Cotton rose to 58.47 USd/Lbs on July 2, 2025, up 0.01% from the previous day. Over the past month, Cotton's price has fallen 11.38%, and is down 14.00% compared to the same time last year, according to trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that tracks the benchmark market for this commodity. Cotton - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on July of 2025.

Graph and download economic data for Global price of Cotton (PCOTTINDUSDM) from Jan 1990 to May 2025 about cotton, World, and price.

In the 2020 calendar year, the global average price of cotton - from a selection of the principal upland cottons - stood at 64.3 U.S. cents per pound. The global price of cotton was at its peak in the 2011 crop year, with an average price of 136 cents per pound.

Cotton in the U.S.
The average farm price in the United States received by cotton growers, has been growing in the past few years. The United States is the leading global cotton exporter, and is among the leading cotton producers worldwide after India and China. As of 2017/2018, the United States produced about 17 percent of cotton globally.

Cottonseeds market
Worldwide cottonseed production amounted to about 43.5 million metric tons in 2018/2019, decreasing from around 45 million metric tons in the previous year. In that year, India and China were by far the main cottonseed producers worldwide, followed by Pakistan and Brazil.

Interactive chart of historical daily cotton prices back to 1969. The price shown is in U.S. Dollars per pound.

NCDEX: Spot Price: Cotton Seed Oilcake: Rajkot: First Session data was reported at 3,230.000 INR/Quintal in 14 May 2025. This records an increase from the previous number of 3,220.000 INR/Quintal for 13 May 2025. NCDEX: Spot Price: Cotton Seed Oilcake: Rajkot: First Session data is updated daily, averaging 2,960.000 INR/Quintal from Jan 2024 (Median) to 14 May 2025, with 317 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 4,030.000 INR/Quintal in 22 Oct 2024 and a record low of 2,510.000 INR/Quintal in 13 Feb 2024. NCDEX: Spot Price: Cotton Seed Oilcake: Rajkot: First Session data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange Limited. The data is categorized under India Premium Database’s Price – Table IN.PB001: Commodities Spot Price: National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange Limited.

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Cotton Market Size 2025-2029

The cotton market size is forecast to increase by USD 8.69 billion, at a CAGR of 3.2% between 2024 and 2029.

The market is a significant contributor to economic growth and a crucial source of livelihood for numerous communities worldwide. Key drivers propelling the market include the adoption of new technologies by companies to enhance productivity and efficiency. However, challenges persist, including the overconsumption of water due to poor management and water pollution. These issues not only pose environmental risks but also threaten the sustainability of cotton production. companies are increasingly investing in advanced technologies such as genetically modified cotton seeds, Precision Farming, and automation to improve yields and reduce costs. These innovations enable farmers to optimize resource utilization and minimize waste.
However, the market faces a substantial challenge in addressing the environmental impact of cotton production, particularly water usage and pollution. Inefficient drip irrigation systems and the use of excessive water for cotton cultivation have led to water scarcity in several regions, threatening both agricultural productivity and food security. Additionally, the discharge of untreated cotton processing wastewater into water bodies contributes to water pollution, posing health risks to local populations and negatively impacting the environment. To capitalize on market opportunities and navigate these challenges effectively, companies must focus on implementing sustainable farming practices and investing in water management technologies.

What will be the Size of the Cotton Market during the forecast period?

Explore in-depth regional segment analysis with market size data - historical 2019-2023 and forecasts 2025-2029 - in the full report.
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The market continues to evolve, with dynamic interplay between various sectors shaping its landscape. Cotton trade is a vital component, influenced by global supply and demand trends. Weaving transforms raw cotton into fabric, with organic cotton gaining prominence due to increasing consumer demand for sustainable textiles. The cotton supply chain encompasses spinning, flannel, plaid, voile, and various other types, each with unique applications. Research and innovation are at the forefront of the industry, driving advancements in cotton twill, blends, recycling, and regulations. Policies and certifications shape the cotton production process, focusing on sustainability and agricultural practices. Apparel, home textiles, and industrial textiles, including denim, quilting, broadcloth, and medical textiles, showcase the versatility of cotton.

Cotton's continuous evolution is further highlighted in the emergence of technologies, such as cotton derivatives, printing, and dyeing. Market volatility influences pricing, while waste reduction and innovation in finishing processes contribute to the industry's ongoing growth. The market's intricate web of interconnected components ensures a dynamic and ever-evolving industry landscape

How is this Cotton Industry segmented?

The cotton industry research report provides comprehensive data (region-wise segment analysis), with forecasts and estimates in 'USD million' for the period 2025-2029, as well as historical data from 2019-2023 for the following segments.

Application

  Cotton fiber
  Cotton seed oil
  Cotton seed


Distribution Channel

  Offline
  Online


Geography

  North America

    US
    Canada


  Europe

    France
    Germany
    UK


  Middle East and Africa

    Turkey


  APAC

    Bangladesh
    China
    India
    Pakistan


  Rest of World (ROW). 

By Application Insights

The cotton fiber segment is estimated to witness significant growth during the forecast period.

Cotton, a natural fiber grown in tropical and subtropical regions, is a significant player in the global textile industry. India, as the world's leading cotton producer, contributes substantially to the market. The textile and apparel sectors' expansion fueled the cotton industry's growth. Consumer preferences and trends shape the demand for cotton fibers, which accounts for approximately one-third of all fibers produced globally. Despite being an export crop, most processing occurs in major producing countries, such as China and India. Cotton's versatility is evident in its various applications, including industrial textiles, denim, home textiles, quilting, broadcloth, medical textiles, and more. Organic cotton, recycled cotton, and cotton blends are gaining popularity due to sustainability concerns.

The cotton supply chain involves various processes, from harvesting and certifications to spinning, weaving, dyeing, and finishing. Cotton agriculture faces challenges such as regulations, production volatility, and sustainability concerns. To address these issues, re

