Of the G7 countries, Canada, the United Kingdom, and the United States were forecast to have a constant population ******** until 2050. In Japan, Germany, and Italy, the population is forecast to constantly ******* due to aging populations and falling fertility rates. In France, the population was first expected to decline by 2048.

Tools to locate the dataset tables and supporting documentation for the 2014, 2016, 2018, 2020, 2021 and 2022-based national population projections. Contains links to the principal and (where available) variant projections for the UK and constituent countries for 100 years ahead.

From now until 2100, India and China will remain the most populous countries in the world, however China's population decline has already started, and it is on course to fall by around 50 percent in the 2090s; while India's population decline is projected to begin in the 2060s. Of the 10 most populous countries in the world in 2100, five will be located in Asia, four in Africa, as well as the United States. Rapid growth in Africa Rapid population growth across Africa will see the continent's population grow from around 1.5 billion people in 2024 to 3.8 billion in 2100. Additionally, unlike China or India, population growth in many of these countries is not expected to go into decline, and instead is expected to continue well into the 2100s. Previous estimates had projected these countries' populations would be much higher by 2100 (the 2019 report estimated Nigeria's population would exceed 650 million), yet the increased threat of the climate crisis and persistent instability is delaying demographic development and extending population growth. The U.S. as an outlier Compared to the nine other largest populations in 2100, the United States stands out as it is more demographically advanced, politically stable, and economically stronger. However, while most other so-called "advanced countries" are projected to see their population decline drastically in the coming decades, the U.S. population is projected to continue growing into the 2100s. This will largely be driven by high rates of immigration into the U.S., which will drive growth despite fertility rates being around 1.6 births per woman (below the replacement level of 2.1 births per woman), and the slowing rate of life expectancy. Current projections estimate the U.S. will have a net migration rate over 1.2 million people per year for the remainder of the century.

The world's population first reached one billion people in 1805, and reached eight billion in 2022, and will peak at almost 10.2 billion by the end of the century. Although it took thousands of years to reach one billion people, it did so at the beginning of a phenomenon known as the demographic transition; from this point onwards, population growth has skyrocketed, and since the 1960s the population has increased by one billion people every 12 to 15 years. The demographic transition sees a sharp drop in mortality due to factors such as vaccination, sanitation, and improved food supply; the population boom that follows is due to increased survival rates among children and higher life expectancy among the general population; and fertility then drops in response to this population growth. Regional differences The demographic transition is a global phenomenon, but it has taken place at different times across the world. The industrialized countries of Europe and North America were the first to go through this process, followed by some states in the Western Pacific. Latin America's population then began growing at the turn of the 20th century, but the most significant period of global population growth occurred as Asia progressed in the late-1900s. As of the early 21st century, almost two-thirds of the world's population lives in Asia, although this is set to change significantly in the coming decades. Future growth The growth of Africa's population, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa, will have the largest impact on global demographics in this century. From 2000 to 2100, it is expected that Africa's population will have increased by a factor of almost five. It overtook Europe in size in the late 1990s, and overtook the Americas a few years later. In contrast to Africa, Europe's population is now in decline, as birth rates are consistently below death rates in many countries, especially in the south and east, resulting in natural population decline. Similarly, the population of the Americas and Asia are expected to go into decline in the second half of this century, and only Oceania's population will still be growing alongside Africa. By 2100, the world's population will have over three billion more than today, with the vast majority of this concentrated in Africa. Demographers predict that climate change is exacerbating many of the challenges that currently hinder progress in Africa, such as political and food instability; if Africa's transition is prolonged, then it may result in further population growth that would place a strain on the region's resources, however, curbing this growth earlier would alleviate some of the pressure created by climate change.

Population projections for Pacific Island Countries and territories from 1950 to 2050, by sex and by 5-years age groups.

Find more Pacific data on PDH.stat.

2024 population count by country and land area size of the country. Also included: Historical populations for 1980, 2000, and 2010. United Nations population estimates for 2023 and 2024. United Nations population projections for 2030 and 2050. Whether or not the country is a member of the United Nations. Population change from 2023-2024. Growth rate from 2023-2024. Percentage of 2024 population. 2024 Population Density.

