We introduce a broad yet detailed data framework to assess the physical basis of modern industrial societies based on trends in their commodity demand. Using the example of the United States from 1900 to 2020, we consider both absolute commodity demand (ABS) and demand indexed to economic activity, otherwise known as intensity of use (IOU), for one hundred commodities that constitute the bulk of the material entering the US economy annually. The commodities selected are generally raw materials that enter the economy as industrial inputs that are further processed and incorporated into intermediate and finished products. The data show that ABS for nearly all the 100 commodities rose steadily until 1970 with IOU consistently rising for many as well. After that time, the trends for different groups of commodities start to diverge. Comparing ABS and IOU for the years 1970 and 2020 brings into focus the divergent trends. We find that for many metals and mineral commodities, domestic consumpt..., The database is an Excel workbook with three tabs. Tab 1 - Table S1 (Historical Data)  - Contains the reported data on apparent consumption of 100 commodities in the United States generally denominated in metric tons. These data were not generated, or calculated, but taken directly from were collected online from US government natural resources agencies. No processing of the data took place other than normalization. Table S1 also includes a times series from 1900 to 2020 on US Gross Domestic Product. Tab 2  - Table S2 (Technical notes) - Gives the source of data for each of the commodities listed in Table S1 as well as technical notes regarding the data as necessary. Tab 3 - ABS-IOU – Presents the calculated values for the variables IOU2020/1970 and ASB2020/1970 as shown in Figure 3 of the paper. These calculated values are based directly on data from Table S1., , # Data from: Is America dematerializing? Trends and tradeoffs in historic demand for one hundred commodities in the United States https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.k6djh9wfq

Reported Consumption Data for 100 commodities in the United States for the years 1900-2020 (coverage subject to data availability)

Description of the data and file structure

Simple excel file. Worksheet 1 includes the historical data by commodity. Worksheet 2 contains the technical notes for each commodity including the data sources. Worksheet 3 contains the calculated values for ABS and IOU, which are shown in Figure 3. of the paper.

Sharing/Access information

Links to other publicly accessible locations of the data:

• https://phe.rockefeller.edu/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Wernick_100-commodities-Tables-S1-S2-050624.xlsx

Data was derived from the following ...

Overview The report provides updated commodity forecasts as well as articles on the EU beef industry, world biofuel policies and the South American wine industry.

Key Issues Commodity forecasts
• The gross value of farm production is forecast to increase by 6.1 per cent to around $60.2 billion in 2016-17, following an estimated 4.2 per cent increase to $56.7 billion in 2015-16. At this forecast level the gross value of farm production in 2016-17 would be around 16 per cent higher than the average of $52 billion over the five years to 2015-16 in nominal terms. • The gross value of livestock production is forecast to decrease by 2.2 per cent to $28.5 billion in 2016-17, following an estimated 7.7 per cent increase in 2015-16. • The gross value of crop production is forecast to increase by 14.7 per cent to $31.7 billion in 2016-17. This reflects forecast increases in the gross value of horticulture and cotton production. • Export earnings from farm commodities are forecast to increase by 6.7 per cent to $47.5 billion in 2016-17, following an estimated 1.4 per cent increase in 2015-16 to $44.6 billion. • The agricultural commodities for which export earnings are forecast to rise in 2016-17 are wheat (up 25 per cent), wool (3 per cent), sugar (23 per cent), wine (3 per cent), barley (15 per cent), cotton (56 per cent), chickpeas (74 per cent), lamb (4 per cent), canola (33 per cent) and rock lobster (6 per cent). • The forecast increases in export earnings are expected to be partly offset by forecast falls in beef and veal (down 17 per cent), live feeder/slaughter cattle (17 per cent) and mutton (12 per cent). Export earnings for dairy products are expected to remain largely unchanged. • Export earnings for fisheries products are forecast to increase by 3.4 per cent to $1.6 billion in 2016-17, after increasing by an estimated 7.1 per cent in 2015-16.

Economic assumptions underlying this set of commodity forecasts

In preparing this set of agricultural commodity forecasts: • World economic growth is assumed to be 2.9 per cent in 2016 and 3.3 per cent in 2017. • Economic growth in Australia is assumed to average 2.5 per cent in 2016-17. • The Australian dollar is assumed to average US75 cents in 2016-17, slightly higher than the average of US73 cents in 2015-16.

Articles on agricultural issues

The EU beef industry
• The European Union is one of the world's largest consumers and importers of beef. Access to the EU market is controlled by strict animal health requirements and various quotas, which limit the amount of beef that can be imported. • As the European Union is a high value market for beef, improved access for Australia from a free trade agreement would likely lead to increased exports to this market.

Oils ain't oils
• Biofuel policies in some of the world's largest biofuel producing economies have the potential to affect returns to Australian agricultural exports such as canola, sugar and coarse grains. • This article looks at recent developments in the world's leading biofuel producers and consumers (the United States, European Union and Brazil) and discusses the expected impact on world commodity prices in 2016-17 and the high-level implications for agricultural commodities in the medium term. South American wine industry
• South America is a major world producer and exporter of wine, accounting for almost 14 per cent of world production. Wine exports from South America have increased markedly in the past 15 years and its wine increasingly competes in Australia's major and emerging export markets. • This article focuses on the development of the Argentine and Chilean wine industries, with a focus on their competitiveness with Australian wine exports.

