Public sector net debt amounted to 93.5 percent of gross domestic product in the United Kingdom during the 2024/25 financial year. Following the COVID-19 pandemic, UK government debt has reached levels not seen since the early 1960s, due to a significant increase in borrowing in 2020/21. After peaking at 251.7 percent shortly after the end of the Second World War, government debt in the UK gradually fell, before a sharp increase in the late 2000s at the time of the global financial crisis. Debt not expected to start falling until 2029/30 In 2024/25, the UK's government expenditure was approximately 1.28 trillion pounds, around 44 percent of GDP. This spending was financed by 1.14 trillion pounds of revenue raised, and almost 150 billion pounds of borrowing. Although the UK government can continue to borrow money to finance its spending, the amount spent on debt interest has increased significantly in recent years. Current forecasts suggest that while the debt is eventually expected to start declining, this is based on falling government deficits in the next five years. Government facing hard choices Hitting fiscal targets, such as reducing the national debt, will require a careful balancing of the books from the current government, and the possibility for either spending cuts or tax rises. Although Labour ruled out raising the main government tax sources, Income Tax, National Insurance, and VAT, at the 2024 election, they did raise National Insurance for employers (rather than employees) and also cut Winter Fuel allowances for large numbers of pensioners. Less than a year after implementing cuts to Winter Fuel, the government performed a U-Turn on the issue, and also held back on more significant cuts to welfare.

With the global impact of the 2020 Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19), there has been a surge in public debt and uncertainty in the global economy. As the likelihood of a recession and a higher debt for Canada increases, the utility of a forecasting model is a realistic choice to both predict and determine optimal fiscal decisions for the government. This paper seeks to ratify existing historical trends in three developed economies (Canada, Japan, and the U.K.) as well as offer a time series forecast for the proceeding five years’ debt to GDP ratio. As per the International Monetary Fund (IMF), a limit of 60% in debt to GDP ratio was employed to measure how far off these three countries were from a considerably recoverable amount of debt. The time series forecast that the U.K. will drop to 65.436% by 2025, however, Japan and Canada will continue to accumulate debt to 254.3851% and 80.107% respectively.

The government of the United Kingdom borrowed approximately *** percent of its GDP in the 2024/25 financial year, compared with ****percent in 2023/24. In 2020/21, government borrowing reached *****percent of GDP, due to increased financial support to public services during the COVID-19 pandemic, combined with reduced revenue because of societal lockdowns.

In 2024/25, income tax accounted for 10.5 percent of gross domestic product in the United Kingdom, the largest tax as a share of GDP in this financial year. Throughout this time period, income tax has accounted for the highest share of GDP among UK taxes, followed by VAT and National Insurance Tax being the second-largest tax, depending on the relevant year. What does the government spend this on? For the 2025/26 fiscal year, the UK government expects to spend around 379 billion British pounds on social protection, which includes spending on pensions and welfare. The budget for health spending is 277 billion pounds, followed by 146 billion pounds on education. Since the 1980s, the share of GDP the UK spends on health has increased substantially, growing from four percent in 1984/85, to seven percent before the COVID-19 pandemic. By contrast, spending on defence fell from 4.6 percent of GDP to just 1.8 percent in the same time period. Debt approaching 100 percent of GPD The fourth-largest spending category in the latest UK government budget was that of debt interest, at a substantial 126 billion pounds. After taking a significant economic hit during the COVID-19 pandemic, the UK's government debt increased from around 80 percent of GDP, to almost 97 percent in one fiscal year. Although that debt is not expected to increase further in the coming years, the costs of financing that debt has put immense pressure on government finances, especially with rising borrowing costs.

By the end of the UK's job retention scheme, which ran from April 2020, to September 2021, approximately **** million jobs, from *** million different employers, were furloughed in the United Kingdom. The day with the most jobs furloughed at once was May 8, 2020, when **** million jobs were on the job retention scheme. The scheme, introduced in response to the economic damage caused by the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, covered ** percent of an employees' usual monthly wage, up to ***** British pounds a month. How much did the scheme cost? The UK government spent approximately ** billion British pounds on the job retention scheme. Due to spending commitments such as this, as well as depressed revenue sources, UK government finances took a severe hit in the 2020/21 financial year. Government borrowing was approximately ***** billion pounds in 2020/21, while government debt as a share of GDP shot up from around ** percent in 2018/19 to almost ** percent by 2020/21. Getting this debt down has proven difficult in subsequent financial years, with high inflation, war in Ukraine, and the Cost of Living Crisis putting even more pressure on public finances. Popular scheme not enough to save Sunak Former Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak, held the position of Chancellor of the Exchequer throughout the duration of the furlough scheme. While this scheme and Sunak himself were popular for much of that time, Sunak saw his popularity tumble. Shortly after succeeding Liz Truss as Prime Minister in October 2021, Sunak was seen by ** percent of people as being the best person for his job, but by May 2024, just before he announced the 2024 General Election, just ** percent of people thought he made the best Prime Minister. Sunak and the Conservatives went on to suffer a historic loss at this election, winning just *** seats, compared with the *** won in the 2019 General Election.