This statistic shows the twenty countries with the projected largest urban populations worldwide in 2050. Forecasts estimate that the urban population of China will be **** billion people in 2050.

this graph was created in OurDataWorld:

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Population growth is one of the most important topics we cover at Our World in Data.

For most of human history, the global population was a tiny fraction of what it is today. Over the last few centuries, the human population has gone through an extraordinary change. In 1800, there were one billion people. Today there are more than 8 billion of us.

But after a period of very fast population growth, demographers expect the world population to peak by the end of this century.

On this page, you will find all of our data, charts, and writing on changes in population growth. This includes how populations are distributed worldwide, how this has changed, and what demographers expect for the future. Geographical maps show us where the world's landmasses are; not where people are. That means they don't always give us an accurate picture of how global living standards are changing.

One way to understand the distribution of people worldwide is to redraw the world map – not based on the area but according to population.

This is shown here as a population cartogram: a geographical presentation of the world where the size of countries is not drawn according to the distribution of land but by the distribution of people. It’s shown for the year 2018.

As the population size rather than the territory is shown in this map, you can see some significant differences when you compare it to the standard geographical map we’re most familiar with.

Small countries with a high population density increase in size in this cartogram relative to the world maps we are used to – look at Bangladesh, Taiwan, or the Netherlands. Large countries with a small population shrink in size – look for Canada, Mongolia, Australia, or Russia.

The Global Population Count Grid Time Series Estimates provide a back-cast time series of population grids based on the year 2000 population grid from SEDAC's Global Rural-Urban Mapping Project, Version 1 (GRUMPv1) data set. The grids were created by using rates of population change between decades from the coarser resolution History Database of the Global Environment (HYDE) database to back-cast the GRUMPv1 population count grids. Mismatches between the spatial extent of the HYDE calculated rates and GRUMPv1 population data were resolved via infilling rate cells based on a focal mean of values. Finally, the grids were adjusted so that the population totals for each country equaled the UN World Population Prospects (2008 Revision) estimates for that country for the respective year (1970, 1980, 1990, and 2000). These data do not represent census observations for the years prior to 2000, and therefore can at best be thought of as estimations of the populations in given locations. The population grids are consistent internally within the time series, but are not recommended for use in creating longer time series with any other population grids, including GRUMPv1, Gridded Population of the World, Version 4 (GPWv4), or non-SEDAC developed population grids. These population grids served as an input to SEDAC's Global Estimated Net Migration Grids by Decade: 1970-2000 data set.

This dataset provides population data for all 195 recognized countries over a span of 11 years (2014–2024). Each country's population is projected using a base population from 2014 and realistic annual growth rates ranging between 0.5% and 3%. This dataset is ideal for demographic studies, trend analysis, and data visualization.

The population figures are simulated but based on reasonable assumptions about growth rates to ensure a realistic representation.

United States US: Population Projection: Mid Year data was reported at 420,267,733.000 Person in 2060. This records an increase from the previous number of 418,161,420.000 Person for 2059. United States US: Population Projection: Mid Year data is updated yearly, averaging 295,516,599.000 Person from Jun 1950 (Median) to 2060, with 111 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 420,267,733.000 Person in 2060 and a record low of 151,868,000.000 Person in 1950. United States US: Population Projection: Mid Year data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by US Census Bureau. The data is categorized under Global Database’s USA – Table US.US Census Bureau: Demographic Projection.

The West Africa Coastal Vulnerability Mapping: Population Projections, 2030 and 2050 data set is based on an unreleased working version of the Gridded Population of the World (GPW), Version 4, year 2010 population count raster but at a coarser 5 arc-minute resolution. Bryan Jones of Baruch College produced country-level projections based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 4 (SSP4). SSP4 reflects a divided world where cities that have relatively high standards of living, are attractive to internal and international migrants. In low income countries, rapidly growing rural populations live on shrinking areas of arable land due to both high population pressure and expansion of large-scale mechanized farming by international agricultural firms. This pressure induces large migration flow to the cities, contributing to fast urbanization, although urban areas do not provide many opportUnities for the poor and there is a massive expansion of slums and squatter settlements. This scenario may not be the most likely for the West Africa region, but it has internal coherence and is at least plausible.

