According to conventional wisdom, long-term bonds are appropriate for conservative long-term investors. This paper develops a model of optimal consumption and portfolio choice for infinite-lived investors with recursive utility who face stochastic interest rates, solves the model using an approximate analytical method, and evaluates conventional wisdom. As risk aversion increases, the myopic component of risky asset demand disappears but the intertemporal hedging component does not. Conservative investors hold assets to hedge the risk that real interest rates will decline. Long-term inflation-indexed bonds are most suitable for this purpose, but nominal bonds may also be used if inflation risk is low.

In the last five years, the industry has experienced countervailing trends. For most of the period, rising assets under management (AUM) due to rising asset prices and growing disposable income have increased the base of assets industry operators charge fees on. Increased investor preference for passive asset management, including through exchange-traded funds (ETFs), has driven expenses charged for the management of assets down during the period. Financial markets play an integral role in AUM growth and, consequently, base and performance fees earned by managers. Growth in financial markets was supported by vital macroeconomic variables rising during the majority of the current period, including employment and disposable income levels. Market indices, such as the S&P 500, demonstrated strong growth as these variables increased. In addition, interest rates have climbed significantly over the past five years, which has increased interest income from fixed-income securities such as bonds, although interest rates have been slashed in the latter part of the current period. As interest rates fall, investment funds will shift from fixed-income securities into equities. Portfolio management and investment advice revenue has grown at a CAGR of 6.4% to $579.1 billion over the past five years, including a 3.4% rise in 2025 alone. However, profit has fallen slightly to 29.9% of revenue in the same year. Portfolio management and investment advice revenue are expected to climb at a CAGR of 2.7% to $661.3 billion over the five years to 2030. The beginning of the outlook period is expected to be marred by the anticipated rate cuts by the Federal Reserve as inflationary pressures continue to ease. The FED will monitor inflation, employment, potential tariffs and other economic factors before cutting interest rates at the onset of the outlook period. Customer preferences towards low to zero fees will persist, forcing the portfolio management and investment advising industry to change.

In recent years, industry assets have become increasingly integral to institutional investors' portfolios and the larger asset-management market. Institutional investors are individuals or organizations that trade securities in such substantial volumes that they qualify for lower commissions and fewer protective regulations since it's assumed that they're knowledgeable enough to protect themselves. Increasing demand from institutional investors has contributed to the surge in the industry's assets under management (AUM) and revenue during the current period. In recent years, the industry has continued to enmesh itself more deeply within the broader financial ecosystem despite the challenges posed at the onset of the period. The pandemic, mainly in the first quarter of 2020, contributed to revenue declines for many operators. Many portfolios, previously thought to be sound investments, were reevaluated and businesses pivoted their strategies due to the unprecedented nature of the crisis. However, as inflation was rampant in the latter part of the period, the FED increased interest rates to control high inflation, although as inflationary pressures eased in 2024, the FED cut interest rates, which will increase liquidity in financial markets. The Fed is anticipated to cut rates further in 2025, increasing liquidity and driving the shift of investments into equities from fixed-income securities. Overall, over the past five years, industry revenue grew at a CAGR of 4.2% to $310.1 billion, including an increase of 2.5% in 2025 alone. Industry profit has climbed significantly and will comprise 49.6% of revenue in the current year. Industry revenue will grow at a CAGR of 2.7% to $353.7 billion over the five years to 2030. The Federal Reserve is anticipated to cut interest rates as inflationary pressures continue to ease. These declining interest rates will increase liquidity in the markets. Private equity firms and hedge funds will have less difficulty raising capital for investments. As characteristics of the financial system change in light of post-financial crisis banking regulations and regulators' recognition of the importance of hedge funds within the financial system, hedge funds will likely experience heightened oversight.