Overview The March edition of Agricultural commodities contains ABARES' latest outlook for Australia's key agricultural commodities to 2022-23. The report provides commodity production and export …Show full descriptionOverview The March edition of Agricultural commodities contains ABARES' latest outlook for Australia's key agricultural commodities to 2022-23. The report provides commodity production and export forecasts. It also includes articles and boxes that cover: Farm performance - broadacre and dairy farms; Australia's competitiveness in the fresh produce export market; Changes to China's grain policy; The Peru FTA; Market diversity of Australian wine exports; and, Trends in Australian cotton and horticulture production. Key Issues Commodity production forecasts • The gross value of farm production is forecast to decline by 5 per cent to $59 billion in 2017-18, reflecting an assumed return to average seasonal conditions, before increasing by 3 per cent to $61 billion in 2018-19. ◦ The gross value of farm production nevertheless remains high. If realised, the forecast value of farm production in 2018-19 would be around 11 per cent higher than the average of $55 billion over the five years to 2016-17. ◦ The gross value of farm production is forecast to grow steadily over the outlook period to around $63 billion by 2022-23 (in 2017-18 dollars). Strong demand for livestock and some horticultural products, and improved productivity in cropping, are expected to support growth. • The gross value of livestock production is forecast to increase by around 3 per cent to $29.6 billion in 2018-19, following a forecast increase of 2 per cent in 2017-18. ◦ The value of lamb, wool and dairy production is forecast to contribute strongly to growth in the value of livestock production in 2018-19 (as in 2017-18), driven by strong export demand (particularly from China). ◦ The value of beef and veal production is forecast to fall slightly, as a decline in export prices offsets an increase in the volume of beef produced. Despite the fall in price, returns are well above the historical average and supportive of farm profitability. • The gross value of crop production is forecast to increase by 3 per cent to $31 billion in 2018-19, after a forecast decline of 11 per cent in 2017-18. ◦ The decline in 2017-18 follows record production of wheat, barley and canola in 2016-17 due to very favourable seasonal conditions during winter and spring. ◦ In 2018-19 the value of wheat, coarse grains and canola production is forecast to underpin growth in the value of total crop production. Wheat yields are assumed to improve (and to be around trend) following the frosts, above average temperatures and dry conditions during the winter of 2017. Area planted to coarse grains is forecast to increase due to strong global demand for feed and rotational constraints to planting pulses. Canola production is expected to increase as prices become comparatively favourable to the low coarse grain and falling pulse prices. Commodity export forecasts • Export earnings from farm commodities are forecast to be $48.5 billion in 2018-19, slightly higher than the forecast $47 billion in 2017-18. • Export earnings for fisheries products are forecast to increase by 1 per cent in 2018-19 to $1.5 billion, after increasing by a forecast 5 per cent in 2017-18. • In 2018-19 export earnings are forecast to rise for canola (22 per cent), cotton (17 per cent), barley (12 per cent), lamb (9 per cent), wool (7 per cent), wheat (6 per cent), rock lobster (4 per cent) and live feeder/slaughter cattle (1 per cent). ◦ Forecast higher prices are a strong contributor to growth in export earnings. In Australian dollar terms, export prices of cotton (11 per cent), wheat (9 per cent), wool (4 per cent), barley (4 per cent), mutton (4 per cent), rock lobster (3 per cent), lamb (2 per cent) and cheese (1 per cent) are forecast to increase in 2018-19. • Export earnings are forecast to decline in 2018-19 for chickpeas (54 per cent), sugar (11 per cent) and wine (2 per cent). Export earnings for beef and veal, cheese and mutton are forecast to be unchanged. ◦ The decline in export earnings for these commodities is driven by a fall in export prices. Prices for chickpeas (27 per cent), sugar (11 per cent) and wine (2 per cent) are forecast to fall due to increasing global supply and competition. Prices for beef and veal (3 per cent), live feeder/slaughter cattle (3 per cent) and canola (1 per cent) are also forecast to decline. • In 2022-23 the value of farm exports is projected to be around $49.6 billion (in 2017-18 dollars), 8 per cent higher than the average of $46 billion over the five years to 2016-17 in real terms. ◦ The value of crop exports is projected to be $25.2 billion in 2022-23 (in 2017-18 dollars), 2.4 per cent higher than the average of $24.6 billion over the five years to 2016-17 in real terms. The value of livestock exports is projected to be $24.4 billion in 2022-23 (in 2017-18 dollars), 15 per cent higher than the average of $21 billion over the five years to 2016-17 in real terms. Assumptions underlying this set of commodity forecasts Forecasts of commodity production and exports are based on global and domestic demand and supply assumptions. • On the demand side, stronger world economic growth will translate to higher per person incomes in most of Australia's export markets, supporting stronger demand. ◦ World economic growth is assumed to be 3.7 per cent in 2018 and 2019. From 2020 to 2023 economic growth is assumed to average 3.6 per cent. ◦ Economic growth in Australia is assumed to be 3 per cent in 2018-19 and over the medium term to 2022-23. ◦ The Australian dollar is assumed to average US76 cents in 2018-19, slightly lower than the forecast average of US78 cents in 2017-18. It is assumed to depreciate further to US74 cents in 2019-20 and remain at that level over the outlook period. • On the supply side, agricultural production is assumed to be consistent with average seasonal conditions in Australia and globally. ◦ Seasonal conditions have significant implications for crop yields and livestock production cycles.

This table contains 11779 series, with data for years 1961 - 1997 (not all combinations necessarily have data for all years). This table contains data described by the following dimensions (Not all combinations are available): Unit of measure (1 items: Dollars ...) Geography (14 items: Canada; Newfoundland and Labrador; Prince Edward Island; Nova Scotia ...) Inputs-outputs (2 items: Inputs; Outputs ...) Industry (22 items: Total industries; Fishing and trapping industries; Logging and forestry industries; Agricultural and related services industries ...) Commodity (58 items: Total commodities; Forestry products; Other agricultural products; Grains ...).