Overview This report contains ABARES' latest outlook to 2020-21 for Australia's major agricultural commodities. In addition, this publication includes articles titled: • Farm performance: broadacre …Show full descriptionOverview This report contains ABARES' latest outlook to 2020-21 for Australia's major agricultural commodities. In addition, this publication includes articles titled: • Farm performance: broadacre and dairy farms, 2013-14 to 2015-16 • Productivity in Australian broadacre and dairy industries • Disaggregating farm performance statistics by size. A limited number of printed copies will be available by contacting info.abares@agriculture.gov.au Key Issues Commodity outlook • The gross value of farm production is forecast to increase by 2.7 per cent to around $60.3 billion in 2016-17, following a forecast increase of 9.3 per cent to $58.7 billion in 2015-16. • The gross value of livestock production is forecast to increase by around 1.8 per cent to $30.8 billion in 2016-17, following a forecast increase of 13.3 per cent in 2015-16. The gross value of crop production is forecast to increase by 3.7 per cent to $29.5 billion in 2016-17, after a forecast increase of 5.3 per cent in 2015-16. • In 2020-21, the gross value of farm production is projected to be $58.5 billion (in 2015-16 dollars), 11 per cent higher than the average of $52.6 billion over the five years to 2014-15 in real terms. The gross value of crop production is projected to be $28.0 billion and the gross value of livestock production is projected to reach $30.4 billion (all in 2015-16 dollars). • Export earnings from farm commodities are forecast to be around $45.0 billion in 2016-17, slightly lower than the forecast $45.2 billion in 2015-16. • The agricultural commodities for which export earnings are forecast to rise in 2016-17 are wool (up 7 per cent), dairy products (4 per cent), sugar (7 per cent), live feeder/slaughter cattle (9 per cent), cotton (22 per cent) and canola (13 per cent). • Forecast increases in 2016-17 are expected to be more than offset by expected declines in export earnings for beef and veal (down 4 per cent), wheat (1 per cent), lamb (3 per cent) and mutton (11 per cent). • In 2020-21 the value of farm exports is projected to be around $45.3 billion (in 2015-16 dollars), 11 per cent higher than the average of $40.7 billion over the five years to 2014-15 in real terms. • Export earnings for fisheries products are forecast to stay at around $1.7 billion in 2016-17, after increasing by a forecast 15.6 per cent in 2015-16. Economic assumptions underlying the commodity outlook • World economic activity is forecast to increase by 3.2 per cent in 2016 and 3.4 per cent in 2017. World economic growth is expected to rise further to around 3.7 per cent in 2018 and 2019 before falling to 3.5 per cent in 2020 and 2021. • In Australia, economic growth is assumed to average 2.5 per cent in 2015-16, and 2.8 per cent in 2016-17. Toward 2020-21, economic growth is assumed to average around 2.7 per cent. • The Australian dollar is assumed to average around US71 cents in both 2015-16 and 2016-17. It is assumed to gradually appreciate over the medium term, reaching US74 cents towards 2020-21.

Overview
The March edition of Agricultural commodities contains ABARES' latest outlook for Australia's key agricultural commodities to 2022-23. The report provides commodity production and export forecasts.

It also includes articles and boxes that cover: Farm performance - broadacre and dairy farms; Australia's competitiveness in the fresh produce export market; Changes to China's grain policy; The Peru FTA; Market diversity of Australian wine exports; and, Trends in Australian cotton and horticulture production.

Key Issues

Commodity production forecasts • The gross value of farm production is forecast to decline by 5 per cent to $59 billion in 2017-18, reflecting an assumed return to average seasonal conditions, before increasing by 3 per cent to $61 billion in 2018-19. ◦ The gross value of farm production nevertheless remains high. If realised, the forecast value of farm production in 2018-19 would be around 11 per cent higher than the average of $55 billion over the five years to 2016-17. ◦ The gross value of farm production is forecast to grow steadily over the outlook period to around $63 billion by 2022-23 (in 2017-18 dollars). Strong demand for livestock and some horticultural products, and improved productivity in cropping, are expected to support growth.

• The gross value of livestock production is forecast to increase by around 3 per cent to $29.6 billion in 2018-19, following a forecast increase of 2 per cent in 2017-18. ◦ The value of lamb, wool and dairy production is forecast to contribute strongly to growth in the value of livestock production in 2018-19 (as in 2017-18), driven by strong export demand (particularly from China). ◦ The value of beef and veal production is forecast to fall slightly, as a decline in export prices offsets an increase in the volume of beef produced. Despite the fall in price, returns are well above the historical average and supportive of farm profitability.

• The gross value of crop production is forecast to increase by 3 per cent to $31 billion in 2018-19, after a forecast decline of 11 per cent in 2017-18. ◦ The decline in 2017-18 follows record production of wheat, barley and canola in 2016-17 due to very favourable seasonal conditions during winter and spring. ◦ In 2018-19 the value of wheat, coarse grains and canola production is forecast to underpin growth in the value of total crop production. Wheat yields are assumed to improve (and to be around trend) following the frosts, above average temperatures and dry conditions during the winter of 2017. Area planted to coarse grains is forecast to increase due to strong global demand for feed and rotational constraints to planting pulses. Canola production is expected to increase as prices become comparatively favourable to the low coarse grain and falling pulse prices.

Commodity export forecasts • Export earnings from farm commodities are forecast to be $48.5 billion in 2018-19, slightly higher than the forecast $47 billion in 2017-18. • Export earnings for fisheries products are forecast to increase by 1 per cent in 2018-19 to $1.5 billion, after increasing by a forecast 5 per cent in 2017-18. • In 2018-19 export earnings are forecast to rise for canola (22 per cent), cotton (17 per cent), barley (12 per cent), lamb (9 per cent), wool (7 per cent), wheat (6 per cent), rock lobster (4 per cent) and live feeder/slaughter cattle (1 per cent). ◦ Forecast higher prices are a strong contributor to growth in export earnings. In Australian dollar terms, export prices of cotton (11 per cent), wheat (9 per cent), wool (4 per cent), barley (4 per cent), mutton (4 per cent), rock lobster (3 per cent), lamb (2 per cent) and cheese (1 per cent) are forecast to increase in 2018-19.

• Export earnings are forecast to decline in 2018-19 for chickpeas (54 per cent), sugar (11 per cent) and wine (2 per cent). Export earnings for beef and veal, cheese and mutton are forecast to be unchanged. ◦ The decline in export earnings for these commodities is driven by a fall in export prices. Prices for chickpeas (27 per cent), sugar (11 per cent) and wine (2 per cent) are forecast to fall due to increasing global supply and competition. Prices for beef and veal (3 per cent), live feeder/slaughter cattle (3 per cent) and canola (1 per cent) are also forecast to decline.

• In 2022-23 the value of farm exports is projected to be around $49.6 billion (in 2017-18 dollars), 8 per cent higher than the average of $46 billion over the five years to 2016-17 in real terms. ◦ The value of crop exports is projected to be $25.2 billion in 2022-23 (in 2017-18 dollars), 2.4 per cent higher than the average of $24.6 billion over the five years to 2016-17 in real terms. The value of livestock exports is projected to be $24.4 billion in 2022-23 (in 2017-18 dollars), 15 per cent higher than the average of $21 billion over the five years to 2016-17 in real terms.

Assumptions underlying this set of commodity forecasts

Forecasts of commodity production and exports are based on global and domestic demand and supply assumptions.

• On the demand side, stronger world economic growth will translate to higher per person incomes in most of Australia's export markets, supporting stronger demand. ◦ World economic growth is assumed to be 3.7 per cent in 2018 and 2019. From 2020 to 2023 economic growth is assumed to average 3.6 per cent. ◦ Economic growth in Australia is assumed to be 3 per cent in 2018-19 and over the medium term to 2022-23. ◦ The Australian dollar is assumed to average US76 cents in 2018-19, slightly lower than the forecast average of US78 cents in 2017-18. It is assumed to depreciate further to US74 cents in 2019-20 and remain at that level over the outlook period.

• On the supply side, agricultural production is assumed to be consistent with average seasonal conditions in Australia and globally. ◦ Seasonal conditions have significant implications for crop yields and livestock production cycles.

The June edition of Agricultural commodities contains ABARES' latest outlook for Australia's key agricultural commodities in 2015-16, which updates the outlook ABARES released in March 2015.

In addition to commodity forecasts, this publication also includes boxes about the Australian sugar industry; the beef cattle industry in South America; demand and supply of sorghum in China; reforms to dairy support policies in the European Union; and El Nino and agricultural production.

