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The New York Times is releasing a series of data files with cumulative counts of coronavirus cases in the United States, at the state and county level, over time. We are compiling this time series data from state and local governments and health departments in an attempt to provide a complete record of the ongoing outbreak.
Since the first reported coronavirus case in Washington State on Jan. 21, 2020, The Times has tracked cases of coronavirus in real time as they were identified after testing. Because of the widespread shortage of testing, however, the data is necessarily limited in the picture it presents of the outbreak.
We have used this data to power our maps and reporting tracking the outbreak, and it is now being made available to the public in response to requests from researchers, scientists and government officials who would like access to the data to better understand the outbreak.
The data begins with the first reported coronavirus case in Washington State on Jan. 21, 2020. We will publish regular updates to the data in this repository.
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TwitterThe COVID Tracking Project collects information from 50 US states, the District of Columbia, and 5 other US territories to provide the most comprehensive testing data we can collect for the novel coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2. We attempt to include positive and negative results, pending tests, and total people tested for each state or district currently reporting that data.
Testing is a crucial part of any public health response, and sharing test data is essential to understanding this outbreak. The CDC is currently not publishing complete testing data, so we’re doing our best to collect it from each state and provide it to the public. The information is patchy and inconsistent, so we’re being transparent about what we find and how we handle it—the spreadsheet includes our live comments about changing data and how we’re working with incomplete information.
From here, you can also learn about our methodology, see who makes this, and find out what information states provide and how we handle it.
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TwitterNote: Reporting of new COVID-19 Case Surveillance data will be discontinued July 1, 2024, to align with the process of removing SARS-CoV-2 infections (COVID-19 cases) from the list of nationally notifiable diseases. Although these data will continue to be publicly available, the dataset will no longer be updated.
Authorizations to collect certain public health data expired at the end of the U.S. public health emergency declaration on May 11, 2023. The following jurisdictions discontinued COVID-19 case notifications to CDC: Iowa (11/8/21), Kansas (5/12/23), Kentucky (1/1/24), Louisiana (10/31/23), New Hampshire (5/23/23), and Oklahoma (5/2/23). Please note that these jurisdictions will not routinely send new case data after the dates indicated. As of 7/13/23, case notifications from Oregon will only include pediatric cases resulting in death.
This case surveillance public use dataset has 12 elements for all COVID-19 cases shared with CDC and includes demographics, any exposure history, disease severity indicators and outcomes, presence of any underlying medical conditions and risk behaviors, and no geographic data.
The COVID-19 case surveillance database includes individual-level data reported to U.S. states and aut
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TwitterThis dataset is not being updated as hospitals are no longer mandated to report COVID Hospitalizations to CDPH. Data is from the California COVID-19 State Dashboard at https://covid19.ca.gov/state-dashboard/ Note: Hospitalization counts include all patients diagnosed with COVID-19 during their stay. This does not necessarily mean they were hospitalized because of COVID-19 complications or that they experienced COVID-19 symptoms. Note: Cumulative totals are not available due to the fact that hospitals report the total number of patients each day (as opposed to new patients).
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Johns Hopkins' county-level COVID-19 case and death data, paired with population and rates per 100,000
SUMMARY Updates April 9, 2020 The population estimate data for New York County, NY has been updated to include all five New York City counties (Kings County, Queens County, Bronx County, Richmond County and New York County). This has been done to match the Johns Hopkins COVID-19 data, which aggregates counts for the five New York City counties to New York County. April 20, 2020 Johns Hopkins death totals in the US now include confirmed and probable deaths in accordance with CDC guidelines as of April 14. One significant result of this change was an increase of more than 3,700 deaths in the New York City count. This change will likely result in increases for death counts elsewhere as well. The AP does not alter the Johns Hopkins source data, so probable deaths are included in this dataset as well. April 29, 2020 The AP is now providing timeseries data for counts of COVID-19 cases and deaths. The raw counts are provided here unaltered, along with a population column with Census ACS-5 estimates and calculated daily case and death rates per 100,000 people. Please read the updated caveats section for more information.
Overview The AP is using data collected by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering as our source for outbreak caseloads and death counts for the United States and globally.
