COVID-19 cases by zip code from the Hamilton County Health Department website

Sourced from Public Health Ontario.

The SEIR (susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered) model has become a valuable tool for studying infectious disease dynamics and predicting the spread of diseases, particularly concerning the COVID pandemic. However, existing models often oversimplify population characteristics and fail to account for differences in disease sensitivity and social contact rates that can vary significantly among individuals. To address these limitations, we have developed a new multi-feature SEIR model that considers the heterogeneity of health conditions (disease sensitivity) and social activity levels (contact rates) among populations affected by infectious diseases. Our model has been validated using the data of the confirmed COVID cases in Allegheny County (Pennsylvania, USA) and Hamilton County (Ohio, USA). The results demonstrate that our model outperforms traditional SEIR models regarding predictive accuracy. In addition, we have used our multi-feature SEIR model to propose and evaluate different vaccine prioritization strategies tailored to the characteristics of heterogeneous populations. We have formulated optimization problems to determine effective vaccine distribution strategies. We have designed extensive numerical simulations to compare vaccine distribution strategies in different scenarios. Overall, our multi-feature SEIR model enhances the existing models and provides a more accurate picture of disease dynamics. It can help to inform public health interventions during pandemics/epidemics.

The SEIR (susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered) model has become a valuable tool for studying infectious disease dynamics and predicting the spread of diseases, particularly concerning the COVID pandemic. However, existing models often oversimplify population characteristics and fail to account for differences in disease sensitivity and social contact rates that can vary significantly among individuals. To address these limitations, we have developed a new multi-feature SEIR model that considers the heterogeneity of health conditions (disease sensitivity) and social activity levels (contact rates) among populations affected by infectious diseases. Our model has been validated using the data of the confirmed COVID cases in Allegheny County (Pennsylvania, USA) and Hamilton County (Ohio, USA). The results demonstrate that our model outperforms traditional SEIR models regarding predictive accuracy. In addition, we have used our multi-feature SEIR model to propose and evaluate different vaccine prioritization strategies tailored to the characteristics of heterogeneous populations. We have formulated optimization problems to determine effective vaccine distribution strategies. We have designed extensive numerical simulations to compare vaccine distribution strategies in different scenarios. Overall, our multi-feature SEIR model enhances the existing models and provides a more accurate picture of disease dynamics. It can help to inform public health interventions during pandemics/epidemics.