This table contains 17196 series, with data for years 1961 - 2008 (not all combinations necessarily have data for all years). This table contains data described by the following dimensions (Not all combinations are available): Geography (16 items: Canada; Prince Edward Island; Nova Scotia; Newfoundland and Labrador ...) Inputs-outputs (2 items: Inputs; Outputs ...) North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) (26 items: Total industries; Forestry and logging; Fishing; hunting and trapping; Crop and animal production ...) Commodity (62 items: Other agricultural products; Grains; Forestry products; Total commodities ...).

Brazil Exports: FOB: Daily Average: Soybean: Meal data was reported at 27.361 USD mn in 30 Jun 2019. This records a decrease from the previous number of 28.093 USD mn for 23 Jun 2019. Brazil Exports: FOB: Daily Average: Soybean: Meal data is updated daily, averaging 23.436 USD mn from Jul 2012 (Median) to 30 Jun 2019, with 335 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 68.803 USD mn in 05 May 2013 and a record low of 2.707 USD mn in 06 Nov 2016. Brazil Exports: FOB: Daily Average: Soybean: Meal data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Ministry of Development, Industry And Trade. The data is categorized under Brazil Premium Database’s Foreign Trade – Table BR.JAA004: Exports: by Commodities: Value. *The weekly data is considered preliminary data. To find the final version you may go to: + Foreign Trade + Foreign Trade: Monthly According to Ministry of Development, Industry and Foreign Trade (MDIC), these data began to be published with weekly frequency in July 2012. In some weeks the data are not available because the week is very short and there is insufficient data. Commodity is a term from English language (plural commodities), which means merchandise. It is used in commercial transactions of products as primary on commodity exchanges. The term is used to refer to products based on raw or small degree of industrialization, nearly uniform quality, produced in large quantities and by different producers. These products 'in natura', cultivated or mineral extraction, can be stored for a certain period without significant loss of quality. Having quotation and global marketability, using commodity exchanges. *Os dados semanais são considerado preliminares. De acordo com o Ministério do Desenvolvimento, Indústria e Comércio Exterior (MDIC), estes dados começaram a serem divulgados em frequência semanal em Julho de 2012. Em algumas semanas não há dados porque a semana é considerada curta e neste caso não há dados suficientes. Commodity é um termo de língua inglesa (plural commodities), que significa mercadoria. É utilizado nas transações comerciais de produtos de origem primária nas bolsas de mercadorias. O termo é usado como referência aos produtos de base em estado bruto (matérias-primas) ou com pequeno grau de industrialização, de qualidade quase uniforme, produzidos em grandes quantidades e por diferentes produtores. Estes produtos 'in natura', cultivados ou de extração mineral, podem ser estocados por determinado período sem perda significativa de qualidade. Possuem cotação e negociabilidade globais, utilizando bolsas de mercadorias.

This table contains 1251 series, with data for years 1961 - 1996 (not all combinations necessarily have data for all years). This table contains data described by the following dimensions (Not all combinations are available): Geography (1 items: Canada ...) Inputs-outputs (2 items: Inputs; Outputs ...) North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) (26 items: Total industries; Forestry and logging; Fishing; hunting and trapping; Crop and animal production ...) Commodity (60 items: Total commodities; Forestry products; Grains; Other agricultural products ...).

Overview The June edition of Agricultural commodities contains ABARES latest outlook for Australia's key agricultural commodities in 2017-18, which updates the outlook released in March 2017. The …Show full descriptionOverview The June edition of Agricultural commodities contains ABARES latest outlook for Australia's key agricultural commodities in 2017-18, which updates the outlook released in March 2017. The report provides updated commodity forecasts, an article on China's grain policies and boxes on seasonal conditions in Australia and chilled beef exports to China. Key Issues Commodity forecasts • The gross value of farm production is expected to decrease slightly in 2017-18, reflecting an expected return to average seasonal conditions following record production in 2016-17. • The value of farm exports is forecast to remain relatively unchanged in 2017-18. Economic assumptions underlying this set of commodity forecasts In preparing this set of agricultural commodity forecasts: • World economic growth is assumed to be 3.3 per cent in 2017 and 3.4 per cent in 2018. • Economic growth in Australia is assumed to average 2.8 per cent in 2017-18. • The Australian dollar is assumed to average US73 cents in 2017-18, slightly lower than the estimated average of US75 cents in 2016-17. Articles and boxes on agricultural issues China's grain policies • Recent changes to China's price support policies signal a move towards a less regulated grain marketing system. China now recognises a role for imports to ensure a secure food supply and actively engages in world markets for grains. These changes have the potential to influence global markets given the size of China's agricultural sector. • The article examines China's domestic grains support policies and border measures. Minimum purchase prices and a grain reserve system for rice and wheat remain key policy instruments. A non-commodity-specific support policy is also being implemented. Seasonal conditions in Australia • A timely autumn break in south-eastern Australia has improved soil moisture and provided a good start to the winter cropping season. • Pasture growth and pasture biomass is close to average for this time of year across most of Australia. • Drier and warmer-than-average conditions are more likely for much of southern Australia during the 2017 winter, but this is unlikely to adversely affect crop and pasture growth in the short-term due to adequate soil moisture. Chilled beef exports to China heat up • Australian exports of chilled beef to China are becoming increasingly important as Australian frozen beef exports face strong competition from low-cost South American producers. • Australia and China recently signed the Joint Statement on Enhancing Inspection and Quarantine Cooperation between Australia and the People's Republic of China. This will facilitate an increase in the number of eligible establishments permitted to export chilled and frozen red meat to China, pending the outcome of an audit.

