From the onset of the Global Financial Crisis in the Summer of 2007, the world economy experienced an almost unprecedented period of turmoil in which millions of people were made unemployed, businesses declared bankruptcy en masse, and structurally critical financial institutions failed. The crisis was triggered by the collapse of the U.S. housing market and subsequent losses by investment banks such as Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers, and Merrill Lynch. These institutions, which had become over-leveraged with complex financial securities known as derivatives, were tied to each other through a web of financial contracts, meaning that the collapse of one investment bank could trigger the collapse of several others. As Lehman Brothers failed on September 15. 2008, becoming the largest bankruptcy in U.S. history, shockwaves were felt throughout the global financial system. The sudden stop of flows of credit worldwide caused a financial panic and sent most of the world's largest economies into a deep recession, later known as the Great Recession. The World Economy in recession
More than any other period in history, the world economy had become highly interconnected and interdependent over the period from the 1970s to 2007. As governments liberalized financial flows, banks and other financial institutions could take money in one country and invest it in another part of the globe. Financial institutions and other non-financial companies became multinational, meaning that they had subsidiaries and partners in many regions. All this meant that when Wall Street, the center of global finance in New York City, was shaken by bankruptcies and credit freezes in late 2007, other advanced economies did not need to wait long to feel the tremors. All of the G7 countries, the seven most economically advanced western-aligned countries, entered recession in 2008, before experiencing an even deeper trough in 2009. While all returned to growth by 2010, this was less stable in the countries of the Eurozone (Germany, France, Italy) over the following years due to the Eurozone crisis, as well as in Japan, which has had issues with low growth since the mid-1990s.

Due to increasing inflation rates, economic growth has been slow in several countries worldwide, and some risk falling into recession. When asked about this, 76 percent of respondents in South Korea believed that the country's economy had fallen into recession, and 75 percent of respondents in Turkey did the same. In fact, South Korea's gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate increased by 1.4 percent in the third quarter of 2023. Inflation increased rapidly around the world through 2022 and 2023, before it started falling in some countries in 2024.

Graph and download economic data for OECD based Recession Indicators for Major Seven Countries from the Peak through the Trough (MSCRECM) from Feb 1960 to Aug 2022 about G7, peak, trough, and recession indicators.

Graph and download economic data for OECD based Recession Indicators for Four Big European Countries from the Peak through the Trough (4BIGEURORECDM) from 1960-02-01 to 2022-08-31 about 4 Big European Countries, peak, trough, and recession indicators.

United States Recession Probability data was reported at 14.120 % in Oct 2019. This records a decrease from the previous number of 14.505 % for Sep 2019. United States Recession Probability data is updated monthly, averaging 7.668 % from Jan 1960 (Median) to Oct 2019, with 718 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 95.405 % in Dec 1981 and a record low of 0.080 % in Sep 1983. United States Recession Probability data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.S021: Recession Probability.

As of 2019, Argentina was the country that spent the most time in economic recession in the Americas since 1950. Up to one third of the time since 1950, the Argentine economy was in contraction. In Venezuela, the percentage of time in recession amounted to 28 percent in the same period, whereas in the U.S. it represented around ten percent.

In 2023, about 21.6 billion U.S. dollars' worth of commercial mortgage-based securities (CMBS) originations were issued in the United States. These are fixed income investment products which are backed by mortgages on commercial properties. The value of originations peaked in 2007 before the financial crisis at 241 billion U.S. dollars. Commercial mortgage delinquencies increased during the COVID-19 pandemic, especially in the hotel and retail sectors.

The survey charted Finnish opinion on and knowledge of the country's development cooperation, its importance, content, objectives, and allocation. Some questions focused on the UN Millennium Development Goals. The respondents were asked whether they considered development cooperation to be important, and why. Opinions on the most important goals and areas (e.g. education, health care, industry) for development aid were surveyed as well as where in the world it should be directed. The respondents' familiarity with the UN Millennium Development Goals was surveyed. They were also asked to select the most important goals. Further questions focused on development cooperation and its importance, the most important goals of Finland's development policy, and areas in which Finland has something to give to developing countries in particular. Views on whether development cooperation increased international security were probed. Some questions probed the respondents' views on how Finland should take into account developing countries in climate change issues. Opinions on the relationship between Finland's trade and development policy were also queried. They were also asked whose responsibility it is to help developing countries to survive the financial crisis. Some questions pertained to whether there was enough information available on development cooperation and developing countries, whether more information should be available on some topics, and from which sources the respondents had received most information. They also evaluated the reliability of the information given by the authorities, civil society groups, and the media. In addition, they were asked to choose five most important forms of development cooperation and to sort them in order of importance. Views on the amount of funds Finland spent on development cooperation in 2008 (as per cent of the GNP) were probed, as well as opinions on the amount of funds Finland should spend. The respondents were also asked whether Finland should increase the amount of funds allocated to development cooperation in the light of the current financial situation. Those who thought the amount of funds should be increased were asked how the increase should be financed. All the respondents were asked whether Finland's development cooperation was effective and successful. Opinions were explored on the greatest challenges of development cooperation. The respondents' satisfaction on Finland's actions in relation to different crises and disasters was also investigated. They also gave their opinions on how individuals could best help developing countries. Finally, the respondents were asked how important they considered that the origin of development aid is visible in Finnish development cooperation targets. Background variables included the respondent's gender, age, occupation, province of residence, and household size.