European Union Gross Debt: General Government: EU 27 excl UK data was reported at 14,543,528.700 EUR mn in Dec 2024. This records an increase from the previous number of 14,481,033.500 EUR mn for Sep 2024. European Union Gross Debt: General Government: EU 27 excl UK data is updated quarterly, averaging 9,624,899.250 EUR mn from Mar 2000 (Median) to Dec 2024, with 100 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 14,543,528.700 EUR mn in Dec 2024 and a record low of 5,247,691.900 EUR mn in Dec 2000. European Union Gross Debt: General Government: EU 27 excl UK data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Eurostat. The data is categorized under Global Database’s European Union – Table EU.F006: Eurostat: General Government Debt: ESA 2010 (Quarterly). [COVID-19-IMPACT]

The number of times a person in the United Kingdom used a credit card for payments declined by roughly ** percent in 2020 but nearly recovered by 2021. Unlike the same figure for debit cards, the recorded credit payments in 2020 were lower than in the years leading up to COVID-19. This coincides with a trend in the UK of paying off credit card debt during lockdown.

In 2025/26, the budgeted expenditure of the United Kingdom government is expected to be reach 1,335 billion British pounds, with the highest spending function being the 379 billion pounds expected to be spent on social protection, which includes pensions and other welfare benefits. Government spending on health was expected to be 277 billion pounds and was the second-highest spending function in this fiscal year, while education was the third-highest spending category at 146 billion pounds. UK government debt approaching 100 percent of GDP At the end of the 2024/25 financial year, the UK's government debt amounted to approximately 2.8 trillion British pounds, around 96 percent of GDP that year. This is due to the UK having to borrow money to cover its spending commitments, especially at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, when this deficit amounted to 314.6 billion pounds. Without significant cuts to spending or tax rises, the current government is aiming to reduce this debt by creating a stronger, more productive economy. Though this is how Britain's post WW2 debt was reduced, the country faces far more structural problems to growth than it did in the mid 20th century. Income Tax the UK's main revenue source Income Tax is expected to raise approximately 329 billion British pounds in the 2025/26 financial year, and be the largest revenue source for the government that year. Value Added Tax (VAT) receipts are expected to raise 214 billion pounds, with National Insurance contributions reaching 199 billion pounds. Although National Insurance rates for employees has actually fallen recently, the rate which employers pay was one of the main tax rises announced in the Autumn 2024 budget, rising from 13.8 percent to 15 percent. Though this avoided raising tax for workers directly, many UK businesses were critical of the move, with taxation seen as the main issue facing them at the start of 2025.

Abstract copyright UK Data Service and data collection copyright owner.

The Opinions and Lifestyle Survey (formerly known as the ONS Opinions Survey or Omnibus) is an omnibus survey that began in 1990, collecting data on a range of subjects commissioned by both the ONS internally and external clients (limited to other government departments, charities, non-profit organisations and academia).

Data are collected from one individual aged 16 or over, selected from each sampled private household. Personal data include data on the individual, their family, address, household, income and education, plus responses and opinions on a variety of subjects within commissioned modules.

The questionnaire collects timely data for research and policy analysis evaluation on the social impacts of recent topics of national importance, such as the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and the cost of living, on individuals and households in Great Britain.

From April 2018 to November 2019, the design of the OPN changed from face-to-face to a mixed-mode design (online first with telephone interviewing where necessary). Mixed-mode collection allows respondents to complete the survey more flexibly and provides a more cost-effective service for customers.

In March 2020, the OPN was adapted to become a weekly survey used to collect data on the social impacts of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic on the lives of people of Great Britain. These data are held in the Secure Access study, SN 8635, ONS Opinions and Lifestyle Survey, Covid-19 Module, 2020-2022: Secure Access.

From August 2021, as coronavirus (COVID-19) restrictions were lifting across Great Britain, the OPN moved to fortnightly data collection, sampling around 5,000 households in each survey wave to ensure the survey remains sustainable.