Overview This report contains ABARES' latest outlook to 2020-21 for Australia's major agricultural commodities. In addition, this publication includes articles titled: • Farm performance: broadacre and dairy farms, 2013-14 to 2015-16 • Productivity in Australian broadacre and dairy industries • Disaggregating farm performance statistics by size. A limited number of printed copies will be available by contacting info.abares@agriculture.gov.au

Key Issues Commodity outlook
• The gross value of farm production is forecast to increase by 2.7 per cent to around $60.3 billion in 2016-17, following a forecast increase of 9.3 per cent to $58.7 billion in 2015-16. • The gross value of livestock production is forecast to increase by around 1.8 per cent to $30.8 billion in 2016-17, following a forecast increase of 13.3 per cent in 2015-16. The gross value of crop production is forecast to increase by 3.7 per cent to $29.5 billion in 2016-17, after a forecast increase of 5.3 per cent in 2015-16. • In 2020-21, the gross value of farm production is projected to be $58.5 billion (in 2015-16 dollars), 11 per cent higher than the average of $52.6 billion over the five years to 2014-15 in real terms. The gross value of crop production is projected to be $28.0 billion and the gross value of livestock production is projected to reach $30.4 billion (all in 2015-16 dollars). • Export earnings from farm commodities are forecast to be around $45.0 billion in 2016-17, slightly lower than the forecast $45.2 billion in 2015-16. • The agricultural commodities for which export earnings are forecast to rise in 2016-17 are wool (up 7 per cent), dairy products (4 per cent), sugar (7 per cent), live feeder/slaughter cattle (9 per cent), cotton (22 per cent) and canola (13 per cent). • Forecast increases in 2016-17 are expected to be more than offset by expected declines in export earnings for beef and veal (down 4 per cent), wheat (1 per cent), lamb (3 per cent) and mutton (11 per cent). • In 2020-21 the value of farm exports is projected to be around $45.3 billion (in 2015-16 dollars), 11 per cent higher than the average of $40.7 billion over the five years to 2014-15 in real terms. • Export earnings for fisheries products are forecast to stay at around $1.7 billion in 2016-17, after increasing by a forecast 15.6 per cent in 2015-16.

Economic assumptions underlying the commodity outlook
• World economic activity is forecast to increase by 3.2 per cent in 2016 and 3.4 per cent in 2017. World economic growth is expected to rise further to around 3.7 per cent in 2018 and 2019 before falling to 3.5 per cent in 2020 and 2021. • In Australia, economic growth is assumed to average 2.5 per cent in 2015-16, and 2.8 per cent in 2016-17. Toward 2020-21, economic growth is assumed to average around 2.7 per cent. • The Australian dollar is assumed to average around US71 cents in both 2015-16 and 2016-17. It is assumed to gradually appreciate over the medium term, reaching US74 cents towards 2020-21.

Overview The report provides updated commodity forecasts as well as articles on the EU sugar industry, EU almond industry and investment on Australia's farms. Key Issues Commodity forecasts • The …Show full descriptionOverview The report provides updated commodity forecasts as well as articles on the EU sugar industry, EU almond industry and investment on Australia's farms. Key Issues Commodity forecasts • The gross value of farm production is forecast to increase by 3.3 per cent to around $58.4 billion in 2016-17, following an estimated 3.8 per cent increase to $56.5 billion in 2015-16. If realised, the gross value of farm production in 2016-17 would be around 13 per cent higher than the five-year average of $51.8 billion between 2011-12 and 2015-16 in nominal terms. • The gross value of livestock production is forecast to remain largely unchanged at $29.2 billion in 2016-17, following an estimated 7.7 per cent increase in 2015-16. • The gross value of crop production is forecast to increase by 6.6 per cent to $29.2 billion in 2016-17. This mainly reflects forecast increases in the gross values of horticulture, cotton and oilseed production offsetting forecast decreases in the gross values of wheat and barley production. • Export earnings from farm commodities are forecast to fall slightly to $44 billion in 2016-17, following an estimated 1.3 per cent increase in 2015-16 to $44.5 billion. • The agricultural commodities for which export earnings are forecast to fall in 2016-17 are beef and veal (-12 per cent), dairy products (-1 per cent), live feeder/slaughter cattle (-4 per cent), chickpeas (-32 per cent) and mutton (-17 per cent). Export earnings for wheat are expected to remain largely unchanged. • The forecast decreases in 2016-17 are expected to be partly offset by forecast rises in export earnings for wool (6 per cent), sugar (21 per cent), wine (1 per cent), cotton (40 per cent), lamb (3 per cent) and canola (43 per cent). • Export earnings for fisheries products are forecast to increase by 8 per cent to $1.7 billion in 2016-17, after increasing by an estimated 7 per cent in 2015-16. Economic assumptions underlying this set of commodity forecasts In preparing this set of agricultural commodity forecasts: • World economic growth is assumed to be 2.8 per cent in 2016 and 3.3 per cent in 2017. • Economic growth in Australia averaged 2.9 per cent in 2015-16 and is assumed to average 2.7 per cent in 2016-17. • The Australian dollar is assumed to average US73 cents in 2016-17, largely unchanged from the estimated average for 2015-16. Articles on agricultural issues The EU sugar industry • The EU sugar market is highly regulated, with domestic price support, export subsidies and import restrictions. This stocktake of EU domestic and trade policies that support the EU sugar market will inform government and industry in the lead up to the commencement of Australia-EU FTA negotiations. • Australia's access to the EU sugar market is constrained by a country-specific tariff rate quota. Any improved access through either lower tariffs or increased quota would improve Australia's competitiveness in that market. The EU almond industry • The European Union is the world's largest consumer and importer of almonds and has been a growing export market for Australian almonds since 2005-06. • However, significant benefits from an Australian-EU FTA are unlikely for Australian almonds because import tariffs are already low and equal to those faced by the United States, the main supplier to this market. Investment in Australian farms • Investment in Australian farms is substantial, with net additions of non-land capital items on broadacre and dairy farms currently worth around $2 billion a year. • Farm operators and their spouses provide most of the capital used to fund the ownership and operation of Australian farms; corporate investors account for less than one-fifth of total capital. The strength of the family farm business structure suggests that corporate investors are unlikely to significantly displace family farmers in the near future.