Commodity forecasts
• Export earnings from farm commodities are forecast to be around $41.8 billion in 2015-16, compared with an estimated $42.4 billion in 2014-15. • This would be around 10 per cent higher than the average of $38 billion over the five years to 2014-15 in nominal terms. • Agricultural commodities for which export earnings are forecast to rise in 2015-16 include coarse grains (up by 6 per cent), dairy (2 per cent), lamb (2 per cent), live sheep (6 percent), wool (5 per cent) and sugar (5 per cent). • These forecast increases are expected to be more than offset by forecast falls in export earnings for beef and veal (4 per cent), wheat (5 per cent), canola (5 per cent), cotton (33 per cent), live feeder/slaughter cattle (4 per cent) and mutton (13 per cent). • Export earnings for fisheries products are forecast to increase by 6.3 per cent to around $1.6 billion in 2015-16, after increasing by an estimated 13.9 per cent to $1.5 billion in 2014-15. • The index of unit export returns for Australian farm exports is forecast to rise by 2.5 per cent in 2015-16, following an estimated rise of 6.0 per cent in 2014-15. This forecast increase in 2015-16 mainly reflects the effect of an assumed lower Australian dollar. • Higher export prices, in Australian dollar terms, are forecast for beef and veal, wool, barley, wine, lamb, canola, live feeder/slaughter cattle, rock lobster, mutton and dairy products in 2015-16. In contrast, export prices of wheat and sugar are forecast to decline. • The gross value of farm production is forecast to increase by 3.1 per cent to around $53.7 billion in 2015-16, following an estimated increase of 2.1 per cent to $52.1 billion in 2014-15. At this forecast level, the gross value of farm production in 2015-16 would be around 9 per cent higher than the average of $49.1 billion over the five years to 2014-15 in nominal terms. • The gross value of livestock production is forecast to increase by around 5.2 per cent to $27.2 billion in 2015-16, following an estimated increase of 13.1 per cent in 2014-15. The forecast increase in 2015-16 mainly reflects expected higher farmgate prices for beef cattle, lamb, sheep and wool, more than offsetting a forecast decline of 4.1 per cent in the volume index of livestock production in 2015-16 under the assumption of herd and flock rebuilding in the latter half of 2015-16. • The gross value of crop production is forecast to increase by 0.9 per cent to $26.5 billion in 2015-16, following an estimated decrease of 6.8 per cent in 2014-15. The forecast increase in 2015-16 mainly reflects an expected increase of 1.4 per cent in the volume index of crop production. • The volume index of total farm production is forecast to fall by 1.5 per cent in 2015-16, following an estimated decline of 0.7 per cent in 2014-15.

Economic assumptions underlying this set of commodity forecasts
• In preparing this set of agricultural commodity forecasts, world economic growth is assumed to be 3.4 per cent in 2015 and 3.6 per cent in 2016. • In Australia, economic growth is assumed to average 2.7 per cent in 2015-16, compared with 2.5 per cent in 2014-15. • The Australian dollar is assumed to average around US76 cents in 2015-16, around 10 per cent lower than the average of US84 cents in 2014-15.

El Nino and agricultural production

• The Bureau of Meteorology advised that the El Nino in the tropical Pacific continues to strengthen. All international climate models surveyed indicate that tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures are likely to remain above El Nino thresholds through the coming southern winter and into spring. • The impact of an El Nino event on Australian agricultural production is not uniform and is difficult to predict. While an El Nino event is often, but not always, associated with reduced rainfall in eastern Australia, the timing of rainfall can have a significant effect on crop and pasture production.

Overview The report provides updated commodity forecasts as well as articles on the EU beef industry, world biofuel policies and the South American wine industry.

Key Issues Commodity forecasts
• The gross value of farm production is forecast to increase by 6.1 per cent to around $60.2 billion in 2016-17, following an estimated 4.2 per cent increase to $56.7 billion in 2015-16. At this forecast level the gross value of farm production in 2016-17 would be around 16 per cent higher than the average of $52 billion over the five years to 2015-16 in nominal terms. • The gross value of livestock production is forecast to decrease by 2.2 per cent to $28.5 billion in 2016-17, following an estimated 7.7 per cent increase in 2015-16. • The gross value of crop production is forecast to increase by 14.7 per cent to $31.7 billion in 2016-17. This reflects forecast increases in the gross value of horticulture and cotton production. • Export earnings from farm commodities are forecast to increase by 6.7 per cent to $47.5 billion in 2016-17, following an estimated 1.4 per cent increase in 2015-16 to $44.6 billion. • The agricultural commodities for which export earnings are forecast to rise in 2016-17 are wheat (up 25 per cent), wool (3 per cent), sugar (23 per cent), wine (3 per cent), barley (15 per cent), cotton (56 per cent), chickpeas (74 per cent), lamb (4 per cent), canola (33 per cent) and rock lobster (6 per cent). • The forecast increases in export earnings are expected to be partly offset by forecast falls in beef and veal (down 17 per cent), live feeder/slaughter cattle (17 per cent) and mutton (12 per cent). Export earnings for dairy products are expected to remain largely unchanged. • Export earnings for fisheries products are forecast to increase by 3.4 per cent to $1.6 billion in 2016-17, after increasing by an estimated 7.1 per cent in 2015-16.

Economic assumptions underlying this set of commodity forecasts

In preparing this set of agricultural commodity forecasts: • World economic growth is assumed to be 2.9 per cent in 2016 and 3.3 per cent in 2017. • Economic growth in Australia is assumed to average 2.5 per cent in 2016-17. • The Australian dollar is assumed to average US75 cents in 2016-17, slightly higher than the average of US73 cents in 2015-16.

Articles on agricultural issues

The EU beef industry
• The European Union is one of the world's largest consumers and importers of beef. Access to the EU market is controlled by strict animal health requirements and various quotas, which limit the amount of beef that can be imported. • As the European Union is a high value market for beef, improved access for Australia from a free trade agreement would likely lead to increased exports to this market.

Oils ain't oils
• Biofuel policies in some of the world's largest biofuel producing economies have the potential to affect returns to Australian agricultural exports such as canola, sugar and coarse grains. • This article looks at recent developments in the world's leading biofuel producers and consumers (the United States, European Union and Brazil) and discusses the expected impact on world commodity prices in 2016-17 and the high-level implications for agricultural commodities in the medium term. South American wine industry
• South America is a major world producer and exporter of wine, accounting for almost 14 per cent of world production. Wine exports from South America have increased markedly in the past 15 years and its wine increasingly competes in Australia's major and emerging export markets. • This article focuses on the development of the Argentine and Chilean wine industries, with a focus on their competitiveness with Australian wine exports.

NCDEX: Spot Price: Cotton Seed Oilcake: Akola: Second Session data was reported at 3,098.150 INR/Quintal in 16 May 2025. This records an increase from the previous number of 3,096.650 INR/Quintal for 15 May 2025. NCDEX: Spot Price: Cotton Seed Oilcake: Akola: Second Session data is updated daily, averaging 2,752.450 INR/Quintal from Jan 2023 (Median) to 16 May 2025, with 582 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 3,498.050 INR/Quintal in 18 Sep 2024 and a record low of 2,404.550 INR/Quintal in 28 Jul 2023. NCDEX: Spot Price: Cotton Seed Oilcake: Akola: Second Session data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange Limited. The data is categorized under India Premium Database’s Price – Table IN.PB001: Commodities Spot Price: National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange Limited.