About

The 2024 Revision of World Population Prospects is the twenty-eighth edition of official United Nations population estimates and projections that have been prepared by the Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat. It presents population estimates from 1950 to the present for 237 countries or areas, underpinned by analyses of historical demographic trends. This latest assessment considers the results of 1,910 national population censuses conducted between 1950 and 2023, as well as information from vital registration systems and from 3,189 nationally representative sample surveys. The 2024 revision also presents population projections to the year 2100 that reflect a range of plausible outcomes at the global, regional and national levels.

Column Description

• Total Population, as of 1 January (thousands)
• Total Population, as of 1 July (thousands)
• Male Population, as of 1 July (thousands)
• Female Population, as of 1 July (thousands)
• Population Density, as of 1 July (persons per square km) (UPDATED on 14 July 2022)
• Population Sex Ratio, as of 1 July (males per 100 females)
• Median Age, as of 1 July (years)
• Natural Change, Births minus Deaths (thousands)
• Rate of Natural Change (per 1,000 population)
• Population Change (thousands)
• Population Growth Rate (percentage)
• Population Annual Doubling Time (years)
• Births (thousands)
• Births by women aged 15 to 19 (thousands)
• Crude Birth Rate (births per 1,000 population)
• Total Fertility Rate (live births per woman)
• Net Reproduction Rate (surviving daughters per woman)
• Mean Age Childbearing (years)
• Sex Ratio at Birth (males per 100 female births)
• Total Deaths (thousands)
• Male Deaths (thousands)
• Female Deaths (thousands)
• Crude Death Rate (deaths per 1,000 population)
• Life Expectancy at Birth, both sexes (years)
• Male Life Expectancy at Birth (years)
• Female Life Expectancy at Birth (years)
• Life Expectancy at Age 15, both sexes (years)
• Male Life Expectancy at Age 15 (years)
• Female Life Expectancy at Age 15 (years)
• Life Expectancy at Age 65, both sexes (years)
• Male Life Expectancy at Age 65 (years)
• Female Life Expectancy at Age 65 (years)
• Life Expectancy at Age 80, both sexes (years)
• Male Life Expectancy at Age 80 (years)
• Female Life Expectancy at Age 80 (years)
• Infant Deaths, under age 1 (thousands)
• Infant Mortality Rate (infant deaths per 1,000 live births)
• Live Births Surviving to Age 1 (thousands)
• Under-Five Deaths, under age 5 (thousands)
• Under-Five Mortality (deaths under age 5 per 1,000 live births)
• Mortality before Age 40, both sexes (deaths under age 40 per 1,000 live births)
• Male Mortality before Age 40 (deaths under age 40 per 1,000 male live births)
• Female Mortality before Age 40 (deaths under age 40 per 1,000 female live births)
• Mortality before Age 60, both sexes (deaths under age 60 per 1,000 live births)
• Male Mortality before Age 60 (deaths under age 60 per 1,000 male live births)
• Female Mortality before Age 60 (deaths under age 60 per 1,000 female live births)
• Mortality between Age 15 and 50, both sexes (deaths under age 50 per 1,000 alive at age 15)
• Male Mortality between Age 15 and 50 (deaths under age 50 per 1,000 males alive at age 15)
• Female Mortality between Age 15 and 50 (deaths under age 50 per 1,000 females alive at age 15)
• Mortality between Age 15 and 60, both sexes (deaths under age 60 per 1,000 alive at age 15)
• Male Mortality between Age 15 and 60 (deaths under age 60 per 1,000 males alive at age 15)
• Female Mortality between Age 15 and 60 (deaths under age 60 per 1,000 females alive at age 15)
• Net Number of Migrants (thousands)
• Net Migration Rate (per 1,000 population)

Copyright © 2024 by United Nations, made available under a Creative Commons license CC BY 3.0 IGO: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/ Suggested citation: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2024). World Population Prospects 2024, Online Edition.

Foto von kazi arifuzzaman auf Unsplash

The Demographic Projections (PD) are estimations of the short- and medium-term future population, based on knowledge of demographic phenomena and using the demographic indicators of deaths, fertility and migrations. The population figures by age and sex are projected under various hypotheses called perspectives, for the Basque Country as a whole and for each of its provinces.