The OPN has since expanded to include questions on other topics of national importance, such as health and the cost of living. For more information about the survey and its methodology, see the ONS OPN Quality and Methodology Information webpage.

Secure Access Opinions and Lifestyle Survey data

Other Secure Access OPN data cover modules run at various points from 1997-2019, on Census religion (SN 8078), cervical cancer screening (SN 8080), contact after separation (SN 8089), contraception (SN 8095), disability (SNs 8680 and 8096), general lifestyle (SN 8092), illness and activity (SN 8094), and non-resident parental contact (SN 8093). See Opinions and Lifestyle Survey: Secure Access for details.

Main Topics:
Each month's questionnaire consists of two elements: core questions, covering demographic information, are asked each month together with non-core questions that vary from month to month.
The non-core questions for this month were:
Investment Income (Module 7a): this module was asked to discover how much interest, tax exempt or tax deducted, respondents earn on money kept in building society and bank accounts. Includes questions about TESSAs.
GP Accidents (Module 78n): this module asked about accidents the respondent had had where help was sought that could have involved a doctor e.g. doctor's surgery, hospital.
Expectation of House Price Changes (Module 137): this module asks respondents' views on changes to house prices in the next year and next five years. The module is only asked of HOH or spouse in England and Wales.
Private Debt Collection (Module 140): this module assesses respondents views on the use of private debt collectors by the Benefits Agency and how this would differ from the existing use of their own debt collectors.
Active for Life (Module 141): this module is only asked in England and evaluates the effectiveness of a publicity campaign to promote the idea that taking moderate physical exercise for 30 minutes a day, 5 days a week, is good for your health.
Employees Working Practices (Module 142): this module is only asked of current employees. The module asks about aspects of work including method of payment/working conditions, opportunities for promotion, flexible working, autonomy and influence.

In 2025/26, the government of the United Kingdom is expected to receive 1.2 trillion British pounds of public sector current receipts, with 329 billion British pounds coming from income tax, as well as 214 billion pounds from VAT. Other substantial sources of income include Corporation Tax, predicted to raise 105 billion pounds, and Council Tax, which will raise around 50 billion pounds. Government revenue falls short of spending Overall government revenue in 2023/24 amounted to approximately 1.13 trillion pounds, but with the government spending around 1.28 trillion pounds, the UK borrowed almost 152 billion pounds to cover its costs. As a consequence, the UK's national debt increased from 2.69 trillion pounds in 2022/23, to 2.81 trillion pounds in 2023/24, almost 100 per cent of GDP. Financing this debt is becoming increasingly burdensome for UK government finances, with the UK spending more on debt interest than on defence, transport, and public order and safety. Impact of COVID-19 on revenue sources Income received from some of the UK's typical revenue sources were severely depleted at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic. In 2018/19, for example, VAT raised around 132.5 billion pounds, with receipts falling to 129.9 billion pounds in 2019/20, and just 101.7 billion pounds in 2020/21. Corporation Tax, fell from 61.6 billion pounds in 2019/20, to 50.5 billion pounds in 2020/21, while revenue from Air Passenger Duties declined from 3.64 billion pounds in 2019/20, to just 590 million pounds in 2020/21, and just over one billion pounds in 2021/22.

In 2024/25 the value of tax receipts for the United Kingdom amounted to approximately 840 billion British pounds. Tax receipts form the bulk of UK government income, based on various direct and indirect taxes. Although tax income has gradually increased throughout most of this period, there is a noticeable dip in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Tax revenue sources Of the revenue generated by taxation in 2024/25, over 301 billion of this came from Income Tax receipts, which was the main source of direct tax income for the government. After income tax, the next most substantial direct tax were contributions from National Insurance, which amounted to just over 172.5 billion pounds of tax revenue. The UK's main goods and services tax; Value-added Tax (VAT) amounted to 170.6 billion pounds, while Corporation Tax receipts raised 91.6 billion pounds. Although other smaller direct and indirect taxes produce notable income, these four sources were by far the main sources of income in the previous financial year. UK government finances While taxes and other sources of income raised more than 1.13 trillion pounds in 2024/25, the UK government expenditure was around 1.28 trillion pounds. This gap between revenue and expenditure was financed via government borrowing, which amounted to almost 152 billion pounds. As the UK government has been spending more than it earns for several years, this has resulted in a significant government debt of 2.8 trillion pounds building up, the equivalent of just under 96 percent of GDP in 2024/25.

