In recent years, demand for temporary housing has been one of the most significant issues for the industry. Because of rising rental costs, many have faced the risk of homelessness, with many experiencing financial hardship and persistent economic disadvantage. This has been exacerbated by the economic impacts of recent global events, including the COVID-19 pandemic, with the economic consequences resulting in more individuals and families under financial stress. The shortage of affordable housing and rising rent costs have placed significant pressure on homelessness, which has ramped up demand for crisis accommodation service providers. Industry revenue is expected to increase at an annualised 1.6% over the five years through 2025-26 to $1.8 billion. Greater housing stress has boosted demand for crisis housing in recent years. Family breakdowns are one of the main reasons for housing transiency and are a crucial driver of demand for crisis and refuge accommodation. Inflationary and cost-of-living pressures will sustain industry demand, limiting declines in revenue, which is expected to inch down 0.8% in 2025-26, mainly because of stabilisation in the housing market and gradual economic recovery, easing the need for immediate crisis intervention. The Budget 2025 includes considerable additional money for disability assistance and social housing, including $60 million per year for disability residential care and $128 million over four years for new social housing in Auckland, supporting industry profitability. Several factors, including a shortage of affordable housing, economic hardship, disabilities, mental health conditions and addictions to alcohol, drugs and gambling, influence homelessness. Though these issues suggest a continued demand for crisis and care accommodation services, industry growth is projected to be tempered by cost pressures in 2028-29. Also, while ongoing housing affordability issues and an aging population are anticipated to drive industry growth, funding constraints will limit the expansion rate. Overall, industry revenue is forecast to slightly plunge at an annualised 1.9% over the five years through 2030-31 to $1.6 billion.

Portugal, Canada, and the United States were the countries with the highest house price to income ratio in 2024. In all three countries, the index exceeded 130 index points, while the average for all OECD countries stood at 116.2 index points. The index measures the development of housing affordability and is calculated by dividing nominal house price by nominal disposable income per head, with 2015 set as a base year when the index amounted to 100. An index value of 120, for example, would mean that house price growth has outpaced income growth by 20 percent since 2015. How have house prices worldwide changed since the COVID-19 pandemic? House prices started to rise gradually after the global financial crisis (2007–2008), but this trend accelerated with the pandemic. The countries with advanced economies, which usually have mature housing markets, experienced stronger growth than countries with emerging economies. Real house price growth (accounting for inflation) peaked in 2022 and has since lost some of the gain. Although, many countries experienced a decline in house prices, the global house price index shows that property prices in 2023 were still substantially higher than before COVID-19. Renting vs. buying In the past, house prices have grown faster than rents. However, the home affordability has been declining notably, with a direct impact on rental prices. As people struggle to buy a property of their own, they often turn to rental accommodation. This has resulted in a growing demand for rental apartments and soaring rental prices.

Increased demand from several downstream markets has been supporting revenue growth for the General Line Grocery Wholesaling industry. New Zealand’s rising population and demand from supermarkets and grocery stores have supported industry performance. However, discretionary incomes have fallen over the four years through 2024-25 during a cost-of-living crisis, curbing demand for both premium groceries and dining out at food service establishments. Overall, revenue is expected to have grown at an annualised 1.8% over the five years through 2024-25, to $22.6 billion. This includes an anticipated increase of 1.3% in 2024-25, largely because of higher domestic meat and fruit prices. Wholesale bypass trends have influenced wholesalers’ performance over the long term. Many retailers buy grocery products directly from manufacturers as manufacturers can often offer products at lower prices compared to wholesalers. Conditions have also become more competitive in the industry, which has led new firms to enter to take advantage of demand for niche products, like Asian groceries. Woolworths New Zealand Group has also recently started making their wholesale supply chain available to retailers and the company is likely to gain market share in the coming years. Price competition has made it difficult for wholesalers to pass on rising input costs, like higher domestic meat and vegetable prices, and this trend is set to continue. Rising discretionary incomes are forecast to encourage improved performance in the coming years since consumers will have more money available to spend on specialty and organic products. However, price-based competition is on track to continue challenging wholesalers. Strengthening competition in downstream markets will likely encourage buyers to seek out low-priced inputs, limiting industry revenue and profit margin growth. Revenue is forecast to rise at an annualised 1.5% over the five years through 2029-30 to $24.4 billion, as strong demand offsets competition and fuels revenue growth.

Car wholesalers have encountered a turbulent economy over the past few years. The Car Wholesaling industry’s revenue fell in 2020-21 as many consumers delayed purchasing motor vehicles due to pandemic-related economic uncertainty. Revenue swiftly rebounded in 2021-22, yet wholesalers faced difficulties importing new cars from overseas manufacturers. Global supply chain disruptions and semiconductor shortages led to car supply shortages, which constrained revenue growth in both 2020-21 and 2022-23. Motor vehicle prices have risen in recent years, yet robust demand from downstream consumers has supported car wholesalers’ revenue and profitability. In the current year, cost-of-living pressures have hindered consumer spending on expensive items like motor vehicles, weakening car wholesalers' sales activity. Overall, revenue is projected to climb at an annualised 2.2% to $9.5 billion through the end of 2024-25. This includes an anticipated drop of 0.8% in 2024-25. The uptake of electric vehicles (EVs) and hybrids accelerated in New Zealand during the current period. Government incentives to purchase low- or zero-emission cars through initiatives like the Clean Car Discount Scheme caused a surge in sales of EVs and hybrids. Solid sales of new motor vehicles in the last few years, including EVs and hybrid versions of popular SUVs, have improved car wholesalers' profitability (with the exception of 2023-24) as these models typically have higher price tags than smaller or petrol-fuelled cars. However, the scheme ended in December 2023, causing overall EV and hybrid sales to plummet in January. The reinstatement of road-use charges for these cars in April 2024 exacerbated this drop-off. The Car Wholesaling industry is projected to grow slightly over the coming years. The economic recovery will ease the cost-of-living crisis and restore consumer demand in downstream markets. Recovering tourism will spur demand from fleet buyers. Yet car wholesalers may continue to face intense external competition from alternatives, like public transport and ride-sharing services. Revenue is forecast to expand at an annualised 1.0% to $10.0 billion through the end of 2029-30.