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TwitterThe statistic shows the growth rate in the real GDP in the United Kingdom from 2020 to 2024, with projections up until 2030. In 2024, the rate of GDP growth in the United Kingdom was at around 1.1 percent compared to the previous year.The economy of the United KingdomGDP is used an indicator as to the shape of a national economy. It is one of the most regularly called upon measurements regarding the economic fitness of a country. GDP is the total market value of all final goods and services that have been produced in a country within a given period of time, usually a year. Inflation adjusted real GDP figures serve as an even more telling indication of a country’s economic state in that they act as a more reliable and clear tool as to a nation’s economic health. The gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate in the United Kingdom has started to level in recent years after taking a huge body blow in the financial collapse of 2008. The UK managed to rise from the state of dark desperation it was in between 2009 and 2010, from -3.97 to 1.8 percent. The country suffered acutely from the collapse of the banking industry, raising a number of questions within the UK with regards to the country’s heavy reliance on revenues coming from London's financial sector, arguably the most important in the world and one of the globe’s financial command centers. Since the collapse of the post-war consensus and the rise of Thatcherism, the United Kingdom has been swept along in a wave of individualism - collective ideals have been abandoned and the mass privatisation of the heavy industries was unveiled - opening them up to market competition and shifting the economic focus to that of service.The Big Bang policy, one of the cornerstones of the Thatcher government programs of reform, involved mass and sudden deregulation of financial markets. This led to huge changes in the way the financial markets in London work, and saw the many old firms being absorbed by big banks. This, one could argue, strengthened the UK financial sector greatly and while frivolous and dangerous practices brought the sector into great disrepute, the city of London alone brings in around one fifth of the countries national income making it a very prominent contributor to wealth in the UK.
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TwitterForecasts for the UK economy is a monthly comparison of independent forecasts.
Please note that this is a summary of published material reflecting the views of the forecasting organisations themselves and does not in any way provide new information on the Treasury’s own views. It contains only a selection of forecasters, which is subject to review.
No significance should be attached to the inclusion or exclusion of any particular forecasting organisation. HM Treasury accepts no responsibility for the accuracy of material published in this comparison.
This month’s edition of the forecast comparison contains short-term forecasts for 2022 and 2023.
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TwitterWith the onset of the Global Financial Crisis in the late Summer of 2007, the United Kingdom was one of the first countries to experience financial panic after the United States. In September 2007, the bank Northern Rock became the UK's first bank to collapse in 150 years due to a bank run, as depositors reacted to the announcement that the bank would be seeking emergency liquidity support from the Bank of England by lining up outside their bank branches to withdraw money. The failure of Northern Rock was a bad omen for the UK economy and financial sector, as banks stopped lending to each other and to customers in what became known as the 'credit crunch'. Government bailouts, private bailouts By October 2008, many UK banks were facing a situation where if they did not receive external assistance, then they would have to default on their debts and likely have to declare bankruptcy. The UK's Labour government, led by Prime Minister Gordon Brown, announced that it would provide emergency funds to stabilize the banking system, leading to the part or full nationalization of some of Britain's largest financial firms. Specifically, Royal Bank of Scotland, Lloyds TSB, and HBOS received over 35 billion pounds in a government cash injection, while Barclays opted to seek investment from private investors in order to avoid nationalization, much of which came from the state of Qatar. The bailouts caused UK government debt ratios to almost double over the period of the crisis, while public trust in the financial system sank.
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TwitterThe gross domestic product of the United Kingdom in 2024 was around 2.78 trillion British pounds, an increase when compared to the previous year, when UK GDP amounted to about 2.75 trillion pounds. The significant drop in GDP visible in 2020 was due to the COVID-19 pandemic, with the smaller declines in 2008 and 2009 because of the global financial crisis of the late 2000s. Low growth problem in the UK Despite growing by 0.9 percent in 2024, and 0.4 percent in 2023 the UK economy is not that much larger than it was before the COVID-19 pandemic. Since recovering from a huge fall in GDP in the second quarter of 2020, the UK economy has alternated between periods of contraction and low growth, with the UK even in a recession at the end of 2023. While economic growth picked up somewhat in 2024, GDP per capita is lower than it was in 2022, following two years of negative growth. UK's global share of GDP falling As of 2024, the UK had the sixth-largest economy in the world, behind the United States, China, Japan, Germany, and India. Among European nations, this meant that the UK currently has the second-largest economy in Europe, although the economy of France, Europe's third-largest economy, is of a similar size. The UK's global economic ranking will likely fall in the coming years, however, with the UK's share of global GDP expected to fall from 2.16 percent in 2025 to 2.02 percent by 2029.