The Low Elevation Coastal Zone (LECZ) Urban-Rural Population and Land Area Estimates, Version 2 data set consists of country-level estimates of urban population, rural population, total population and land area country-wide and in LECZs for years 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2100. The LECZs were derived from Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM), 3 arc-second (~90m) data which were post processed by ISciences LLC to include only elevations less than 20m contiguous to coastlines; and to supplement SRTM data in northern and southern latitudes. The population and land area statistics presented herein are summarized at the low coastal elevations of less than or equal to 1m, 3m, 5m, 7m, 9m, 10m, 12m, and 20m. Additionally, estimates are provided for elevations greater than 20m, and nationally. The spatial coverage of this data set includes 202 of the 232 countries and statistical areas delineated in the Gridded Rural-Urban Mapping Project version 1 (GRUMPv1) data set. The 30 omitted areas were not included because they were landlocked, or otherwise lacked coastal features. This data set makes use of the population inputs of GRUMPv1 allocated at 3 arc-seconds to match the SRTM elevations, and at 30 arc-seconds resolution in order to reflect uncertainty levels in the product resulting from the interplay of input population data resolutions (based on census units) and the elevation data. Urban and rural areas are differentiated by the GRUMPv1 Urban Extents. This data set is produced by the Columbia University Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN). To provide estimates of urban and rural populations and land areas for the years 1990, 2000, and 2010; and projections to the year 2100 for 202 countries with contiguous coastal elevations in the following categories: less than or equal to 1m, 3m, 5m, 7m, 9m, 10m, 12m, or 20m; as well as national totals.

Africa's population is projected to grow significantly in the coming years. Estimates conducted in July 2020 show that Nigeria, the most populous country on the continent, would reach around *** million inhabitants by 2100. Compared to 2021, when the country counted *** million people, this would represent an impressive growth of around *** percent. The Democratic Republic of the Congo is estimated to be the second most populous nation on the African continent, reaching *** million individuals. According to the study, nine countries in Africa would exceed 100 million people by 2100.

This dataset provides comprehensive global population dynamics data, spanning from 1950 to 2100. It includes historical estimates and medium-scenario projections from the United Nations World Population Prospects 2024 edition. Covering 237 countries or areas, this dataset offers researchers, policymakers, and data enthusiasts a valuable resource for analyzing long-term demographic trends and their potential impacts across a 150-year period.

Key features of this dataset include:

• Annual birth and death figures for each country/area
• Historical estimates from 1950 to 2024
• Medium-scenario projections from 2024 to 2100
• Data for both sexes combined and all age groups
• Consistent methodology across countries for comparability

This dataset is ideal for:

• Long-term demographic trend analysis and forecasting
• Historical population studies and future projections
• Policy planning for healthcare, education, and social services
• Economic growth and labor force projections over extended periods
• Environmental impact studies related to population changes
• Academic research in social sciences, public health, and historical demography

Whether you're a data scientist, historian, policymaker, or social researcher, this dataset offers a wealth of information to explore and analyze global population dynamics across a century and a half.

The Global Population Count Grid Time Series Estimates provide a back-cast time series of population grids based on the year 2000 population grid from SEDAC's Global Rural-Urban Mapping Project, Version 1 (GRUMPv1) data set. The grids were created by using rates of population change between decades from the coarser resolution History Database of the Global Environment (HYDE) database to back-cast the GRUMPv1 population count grids. Mismatches between the spatial extent of the HYDE calculated rates and GRUMPv1 population data were resolved via infilling rate cells based on a focal mean of values. Finally, the grids were adjusted so that the population totals for each country equaled the UN World Population Prospects (2008 Revision) estimates for that country for the respective year (1970, 1980, 1990, and 2000). These data do not represent census observations for the years prior to 2000, and therefore can at best be thought of as estimations of the populations in given locations. The population grids are consistent internally within the time series, but are not recommended for use in creating longer time series with any other population grids, including GRUMPv1, Gridded Population of the World, Version 4 (GPWv4), or non-SEDAC developed population grids. These population grids served as an input to SEDAC's Global Estimated Net Migration Grids by Decade: 1970-2000 data set.

Context: This is a list of countries and dependencies by population, offering a detailed snapshot of the world’s population distribution. It includes the latest population estimates, percentages of the global population, and the date of each estimate.

Sources: The data is collected from "List of countries and dependencies by Population" from Wikipedia.