Overview The September edition of Agricultural commodities contains ABARES' latest outlook for Australia’s key agricultural commodities in 2015-16, and updates the outlook ABARES released in June 2015.

Farmer/stakeholder implications The Agricultural commodities report provides high quality and timely information that supports higher farm gate returns through informed decision making by primary producers.

Key Issues Commodity forecasts
• The gross value of farm production is forecast to increase by 8 per cent in 2015-16 to around $57.1 billion, following an estimated increase of 4 per cent to $52.8 billion in 2014-15. At this forecast level, the gross value of farm production in 2015-16 would be around 16 per cent higher than the average of $49.2 billion over the five years to 2014-15 in nominal terms. • The gross value of livestock production is forecast to increase by around 11 per cent in 2015-16 to $29.1 billion following an estimated increase of 15 per cent in 2014-15. The forecast increase in 2015-16 mainly reflects expected increases in the farmgate prices for beef cattle, lamb, sheep and wool. • The forecast increases in farmgate prices are expected to more than offset a forecast decline of 4 per cent in the volume index of livestock production in 2015-16, which mainly reflects an assumption of more favourable seasonal conditions in the latter half of 2015-16 leading to reduced slaughter as a result of herd and flock rebuilding. • The gross value of crop production is forecast to increase by 5 per cent in 2015-16 to $28.1 billion. This reflects an expected increase of 5 per cent in the volume index of crop production. • Export earnings from farm commodities are forecast to be around $43.4 billion in 2015-16, following a rise of 6 per cent to an estimated $43.5 billion in 2014-15. At this forecast level, export earnings from farm commodities in 2015-16 would be around 14 per cent higher than the average of $38.2 billion over the five years to 2014-15 in nominal terms. • These forecast increases are expected to be offset by forecast falls in export earnings from beef and veal (down 3 per cent to $8.6 billion), dairy (4 per cent to $2.4 billion), lamb (1 per cent to $1.7 billion), sugar (2 per cent to $1.4 billion), live feeder/slaughter cattle (8 per cent to $1.1 billion), cotton (33 per cent to $1.0 billion) and mutton (13 per cent to $0.7 billion). • Export earnings from fisheries products are forecast to increase by 11 per cent to around $1.6 billion in 2015-16, after increasing by an estimated 10 per cent to $1.4 billion in 2014-15. • The index of unit returns for Australian farm exports is forecast to rise by 4 per cent in 2015–16, following an estimated rise of 6 per cent in 2014-15. The forecast increase in 2015-16 mainly reflects the effect of an assumed decline in the Australian exchange rate, especially against the US dollar. • In Australian dollar terms, export prices of beef and veal, wool, wine, lamb, canola, live feeder/slaughter cattle, rock lobster, chickpeas and mutton are forecast to increase in 2015-16. In contrast, export prices of wheat, barley, sugar, cotton and dairy products are forecast to decline.

ABARES latest outlook for Australia's key agricultural commodities in 2014-15, which updates the forecasts ABARES released in September 2014. Commodity forecasts
• Earnings from farm exports are forecast to fall by 8.6 per cent in 2014-15 to around $37.6 billion. At this forecast level, export earnings in 2014-15 would be around 4 per cent above the average of $36.2 billion over the past decade to 2013-14 in real terms. • The forecast fall in farm export earnings largely reflects expected falls in earnings from cotton (down 37 per cent), barley (36 per cent), canola (44 per cent), wheat (10 per cent) and dairy (20 per cent). • Export earnings are forecast to increase for beef and veal (up 6 per cent), lamb (12 per cent), sugar (7 per cent), live feeder/slaughter cattle (5 per cent) and live sheep (62 per cent). • Earnings from crop exports are forecast to fall by 15.2 per cent to $19.3 billion in 2014-15, following a decline of 1.4 per cent in the previous year. • Export earnings from livestock and livestock products are forecast to fall slightly to $18.3 billion in 2014-15, following an increase of 22.6 per cent in the previous year. • Export earnings from fisheries products are forecast to increase by 3.3 per cent in 2014-15 to around $1.3 billion, following an increase of 11 per cent in 2013-14. • The index of unit export returns for Australian farm exports is forecast to decline by 1.8 per cent in 2014-15, following a rise of 7.4 per cent in 2013-14. • Higher export prices are forecast for beef, sheep meat and wine in 2014-15, while export prices of wheat, barley, cotton and dairy products are forecast to decline. • The gross value of farm production is forecast to fall by 5 per cent in 2014-15 to about $50.7 billion, following an estimated increase of 10 per cent to $53.4 billion in 2013-14. • The volume index of farm production is forecast to decrease by 5.9 per cent in 2014-15, following an estimated rise of 5.5 per cent in 2013-14.

Overview This report contains ABARES' latest forecasts for 2016-17 for Australia's major agricultural commodities. In addition, this publication includes articles on the EU dairy industry and Australia's trade in fresh fruit, tree nuts and vegetables.

Key Issues Commodity forecasts
• The gross value of farm production is forecast to increase by 1.1 per cent to around $58.5 billion in 2016-17, following an estimated 6.3 per cent increase to $57.8 billion in 2015-16. At this forecast level, the gross value of farm production in 2016-17 would be around 12 per cent higher than the average of $52 billion over the five years to 2015-16 in nominal terms. • The gross value of livestock production is forecast to stay around $29.8 billion in 2016-17, following an estimated 10.9 per cent increase in 2015-16. • The gross value of crop production is forecast to increase by 2.5 per cent to $28.6 billion in 2016-17, after an estimated increase of 1.8 per cent in 2015-16. This mainly reflects forecast increases in the gross value of sugar, cotton and horticultural production offsetting the forecast decreases in the gross value of grain production. • Export earnings from farm commodities are forecast to be $43.0 billion in 2016-17, 2.5 per cent lower than $44.1 billion in 2015-16. • The agricultural commodities for which export earnings are forecast to rise in 2016-17 are wool (up 6 per cent), sugar (14 per cent), lamb (1 per cent), cotton (21 per cent), canola (12 per cent) and live feeder/slaughter cattle (3 per cent). • Forecast increases in 2016-17 are expected to be more than offset by forecast falls in export earnings for beef and veal (down 9 per cent), wheat (7 per cent), dairy products (6 per cent), barley (2 per cent), chickpeas (43 per cent) and mutton (18 per cent). • Export earnings for fisheries products are forecast to stay around $1.7 billion in 2016-17, after increasing by an estimated 16.7 per cent in 2015-16.

Economic assumptions underlying this set of commodity forecasts

In preparing this set of agricultural commodity forecasts: • World economic growth is assumed to be 2.9 per cent in 2016 and 3.3 per cent in 2017. • Economic growth in Australia is assumed to average 2.5 per cent in 2015-16 and 2016-17. • The Australian dollar is assumed to average US73 cents in 2016-17, largely unchanged from the estimated average for 2015-16.