Group of Seven (G7) - OECD based Recession Indicators for Major Seven Countries from the Period following the Peak through the Trough was 0.00000 +1 or 0 in August of 2021, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, Group of Seven (G7) - OECD based Recession Indicators for Major Seven Countries from the Period following the Peak through the Trough reached a record high of 1.00000 in March of 1960 and a record low of 0.00000 in February of 1961. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for Group of Seven (G7) - OECD based Recession Indicators for Major Seven Countries from the Period following the Peak through the Trough - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on March of 2025.

We show that a simple and intuitive three-parameter equation fits remarkably well the evolution of the gross domestic product (GDP) in current and constant dollars of many countries during times of recession and recovery. We then argue that this equation is the response function of the economy to isolated shocks, hence that it can be used to detect large and small shocks, including those which do not lead to a recession; we also discuss its predictive power. Finally, a two-sector toy model of recession and recovery illustrates how the severity and length of recession depends on the dynamics of transfer rate between the growing and failing parts of the economy.

OECD based Recession Indicators for Four Big European Countries from the Peak through the Trough was 0.00000 +1 or 0 in August of 2021, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, OECD based Recession Indicators for Four Big European Countries from the Peak through the Trough reached a record high of 1.00000 in May of 1962 and a record low of 0.00000 in March of 1960. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for OECD based Recession Indicators for Four Big European Countries from the Peak through the Trough - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on March of 2025.

Haiti is expected to experience the worst economic recession in Latin America and the Caribbean in 2024. Haiti's gross domestic product (GDP) in 2024 is forecast to be 3 percent lower than the value registered in 2023, based on constant prices. Aside from Argentina, Haiti, and Puerto Rico, most economies in the region were likely to experience economic growth in 2024, most notably, Guyana.

Recession Experience by Country.

The gross domestic product (GDP) of all G7 countries decreased sharply in 2009 and 2020 due to the financial crisis and COVID-19 pandemic, respectively. The growth decline was heavier after the COVID-19 pandemic than the financial crisis. Moreover, Italy had a negative GDP growth rate in 2012 and 2013 following the euro crisis. In 2023, Germany experienced an economic recession.

Content

More details about each file are in the individual file descriptions.

Context

This is a dataset from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis hosted by the Federal Reserve Economic Database (FRED). FRED has a data platform found here and they update their information according to the frequency that the data updates. Explore the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using Kaggle and all of the data sources available through the St. Louis Fed organization page!

• Update Frequency: This dataset is updated daily.

Acknowledgements

This dataset is maintained using FRED's API and Kaggle's API.

Cover photo by Eddy Billard on Unsplash
Unsplash Images are distributed under a unique Unsplash License.

In 2023, the GDP of the United States increased by about 2.5 percent compared to the previous year. This comes amid high nflation rates globally, and countries such as Argentina and Germany even experiencing economic decline. GDP refers to the total market value of all goods and services that are produced within a country per year. It is an important indicator to measure the economic strength of a country.

The 1973-1975 recession marked the end of a remarkably prosperous period for developed economies. Apart from the United States, who experienced a brief recession in 1969-70, the other nations had enjoyed a period of uninterrupted growth in the 25 years leading up to this event. Japan in particular had the fastest growth of any major economy. This ended, however, following the 1973 oil crisis, which saw the member states of the OAPEC (Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries) place an embargo on the nations who supported Israel during the Yom Kippur War, particularly the U.S., who supplied arms to Israel. As a result, oil prices quadrupled in some periods; the U.S. and most of its major economic partners then went into recession due to their dependency on oil imports. Additional factors exacerbated the effects of the recession in each country, such as the miners' strike in the United Kingdom, or Nixon's unstable economic policies in the early 1970s. It was not until 1976 when the major OECD economies would come out of their recession, although real GDP growth rates would not return to the consistent highs experienced in the 1950s and 1960s. Additionally, while GDP growth resumed within a few years, inflation rates and unemployment rates generally remained higher going into the 1980s.

Probability of Recession: United States data was reported at 0.697 % in Jan 2025. This records a decrease from the previous number of 0.972 % for Dec 2024. Probability of Recession: United States data is updated monthly, averaging 1.583 % from Jan 1980 (Median) to Jan 2025, with 541 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 88.024 % in May 2020 and a record low of 0.021 % in Jan 1980. Probability of Recession: United States data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by CEIC Data. The data is categorized under World Trend Plus’s CEIC Leading Indicator – Table US.S002: Probability of Recession.

We investigate the heterogeneous boom and bust patterns across countries that emerge as a result of global shocks. Our analysis sheds light on the emergence of core and periphery countries, and the joint determination of the depth of recessions and tightness of credit across countries. The model implies that interest rates are similar across core and periphery countries in booms, with larger credit and output growth in periphery countries. However, a common global shock that leads to a credit crunch across the globe gives rise to a sharper spike in interest rates and a deeper recession in periphery countries, while a credit flight to the core alleviates the adverse consequences in these countries. We explore the implication of the model about credit spreads, portfolio rebalancing, investment, non-performing debt and concentration of debt ownership during booms and busts, both in the time series and in the cross-section, and connect them to existing stylized facts. We further demonstrate how the anatomy of the global economy evolves as a result of aggregate demand and supply shocks to financing, such as a global saving glut.

The Great Recession undoubtedly reduced the electoral prospects of incumbent parties, coherently with the expectations of the economic vote theory. Yet, the exceptionality of the period may have displaced other elements of that theory, such as, for instance, the moderating impact that globalization is supposed to have on the retrospective mechanism. By using an original dataset comparing 168 elections in 38 democratic countries in the period 2000–2015, we detail how the crisis modified and even reversed that conditional effect. Furthermore, we differentiate our results by separating the impact of economic openness from that of political globalization. In so doing, we improve our understanding of the mechanisms that trigger the conditional effect on the economic vote in normal and exceptional times.