The economy of the United Kingdom is expected to fall by ** percent in the second quarter of 2020, following the Coronavirus outbreak and closure of several businesses. According to the forecast the economy will bounce back in the third quarter of 2020, based on a scenario where the lockdown lasts for three months, with social distancing gradually phased out over a subsequent three-month period.

With the global impact of the 2020 Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19), there has been a surge in public debt and uncertainty in the global economy. As the likelihood of a recession and a higher debt for Canada increases, the utility of a forecasting model is a realistic choice to both predict and determine optimal fiscal decisions for the government. This paper seeks to ratify existing historical trends in three developed economies (Canada, Japan, and the U.K.) as well as offer a time series forecast for the proceeding five years’ debt to GDP ratio. As per the International Monetary Fund (IMF), a limit of 60% in debt to GDP ratio was employed to measure how far off these three countries were from a considerably recoverable amount of debt. The time series forecast that the U.K. will drop to 65.436% by 2025, however, Japan and Canada will continue to accumulate debt to 254.3851% and 80.107% respectively.

In 2024, the gross domestic product (GDP) of the United Kingdom grew by 0.9 percent and is expected to grow by just one percent in 2025 and by 1.9 percent in 2026. Growth is expected to slow down to 1.8 percent in 2027, and then grow by 1.7, and 1.8 percent in 2027 and 2028 respectively. The sudden emergence of COVID-19 in 2020 and subsequent closure of large parts of the economy were the cause of the huge 9.4 percent contraction in 2020, with the economy recovering somewhat in 2021, when the economy grew by 7.6 percent. UK growth downgraded in 2025 Although the economy is still expected to grow in 2025, the one percent growth anticipated in this forecast has been halved from two percent in October 2024. Increased geopolitical uncertainty as well as the impact of American tariffs on the global economy are some of the main reasons for this mark down. The UK's inflation rate for 2025 has also been revised, with an annual rate of 3.2 percent predicated, up from 2.6 percent in the last forecast. Unemployment is also anticipated to be higher than initially thought, with the annual unemployment rate likely to be 4.5 percent instead of 4.1 percent. Long-term growth problems In the last two quarters of 2023, the UK economy shrank by 0.1 percent in Q3 and by 0.3 percent in Q4, plunging the UK into recession for the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic. Even before that last recession, however, the UK economy has been struggling with weak growth. Although growth since the pandemic has been noticeably sluggish, there has been a clear long-term trend of declining growth rates. The economy has consistently been seen as one of the most important issues to people in Britain, ahead of health, immigration and the environment. Achieving strong levels of economic growth is one of the main aims of the Labour government elected in 2024, although after almost one year in power it has so far proven elusive.

The gross domestic product of the United Kingdom in 2024 was around 2.78 trillion British pounds, an increase when compared to the previous year, when UK GDP amounted to about 2.75 trillion pounds. The significant drop in GDP visible in 2020 was due to the COVID-19 pandemic, with the smaller declines in 2008 and 2009 because of the global financial crisis of the late 2000s. Low growth problem in the UK Despite growing by 0.9 percent in 2024, and 0.4 percent in 2023 the UK economy is not that much larger than it was before the COVID-19 pandemic. Since recovering from a huge fall in GDP in the second quarter of 2020, the UK economy has alternated between periods of contraction and low growth, with the UK even in a recession at the end of 2023. While economic growth picked up somewhat in 2024, GDP per capita is lower than it was in 2022, following two years of negative growth. UK's global share of GDP falling As of 2024, the UK had the sixth-largest economy in the world, behind the United States, China, Japan, Germany, and India. Among European nations, this meant that the UK currently has the second-largest economy in Europe, although the economy of France, Europe's third-largest economy, is of a similar size. The UK's global economic ranking will likely fall in the coming years, however, with the UK's share of global GDP expected to fall from 2.16 percent in 2025 to 2.02 percent by 2029.  