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TwitterThe United Kingdom's economy grew by 1.1 percent in 2024, after a growth rate of 0.3 percent in 2023, 5.1 percent in 2022, 8.5 percent in 2021, and a record ten percent fall in 2020. During the provided time period, the biggest annual fall in gross domestic product before 2020 occurred in 2009, when the UK economy contracted by 4.6 percent at the height of the global financial crisis of the late 2000s. Before 2021, the year with the highest annual GDP growth rate was 1973, when the UK economy grew by 6.5 percent. UK economy growing but GDP per capita falling In 2022, the UK's GDP per capita amounted to approximately 37,371 pounds, with this falling to 37,028 pounds in 2023, and 36,977 pounds in 2024. While the UK economy as a whole grew during this time, the UK's population grew at a faster rate, resulting in the negative growth in GDP per capita. This suggests the UK economy's struggles with productivity are not only stagnating, but getting worse. The relatively poor economic performance of the UK in recent years has not gone unnoticed by the electorate, with the economy consistently seen as the most important issue for voters since 2022. Recent shocks to UK economy In the second quarter of 2020, the UK economy shrank by a record 20.3 percent at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic. Although there was a relatively swift economic recovery initially, the economy has struggled to grow much beyond its pre-pandemic size, and was only around 3.1 percent larger in December 2024, when compared with December 2019. Although the labor market has generally been quite resilient during this time, a long twenty-month period between 2021 and 2023 saw prices rise faster than wages, and inflation surge to a high of 11.1 percent in October 2022.
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TwitterIn the third quarter of 2025, the quarterly gross domestic product of the United Kingdom was approximately, 706 billion British pounds, compared with around 705.5 billion pounds in the previous quarter. The large dip in GDP that can be seen in the second quarter of 2020 saw the UK economy fall from 652 billion pounds to 522 billion, with more usual levels of output not recovering until well into 2021. The COVID-19 lockdowns enacted by the UK government at that time was the main reason for this large fall in GDP. Growth lagging as UK heads into 2025 After ending 2023 in recession, the UK economy started 2024 with the strongest quarterly GDP growth in several years, growing by 0.7 percent in the first quarter, and then by 0.4 percent in the second quarter. Economic growth in the second half of the year was, however, far less promising, with GDP flatlining in the third quarter, and monthly GDP shrinking by 0.1 percent in September and then again in October. Although GDP is still forecast to grow in 2025, the overall economic picture is precarious. In November, UK inflation rose to 2.6 percent, compared with just 1.7 percent in September, while the labor market continues to show signs of cooling after a period of high job vacancies and low unemployment. Labour pinning hopes on long-term growth After winning its first general election in 19 years in 2024, the Labour Government has seen its approval ratings plummet in its first few months in office. This shaky start is partly due to a government strategy of making unpopular decisions early in their tenure, which they hope will eventually encourage stable economic growth in the mid to long-term. By far the least popular policy was the withdrawal of winter fuel benefits for a significant number of pensioners, a cost-cutting measure deemed necessary due to the UK's vulnerable public finance position, with government debt at around 100 percent of GDP. A further measure introduced was a national insurance tax increase for employers, with almost half of UK firms citing increased taxes as their main external concern in Q3 2024. Avoiding any further tax rises or cuts to services will depend on if policies in other areas, such as planning reform, will kickstart the UK economy in time before the next election.
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TwitterA recent analysis on the impact of Brexit suggests that in 2023, the United Kingdom's economy was *** percent smaller than it would have been in a base scenario where the UK never left the EU. The estimated hit to the UK's gross domestic product (GDP) increases to ***** percent in 2024, and to *** percent by 2025 in this forecast. UK growth cut at start of turbulent 2025 After growing by *** percent in 2024, the UK economy is expected to grow by *** percent in 2025, down from an earlier forecast of *** percent. As of 2025, the UK economy is approximately *** percent larger than it was just before the COVID-19 pandemic five years earlier, which delivered a sudden and severe economic shock to the country. While the initial bounce back from this collapse was robust, the recovery slowed by the end of 2020, and it wasn't until late 2021 that the economy returned to its pre-pandemic size. Throughout 2022 and 2023, the economy continued to struggle, and even experienced a recession at the end of 2023. How voters feel about Brexit in 2025 Since the middle of 2021, a growing majority of voters in Britain have advised that they think Brexit was the wrong decision. As of January 2025, around ** percent thought it was wrong to leave the EU, compared with just ** percent in April 2021. By comparison, the share of Britons who think Brexit was the right decision has fallen from ** percent to ** percent in the same time period. Voters are, however, still quite divided on what relationship they want with the EU, with only ** percent supporting rejoining completely. Furthermore, Brexit has fallen behind other issues for voters such as the economy, the NHS, and immigration and the issue played a much smaller role in the 2024 election than it did in 2019.