The Hopkins data is available at the county level in the United States. The AP has paired this data with population figures and county rural/urban designations, and has calculated caseload and death rates per 100,000 people. Be aware that caseloads may reflect the availability of tests -- and the ability to turn around test results quickly -- rather than actual disease spread or true infection rates.
This data is from the Hopkins dashboard that is updated regularly throughout the day. Like all organizations dealing with data, Hopkins is constantly refining and cleaning up their feed, so there may be brief moments where data does not appear correctly. At this link, you’ll find the Hopkins daily data reports, and a clean version of their feed.
The AP is updating this dataset hourly at 45 minutes past the hour.
To learn more about AP's data journalism capabilities for publishers, corporations and financial institutions, go here or email kromano@ap.org.
Queries Use AP's queries to filter the data or to join to other datasets we've made available to help cover the coronavirus pandemic
Filter cases by state here
Rank states by their status as current hotspots. Calculates the 7-day rolling average of new cases per capita in each state: https://data.world/associatedpress/johns-hopkins-coronavirus-case-tracker/workspace/query?queryid=481e82a4-1b2f-41c2-9ea1-d91aa4b3b1ac
Find recent hotspots within your state by running a query to calculate the 7-day rolling average of new cases by capita in each county: https://data.world/associatedpress/johns-hopkins-coronavirus-case-tracker/workspace/query?queryid=b566f1db-3231-40fe-8099-311909b7b687&showTemplatePreview=true
Join county-level case data to an earlier dataset released by AP on local hospital capacity here. To find out more about the hospital capacity dataset, see the full details.
Pull the 100 counties with the highest per-capita confirmed cases here
Rank all the counties by the highest per-capita rate of new cases in the past 7 days here. Be aware that because this ranks per-capita caseloads, very small counties may rise to the very top, so take into account raw caseload figures as well.
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Caveats This data represents the number of cases and deaths reported by each state and has been collected by Johns Hopkins from a number of sources cited on their website. In some cases, deaths or cases of people who've crossed state lines -- either to receive treatment or because they became sick and couldn't return home while traveling -- are reported in a state they aren't currently in, because of state reporting rules. In some states, there are a number of cases not assigned to a specific county -- for those cases, the county name is "unassigned to a single county" This data should be credited to Johns Hopkins University's COVID-19 tracking project. The AP is simply making it available here for ease of use for reporters and members. Caseloads may reflect the availability of tests -- and the ability to turn around test results quickly -- rather than actual disease spread or true infection rates. Population estimates at the county level are drawn from 2014-18 5-year estimates from the American Community Survey. The Urban/Rural classification scheme is from the Center for Disease Control and Preventions's National Center for Health Statistics. It puts each county into one of six categories --...
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TwitterThe COVID-19 dashboard includes data on city/town COVID-19 activity, confirmed and probable cases of COVID-19, confirmed and probable deaths related to COVID-19, and the demographic characteristics of cases and deaths.
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This dataset contains numbers of COVID-19 outbreaks and associated cases, categorized by setting, reported to CDPH since January 1, 2021.
AB 685 (Chapter 84, Statutes of 2020) and the Cal/OSHA COVID-19 Emergency Temporary Standards (Title 8, Subchapter 7, Sections 3205-3205.4) required non-healthcare employers in California to report workplace COVID-19 outbreaks to their local health department (LHD) between January 1, 2021 – December 31, 2022. Beginning January 1, 2023, non-healthcare employer reporting of COVID-19 outbreaks to local health departments is voluntary, unless a local order is in place. More recent data collected without mandated reporting may therefore be less representative of all outbreaks that have occurred, compared to earlier data collected during mandated reporting. Licensed health facilities continue to be mandated to report outbreaks to LHDs.
LHDs report confirmed outbreaks to the California Department of Public Health (CDPH) via the California Reportable Disease Information Exchange (CalREDIE), the California Connected (CalCONNECT) system, or other established processes. Data are compiled and categorized by setting by CDPH. Settings are categorized by U.S. Census industry codes. Total outbreaks and cases are included for individual industries as well as for broader industrial sectors.