Articles on agricultural issues

The EU dairy industry
• The EU dairy industry is supported by domestic and trade policies implemented through the Common Agricultural Policy. • Without a change to the existing trade barriers for Australian dairy exports and stronger European demand for imported dairy products generally, Australian exports to that market are unlikely to increase significantly in the short term. Trade in fresh fruit, tree nuts and vegetables
• Australia is a significant net exporter of fresh fruit, fresh vegetables and tree nuts. • Changing diets in Asia's middle class, the depreciation of the Australian dollar and improved market access following the negotiation of several FTAs have supported exports of Australian fresh horticultural produce.

Overview The report provides updated commodity forecasts as well as articles on the EU sugar industry, EU almond industry and investment on Australia's farms. Key Issues Commodity forecasts • The …Show full descriptionOverview The report provides updated commodity forecasts as well as articles on the EU sugar industry, EU almond industry and investment on Australia's farms. Key Issues Commodity forecasts • The gross value of farm production is forecast to increase by 3.3 per cent to around $58.4 billion in 2016-17, following an estimated 3.8 per cent increase to $56.5 billion in 2015-16. If realised, the gross value of farm production in 2016-17 would be around 13 per cent higher than the five-year average of $51.8 billion between 2011-12 and 2015-16 in nominal terms. • The gross value of livestock production is forecast to remain largely unchanged at $29.2 billion in 2016-17, following an estimated 7.7 per cent increase in 2015-16. • The gross value of crop production is forecast to increase by 6.6 per cent to $29.2 billion in 2016-17. This mainly reflects forecast increases in the gross values of horticulture, cotton and oilseed production offsetting forecast decreases in the gross values of wheat and barley production. • Export earnings from farm commodities are forecast to fall slightly to $44 billion in 2016-17, following an estimated 1.3 per cent increase in 2015-16 to $44.5 billion. • The agricultural commodities for which export earnings are forecast to fall in 2016-17 are beef and veal (-12 per cent), dairy products (-1 per cent), live feeder/slaughter cattle (-4 per cent), chickpeas (-32 per cent) and mutton (-17 per cent). Export earnings for wheat are expected to remain largely unchanged. • The forecast decreases in 2016-17 are expected to be partly offset by forecast rises in export earnings for wool (6 per cent), sugar (21 per cent), wine (1 per cent), cotton (40 per cent), lamb (3 per cent) and canola (43 per cent). • Export earnings for fisheries products are forecast to increase by 8 per cent to $1.7 billion in 2016-17, after increasing by an estimated 7 per cent in 2015-16. Economic assumptions underlying this set of commodity forecasts In preparing this set of agricultural commodity forecasts: • World economic growth is assumed to be 2.8 per cent in 2016 and 3.3 per cent in 2017. • Economic growth in Australia averaged 2.9 per cent in 2015-16 and is assumed to average 2.7 per cent in 2016-17. • The Australian dollar is assumed to average US73 cents in 2016-17, largely unchanged from the estimated average for 2015-16. Articles on agricultural issues The EU sugar industry • The EU sugar market is highly regulated, with domestic price support, export subsidies and import restrictions. This stocktake of EU domestic and trade policies that support the EU sugar market will inform government and industry in the lead up to the commencement of Australia-EU FTA negotiations. • Australia's access to the EU sugar market is constrained by a country-specific tariff rate quota. Any improved access through either lower tariffs or increased quota would improve Australia's competitiveness in that market. The EU almond industry • The European Union is the world's largest consumer and importer of almonds and has been a growing export market for Australian almonds since 2005-06. • However, significant benefits from an Australian-EU FTA are unlikely for Australian almonds because import tariffs are already low and equal to those faced by the United States, the main supplier to this market. Investment in Australian farms • Investment in Australian farms is substantial, with net additions of non-land capital items on broadacre and dairy farms currently worth around $2 billion a year. • Farm operators and their spouses provide most of the capital used to fund the ownership and operation of Australian farms; corporate investors account for less than one-fifth of total capital. The strength of the family farm business structure suggests that corporate investors are unlikely to significantly displace family farmers in the near future.

Overview The March edition of Agricultural commodities contains ABARES' latest outlook for Australia's key agricultural commodities to 2021-22. The outlook will be an important focal point at the …Show full descriptionOverview The March edition of Agricultural commodities contains ABARES' latest outlook for Australia's key agricultural commodities to 2021-22. The outlook will be an important focal point at the conference and underpin many presentations delivered by ABARES speakers at the conference. The report provides updated commodity forecasts, as well as articles on the EU sheep meat industry; farm performance of broadacre and dairy farms; productivity in Australia's broadacre and dairy industries; and disaggregating farm performance by size. Key Issues Commodity forecasts • The gross value of farm production is forecast to increase by 8.3 per cent to a record $63.8 billion in 2016-17 before easing by 3.9 per cent to a forecast $61.3 billion in 2017-18. Despite the forecast decline, the gross value of farm production in 2017-18 would be 17.3 per cent higher than the average of $52.3 billion over the five years to 2015-16 in nominal terms. • The gross value of livestock production is forecast to increase by around 4.4 per cent to $31.2 billion in 2017-18, following a forecast decrease of 2.6 per cent in 2016-17. If this forecast is realised, the gross value of livestock production in 2017-18 would be around 28 per cent higher than the average of $24.4 billion over the five years to 2015-16 in nominal terms. • The gross value of crop production is forecast to decrease by 11.3 per cent to $30 billion in 2017-18, after a forecast increase of 20.2 per cent in 2016-17. The decrease follows record production of wheat and barley in 2016-17, which resulted from favourable seasonal conditions during winter and spring. If this forecast is realised, the gross value of crop production in 2017-18 would be around 8 per cent higher than the average of $27.9 billion over the five years to 2015-16 in nominal terms. • In 2021-22 the gross value of farm production is projected to be around $59.6 billion (in 2016-17 dollars), 8.6 per cent higher than the average of $54.9 billion over the five years to 2015-16 (also in 2016-17 dollars). In 2021-22 the gross value of crop production is projected to be around $29.0 billion and the gross value of livestock production is projected to be around $30.6 billion (in 2016-17 dollars). • Export earnings from farm commodities are forecast to be around $48.7 billion in 2017-18, higher than the forecast $47.7 billion in 2016-17. • The agricultural commodities for which export earnings are forecast to rise in 2017-18 are beef and veal (up 1 per cent), wool (10 per cent), dairy products (11 per cent), sugar (10 per cent), cotton (35 per cent), wine (5 per cent), lamb (3 per cent), live feeder/slaughter cattle (4 per cent), rock lobster (6 per cent) and mutton (1 per cent). • Forecast increases in 2017-18 are expected to be partly offset by expected declines in export earnings for wheat (down 9 per cent), coarse grains (11 per cent), canola (6 per cent) and chickpeas (42 per cent). • In Australian dollar terms, export prices of wool, dairy products, sugar, wine, lamb, barley, canola, rock lobster and mutton are forecast to increase in 2017-18. Export prices for cotton and chickpeas are forecast to fall. Prices for beef and veal, wheat and live feeder/slaughter cattle are forecast to remain around the same as in 2016-17. • In 2021-22 the value of farm exports is projected to be around $46.6 billion (in 2016-17 dollars), 8 per cent higher than the average of $43.1 billion over the five years to 2015-16 in real terms. • The value of crop exports is projected to be $24.9 billion (in 2016-17 dollars) in 2021-22, 7 per cent higher than the average of $23.2 billion over the five years to 2015-16 in real terms. The value of livestock exports is projected to be $21.8 billion (in 2016-17 dollars) in 2021-22, 10 per cent higher than the average of $19.8 billion over the five years to 2015-16 in real terms. • Export earnings for fisheries products are forecast to increase by 2.3 per cent in 2017-18 to $1.5 billion, after decreasing by a forecast 3.4 per cent in 2016-17. Economic assumptions underlying this set of commodity forecasts In preparing this set of agricultural commodity forecasts: • World economic growth is assumed to be 3.3 per cent in 2017 and 3.4 per cent in 2018. Growth is expected to rise further to around 3.5 per cent in 2019 before declining to 3.4 per cent in 2021 and 3.3 per cent in 2022. • Economic growth in Australia is assumed to average 2.8 per cent in 2017-18. Over the medium term to 2021-22, economic growth is assumed to average around 3 per cent. • The Australian dollar is assumed to average US73 cents in 2017-18, slightly lower than the forecast average of US75 cents in 2016-17. It is assumed to appreciate slightly over the medium term, reaching US74 cents towards 2021-22. Articles on agricultural issues The EU sheep meat industry • The European Union is one of the world's largest consumers of sheep meat. Imports are controlled by import quotas and prohibitive out-of-quota tariffs. • Australia is the second largest exporter to the European Union, behind New Zealand, although its allocated quota is just 8 per cent that of New Zealand's. • As a high value market for sheep meat, expanding sheep meat exports to the European Union would benefit the Australian industry. However, until the trade outcomes of Brexit are known, opportunities for Australian sheep meat exporters are uncertain. Farm performance: broadacre and dairy farms, 2014-15 to 2016-17 • In 2016-17 farm cash income for Australian broadacre farms is projected to average $216,000 a farm, the highest recorded in the past 20 years. • Record broadacre farm cash incomes this year are the result of near record winter grain production in most regions and good prices for beef cattle, sheep, lamb and wool. • Average farm cash income is projected to increase for broadacre farms in all states except Tasmania in 2016-17. • Farm cash income for dairy farms is projected to decline by 17 per cent nationally to an average of $105,000 a farm in 2016-17, reflecting lower average farmgate milk prices and reduced milk production. Productivity in Australia's broadacre and dairy industries • From 1977-78 to 2014-15, productivity in the broadacre industries averaged 1.1 per cent a year as a result of declining input use (down 1 per cent a year) and modest output growth (up 0.1 per cent a year). • In the dairy industry, productivity growth averaged 1.5 per cent a year between 1978-79 and 2014-15. This reflected average annual growth of 1.3 per cent in output and an average annual decline of 0.2 per cent in input use. Disaggregating farm performance by size • The largest 10 per cent of broadacre farms produced 46 per cent of total output, while the smallest 50 per cent of farms produced 12 per cent of total output. • The average rate of return, including capital appreciation, generated by the largest 10 per cent of broadacre farms was 8.2 per cent, while the smallest 10 per cent generated average returns of -2.8 per cent. • The largest 10 per cent of broadacre farms had the lowest average equity ratio of all farms (79 per cent), while the smallest 10 per cent of farms had the highest average equity ratio (97 per cent).