The economic landscape of the United Kingdom has been significantly shaped by the intertwined issues of Brexit, COVID-19, and their interconnected impacts. Despite the country’s robust and diverse economy, the disruptions caused by Brexit and the COVID-19 pandemic have created uncertainty and upheaval for both businesses and individuals. Recognizing the magnitude of these challenges, academic literature has directed its attention toward conducting immediate research in this crucial area. This study sets out to investigate key economic factors that have influenced various sectors of the UK economy and have broader economic implications within the context of Brexit and COVID-19. The factors under scrutiny include the unemployment rate, GDP index, earnings, and trade. To accomplish this, a range of data analysis tools and techniques were employed, including the Box-Jenkins method, neural network modeling, Google Trend analysis, and Twitter-sentiment analysis. The analysis encompassed different periods: pre-Brexit (2011-2016), Brexit (2016-2020), the COVID-19 period, and post-Brexit (2020-2021). The findings of the analysis offer intriguing insights spanning the past decade. For instance, the unemployment rate displayed a downward trend until 2020 but experienced a spike in 2021, persisting for a six-month period. Meanwhile, total earnings per week exhibited a gradual increase over time, and the GDP index demonstrated an upward trajectory until 2020 but declined during the COVID-19 period. Notably, trade experienced the most significant decline following both Brexit and the COVID-19 pandemic. Furthermore, the impact of these events exhibited variations across the UK’s four regions and twelve industries. Wales and Northern Ireland emerged as the regions most affected by Brexit and COVID-19, with industries such as accommodation, construction, and wholesale trade particularly impacted in terms of earnings and employment levels. Conversely, industries such as finance, science, and health demonstrated an increased contribution to the UK’s total GDP in the post-Brexit period, indicating some positive outcomes. It is worth highlighting that the impact of these economic factors was more pronounced on men than on women. Among all the variables analyzed, trade suffered the most severe consequences in the UK. By early 2021, the macroeconomic situation in the country was characterized by a simple dynamic: economic demand rebounded at a faster pace than supply, leading to shortages, bottlenecks, and inflation. The findings of this research carry significant value for the UK government and businesses, empowering them to adapt and innovate based on forecasts to navigate the challenges posed by Brexit and COVID-19. By doing so, they can promote long-term economic growth and effectively address the disruptions caused by these interrelated issues.

The United States has had the highest economic growth in the G7 since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, with its economy *** percent larger in the first quarter of 2023, when compared with the fourth quarter of 2019. By contrast, the United Kingdom and Germany have both seen their economies shrink by *** percent in the same time period.

Explore real GDP growth projections dataset, including insights into the impact of COVID-19 on economic trends. This dataset covers countries such as Spain, Australia, France, Italy, Brazil, and more.

growth rate, Real, COVID-19, GDP

Spain, Australia, France, Italy, Brazil, Argentina, United Kingdom, United States, Canada, Russia, Turkiye, World, China, Mexico, Korea, India, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Germany, Indonesia, JapanFollow data.kapsarc.org for timely data to advance energy economics research..Source: OECD Economic Outlook database.- India projections are based on fiscal years, starting in April. The European Union is a full member of the G20, but the G20 aggregate only includes countries that are also members in their own right. Spain is a permanent invitee to the G20. World and G20 aggregates use moving nominal GDP weights at purchasing power parities. Difference in percentage points, based on rounded figures.

In 2020, global gross domestic product declined by 6.7 percent as a result of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic outbreak. In Latin America, overall GDP loss amounted to 8.5 percent.

The UK economy shrank by 0.1 percent in September 2025 after reporting zero growth in the previous month. Since a huge decline in GDP in April 2020, the UK economy has gradually recovered and is now slightly larger than it was before the COVID-19 pandemic. After the initial recovery from the pandemic, however, the UK economy has effectively flatlined, fluctuating between low growth and small contractions since 2022. Labour banking on growth to turn around fortunes in 2025 In February 2025, just over half a year after winning the last general election, the approval rating for the new Labour government fell to a low of -48 percent. Furthermore, the Prime Minister, Keir Starmer was not only less popular than the new Conservative leader, Kemi Badenoch, but also the leader of the Reform Party, Nigel Farage, whose party have surged in opinion polls recently. This remarkable decline in popularity for the new government is, in some part, due to a deliberate policy of making tough decisions early. Arguably, the most damaging of these policies was the withdrawal of the winter fuel allowance for some pensioners, although other factors such as a controversy about gifts and donations also hurt the government. While Labour aims to restore the UK's economic and political credibility in the long term, they will certainly hope for some good economic news sooner rather than later. Economy bounces back in 2024 after ending 2023 in recession Due to two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth, in late 2023 the UK economy ended the year in recession. After not growing at all in the second quarter of 2023, UK GDP fell by 0.1 percent in the third quarter, and then by 0.3 percent in the last quarter. For the whole of 2023, the economy grew by 0.4 percent compared to 2022, and for 2024 is forecast to have grown by 1.1 percent. During the first two quarters of 2024, UK GDP grew by 0.7 percent, and 0.4 percent, with this relatively strong growth followed by zero percent growth in the third quarter of the year. Although the economy had started to grow again by the time of the 2024 general election, this was not enough to save the Conservative government at the time. Despite usually seen as the best party for handling the economy, the Conservative's economic competency was behind that of Labour on the eve of the 2024 election.