This is the Zenodo archive for the manuscript "Likely community transmission of COVID-19 infections between neighboring, persistent hotspots in Ontario, Canada" (Mucaki EJ, Shirley BC and Rogan PK. F1000Research 2021, 10:1312, DOI: 10.12688/f1000research.75891.1). This study aimed to produce community-level geo-spatial mapping of patterns and clusters of symptoms, and of confirmed COVID-19 cases, in near real-time in order to support decision-making. This was accomplished by area-to-area geostatistical analysis, space-time integration, and spatial interpolation of COVID-19 positive individuals. This archive will contain data and image files from this study, which were too numerous to be included in the manuscript for this study. It also provides all program files pertaining to the Geostatistical Epidemiology Toolbox (Geostatistical analysis software package to be used in ArcGIS), as well as all other scripts described in this manuscript and other software developed (cluster, outlier, streak identification and pairing).. We also provide a guide which provides a general description of the contents of the four sections in this archive (Documentation_for_Sections_of_Zenodo_Archive.docx). If you have any intent to utilize the data provided in Section 3, we greatly advise you to review this document as it describes the output of all geostatistical analyses performed in this study in detail. Data Files: Section 1. "Section_1.Tables_S1_S7.Figures_S1_S11.zip" This section contains all additional tables and figures described in the manuscript "Likely community transmission of COVID-19 infections between neighboring, persistent hotspots in Ontario, Canada". Additional tables S1 to S7 are presented in an Excel document. These 7 tables provide summary statistics of various geostatistical tests described in the study (“Section 1 – Tables S1-S4”) and lists all identified single and paired high-case cluster streaks (“Section 1 – Tables S5-S7”). This section also contains 11 additional figures referred to in the manuscript (“Section 1 – Figures S1-S11”) both individually and within a Word document which describes them. Section 2. "Section_2.Localized_Hotspot_Lists.zip" All localized hotspots (identified through kriging analysis) were catalogued for each municipality evaluated (Hamilton, Kitchener/Waterloo, London, Ottawa, Toronto, Windsor/Essex). These files indicate the FSA in which the hotspot was identified, the date in which it was identified (utilizing 3-day case data at the postal code level), the amount of cases which occurred within the FSA within these 3 dates, the range of cases interpolated by kriging analysis (between 5-10, 10-15, 15-20, 20-25, 25-30, 30-35, 35-40, 40-50, >50), and whether or not the FSA was deemed a hotspot by Gi* relative to the rest of Ontario on any of the three dates evaluated. Please see Section 4 for map images of these localized hotspots. Section 3. "Section_3.All-Data_Files.Kriging_GiStar_Local_and_GlobalMorans.2020_2021" Section 3 – All output files from the geostatistical tests performed in this study are provided in this section. This includes the output from Ontario-wide FSA-level Gi* and Cluster and Outlier analyses, and PC-level Cluster and Outlier, Spatial Autocorrelation, and kriging analysis of 6 municipal regions. It also includes kriging analysis of 7 other municipal regions adjacent to Toronto (Ajax, Brampton, Markham, Mississauga, Pickering, Richmond Hill and Vaughan). This section also provides data files from our analyses of stratified case data (by age, gender, and at-risk condition). All coordinates presented in these data files are given in “PCS_Lambert_Conformal_Conic” format. Case values between 1-5 were masked (appear as “NA”). Section 4. "Section_4.All_Map_Images_of_Geostat_Analyses.zip" Sets of image files which map the results of our geostatistical analyses onto a map of Ontario or within the municipalities evaluated (Hamilton, Kitchener/Waterloo, London, Ottawa, Toronto, Windsor/Essex) are provided. This includes: Kriging analysis (PC-level), Local Moran's I cluster and outlier analysis (FSA and PC-level), normal and space-time Gi* analysis, and all images for all analyses performed on stratified data (by age, gender and at-risk condition). Kriging contour maps are also included for 7 other municipal regions adjacent to Toronto (Ajax, Brampton, Markham, Mississauga, Pickering, Richmond Hill and Vaughan). Software: This Zenodo archive also provides all program files pertaining to the Geostatistical Epidemiology Toolbox (Geostatistical analysis software package to be used in ArcGIS), as well as all other scripts described in this manuscript. This geostatistical toolbox was developed by CytoGnomix Inc., London ON, Canada and is distributed freely under the terms of the GNU General Public License v3.0. It can be easily modified to accommodate other Canadian provinces and, with some additional effort, other countries. This distribution of the Geostatistical Epi...

The SEIR (susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered) model has become a valuable tool for studying infectious disease dynamics and predicting the spread of diseases, particularly concerning the COVID pandemic. However, existing models often oversimplify population characteristics and fail to account for differences in disease sensitivity and social contact rates that can vary significantly among individuals. To address these limitations, we have developed a new multi-feature SEIR model that considers the heterogeneity of health conditions (disease sensitivity) and social activity levels (contact rates) among populations affected by infectious diseases. Our model has been validated using the data of the confirmed COVID cases in Allegheny County (Pennsylvania, USA) and Hamilton County (Ohio, USA). The results demonstrate that our model outperforms traditional SEIR models regarding predictive accuracy. In addition, we have used our multi-feature SEIR model to propose and evaluate different vaccine prioritization strategies tailored to the characteristics of heterogeneous populations. We have formulated optimization problems to determine effective vaccine distribution strategies. We have designed extensive numerical simulations to compare vaccine distribution strategies in different scenarios. Overall, our multi-feature SEIR model enhances the existing models and provides a more accurate picture of disease dynamics. It can help to inform public health interventions during pandemics/epidemics.