This table contains 17196 series, with data for years 1961 - 2008 (not all combinations necessarily have data for all years). This table contains data described by the following dimensions (Not all combinations are available): Geography (16 items: Canada; Prince Edward Island; Nova Scotia; Newfoundland and Labrador ...) Inputs-outputs (2 items: Inputs; Outputs ...) North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) (26 items: Total industries; Forestry and logging; Fishing; hunting and trapping; Crop and animal production ...) Commodity (62 items: Other agricultural products; Grains; Forestry products; Total commodities ...).

Overview
The September edition of Agricultural commodities contains ABARES latest outlook for Australia's key agricultural commodities in 2018-19, which updates the outlook released in June 2018.

Key Issues • In 2018-19 the value of farm production is forecast to be relatively unchanged at $60 billion. • Dry conditions are affecting agricultural production in eastern Australia, but strong forecast production in Western Australia, rising grain prices, high livestock prices and a lower Australian dollar are providing support to farm incomes. • Export prices are forecast to increase by around 3% in 2018-19, driven by a decline in the global supply of grains and strong demand for meat products. • Downside risks to Australian agriculture include uncertainty around the duration of the drought in impacted areas, the timing and amount of rain in other regions, and possible disruption to world agricultural markets stemming from protectionist trade measures. Commodity production forecasts
• The value of crop production is forecast to decrease by 3 per cent to $30 billion in 2018-19. ◦ The decline is expected to be driven by a forecast decline in area planted in the eastern states. Drought conditions across eastern Australia restricted planting opportunities for crops, such as barley, canola and wheat. ◦ Higher forecast prices for canola, coarse grains, cotton and wheat are expected to mitigate the impact of lower crop volumes on the value of production. ◦ Wine grape and sugar production are forecast to rise as producing areas have been less affected by drought. The value of sugar production is nevertheless forecast to decline due to weak international prices. ◦ Horticultural production has increased following a warm winter, boosting production of a range of fruits and vegetables

• The value of livestock production is forecast to increase by 2 per cent to $30 billion in 2018-19. ◦ Drought in the eastern states has increased cattle and sheep turn-off, lifting meat production and leading to a forecast reduction in herd size. ◦ Dairy production is forecast to increase, as processors continue to offer relatively high milk prices. However, the production response is likely to be dampened by increasing feed and fodder costs. ◦ Wool production is forecast to be lower, constrained by lower flock numbers and poor grazing conditions.

Commodity export forecasts
• Export earnings for farm commodities are forecast to be $47 billion in 2018-19, down 5 per cent from $49 billion in 2017-18 • The decline in export earnings is largely due to lower exportable supplies of canola, coarse grains, pulses and wheat and increased domestic demand for grain. Agricultural export prices, measured by the index of unit export returns, are forecast to increase by 3% in 2018-19. ◦ Export earnings are forecast to decline in 2018-19 for canola (down 39 per cent), coarse grains (24 per cent), wheat (10 per cent), sugar (9 per cent), wool (2 per cent) and wine (1 per cent). Export earnings for beef and veal and live feeder/slaughter cattle are unchanged.

• Export earnings are forecast to be supported by strong demand from Asia and advanced economies for Australian livestock and livestock products. Higher prices for wheat, coarse grains and cotton are also expected to support earnings. ◦ In 2018-19 export earnings are forecast to rise for lamb (up 17 per cent), rice (14 per cent), mutton (13 per cent), cotton (9 per cent), cheese (6 per cent) and rock lobster (3 per cent).

• Export earnings for fisheries products are forecast to increase by 2 per cent in 2018-19 to $1.6 billion, after increasing by an estimated 10 per cent in 2017-18.

Assumptions underlying this set of commodity forecasts

Forecasts of commodity production and exports are based on global and domestic demand and supply assumptions.

• On the demand side, stronger world economic growth will translate to higher per person incomes in most of Australia's export markets, supporting stronger demand. ◦ World economic growth is assumed to be 3.9 per cent in 2018 and 2019. ◦ Economic growth in Australia is assumed to be 3.0 per cent in 2018-19. ◦ The Australian dollar is assumed to average US74 cents in 2018-19, lower than the assumed average of US78 cents in 2017-18.

• On the supply side, Australian agricultural production prospects are assumed to be below average. ◦ Dry conditions are forecast to have significant implications for crop yields and livestock production cycles in the eastern states.

Uncertainties that could affect agricultural commodity production and export growth include supply shocks in Australia or international markets (such as natural disasters, drought and disease outbreaks) or unexpected economic events that affect trade and economic growth.

Boxes on agricultural issues

Evolving EU biodiesel policies

• Proposed changes to the EU renewable fuels policy could increase demand for Australia's canola exports in the short to medium term. • Since 2010-11 the European Union has been the largest export market for Australian canola. Most canola is imported to produce renewable transport fuel.