In 2024, the gross domestic product (GDP) of the United Kingdom grew by *** percent and is expected to grow by *** percent in 2025 and by *** percent in 2026. Between 2027 and 2030, the economy is forecast to grow by ****percent every year. The sudden emergence of COVID-19 in 2020 and subsequent closure of large parts of the economy were the cause of the huge *** percent contraction in 2020, with the economy recovering somewhat in 2021, when the economy grew by *** percent. Long-term growth downgraded Although the UK economy will grow faster than expected in 2025, long-term economic growth is predicted to be slower. Increased geopolitical uncertainty as well as lower than expected productivity growth were some of the main reasons cited for this downgrade. In addition, the UK's inflation rate for 2025 was also revised, with an annual rate of *** percent predicated, up from *** percent in the last forecast. Unemployment has also been higher than initially thought, with the annual unemployment rate likely to be *** percent instead of *** percent. Long-term growth problems In the last two quarters of 2023, the UK economy shrank by *** percent in Q3 and by *** percent in Q4, plunging the UK into recession for the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic. Even before that last recession, however, the UK economy has been struggling with weak growth. Although growth since the pandemic has been noticeably sluggish, there has been a clear long-term trend of declining growth rates. The economy has consistently been seen as one of the most important issues to people in Britain, ahead of health, immigration and the environment. Achieving strong levels of economic growth is one of the main aims of the current government elected, although after one and a half years in power it has so far proven elusive.

Regional popularity of Brexit and COVID-19 under the finance category.

Regional popularity of Brexit and COVID-19 under business and industrial category.

Across the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, and the European Union, gross domestic products (GDP) decreased in 2020 as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, by 2021, growth rates were positive in all four areas again. The United Kingdom, Germany, and the European Union all experiencing slow economic growth in 2023 amid high inflation, with Germany even seeing an economic recession. GDP and its components GDP refers to the total market value of all goods and services that are produced within a country per year. It is composed of government spending, consumption, business investments and net exports. It is an important indicator to measure the economic strength of a country. Economists rely on a variety of factors when predicting the future performance of the GDP. Inflation rate is one of the economic indicators providing insight into the future behavior of households, which make up a significant proportion of GDP. Projections are based on the past performance of such information. Future considerations Some factors can be more easily predicted than others. For example, projections of the annual inflation rate of the United States are easy to come by. However, the intensity and impact of something like Brexit is difficult to predict. Moreover, the occurrence and impact of events such as the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia's war in Ukraine is difficult to foresee. Hence, actual GDP growth may be higher or lower than the original estimates.

Public sector net debt amounted to 93.5 percent of gross domestic product in the United Kingdom during the 2024/25 financial year. Following the COVID-19 pandemic, UK government debt has reached levels not seen since the early 1960s, due to a significant increase in borrowing in 2020/21. After peaking at 251.7 percent shortly after the end of the Second World War, government debt in the UK gradually fell, before a sharp increase in the late 2000s at the time of the global financial crisis. Debt not expected to start falling until 2029/30 In 2024/25, the UK's government expenditure was approximately 1.28 trillion pounds, around 44 percent of GDP. This spending was financed by 1.14 trillion pounds of revenue raised, and almost 150 billion pounds of borrowing. Although the UK government can continue to borrow money to finance its spending, the amount spent on debt interest has increased significantly in recent years. Current forecasts suggest that while the debt is eventually expected to start declining, this is based on falling government deficits in the next five years. Government facing hard choices Hitting fiscal targets, such as reducing the national debt, will require a careful balancing of the books from the current government, and the possibility for either spending cuts or tax rises. Although Labour ruled out raising the main government tax sources, Income Tax, National Insurance, and VAT, at the 2024 election, they did raise National Insurance for employers (rather than employees) and also cut Winter Fuel allowances for large numbers of pensioners. Less than a year after implementing cuts to Winter Fuel, the government performed a U-Turn on the issue, and also held back on more significant cuts to welfare.

The government of the United Kingdom borrowed approximately 2.6 percent worth of its GDP in the 2024/25 financial year, compared with 2.3 percent in 2023/24. In 2020/21, government borrowing reached 11.6 percent of GDP, due to increased financial support to public services during the COVID-19 pandemic, combined with reduced revenue because of societal lockdowns.