The first dataset includes numbers of outbreaks in each setting by month of onset, for outbreaks reported to CDPH since January 1, 2021. This dataset includes some outbreaks with onset prior to January 1 that were reported to CDPH after January 1; these outbreaks are denoted with month of onset “Before Jan 2021.” The second dataset includes cumulative numbers of COVID-19 outbreaks with onset after January 1, 2021, categorized by setting. Due to reporting delays, the reported numbers may not reflect all outbreaks that have occurred as of the reporting date; additional outbreaks may have occurred that have not yet been reported to CDPH.
While many of these settings are workplaces, cases may have occurred among workers, other community members who visited the setting, or both. Accordingly, these data do not distinguish between outbreaks involving only workers, outbreaks involving only residents or patrons, or outbreaks involving both.
Several additional data limitations should be kept in mind:
Outbreaks are classified as “Insufficient information” for outbreaks where not enough information was available for CDPH to assign an industry code.
Some sectors, particularly congregate residential settings, may have increased testing and therefore increased likelihood of outbreak recognition and reporting. As a result, in congregate residential settings, the number of outbreak-associated cases may be more accurate.
However, in most settings, outbreak and case counts are likely underestimates. For most cases, it is not possible to identify the source of exposure, as many cases have multiple possible exposures.
Because some settings have been at times been closed or open with capacity restrictions, numbers of outbreak reports in those settings do not reflect COVID-19 transmission risk.
The number of outbreaks in different settings will depend on the number of different workplaces in each setting. More outbreaks would be expected in settings with many workplaces compared to settings with few workplaces.
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After October 13, 2022, this dataset will no longer be updated as the related CDC COVID Data Tracker site was retired on October 13, 2022.
This dataset contains historical trends in vaccinations and cases by age group, at the US national level. Data is stratified by at least one dose and fully vaccinated. Data also represents all vaccine partners including jurisdictional partner clinics, retail pharmacies, long-term care facilities, dialysis centers, Federal Emergency Management Agency and Health Resources and Services Administration partner sites, and federal entity facilities.
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TwitterCOVID-19 data for LA County neighborhoods and communities. Updated daily. Source: LA County Public Health (http://dashboard.publichealth.lacounty.gov/covid19_surveillance_dashboard/). Code available: https://github.com/CityOfLosAngeles/covid19-indicators.
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TwitterData collecting by local state and local health agencies. Compiled and visualized by The New York Times.
This is the US Coronavirus data repository from The New York Times here U.S. coronavirus interactive site. This data includes COVID-19 cases and deaths reported by state and county. The New York Times compiled this data based on reports from state and local health agencies. More information on the data repository is available. For additional reporting and data visualizations, see The New York Times’ Interactive coronavirus data tool.
Data source: https://github.com/nytimes/covid-19-data
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It is increasingly recognized that policies have played a role in both alleviating and exacerbating the health and economic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic. Yet there has been limited work to systematically evaluate the substantial variation in local COVID-19-related policies in the U.S. The objective of the U.S. COVID-19 County Policy (UCCP) Database is to systematically gather, characterize, and assess variation in U.S. county-level COVID-19-related policies. The current data upload represents the first wave of data collection, which includes data on over 20 policies gathered across 171 counties in 7 states during January-March 2021. These include county-level COVID-19-related policies within 3 policy domains that are likely to affect a variety of health outcomes: (1) containment/closure, (2) economic support, and (3) public health. In ongoing work, we are conducting retrospective longitudinal weekly data collection for the period 2020-2021 from a larger swath of 300+ U.S. counties in all 50 states and Washington D.C. The current database will be updated with new data as it becomes available, in late 2023 or early 2024.Researchers who use this database for their studies should acknowledge the funders below in all publications.
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TwitterNote: This dataset is no longer being updated due to the end of the COVID-19 Public Health Emergency.
The California Department of Public Health (CDPH) is identifying vaccination status of COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths by analyzing the state immunization registry and registry of confirmed COVID-19 cases. Post-vaccination cases are individuals who have a positive SARS-Cov-2 molecular test (e.g. PCR) at least 14 days after they have completed their primary vaccination series.