Background Rural U.S. communities are at risk from COVID-19 due to advanced age and limited access to acute care. Recognizing this, the Vashon Medical Reserve Corps (VMRC) in King County, Washington, implemented an all-volunteer, community-based COVID-19 response program.  This program integrated public engagement, SARS-CoV-2 testing, contact tracing, vaccination, and material community support, and was associated with the lowest cumulative COVID-19 case rate in King County. This study aimed to investigate the contributions of demographics, geography and public health interventions to Vashon’s low COVID-19 rates. Methods This observational cross-sectional study compares cumulative COVID-19 rates and success of public health interventions from February 2020 through November 2021 for Vashon Island with King County (including metropolitan Seattle) and Whidbey Island, located ~50 km north of Vashon. To evaluate the role of demography, we developed multiple linear regression models of COVID-...

Statistics in Tables 4 to 7 are computed based on this file. Statistics in Tables 8 to 13 are computed based on the first spreadsheet in this file. (XLSX)

Winning rate of highest infection proportion of each strategy under different situations.

Winning rate in death proportions under High-High situations.

Winning rate in death proportion of each strategy under High-High situations.

Average loss ratio in highest infection of each strategy under different situations.

Average loss ratio in cumulative death of each strategy under High-High situations.

Average loss ratio in cumulative death of each strategy under different situations.

Comparison of estimation error measured by ϵ by considering weekly infected populations between classic and multi-feature SEIR.

In the current scenario, in which an elevated number of COVID-19 survivors present with severe physical deconditioning, exercise intolerance, persistent symptoms, and other post-acute consequences, effective rehabilitation strategies are of utmost relevance. In this study, we report for the first time the effect of home-based exercise training (HBET) in a survivor patient from critical COVID-19 illness. A 67-year-old woman who had critical COVID-19 disease [71 days of hospitalization, of which 49 days were in the intensive care unit (ICU) with invasive mechanical ventilation due to respiratory failure] underwent a 10-week HBET aiming to recovering overall physical condition. Before and after the intervention, we assessed cardiopulmonary parameters, skeletal muscle strength and functionality, fatigue severity, and self-reported persistent symptoms. At baseline (3 months after discharge), she presented with severe impairment in cardiorespiratory functional capacity (

Case investigation and contact tracing on Vashon, South Whidbey and in King County.

ABSTRACT Known laparoscopic and robotic assisted approaches and techniques for the surgical management of urological malignant and benign diseases are commonly used around the World. During the global pandemic COVID-19, urology surgeons had to reorganize their daily surgical practice. A concern with the use of minimally invasive techniques arose due to a proposed risk of viral transmission of the coronavirus disease with the creation of pneumoperitoneum. Due to this, we reviewed the literature to evaluate the use of laparoscopy and robotics during the pandemic COVID-19. A literature review of viral transmission in surgery and of the available literature regarding the transmission of the COVID-19 virus was performed up to April 30, 2020. We additionally reviewed surgical society guidelines and recommendations regarding surgery during this pandemic. Few studies have been performed on viral transmission during surgery. No study has been made regarding this area during minimally invasive urology cases. To date there is no study that demonstrates or can suggest the ability for a virus to be transmitted during surgical treatment whether open, laparoscopic or robotic. There is no society consensus on restricting laparoscopic or robotic surgery. However, there is expert consensus on modification of standard practices to minimize any risk of transmission. During the pandemic COVID-19 we recommend the use of specific personal protective equipment for the surgeon, anesthesiologist and nursing staff in the operating room. Modifications of standard practices during minimally invasive surgery such as using lowest intra-abdominal pressures possible, controlled smoke evacuation systems, and minimizing energy device usage are recommended.

IVW meta-analysis of MR estimates of IL6R blockade for UK Biobank and COVID-19 HGI outcomes.