The primary aim of the Annual Purchases Survey is to provide a comprehensive picture of the goods and services used or transformed in the production process and running of UK businesses, otherwise referred to as intermediate consumption. This product-level information is used in supply and use tables (SUTs), which are an integral part of the measurement of gross domestic product (GDP). The Eurostat Manual of Supply Use and Input-Output Tables recommends that benchmarked supply and use tables are produced at least every five years based on updated source data. A previous survey, entitled the Purchases Inquiry, was suspended in 2006 due to insufficient quality in the data and to reduce the Office for National Statistics (ONS) costs and burden on UK businesses (final reference period being 2004). However, given the survey provides important information on the products that UK businesses purchase, it was decided that it should be reintroduced. The new survey aims to strengthen the estimates of the intermediate consumption structure of the UK economy.

In 2015, Annual Purchases Survey questionnaires were sent by the ONS to approximately 31,000 businesses in the UK. In the UK, it is a compulsory survey that is administered under the statutory powers of the Statistics of Trade Act 1947 for Great Britain and under the Employment (Northern Ireland) Order 1988 for Northern Ireland. Data are not available for 2019 and 2020 due to quality concerns related to the coronavirus (COVID‐19) pandemic, which caused high levels of non‐response and internal resource issues.

Linking to Other Business Studies
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Latest edition information:
For the fourth edition (May 2024), data for 2022 were added and the 2021 data were updated. Questionnaires and data dictionary were also added for each year.

The United Kingdom's economy grew by 1.1 percent in 2024, after a growth rate of 0.3 percent in 2023, 5.1 percent in 2022, 8.5 percent in 2021, and a record ten percent fall in 2020. During the provided time period, the biggest annual fall in gross domestic product before 2020 occurred in 2009, when the UK economy contracted by 4.6 percent at the height of the global financial crisis of the late 2000s. Before 2021, the year with the highest annual GDP growth rate was 1973, when the UK economy grew by 6.5 percent. UK economy growing but GDP per capita falling In 2022, the UK's GDP per capita amounted to approximately 37,371 pounds, with this falling to 37,028 pounds in 2023, and 36,977 pounds in 2024. While the UK economy as a whole grew during this time, the UK's population grew at a faster rate, resulting in the negative growth in GDP per capita. This suggests the UK economy's struggles with productivity are not only stagnating, but getting worse. The relatively poor economic performance of the UK in recent years has not gone unnoticed by the electorate, with the economy consistently seen as the most important issue for voters since 2022. Recent shocks to UK economy In the second quarter of 2020, the UK economy shrank by a record 20.3 percent at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic. Although there was a relatively swift economic recovery initially, the economy has struggled to grow much beyond its pre-pandemic size, and was only around 3.1 percent larger in December 2024, when compared with December 2019. Although the labor market has generally been quite resilient during this time, a long twenty-month period between 2021 and 2023 saw prices rise faster than wages, and inflation surge to a high of 11.1 percent in October 2022.

During the initial outbreak of the coronavirus (COVID-19) and throughout 2020, many people around the world accumulated a considerable amount of savings. Recent estimates calculated the so-called excess savings to be as high as *** percent of GDP in the United States, amounting to approximately *** trillion U.S. dollars at the end of 2020. European countries also experienced a similar trend, with excess savings in Spain worth *** percent of the country’s GDP, and *** percent in Germany.

What are excess savings?

Excess savings can be defined as any additional amount of money that exceeds the expected value of savings during a specific period. It could sound like a paradox but, despite many people losing their jobs and businesses shutting down due to the consequences of the COVID-19 outbreak in 2020, widespread lockdowns and movement restrictions drove people to reduce spending and increase savings. In fact, the measure undertaken by governments to tackle the outbreak led to saving rates reaching unprecedented heights in many countries across the world, particularly in the wealthiest economies.

What to do with all the money?

It is hard to predict how consumption behavior will develop after the restrictions are lifted and life goes back to pre-pandemic normality. However, we know that those who were able to save more money are generally high-income individuals, as was observed in Canada, for instance. This could mean that their spending will not necessarily increase significantly. Also, the results of a survey conducted in the United Kingdom (UK) in March 2021, revealed that one in ten individuals was planning to spend the additional savings accumulated during 2020, while the vast majority was inclined to keep them in their bank accounts.