Overview
The March edition of Agricultural commodities contains ABARES' latest outlook for Australia's key agricultural commodities to 2021-22. The outlook will be an important focal point at the conference and underpin many presentations delivered by ABARES speakers at the conference. The report provides updated commodity forecasts, as well as articles on the EU sheep meat industry; farm performance of broadacre and dairy farms; productivity in Australia's broadacre and dairy industries; and disaggregating farm performance by size.

Key Issues Commodity forecasts
• The gross value of farm production is forecast to increase by 8.3 per cent to a record $63.8 billion in 2016-17 before easing by 3.9 per cent to a forecast $61.3 billion in 2017-18. Despite the forecast decline, the gross value of farm production in 2017-18 would be 17.3 per cent higher than the average of $52.3 billion over the five years to 2015-16 in nominal terms. • The gross value of livestock production is forecast to increase by around 4.4 per cent to $31.2 billion in 2017-18, following a forecast decrease of 2.6 per cent in 2016-17. If this forecast is realised, the gross value of livestock production in 2017-18 would be around 28 per cent higher than the average of $24.4 billion over the five years to 2015-16 in nominal terms. • The gross value of crop production is forecast to decrease by 11.3 per cent to $30 billion in 2017-18, after a forecast increase of 20.2 per cent in 2016-17. The decrease follows record production of wheat and barley in 2016-17, which resulted from favourable seasonal conditions during winter and spring. If this forecast is realised, the gross value of crop production in 2017-18 would be around 8 per cent higher than the average of $27.9 billion over the five years to 2015-16 in nominal terms. • In 2021-22 the gross value of farm production is projected to be around $59.6 billion (in 2016-17 dollars), 8.6 per cent higher than the average of $54.9 billion over the five years to 2015-16 (also in 2016-17 dollars). In 2021-22 the gross value of crop production is projected to be around $29.0 billion and the gross value of livestock production is projected to be around $30.6 billion (in 2016-17 dollars). • Export earnings from farm commodities are forecast to be around $48.7 billion in 2017-18, higher than the forecast $47.7 billion in 2016-17. • The agricultural commodities for which export earnings are forecast to rise in 2017-18 are beef and veal (up 1 per cent), wool (10 per cent), dairy products (11 per cent), sugar (10 per cent), cotton (35 per cent), wine (5 per cent), lamb (3 per cent), live feeder/slaughter cattle (4 per cent), rock lobster (6 per cent) and mutton (1 per cent). • Forecast increases in 2017-18 are expected to be partly offset by expected declines in export earnings for wheat (down 9 per cent), coarse grains (11 per cent), canola (6 per cent) and chickpeas (42 per cent). • In Australian dollar terms, export prices of wool, dairy products, sugar, wine, lamb, barley, canola, rock lobster and mutton are forecast to increase in 2017-18. Export prices for cotton and chickpeas are forecast to fall. Prices for beef and veal, wheat and live feeder/slaughter cattle are forecast to remain around the same as in 2016-17. • In 2021-22 the value of farm exports is projected to be around $46.6 billion (in 2016-17 dollars), 8 per cent higher than the average of $43.1 billion over the five years to 2015-16 in real terms. • The value of crop exports is projected to be $24.9 billion (in 2016-17 dollars) in 2021-22, 7 per cent higher than the average of $23.2 billion over the five years to 2015-16 in real terms. The value of livestock exports is projected to be $21.8 billion (in 2016-17 dollars) in 2021-22, 10 per cent higher than the average of $19.8 billion over the five years to 2015-16 in real terms. • Export earnings for fisheries products are forecast to increase by 2.3 per cent in 2017-18 to $1.5 billion, after decreasing by a forecast 3.4 per cent in 2016-17.

Economic assumptions underlying this set of commodity forecasts

In preparing this set of agricultural commodity forecasts: • World economic growth is assumed to be 3.3 per cent in 2017 and 3.4 per cent in 2018. Growth is expected to rise further to around 3.5 per cent in 2019 before declining to 3.4 per cent in 2021 and 3.3 per cent in 2022. • Economic growth in Australia is assumed to average 2.8 per cent in 2017-18. Over the medium term to 2021-22, economic growth is assumed to average around 3 per cent. • The Australian dollar is assumed to average US73 cents in 2017-18, slightly lower than the forecast average of US75 cents in 2016-17. It is assumed to appreciate slightly over the medium term, reaching US74 cents towards 2021-22.