Inspiration: The inspiration for this dataset stems from the need for accessible, up-to-date demographic data to analyze population trends across countries.

EUROPOP2019 are the latest Eurostat population projections produced at national and subnational levels for 31 countries: all 27 European Union (EU) Member States and four European Free Trade Association (EFTA) countries, covering the time horizon from 2019 to 2100.

Population projections are 'what-if scenario' that aim to show the hypothetically developments of the population size and its structure based on a sets of assumptions for fertility, mortality and net migration; they are presented for a long time period that covers more than a half-century (50 years).

The datasets at national level are composed by the baseline population projections and five sensitivity tests, namely:

• no migration – it is assumed that the net migration is set to zero in each year of the entire horizon of projections;
• lower migration – it is assumed that the net migration is 33% lower than in the baseline assumptions, in each year of the entire horizon of projections;
• higher migration – it is assumed that the net migration is 33% higher than in the baseline assumptions, in each year of the entire horizon of projections;
• lower fertility - it is assumed that the fertility rates are lower 20% than in the baseline assumptions, in each year of the entire horizon of projections;
• lower mortality - it is assumed that the mortality rates are decreased such that the life expectancy at birth will increase of about two years by 2070 when compared with the baseline assumptions.

Data are available by single year time interval, as follows:

• Projected population on 1 January by age and sex;
• Assumptions on future age-specific fertility rates, probabilities of dying and net migration levels;
• Projected life expectancy by age (in completed years) and sex.

Moreover, the demographic balances and indicators are available for the baseline projections and the five sensitive variants:

• Total numbers of the projected live births and deaths;
• Projected population structure indicators: proportions of broad age groups in total population, age dependency ratios and median ages of the population (for each sex component).

The dataset at regional level is composed by the baseline population projections and covers all 1169 regions classified as NUTS level 3 corresponding to the NUTS-2016 classification (the Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics) and the 47 Statistical Regions (SR) agreed between European Commission and EFTA countries. Statistical regions are defined according to principles similar to those used in the establishment of the NUTS classification.

For all 1216 regions NUTS-3 level, data are available by single year time interval as follows:

• Projected population on 1 January by age and sex;
• Assumptions on future age-specific fertility rates, probabilities of dying and net migration levels;
• Projected deaths by age and sex;
• Projected life expectancy by age (reached during the year) and sex, which is computed according to the method described in the https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/cache/metadata/Annexes/proj_19n_esms_an_24.pdf" target="_self">Technical note - Alternative life table (with annex)

In addition to the baseline projections, datasets on projected population at regional level are available for two sensitivity tests:

• no migration - it is assumed that migration is zero for both international and internal components in each year of the entire horizon of projections;
• no inter-regional migration - it is assumed that only internal migration is zero in each year of the entire horizon of projections.

Moreover, the demographic balances and indicators are available for the baseline projections and the two sensitive variants:

• Total numbers of the projected live births by sex and deaths;
• Projected population structure indicators: proportions of broad age groups in total population, age dependency ratios and median ages of the population (for each sex component).

The additional dataset called ‘Short-term update of the projected population (2022-2032)’ [proj_stp22] was published on 28 September 2022. While EUROPOP2019 remain the main set of reference for population projections, this new dataset includes updates of baseline projections for the total population, population in the age group 15 to 74 years (considered as the population in the working-age group), and its share in the total population. In addition, two sensitivity tests are carried out – high and very high number of refugees – by introducing in the baseline projections a shock due to the mass-influx of refugees fleeing the war in Ukraine, and who have received temporary protection in the EU countries.

The updated EUROPOP2019 projections were constructed from cumulative sums of weighted averages of annual population changes of two series: the original EUROPOP2019 projection and a new short-term population projection computed from the latest available data over the period of 10 years.

The two sensitivity tests were built on the following assumptions:

• High number of refugees sensitivity test – assumes that the influx of refugees occurs during 2022 only, and is followed by annual returns at a constant rate such that at the end of 2031 the remaining number of refugees is 10% of the total influx in 2022;
• Very high number of refugees sensitivity test – assumes that the influx of refugees occurs during 2022 and 2023, and is followed by annual returns at a constant rate such that at the end of 2031 the remaining number of refugees is 15% of the cumulated influx in 2022 and 2023.