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United Kingdom's main stock market index, the GB100, fell to 9690 points on December 2, 2025, losing 0.13% from the previous session. Over the past month, the index has declined 0.12%, though it remains 15.91% higher than a year ago, according to trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that tracks this benchmark index from United Kingdom. United Kingdom Stock Market Index (GB100) - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on December of 2025.
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The Business Jet market will suffer from the COVID-19 crisis due to the lockdowns occurring in a number of geographies, the imposition of quarantines, the economic collapse resulting from the COVID-19 crisis, as well as the cash flow issues impacting buyers, lessors, financial institutions, and manufacturers. Read More
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BackgroundActive travel has gained traction among policy makers as a promising solution to physical inactivity. Returns on active travel investments, including cycling infrastructure, crucially rely on resulting improvements in population behaviours. Estimating the expected economic value that an additional regular cyclist will generate and being able to identify the behaviour change required at the population level to offset the intervention costs is important to inform future investment decisions.MethodsThe WHO’s Health Economic Assessment Tool was employed to conduct a break-even analysis. A case study methodology was used which focused on a real-world construction project of a separated cycleway in the UK. The economic assessment considered physical activity benefits, air pollution, crash risk and carbon emissions in monetary terms. An iterative computational approach was applied to identify the behaviour change (cycling) requirements, and corresponding benefits valued using international dollars, to break even on the investment costs. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to assess robustness of the base-case results.ResultsOver a ten-year time horizon, an additional regular cyclist (i.e., someone cycling most days of the week) was found to generate $798 (₤533) per annum (international dollars). An additional 267 regular cyclists per km were required to break even on the construction of the new separated cycleway. Estimates were particularly sensitive to variations to age, cycling volume and evaluation time horizon.ConclusionsPolicymakers planning to invest in cycling infrastructure should consider using these reproducible, order-of-magnitude estimates to complement the more comprehensive transport appraisal and budget allocation processes. This would ensure that, when considering its health-related economic benefits, the investment is justifiable on economic sustainability grounds.
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TwitterImmigration was seen by 55 percent of people in the UK as one of the top three issues facing the country in November 2025. The economy was the second-most important issue for voters this month, ahead of health as a distant third. These three issues have consistently been identified as the most important issues for voters. Labour's popularity continues to sink in 2025 Despite winning the 2024 general election with a strong majority, the new Labour government has had its share of struggles since coming to power. Shortly after taking office, the approval rating for Labour stood at -2 percent, but this fell throughout the second half of 2024, and by January 2025 had sunk to a new low of -47 percent. Although this was still higher than the previous government's last approval rating of -56 percent, it is nevertheless a severe review from the electorate. Among several decisions from the government, arguably the least popular was the government withdrawing winter fuel payments. This state benefit, previously paid to all pensioners, is now only paid to those on low incomes, with millions of pensioners not receiving this payment in winter 2024. Sunak's pledges fail to prevent defeat in 2024 With an election on the horizon, and the Labour Party consistently ahead in the polls, addressing voter concerns directly was one of the best chances the Conservatives had of staying in power in 2023. At the start of that year, Rishi Sunak attempted to do this by setting out his five pledges for the next twelve months; halve inflation, grow the economy, reduce national debt, cut NHS waiting times, and stop small boats. A year later, Sunak had at best only partial success in these aims. Although the inflation rate fell, economic growth was weak and even declined in the last two quarters of 2023, although it did return to growth in early 2024. National debt was only expected to fall in the mid to late 2020s, while the trend of increasing NHS waiting times did not reverse. Small boat crossings were down from 2022, but still higher than in 2021 or 2020. .