According to Cognitive Market Research, the global Revenue Based Financing market size was USD 2985.2 million in 2024. It will expand at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 61.80% from 2024 to 2031.

North America held the major market share for more than 40% of the global revenue with a market size of USD 1194.08 million in 2024 and will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 60.0% from 2024 to 2031.
Europe accounted for a market share of over 30% of the global revenue with a market size of USD 895.56 million.
Asia Pacific held a market share of around 23% of the global revenue with a market size of USD 686.60 million in 2024 and will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 63.8% from 2024 to 2031.
Latin America had a market share of more than 5% of the global revenue with a market size of USD 149.26 million in 2024 and will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 61.2% from 2024 to 2031.
Middle East and Africa had a market share of around 2% of the global revenue and was estimated at a market size of USD 59.70 million in 2024 and will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 61.5% from 2024 to 2031.
The healthcare industry is the fastest-growing category in the Revenue-Based Financing market. The rising demand for healthcare services, especially after the global pandemic, has led to accelerated growth within the sector

Market Dynamics of Revenue Based Financing Market

Key Drivers for Revenue Based Financing Market

Increased Demand for Flexible Capital to Boost Market Growth

In the Revenue-Based Financing Market, one of the most significant drivers is the growing demand for flexible capital solutions among startups and small businesses. Unlike traditional financing methods that often require fixed repayments regardless of a company’s cash flow, revenue-based financing allows businesses to repay their investors based on their monthly revenues. This flexibility is particularly appealing to entrepreneurs who face seasonal fluctuations or unexpected market challenges. By aligning repayment schedules with revenue performance, businesses can manage their cash flow more effectively, reducing the financial burden during lean periods and fostering sustainable growth. This adaptability not only enhances the appeal of revenue-based financing but also empowers businesses to make strategic investments that can drive long-term success without the fear of crippling debt. For instance, in the UK, the government launched the future fund scheme on May 20, 2020, which offers convertible loans to startups based on their revenue

Increasing Adoption of Digital Platforms and Fintech Solutions to Drive Market Growth

The surge in digital platforms and fintech solutions is another key driver in the Revenue-Based Financing market. With advancements in technology, fintech companies have made it easier for businesses to access funding through online platforms, streamlining the application and approval processes. Digital platforms also provide investors with detailed insights into business performance, facilitating better decision-making and risk management. The scalability and transparency offered by these platforms have accelerated the adoption of RBF, making it a popular choice among tech-driven startups and e-commerce businesses looking for quick and hassle-free funding solutions.

Restraint Factor for the Revenue Based Financing Market

High Cost of Capital, will Limit Market Growth

One significant restraint in the Revenue-Based Financing (RBF) market is the high cost of capital associated with this financing model. While RBF provides flexibility in repayment structures, the overall cost can be higher than traditional loans. Investors often charge higher fees or revenue percentages in exchange for the lower risk they assume. For startups and small businesses with limited profit margins, this elevated cost can strain their financial resources and deter them from choosing RBF over other funding options. Consequently, the perception of RBF as a more expensive alternative may hinder its widespread adoption among potential borrowers.

Impact of Covid-19 on the Revenue Based Financing Market

The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly impacted the Revenue-Based Financing Market, catalyzing both challenges and opportunities for businesses seeking flexible capital solutions. As many startups faced unprecedented financial pressures due to lockdowns and redu...

In 2024/25, the UK government spent approximately 13.3 percent of GDP on social protection, compared with 8.4 percent for health, and 4.1 percent for education. These three spending areas have accounted for the highest share of government spending since the late 1980s. Defence spending as a share of GDP has, by contrast, fallen throughout this period, from a high of 4.6 percent in 1984/85, to just 1.8 percent in the mid-2010s. Main sources of revenue During this same time period, income tax has been the most important source of revenue for the government, accounting for almost ten percent of GDP in the 2022/23 financial year. The UK's main tax levied on sales, Value Added Tax (VAT), was equivalent to 7.4 percent of GDP that year, with National Insurance Contributions at around seven percent of GDP. Taxes raised from businesses via Corporation Tax were the fourth-major source of tax revenue that year, at approximately 3.1 percent of GDP. Debt and borrowing Due to several years of the government spending more than it earns, the government has had to borrow large amounts to finance its commitments. This was especially the case at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic when, due to depressed revenues and increased expenditure, the government borrowed more than 314 billion pounds. This increased the national debt from 1.8 trillion pounds, to around 2.15 trillion pounds, or almost 97 percent of GDP.