Overview The June edition of Agricultural commodities contains ABARES latest outlook for Australia's key agricultural commodities in 2018-19, which updates the outlook released in March 2018. OverviewShow full descriptionOverview The June edition of Agricultural commodities contains ABARES latest outlook for Australia's key agricultural commodities in 2018-19, which updates the outlook released in March 2018. Overview • In 2018-19 the value of farm production is forecast to increase by 1.5 per cent to $61 billion. • An increase in global economic growth and declines in some global crop supplies are forecast to support average farm export unit values. • Downside risks to the Australian agricultural sector are the prolonged dry spell in some parts of Australia and economic and trade factors facing Australia'!!s key export markets. Commodity production forecasts • The value of farm production is forecast to increase by 1.5 per cent to $61 billion in 2018-19. The value of farm production is around 11 per cent higher than the 10 year average of $55 billion (in 2017-18 dollars). • The value of livestock production is forecast to increase by 3 per cent to $30 billion in 2018-19. ◦ The value of lamb and wool production is forecast to contribute strongly to growth in the value of livestock production in 2018-19 because of strong forecast price growth. The volume of dairy production is expected to increase modestly, despite rising feed costs after consecutive years of low prices for grain and hay. The value of beef and veal production is forecast to fall, as declining saleyard prices more-than offset increases in the volume of beef produced. • The value of crop production is forecast to remain unchanged at $31 billion in 2018-19. This follows an estimated decline of 8 per cent in 2017-18. ◦ In 2018-19 a change in the mix of grain crops is expected due to the combination of seasonal conditions, agronomic factors and relative prices. Delayed and inadequate autumn rainfall have reduced opportunities to plant canola and pulse crops. Prices of grains compared with prices of oilseeds and pulses are expected to add to incentives to plant barley and reduce canola and chickpea plantings. ◦ In 2018-19 the value of wheat and coarse grains production is forecast to underpin growth in the value of total crop production. Commodity export forecasts • Export earnings for farm commodities are forecast to be $47 billion in 2018-19, down 2 per cent from $48 billion in 2017-18. • The net decline in export earnings is largely due to lower exportable supplies of coarse grains, pulses and canola and increased domestic demand for grain. The pace of growth of international prices for beef and veal and other livestock products is also expected to slow as competition increases. ◦ Export earnings are forecast to decline in 2018-19 for chickpeas (down 59 per cent), coarse grains (36 per cent), canola (18 per cent), sugar (8 per cent), mutton (6 per cent) and rock lobster (1 per cent). Export earnings for live feeder/slaughter cattle are unchanged. • Export earnings are forecast to be supported by strong demand from Asia and advanced economies for Australian livestock and livestock products. Higher prices for wheat, coarse grains and cotton are also expected to support earnings. ◦ In 2018-19 export earnings are forecast to rise for cotton (up 18 per cent), lamb (10 per cent), wool (9 per cent), wheat (6 per cent), beef and veal (2 per cent), dairy products (1 per cent) and wine (1 per cent). • Export earnings for fisheries products are forecast to increase by 1 per cent in 2018-19 to $1.6 billion, after increasing by an estimated 10 per cent in 2017-18. Assumptions underlying this set of commodity forecasts Forecasts of commodity production and exports are based on global and domestic demand and supply assumptions. • On the demand side, stronger world economic growth will translate to higher per person incomes in most of Australia's export markets, supporting stronger demand. ◦ World economic growth is assumed to be 3.9 per cent in 2018 and 2019. ◦ Economic growth in Australia is assumed to be 2.8 per cent in 2018-19. ◦ The Australian dollar is assumed to average US76 cents in 2018-19, slightly lower than the assumed average of US78 cents in 2017-18. • On the supply side, Australian agricultural production prospects are assumed to be slightly below average. ◦ Seasonal conditions have significant implications for crop yields and livestock production cycles. Uncertainties that could affect agricultural commodity production and export growth include supply shocks in Australia or international markets (such as natural disasters, drought and disease outbreaks) or unexpected economic events that affect trade and economic growth.

This table contains 1251 series, with data for years 1961 - 1996 (not all combinations necessarily have data for all years). This table contains data described by the following dimensions (Not all combinations are available): Geography (1 items: Canada ...) Inputs-outputs (2 items: Inputs; Outputs ...) North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) (26 items: Total industries; Forestry and logging; Fishing; hunting and trapping; Crop and animal production ...) Commodity (60 items: Total commodities; Forestry products; Grains; Other agricultural products ...).

The wheat commodity market is a global marketplace where buyers and sellers trade wheat contracts. It is an important component of the agricultural commodities market and plays a crucial role in the global food supply chain. Learn about how the wheat commodity market operates, factors that influence price movements, and the significance of this market for both speculators and commercial players.