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TwitterWith the collapse of the U.S. housing market and the subsequent financial crisis on Wall Street in 2007 and 2008, economies across the globe began to enter into deep recessions. What had started out as a crisis centered on the United States quickly became global in nature, as it became apparent that not only had the economies of other advanced countries (grouped together as the G7) become intimately tied to the U.S. financial system, but that many of them had experienced housing and asset price bubbles similar to that in the U.S.. The United Kingdom had experienced a huge inflation of housing prices since the 1990s, while Eurozone members (such as Germany, France and Italy) had financial sectors which had become involved in reckless lending to economies on the periphery of the EU, such as Greece, Ireland and Portugal. Other countries, such as Japan, were hit heavily due their export-led growth models which suffered from the decline in international trade. Unemployment during the Great Recession As business and consumer confidence crashed, credit markets froze, and international trade contracted, the unemployment rate in the most advanced economies shot up. While four to five percent is generally considered to be a healthy unemployment rate, nearing full employment in the economy (when any remaining unemployment is not related to a lack of consumer demand), many of these countries experienced rates at least double that, with unemployment in the United States peaking at almost 10 percent in 2010. In large countries, unemployment rates of this level meant millions or tens of millions of people being out of work, which led to political pressures to stimulate economies and create jobs. By 2012, many of these countries were seeing declining unemployment rates, however, in France and Italy rates of joblessness continued to increase as the Euro crisis took hold. These countries suffered from having a monetary policy which was too tight for their economies (due to the ECB controlling interest rates) and fiscal policy which was constrained by EU debt rules. Left with the option of deregulating their labor markets and pursuing austerity policies, their unemployment rates remained over 10 percent well into the 2010s. Differences in labor markets The differences in unemployment rates at the peak of the crisis (2009-2010) reflect not only the differences in how economies were affected by the downturn, but also the differing labor market institutions and programs in the various countries. Countries with more 'liberalized' labor markets, such as the United States and United Kingdom experienced sharp jumps in their unemployment rate due to the ease at which employers can lay off workers in these countries. When the crisis subsided in these countries, however, their unemployment rates quickly began to drop below those of the other countries, due to their more dynamic labor markets which make it easier to hire workers when the economy is doing well. On the other hand, countries with more 'coordinated' labor market institutions, such as Germany and Japan, experiences lower rates of unemployment during the crisis, as programs such as short-time work, job sharing, and wage restraint agreements were used to keep workers in their jobs. While these countries are less likely to experience spikes in unemployment during crises, the highly regulated nature of their labor markets mean that they are slower to add jobs during periods of economic prosperity.
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TwitterIn 2020, global gross domestic product declined by 6.7 percent as a result of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic outbreak. In Latin America, overall GDP loss amounted to 8.5 percent.
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TwitterIn 2025, the annual unemployment rate of the United Kingdom is expected to be *** percent, compared with *** percent in 2024. Unemployment is forecast to fall to *** percent in 2026, gradually declining to *** percent by 2028. In the UK's last government budget in October 2024, the country's unemployment rate for 2025 was forecast to average out at *** percent, but this was increased to *** percent in the "Spring Statement" on public finances in March 2025. Uptick in unemployment after falling to historic lows A common indicator of an economy’s relative health, the unemployment rate in the UK generally fell throughout most of the 2010s, after reaching *** percent in late 2011. After a sudden increase in unemployment during the COVID-19 pandemic, there was a steep decline that lasted until August 2022, when the unemployment rate was just *** percent. There was then a rise in unemployment from 2023 onwards, which continued throughout 2024 and into 2025. This has been matched by a fall in UK job vacancies, which peaked at *** million in May 2022, but has been falling in most months since then, with approximately ******* vacancies in February 2025. Revisions to GDP and inflation for 2025 Since the global financial crisis of the late 2000s, and especially since the COVID-19 pandemic, the UK's economic growth has been poor, with the UK alternating between weak growth and slight contractions. For 2025, the UK economy is set to grow by just *** percent, a downgrade from *** percent predicted in late 2024. Inflation, which skyrocketed from late 2021 onwards, reached a peak of **** percent in October 2022, and although down to more usual levels by 2024, is expected to rise in 2025, reaching around *** percent by the second half of the year.
