Market Report is Segmented by Type (office, Retail, Industrial and Logistics, Hospitality, and Other Types) and by Key Cities (Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Adelaide, Canberra, and Perth). The Report Offers Market Sizes and Forecasts in Value (USD) for all the Above Segments.

In December 2024, commercial property sale asking prices were forecasted to witness a decrease of around 0.86 percent. Within the given time period, the largest growth in commercial property asking prices was recorded in June 2021.

In December 2024, retail property rent asking prices were forecasted to increase by around 1.87 percent. The Commercial Property Asking Price Index tracks the monthly change in vendor sentiment towards commercial rental properties advertised in Australia.

Retail property operators have endured highly volatile trading conditions in the past five years. Online shopping’s immense popularity has constrained demand for traditional bricks-and-mortar locations. This reduced demand for physical shopping has presented an issue for retail property operators despite a boost in overall demand for retail trade. With lower in-person sales, some retailers have reduced their instore presence and opted for an increased digital presence. This strategy minimises rent costs for these companies and minimises wage costs, as they no longer need to keep as many retail assistants on the books. Retailers have also had to contend with increasing interest rates, putting pressure on households and resulting in reduced spending on non-essential retailing. However, relief may be on the horizon as business confidence and consumer sentiment are forecast to recover. Some models imply that the worst inflation rates are behind us and that a rate cut may occur in early 2025. In the past, sustained periods of low interest rates have supported the development and supply of retail properties for operators to purchase and lease. However, these periods of affordable loans have given way to increased rates, stifling investment and reducing the number of new properties available. Compared to an abnormally low base year of 2019-20, industry revenue is expected to grow at an annualised 4.7% through the end of 2024-25 and total $42.7 billion, down by an anticipated 0.3% on the previous year. Profit margins have also declined alongside revenue. In the coming years, online shopping will continue to take market share from physical locations, reducing revenue for the Retail Property Operators industry by a forecast annualised 1.1% for the five years through 2029-30, leaving revenue at an estimated $40.4 billion. Retail property managers will be able to mitigate some of the impacts of online shopping growth by focusing on tenants that can’t sell their products or services online, like gyms, beauty salons or wine bars.

In December 2024, commercial property rent asking prices were forecasted to increase by around 2.21 percent. Within the given time period, the largest growth in commercial property rent prices was recorded in July 2022, with an increase of around 3.25 percent.

Australia PPI: PB: PS: Commercial Property Operator data was reported at 143.800 1998-1999=100 in Sep 2009. This records a decrease from the previous number of 148.100 1998-1999=100 for Jun 2009. Australia PPI: PB: PS: Commercial Property Operator data is updated quarterly, averaging 111.600 1998-1999=100 from Mar 1996 (Median) to Sep 2009, with 55 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 154.700 1998-1999=100 in Dec 2008 and a record low of 89.700 1998-1999=100 in Mar 1996. Australia PPI: PB: PS: Commercial Property Operator data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Australian Bureau of Statistics. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Australia – Table AU.I035: Producer Price Index: 1998-99=100: ANZSIC 1993: Services Industries.

Australian commercial real estate agencies have faced revenue challenges due to mortgage affordability and business confidence shifts. In 2020 and 2021, government stimulus measures and historically low interest rates improved mortgage affordability. This led to increased investments in sectors like industrial and logistics, boosting demand for agents. However, office property transactions declined because of pandemic restrictions. Since 2021, higher interest rates and less government support have decreased mortgage affordability and business confidence, leading companies to delay or reduce property investments. Additionally, the ongoing shift to remote work has increased office vacancies, reducing demand and pressuring agencies to accept lower profit margins. Overall, industry revenue has dropped at an annualised 2.5% over the past five years and is expected to total $1.10 billion in 2024-25, when revenue will drop by an estimated 4.6%. The Australian commercial real estate industry is undergoing significant transformations due to market dynamics and increased consolidation among major firms. Companies like CBRE, JLL and Colliers International are expanding aggressively through acquisitions—enhancing their service offerings and solidifying market dominance. This consolidation intensifies competition and creates substantial barriers for smaller agencies, pressuring them to strengthen their brand presence or consider mergers to remain viable. Additionally, the ecommerce boom - accelerated by the COVID-19 pandemic - has sharply increased demand for industrial properties like warehouses near urban centres. This surge attracts investors seeking stable returns and escalates competition for limited industrial space. Despite a projected decline in the cash rate that is expected to boost spending and business confidence, Australia's commercial real estate sector is anticipated to face challenges from hybrid work models. Businesses likely to downsize or choose flexible leases will prompt agencies to offer flexible workspaces or repurpose properties. Meanwhile, ecommerce growth drives demand in the industrial property market, supporting industry revenue. Climate concerns and upcoming regulations are increasing demand for sustainable properties; the scarcity of net-zero energy offices allows agencies to market them at premium prices to ESG-focused tenants. This combination of factors is set to culminate in annualised growth of 1.5% over the five years through 2029-30 to $1.19 billion.