Brazil Exports: FOB: Volume: Daily Average: Soybean: Crude Oil data was reported at 7.381 Ton th in 30 Jun 2019. This records a decrease from the previous number of 11.371 Ton th for 23 Jun 2019. Brazil Exports: FOB: Volume: Daily Average: Soybean: Crude Oil data is updated daily, averaging 5.022 Ton th from Jul 2012 (Median) to 30 Jun 2019, with 338 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 21.900 Ton th in 09 Jun 2019 and a record low of 0.000 Ton th in 09 Oct 2016. Brazil Exports: FOB: Volume: Daily Average: Soybean: Crude Oil data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Ministry of Development, Industry And Trade. The data is categorized under Brazil Premium Database’s Foreign Trade – Table BR.JAA005: Exports: by Commodities: Volume. *The weekly data is considered preliminary data. To find the final version you may go to: + Foreign Trade + Foreign Trade: Monthly According to Ministry of Development, Industry and Foreign Trade (MDIC), these data began to be published with weekly frequency in July 2012. In some weeks the data are not available because the week is very short and there is insufficient data. Commodity is a term from English language (plural commodities), which means merchandise. It is used in commercial transactions of products as primary on commodity exchanges. The term is used to refer to products based on raw or small degree of industrialization, nearly uniform quality, produced in large quantities and by different producers. These products 'in natura', cultivated or mineral extraction, can be stored for a certain period without significant loss of quality. Having quotation and global marketability, using commodity exchanges. *Os dados semanais são considerado preliminares. De acordo com o Ministério do Desenvolvimento, Indústria e Comércio Exterior (MDIC), estes dados começaram a serem divulgados em frequência semanal em Julho de 2012. Em algumas semanas não há dados porque a semana é considerada curta e neste caso não há dados suficientes. Commodity é um termo de língua inglesa (plural commodities), que significa mercadoria. É utilizado nas transações comerciais de produtos de origem primária nas bolsas de mercadorias. O termo é usado como referência aos produtos de base em estado bruto (matérias-primas) ou com pequeno grau de industrialização, de qualidade quase uniforme, produzidos em grandes quantidades e por diferentes produtores. Estes produtos 'in natura', cultivados ou de extração mineral, podem ser estocados por determinado período sem perda significativa de qualidade. Possuem cotação e negociabilidade globais, utilizando bolsas de mercadorias.

United States PPI: Industrial Commodities data was reported at 206.300 1982=100 in Sep 2018. This records an increase from the previous number of 205.700 1982=100 for Aug 2018. United States PPI: Industrial Commodities data is updated monthly, averaging 31.100 1982=100 from Jan 1913 (Median) to Sep 2018, with 1269 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 209.500 1982=100 in Jul 2008 and a record low of 11.000 1982=100 in Mar 1915. United States PPI: Industrial Commodities data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Bureau of Labor Statistics. The data is categorized under Global Database’s USA – Table US.I017: Producer Price Index: By Commodities.

Crude commodities are raw materials that are extracted from the earth or produced through natural processes. They are the building blocks of many industries and play a crucial role in global trade and economic development. This article explores examples of crude commodities, their classification into hard and soft commodities, factors driving demand, price volatility, and environmental and social implications. Understanding crude commodities is essential for businesses, governments, and individuals involved

Overview
The March edition of Agricultural commodities contains ABARES' latest outlook for Australia's key agricultural commodities to 2021-22. The outlook will be an important focal point at the conference and underpin many presentations delivered by ABARES speakers at the conference. The report provides updated commodity forecasts, as well as articles on the EU sheep meat industry; farm performance of broadacre and dairy farms; productivity in Australia's broadacre and dairy industries; and disaggregating farm performance by size.

Key Issues Commodity forecasts
• The gross value of farm production is forecast to increase by 8.3 per cent to a record $63.8 billion in 2016-17 before easing by 3.9 per cent to a forecast $61.3 billion in 2017-18. Despite the forecast decline, the gross value of farm production in 2017-18 would be 17.3 per cent higher than the average of $52.3 billion over the five years to 2015-16 in nominal terms. • The gross value of livestock production is forecast to increase by around 4.4 per cent to $31.2 billion in 2017-18, following a forecast decrease of 2.6 per cent in 2016-17. If this forecast is realised, the gross value of livestock production in 2017-18 would be around 28 per cent higher than the average of $24.4 billion over the five years to 2015-16 in nominal terms. • The gross value of crop production is forecast to decrease by 11.3 per cent to $30 billion in 2017-18, after a forecast increase of 20.2 per cent in 2016-17. The decrease follows record production of wheat and barley in 2016-17, which resulted from favourable seasonal conditions during winter and spring. If this forecast is realised, the gross value of crop production in 2017-18 would be around 8 per cent higher than the average of $27.9 billion over the five years to 2015-16 in nominal terms. • In 2021-22 the gross value of farm production is projected to be around $59.6 billion (in 2016-17 dollars), 8.6 per cent higher than the average of $54.9 billion over the five years to 2015-16 (also in 2016-17 dollars). In 2021-22 the gross value of crop production is projected to be around $29.0 billion and the gross value of livestock production is projected to be around $30.6 billion (in 2016-17 dollars). • Export earnings from farm commodities are forecast to be around $48.7 billion in 2017-18, higher than the forecast $47.7 billion in 2016-17. • The agricultural commodities for which export earnings are forecast to rise in 2017-18 are beef and veal (up 1 per cent), wool (10 per cent), dairy products (11 per cent), sugar (10 per cent), cotton (35 per cent), wine (5 per cent), lamb (3 per cent), live feeder/slaughter cattle (4 per cent), rock lobster (6 per cent) and mutton (1 per cent). • Forecast increases in 2017-18 are expected to be partly offset by expected declines in export earnings for wheat (down 9 per cent), coarse grains (11 per cent), canola (6 per cent) and chickpeas (42 per cent). • In Australian dollar terms, export prices of wool, dairy products, sugar, wine, lamb, barley, canola, rock lobster and mutton are forecast to increase in 2017-18. Export prices for cotton and chickpeas are forecast to fall. Prices for beef and veal, wheat and live feeder/slaughter cattle are forecast to remain around the same as in 2016-17. • In 2021-22 the value of farm exports is projected to be around $46.6 billion (in 2016-17 dollars), 8 per cent higher than the average of $43.1 billion over the five years to 2015-16 in real terms. • The value of crop exports is projected to be $24.9 billion (in 2016-17 dollars) in 2021-22, 7 per cent higher than the average of $23.2 billion over the five years to 2015-16 in real terms. The value of livestock exports is projected to be $21.8 billion (in 2016-17 dollars) in 2021-22, 10 per cent higher than the average of $19.8 billion over the five years to 2015-16 in real terms. • Export earnings for fisheries products are forecast to increase by 2.3 per cent in 2017-18 to $1.5 billion, after decreasing by a forecast 3.4 per cent in 2016-17.