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TwitterIn October 2025, 63 percent of households in Great Britain reported that their cost of living had increased in the previous month, compared with 72 percent in April. Although the share of people reporting a cost of living increase has generally been falling since August 2022, when 91 percent of households reported an increase, the most recent figures indicate that the Cost of Living Crisis is still ongoing for many households in the UK. Crisis ligers even as inflation falls Although various factors have been driving the Cost of Living Crisis in Britain, high inflation has undoubtedly been one of the main factors. After several years of relatively low inflation, the CPI inflation rate shot up from 2021 onwards, hitting a high of 11.1 percent in October 2022. In the months since that peak, inflation has fallen to more usual levels, and was 2.5 percent in December 2024, slightly up from 1.7 percent in September. Since June 2023, wages have also started to grow at a faster rate than inflation, albeit after a long period where average wages were falling relative to overall price increases. Economy continues to be the main issue for voters Ahead of the last UK general election, the economy was consistently selected as the main issue for voters for several months. Although the Conservative Party was seen by voters as the best party for handling the economy before October 2022, this perception collapsed following the market's reaction to Liz Truss' mini-budget. Even after changing their leader from Truss to Rishi Sunak, the Conservatives continued to fall in the polls, and would go onto lose the election decisively. Since the election, the economy remains the most important issue in the UK, although it was only slightly ahead of immigration and health as of January 2025.
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TwitterIn 2024/25, the United Kingdom's defence spending as a share of Gross Domestic Product is estimated to be 2.2 percent. During this time period, the UK's defence spending was at its highest in 1955/56 when 7.6 percent of the UK's GDP was spent on the military. Defence spending has fallen considerably throughout this period, especially after 1984/85, and then at a much faster pace after the end of the Cold War in 1991. It is estimated that defence spending as a share of GDP fell to its lowest level between 2016/17 and 2018/19 when it was just 1.8 percent. Armed forces fall to record lows in 2024 Since the early 1950s, there has been a consistent reduction in the size of the UK's armed forces. The importance of Britain maintaining a large standing army declined following the collapse of the British Empire by the late 1970s, and the end of the Cold War around a decade later. At the start of the 1990s, there were approximately 300,000 personnel in the armed forces, with this falling to 200,000 by 2005. Following a further strategic review of the army's capabilities in 2010, additional cuts to personnel were implemented, with cuts of approximately 50,000 throughout the 2010s. As of 2024, there were 75,320 personnel in the Army, 30,800 in the Royal Air Force, and 32,000 in the Royal Navy and Marines, a total of 138,120 active personnel. The UK and NATO The UK is one of the twelve founding members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), a military alliance formed in 1949. NATO's initial purpose was to defend Western Europe against the Soviet Union, with its role evolving to include peacekeeping and counter-terrorism after the end of the Cold War. As of 2025, the alliance includes 32 nations, with just two of these (Canada and the United States) outside of Europe. The United States is by far the largest military power in the alliance, dominating in terms of manpower, equipment, and military spending. Donald Trump's return to the White House in 2025, who has been skeptical of NATO, may prove difficult for the alliance should he distance the U.S. from Europe's security challenges.
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TwitterThe statistic shows the growth rate in the real GDP in the United Kingdom from 2020 to 2024, with projections up until 2030. In 2024, the rate of GDP growth in the United Kingdom was at around 1.1 percent compared to the previous year.The economy of the United KingdomGDP is used an indicator as to the shape of a national economy. It is one of the most regularly called upon measurements regarding the economic fitness of a country. GDP is the total market value of all final goods and services that have been produced in a country within a given period of time, usually a year. Inflation adjusted real GDP figures serve as an even more telling indication of a country’s economic state in that they act as a more reliable and clear tool as to a nation’s economic health. The gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate in the United Kingdom has started to level in recent years after taking a huge body blow in the financial collapse of 2008. The UK managed to rise from the state of dark desperation it was in between 2009 and 2010, from -3.97 to 1.8 percent. The country suffered acutely from the collapse of the banking industry, raising a number of questions within the UK with regards to the country’s heavy reliance on revenues coming from London's financial sector, arguably the most important in the world and one of the globe’s financial command centers. Since the collapse of the post-war consensus and the rise of Thatcherism, the United Kingdom has been swept along in a wave of individualism - collective ideals have been abandoned and the mass privatisation of the heavy industries was unveiled - opening them up to market competition and shifting the economic focus to that of service.The Big Bang policy, one of the cornerstones of the Thatcher government programs of reform, involved mass and sudden deregulation of financial markets. This led to huge changes in the way the financial markets in London work, and saw the many old firms being absorbed by big banks. This, one could argue, strengthened the UK financial sector greatly and while frivolous and dangerous practices brought the sector into great disrepute, the city of London alone brings in around one fifth of the countries national income making it a very prominent contributor to wealth in the UK.