Aware Super JV Barings' investment in Austrak Business Park in Somerton, Victoria, led Australia's commercial property investment charts in the third quarter of 2024, with a transaction value of 600 million Australian dollars. Investment in Lakeside Joondalup in Western Australia by retail property group Vicinity Centres followed in the same quarter, with a transaction value of over 420 million Australian dollars.

Australia real estate market size reached US$ 130 Billion in 2023. Looking forward, IMARC Group expects the market to reach US$ 176 Billion by 2032, exhibiting a growth rate (CAGR) of 3.4% during 2024-2032. The market is mainly driven by the rising population growth, economic stability and low interest rates on property purchase. Sustainable buildings, mixed-use developments and increased preference for online site visits and virtual tours are further contributing to the market growth.

IMARC Group provides an analysis of the key trends in each segment of the market, along with forecasts at the country and regional levels for 2024-2032. Our report has categorized the market based on property, business, and mode.

China's commercial real estate market at the end of 2024 was worth almost as much as the rest of Asia-Pacific combined. As of the last month of 2024, the value of commercial real estate in China was estimated at 5.8 trillion U.S. dollars. In Japan, this figure stood at about 1.9 trillion U.S. dollars.

In a survey conducted in the third quarter of 2024 about commercial property in Australia, the participants estimated a decrease of 2.8 percent in the retail capital value in Victoria in the next twelve months. In comparison, in Queensland, an increase of 1.2 percent was expected.

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Real Estate Market Size 2025-2029

The real estate market size is forecast to increase by USD 1,258.6 billion at a CAGR of 5.6% between 2024 and 2029.

The market is experiencing significant shifts and innovations, with both residential and commercial sectors adapting to new trends and challenges. In the commercial realm, e-commerce growth is driving the demand for logistics and distribution centers, while virtual reality technology is revolutionizing property viewings. Europe's commercial real estate sector is witnessing a rise in smart city development, incorporating LED lighting and data centers to enhance sustainability and efficiency. In the residential sector, wellness real estate is gaining popularity, focusing on health and well-being. Real estate software and advertising services are essential tools for asset management, streamlining operations, and reaching potential buyers. Regulatory uncertainty remains a challenge, but innovation in construction technologies, such as generators and renewable energy solutions, is helping mitigate risks.

What will be the Size of the Real Estate Market During the Forecast Period?

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The market continues to exhibit strong activity, driven by rising population growth and increasing demand for personal household space. Both residential and commercial sectors have experienced a rebound in home sales and leasing activity. The trend towards live-streaming rooms and remote work has further fueled demand for housing and commercial real estate. Economic conditions and local market dynamics influence the direction of the market, with interest rates playing a significant role in investment decisions. Fully furnished, semi-furnished, and unfurnished properties, as well as rental properties, remain popular options for buyers and tenants. Offline transactions continue to dominate, but online transactions are gaining traction.
The market encompasses a diverse range of assets, including land, improvements, buildings, fixtures, roads, structures, utility systems, and undeveloped property. Vacant land and undeveloped property present opportunities for investors, while the construction and development of new housing and commercial projects contribute to the market's overall growth.

How is this Real Estate Industry segmented and which is the largest segment?

The industry research report provides comprehensive data (region-wise segment analysis), with forecasts and estimates in 'USD billion' for the period 2025-2029, as well as historical data from 2019-2023 for the following segments.

Type

  Residential
  Commercial
  Industrial


Business Segment

  Rental
  Sales


Manufacturing Type

  New construction
  Renovation and redevelopment
  Land development


Geography

  APAC

    China
    India
    Japan
    South Korea


  North America

    Canada
    US


  Europe

    Germany
    UK


  South America

    Brazil


  Middle East and Africa

By Type Insights

The residential segment is estimated to witness significant growth during the forecast period.

The market encompasses the buying and selling of properties designed for dwelling purposes, including buildings, single-family homes, apartments, townhouses, and more. Factors fueling growth in this sector include the increasing homeownership rate among millennials and urbanization trends. The Asia Pacific region, specifically China, dominates the market due to escalating homeownership rates. In India, the demand for affordable housing is a major driver, with initiatives like Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana (PMAY) spurring the development of affordable housing projects catering to the needs of lower and middle-income groups. The commercial real estate segment, consisting of office buildings, shopping malls, hotels, and other commercial properties, is also experiencing growth.