Articles on agricultural issues
The EU sheep meat industry
• The European Union is one of the world's largest consumers of sheep meat. Imports are controlled by import quotas and prohibitive out-of-quota tariffs. • Australia is the second largest exporter to the European Union, behind New Zealand, although its allocated quota is just 8 per cent that of New Zealand's. • As a high value market for sheep meat, expanding sheep meat exports to the European Union would benefit the Australian industry. However, until the trade outcomes of Brexit are known, opportunities for Australian sheep meat exporters are uncertain.

Farm performance: broadacre and dairy farms, 2014-15 to 2016-17
• In 2016-17 farm cash income for Australian broadacre farms is projected to average $216,000 a farm, the highest recorded in the past 20 years. • Record broadacre farm cash incomes this year are the result of near record winter grain production in most regions and good prices for beef cattle, sheep, lamb and wool. • Average farm cash income is projected to increase for broadacre farms in all states except Tasmania in 2016-17. • Farm cash income for dairy farms is projected to decline by 17 per cent nationally to an average of $105,000 a farm in 2016-17, reflecting lower average farmgate milk prices and reduced milk production.

Productivity in Australia's broadacre and dairy industries
• From 1977-78 to 2014-15, productivity in the broadacre industries averaged 1.1 per cent a year as a result of declining input use (down 1 per cent a year) and modest output growth (up 0.1 per cent a year). • In the dairy industry, productivity growth averaged 1.5 per cent a year between 1978-79 and 2014-15. This reflected average annual growth of 1.3 per cent in output and an average annual decline of 0.2 per cent in input use.

Disaggregating farm performance by size
• The largest 10 per cent of broadacre farms produced 46 per cent of total output, while the smallest 50 per cent of farms produced 12 per cent of total output. • The average rate of return, including capital appreciation, generated by the largest 10 per cent of broadacre farms was 8.2 per cent, while the smallest 10 per cent generated average returns of -2.8 per cent. • The largest 10 per cent of broadacre farms had the lowest average equity ratio of all farms (79 per cent), while the smallest 10 per cent of farms had the highest average equity ratio (97 per cent).

Overview The December edition of Agricultural commodities contains ABARES' latest outlook for Australia's key agricultural commodities in 2015-16, and updates the outlook ABARES released in September 2015.

In addition to commodity forecasts, this publication includes two boxes: • seasonal conditions in Australia • farm cash income of broadacre farms and one article: • key agricultural outcomes of the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement.

Farmer/stakeholder implications The Agricultural commodities report provides high quality and timely information that supports higher farm gate returns through informed decision making by primary producers.

Key Issues Commodity forecasts
• The gross value of farm production is forecast to increase by 8 per cent in 2015-16 to around $57.6 billion, following an estimated increase of 4 per cent to $53.5 billion in 2014-15. At this forecast level, the gross value of farm production in 2015-16 would be around 17 per cent higher than the average of $49.4 billion over the five years to 2014-15 in nominal terms. • The gross value of livestock production is forecast to increase by around 13 per cent in 2015-16 to $30.0 billion following an estimated increase of 16 per cent in 2014-15. The forecast increase in 2015-16 mainly reflects expected increases in the farmgate prices for beef cattle, lamb, sheep and wool. • The forecast increases in farmgate prices are expected to more than offset a forecast decline of 5 per cent in the volume index of livestock production in 2015-16. This mainly reflects an assumption of more favourable seasonal conditions in the latter half of 2015-16 leading to reduced slaughter as a result of herd and flock rebuilding. • The gross value of crop production is forecast to increase by 2 per cent in 2015-16 to $27.6 billion alongside an expected increase of 2 per cent in the volume index of crop production. This mainly reflects increases in horticultural production offsetting the falling world prices of grains and oilseeds. • Export earnings from farm commodities are forecast to be around $44.0 billion in 2015-16, following a rise of 6 per cent to an estimated $43.6 billion in 2014-15. At this level, export earnings from farm commodities in 2015-16 would be around 15 per cent higher than the average of $38.2 billion over the five years to 2014-15 in nominal terms. • Agricultural commodities for which export earnings are forecast to rise in 2015-16 include: wheat (up 3 per cent to $5.7 billion), wool (9 per cent to $3.5 billion), wine (3 per cent to $2.1 billion), lamb (1 per cent to $1.7 billion), sugar (8 per cent to $1.4 billion), live feeder/slaughter cattle (16 per cent to $1.3 billion) and chickpeas (56 per cent to $0.6 billion). • These forecast increases are expected to be largely offset by forecast falls in export earnings from beef and veal (down 3 per cent to $8.6 billion), dairy (6 per cent to $2.3 billion), coarse grains (14 per cent to $2.3 billion), canola (8 per cent to $1.2 billion), cotton (21 per cent to $1.2 billion) and mutton (2 per cent to $0.8 billion). • Export earnings from fisheries products are forecast to increase by 17 per cent to around $1.7 billion in 2015-16, after increasing by an estimated 10 per cent to $1.4 billion in 2014-15. • The index of unit export returns for Australian farm exports is forecast to rise by 7 per cent in 2015-16, following an estimated rise of 6 per cent in 2014-15. The forecast increase in 2015-16 mainly reflects the effect of the assumed lower value of the Australian dollar, especially against the US dollar. • In Australian dollar terms, export prices of beef and veal, wool, wine, lamb, live feeder/slaughter cattle, rock lobster, mutton and chickpeas are forecast to increase in 2015-16. In contrast, export prices of wheat, barley, sugar and dairy products are forecast to decline.

Economic assumptions underlying this set of commodity forecasts
• World economic growth is assumed to be 3.1 per cent in 2015 and 3.4 per cent in 2016. • Economic growth in Australia is assumed to average 2.5 per cent in 2015-16, compared with 2.2 per cent in 2014-15. • The Australian dollar is assumed to average around US72 cents in 2015-16, 14 per cent lower than the average of US84 cents in 2014-15.