Economic assumptions underlying this set of commodity forecasts

In preparing this set of agricultural commodity forecasts: • World economic growth is assumed to be 3.3 per cent in 2017 and 3.4 per cent in 2018. Growth is expected to rise further to around 3.5 per cent in 2019 before declining to 3.4 per cent in 2021 and 3.3 per cent in 2022. • Economic growth in Australia is assumed to average 2.8 per cent in 2017-18. Over the medium term to 2021-22, economic growth is assumed to average around 3 per cent. • The Australian dollar is assumed to average US73 cents in 2017-18, slightly lower than the forecast average of US75 cents in 2016-17. It is assumed to appreciate slightly over the medium term, reaching US74 cents towards 2021-22.

Articles on agricultural issues
The EU sheep meat industry
• The European Union is one of the world's largest consumers of sheep meat. Imports are controlled by import quotas and prohibitive out-of-quota tariffs. • Australia is the second largest exporter to the European Union, behind New Zealand, although its allocated quota is just 8 per cent that of New Zealand's. • As a high value market for sheep meat, expanding sheep meat exports to the European Union would benefit the Australian industry. However, until the trade outcomes of Brexit are known, opportunities for Australian sheep meat exporters are uncertain.

Farm performance: broadacre and dairy farms, 2014-15 to 2016-17
• In 2016-17 farm cash income for Australian broadacre farms is projected to average $216,000 a farm, the highest recorded in the past 20 years. • Record broadacre farm cash incomes this year are the result of near record winter grain production in most regions and good prices for beef cattle, sheep, lamb and wool. • Average farm cash income is projected to increase for broadacre farms in all states except Tasmania in 2016-17. • Farm cash income for dairy farms is projected to decline by 17 per cent nationally to an average of $105,000 a farm in 2016-17, reflecting lower average farmgate milk prices and reduced milk production.

Productivity in Australia's broadacre and dairy industries
• From 1977-78 to 2014-15, productivity in the broadacre industries averaged 1.1 per cent a year as a result of declining input use (down 1 per cent a year) and modest output growth (up 0.1 per cent a year). • In the dairy industry, productivity growth averaged 1.5 per cent a year between 1978-79 and 2014-15. This reflected average annual growth of 1.3 per cent in output and an average annual decline of 0.2 per cent in input use.

Disaggregating farm performance by size
• The largest 10 per cent of broadacre farms produced 46 per cent of total output, while the smallest 50 per cent of farms produced 12 per cent of total output. • The average rate of return, including capital appreciation, generated by the largest 10 per cent of broadacre farms was 8.2 per cent, while the smallest 10 per cent generated average returns of -2.8 per cent. • The largest 10 per cent of broadacre farms had the lowest average equity ratio of all farms (79 per cent), while the smallest 10 per cent of farms had the highest average equity ratio (97 per cent).

Brazil Exports: FOB: Volume: Accumulated: Soybean: Crude Oil data was reported at 140.231 Ton th in 30 Jun 2019. This records a decrease from the previous number of 159.193 Ton th for 23 Jun 2019. Brazil Exports: FOB: Volume: Accumulated: Soybean: Crude Oil data is updated daily, averaging 57.535 Ton th from Jul 2012 (Median) to 30 Jun 2019, with 338 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 259.872 Ton th in 31 Aug 2015 and a record low of 0.000 Ton th in 09 Oct 2016. Brazil Exports: FOB: Volume: Accumulated: Soybean: Crude Oil data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Ministry of Development, Industry And Trade. The data is categorized under Brazil Premium Database’s Foreign Trade – Table BR.JAA005: Exports: by Commodities: Volume. *The weekly data is considered preliminary data. To find the final version you may go to: + Foreign Trade + Foreign Trade: Monthly According to Ministry of Development, Industry and Foreign Trade (MDIC), these data began to be published with weekly frequency in July 2012. In some weeks the data are not available because the week is very short and there is insufficient data. Commodity is a term from English language (plural commodities), which means merchandise. It is used in commercial transactions of products as primary on commodity exchanges. The term is used to refer to products based on raw or small degree of industrialization, nearly uniform quality, produced in large quantities and by different producers. These products 'in natura', cultivated or mineral extraction, can be stored for a certain period without significant loss of quality. Having quotation and global marketability, using commodity exchanges. *Os dados semanais são considerado preliminares. De acordo com o Ministério do Desenvolvimento, Indústria e Comércio Exterior (MDIC), estes dados começaram a serem divulgados em frequência semanal em Julho de 2012. Em algumas semanas não há dados porque a semana é considerada curta e neste caso não há dados suficientes. Commodity é um termo de língua inglesa (plural commodities), que significa mercadoria. É utilizado nas transações comerciais de produtos de origem primária nas bolsas de mercadorias. O termo é usado como referência aos produtos de base em estado bruto (matérias-primas) ou com pequeno grau de industrialização, de qualidade quase uniforme, produzidos em grandes quantidades e por diferentes produtores. Estes produtos 'in natura', cultivados ou de extração mineral, podem ser estocados por determinado período sem perda significativa de qualidade. Possuem cotação e negociabilidade globais, utilizando bolsas de mercadorias.