Furthermore, economic and local market conditions, interest rates, and investment opportunities in fully furnished, semi-furnished, unfurnished properties, and rental properties influence the market dynamics. Technological integration, infrastructure development, and construction projects further shape the real estate landscape. Key sectors like transportation, logistics, agriculture, and the e-commerce sector also impact the market.

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The Residential segment was valued at USD 1440.30 billion in 2019 and showed a gradual increase during the forecast period.

Regional Analysis

APAC is estimated to contribute 64% to the growth of the global market during the forecast period.

Technavio's analysts have elaborately explained the regional trends and drivers that shape the market during the forecast period.

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The Asia Pacific region holds the largest share of The market, dr

Australia Wage Price Index: excl Bonuses: Ordinary Time: Private: Property & Business Services data was reported at 123.700 2003-2004=100 in Jun 2009. This records an increase from the previous number of 122.900 2003-2004=100 for Mar 2009. Australia Wage Price Index: excl Bonuses: Ordinary Time: Private: Property & Business Services data is updated quarterly, averaging 98.300 2003-2004=100 from Sep 1997 (Median) to Jun 2009, with 48 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 123.700 2003-2004=100 in Jun 2009 and a record low of 79.700 2003-2004=100 in Sep 1997. Australia Wage Price Index: excl Bonuses: Ordinary Time: Private: Property & Business Services data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Australian Bureau of Statistics. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Australia – Table AU.G099: Wage Price Index: ANZSIC 1993: 2003-04=100: Excluding Bonuses: Ordinary Time: by Sector and Industry.

The Market for Modular Construction in Australia Report is Segmented by Material Type (Concrete, Glass, Metal, Timber, and Other Material Types) and Application (Residential, Commercial, and Other Applications (Infrastructure and Industrial)). The Report Offers Market Sizes and Forecasts in Value Terms (USD) for all the Above Segments.

Australia PPI: Property & Business Services (PB) data was reported at 145.400 1998-1999=100 in Jun 2009. This records a decrease from the previous number of 147.200 1998-1999=100 for Mar 2009. Australia PPI: Property & Business Services (PB) data is updated quarterly, averaging 117.300 1998-1999=100 from Sep 1998 (Median) to Jun 2009, with 44 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 147.800 1998-1999=100 in Dec 2008 and a record low of 98.900 1998-1999=100 in Sep 1998. Australia PPI: Property & Business Services (PB) data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Australian Bureau of Statistics. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Australia – Table AU.I035: Producer Price Index: 1998-99=100: ANZSIC 1993: Services Industries.

生产者价格指数（PPI）：服务业：PB：PS：商业地产经营者在09-01-2009达143.8001998-1999=100，相较于06-01-2009的148.1001998-1999=100有所下降。生产者价格指数（PPI）：服务业：PB：PS：商业地产经营者数据按季更新，03-01-1996至09-01-2009期间平均值为111.6001998-1999=100，共55份观测结果。该数据的历史最高值出现于12-01-2008，达154.7001998-1999=100，而历史最低值则出现于03-01-1996，为89.7001998-1999=100。CEIC提供的生产者价格指数（PPI）：服务业：PB：PS：商业地产经营者数据处于定期更新的状态，数据来源于Australian Bureau of Statistics，数据归类于全球数据库的澳大利亚 – Table AU.I035: Producer Price Index: 1998-99=100: ANZSIC 1993: Services Industries。

Private New Capital Expenditure: Chain Volume: 2022-23: Actual: Trend: Buildings & Structures: Non Mining: Retail Trade data was reported at 441.000 AUD mn in Sep 2024. This records an increase from the previous number of 428.000 AUD mn for Jun 2024. Private New Capital Expenditure: Chain Volume: 2022-23: Actual: Trend: Buildings & Structures: Non Mining: Retail Trade data is updated quarterly, averaging 311.000 AUD mn from Sep 1987 (Median) to Sep 2024, with 149 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 677.000 AUD mn in Dec 2018 and a record low of 129.000 AUD mn in Sep 1995. Private New Capital Expenditure: Chain Volume: 2022-23: Actual: Trend: Buildings & Structures: Non Mining: Retail Trade data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Australian Bureau of Statistics. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Australia – Table AU.O018: Private New Capital Expenditure: Actual: Chain Volume: 2022-23 Price.

Rent Inflation in Australia decreased to 6.40 percent in the fourth quarter of 2024 from 6.70 percent in the third quarter of 2024. This dataset includes a chart with historical data for Australia Rent Inflation.

Quarterly summary of median private rent in South Australia by: suburb, postcode, State Government regions and Local Government Areas. The information relates to bonds lodged with Consumer and Business Services for private rental properties in South Australia.

In December 2024, retail property sale asking prices were forecasted to witness a decrease of around 1.33 percent. Within the given time period, the largest growth in retail property asking prices was recorded in September 2024.