Overview The December edition of Agricultural commodities contains ABARES' latest outlook for Australia's key agricultural commodities in 2015-16, and updates the outlook ABARES released in …Show full descriptionOverview The December edition of Agricultural commodities contains ABARES' latest outlook for Australia's key agricultural commodities in 2015-16, and updates the outlook ABARES released in September 2015. In addition to commodity forecasts, this publication includes two boxes: • seasonal conditions in Australia • farm cash income of broadacre farms and one article: • key agricultural outcomes of the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement. Farmer/stakeholder implications The Agricultural commodities report provides high quality and timely information that supports higher farm gate returns through informed decision making by primary producers. Key Issues Commodity forecasts • The gross value of farm production is forecast to increase by 8 per cent in 2015-16 to around $57.6 billion, following an estimated increase of 4 per cent to $53.5 billion in 2014-15. At this forecast level, the gross value of farm production in 2015-16 would be around 17 per cent higher than the average of $49.4 billion over the five years to 2014-15 in nominal terms. • The gross value of livestock production is forecast to increase by around 13 per cent in 2015-16 to $30.0 billion following an estimated increase of 16 per cent in 2014-15. The forecast increase in 2015-16 mainly reflects expected increases in the farmgate prices for beef cattle, lamb, sheep and wool. • The forecast increases in farmgate prices are expected to more than offset a forecast decline of 5 per cent in the volume index of livestock production in 2015-16. This mainly reflects an assumption of more favourable seasonal conditions in the latter half of 2015-16 leading to reduced slaughter as a result of herd and flock rebuilding. • The gross value of crop production is forecast to increase by 2 per cent in 2015-16 to $27.6 billion alongside an expected increase of 2 per cent in the volume index of crop production. This mainly reflects increases in horticultural production offsetting the falling world prices of grains and oilseeds. • Export earnings from farm commodities are forecast to be around $44.0 billion in 2015-16, following a rise of 6 per cent to an estimated $43.6 billion in 2014-15. At this level, export earnings from farm commodities in 2015-16 would be around 15 per cent higher than the average of $38.2 billion over the five years to 2014-15 in nominal terms. • Agricultural commodities for which export earnings are forecast to rise in 2015-16 include: wheat (up 3 per cent to $5.7 billion), wool (9 per cent to $3.5 billion), wine (3 per cent to $2.1 billion), lamb (1 per cent to $1.7 billion), sugar (8 per cent to $1.4 billion), live feeder/slaughter cattle (16 per cent to $1.3 billion) and chickpeas (56 per cent to $0.6 billion). • These forecast increases are expected to be largely offset by forecast falls in export earnings from beef and veal (down 3 per cent to $8.6 billion), dairy (6 per cent to $2.3 billion), coarse grains (14 per cent to $2.3 billion), canola (8 per cent to $1.2 billion), cotton (21 per cent to $1.2 billion) and mutton (2 per cent to $0.8 billion). • Export earnings from fisheries products are forecast to increase by 17 per cent to around $1.7 billion in 2015-16, after increasing by an estimated 10 per cent to $1.4 billion in 2014-15. • The index of unit export returns for Australian farm exports is forecast to rise by 7 per cent in 2015-16, following an estimated rise of 6 per cent in 2014-15. The forecast increase in 2015-16 mainly reflects the effect of the assumed lower value of the Australian dollar, especially against the US dollar. • In Australian dollar terms, export prices of beef and veal, wool, wine, lamb, live feeder/slaughter cattle, rock lobster, mutton and chickpeas are forecast to increase in 2015-16. In contrast, export prices of wheat, barley, sugar and dairy products are forecast to decline. Economic assumptions underlying this set of commodity forecasts • World economic growth is assumed to be 3.1 per cent in 2015 and 3.4 per cent in 2016. • Economic growth in Australia is assumed to average 2.5 per cent in 2015-16, compared with 2.2 per cent in 2014-15. • The Australian dollar is assumed to average around US72 cents in 2015-16, 14 per cent lower than the average of US84 cents in 2014-15.

Overview The September edition of Agricultural commodities contains ABARES latest outlook for Australia's key agricultural commodities in 2018-19, which updates the outlook released in June 2018. Key…Show full descriptionOverview The September edition of Agricultural commodities contains ABARES latest outlook for Australia's key agricultural commodities in 2018-19, which updates the outlook released in June 2018. Key Issues • In 2018-19 the value of farm production is forecast to be relatively unchanged at $60 billion. • Dry conditions are affecting agricultural production in eastern Australia, but strong forecast production in Western Australia, rising grain prices, high livestock prices and a lower Australian dollar are providing support to farm incomes. • Export prices are forecast to increase by around 3% in 2018-19, driven by a decline in the global supply of grains and strong demand for meat products. • Downside risks to Australian agriculture include uncertainty around the duration of the drought in impacted areas, the timing and amount of rain in other regions, and possible disruption to world agricultural markets stemming from protectionist trade measures. Commodity production forecasts • The value of crop production is forecast to decrease by 3 per cent to $30 billion in 2018-19. ◦ The decline is expected to be driven by a forecast decline in area planted in the eastern states. Drought conditions across eastern Australia restricted planting opportunities for crops, such as barley, canola and wheat. ◦ Higher forecast prices for canola, coarse grains, cotton and wheat are expected to mitigate the impact of lower crop volumes on the value of production. ◦ Wine grape and sugar production are forecast to rise as producing areas have been less affected by drought. The value of sugar production is nevertheless forecast to decline due to weak international prices. ◦ Horticultural production has increased following a warm winter, boosting production of a range of fruits and vegetables • The value of livestock production is forecast to increase by 2 per cent to $30 billion in 2018-19. ◦ Drought in the eastern states has increased cattle and sheep turn-off, lifting meat production and leading to a forecast reduction in herd size. ◦ Dairy production is forecast to increase, as processors continue to offer relatively high milk prices. However, the production response is likely to be dampened by increasing feed and fodder costs. ◦ Wool production is forecast to be lower, constrained by lower flock numbers and poor grazing conditions. Commodity export forecasts • Export earnings for farm commodities are forecast to be $47 billion in 2018-19, down 5 per cent from $49 billion in 2017-18 • The decline in export earnings is largely due to lower exportable supplies of canola, coarse grains, pulses and wheat and increased domestic demand for grain. Agricultural export prices, measured by the index of unit export returns, are forecast to increase by 3% in 2018-19. ◦ Export earnings are forecast to decline in 2018-19 for canola (down 39 per cent), coarse grains (24 per cent), wheat (10 per cent), sugar (9 per cent), wool (2 per cent) and wine (1 per cent). Export earnings for beef and veal and live feeder/slaughter cattle are unchanged. • Export earnings are forecast to be supported by strong demand from Asia and advanced economies for Australian livestock and livestock products. Higher prices for wheat, coarse grains and cotton are also expected to support earnings. ◦ In 2018-19 export earnings are forecast to rise for lamb (up 17 per cent), rice (14 per cent), mutton (13 per cent), cotton (9 per cent), cheese (6 per cent) and rock lobster (3 per cent). • Export earnings for fisheries products are forecast to increase by 2 per cent in 2018-19 to $1.6 billion, after increasing by an estimated 10 per cent in 2017-18. Assumptions underlying this set of commodity forecasts Forecasts of commodity production and exports are based on global and domestic demand and supply assumptions. • On the demand side, stronger world economic growth will translate to higher per person incomes in most of Australia's export markets, supporting stronger demand. ◦ World economic growth is assumed to be 3.9 per cent in 2018 and 2019. ◦ Economic growth in Australia is assumed to be 3.0 per cent in 2018-19. ◦ The Australian dollar is assumed to average US74 cents in 2018-19, lower than the assumed average of US78 cents in 2017-18. • On the supply side, Australian agricultural production prospects are assumed to be below average. ◦ Dry conditions are forecast to have significant implications for crop yields and livestock production cycles in the eastern states. Uncertainties that could affect agricultural commodity production and export growth include supply shocks in Australia or international markets (such as natural disasters, drought and disease outbreaks) or unexpected economic events that affect trade and economic growth. Boxes on agricultural issues Evolving EU biodiesel policies • Proposed changes to the EU renewable fuels policy could increase demand for Australia's canola exports in the short to medium term. • Since 2010-11 the European Union has been the largest export market for Australian canola. Most canola is imported to produce renewable transport fuel.