Tracking cases of COVID-19 that occur after vaccination is important for monitoring the impact of immunization campaigns. While COVID-19 vaccines are safe and effective, some cases are still expected in persons who have been vaccinated, as no vaccine is 100% effective. For more information, please see https://www.cdph.ca.gov/Programs/CID/DCDC/Pages/COVID-19/Post-Vaccine-COVID19-Cases.aspx
Post-vaccination infection data is updated monthly and includes data on cases, hospitalizations, and deaths among the unvaccinated and the vaccinated. Partially vaccinated individuals are excluded. To account for reporting and processing delays, there is at least a one-month lag in provided data (for example data published on 9/9/22 will include data through 7/31/22).
Notes:
On September 9, 2022, the post-vaccination data has been changed to compare unvaccinated with those with at least a primary series completed for persons age 5+. These data will be updated monthly (first Thursday of the month) and include at least a one month lag.
On February 2, 2022, the post-vaccination data has been changed to distinguish between vaccination with a primary series only versus vaccinated and boosted. The previous dataset has been uploaded as an archived table. Additionally, the lag on this data has been extended to 14 days.
On November 29, 2021, the denominator for calculating vaccine coverage has been changed from age 16+ to age 12+ to reflect new vaccine eligibility criteria. The previous dataset based on age 16+ denominators has been uploaded as an archived table.
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The dataset contains a weekly situation update on COVID-19, the epidemiological curve and the global geographical distribution (EU/EEA and the UK, worldwide).
Since the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic, ECDC’s Epidemic Intelligence team has collected the number of COVID-19 cases and deaths, based on reports from health authorities worldwide. This comprehensive and systematic process was carried out on a daily basis until 14/12/2020. See the discontinued daily dataset: COVID-19 Coronavirus data - daily. ECDC’s decision to discontinue daily data collection is based on the fact that the daily number of cases reported or published by countries is frequently subject to retrospective corrections, delays in reporting and/or clustered reporting of data for several days. Therefore, the daily number of cases may not reflect the true number of cases at EU/EEA level at a given day of reporting. Consequently, day to day variations in the number of cases does not constitute a valid basis for policy decisions.
ECDC continues to monitor the situation. Every week between Monday and Wednesday, a team of epidemiologists screen up to 500 relevant sources to collect the latest figures for publication on Thursday. The data screening is followed by ECDC’s standard epidemic intelligence process for which every single data entry is validated and documented in an ECDC database. An extract of this database, complete with up-to-date figures and data visualisations, is then shared on the ECDC website, ensuring a maximum level of transparency.
ECDC receives regular updates from EU/EEA countries through the Early Warning and Response System (EWRS), The European Surveillance System (TESSy), the World Health Organization (WHO) and email exchanges with other international stakeholders. This information is complemented by screening up to 500 sources every day to collect COVID-19 figures from 196 countries. This includes websites of ministries of health (43% of the total number of sources), websites of public health institutes (9%), websites from other national authorities (ministries of social services and welfare, governments, prime minister cabinets, cabinets of ministries, websites on health statistics and official response teams) (6%), WHO websites and WHO situation reports (2%), and official dashboards and interactive maps from national and international institutions (10%). In addition, ECDC screens social media accounts maintained by national authorities on for example Twitter, Facebook, YouTube or Telegram accounts run by ministries of health (28%) and other official sources (e.g. official media outlets) (2%). Several media and social media sources are screened to gather additional information which can be validated with the official sources previously mentioned. Only cases and deaths reported by the national and regional competent authorities from the countries and territories listed are aggregated in our database.
Disclaimer: National updates are published at different times and in different time zones. This, and the time ECDC needs to process these data, might lead to discrepancies between the national numbers and the numbers published by ECDC. Users are advised to use all data with caution and awareness of their limitations. Data are subject to retrospective corrections; corrected datasets are released as soon as processing of updated national data has been completed.
If you reuse or enrich this dataset, please share it with us.
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TwitterThis case surveillance public use dataset has 19 elements for all COVID-19 cases shared with CDC and includes demographics, geography (county and state of residence), any exposure history, disease severity indicators and outcomes, and presence of any underlying medical conditions and risk behaviors. Currently, CDC provides the public with three versions of COVID-19 case surveillance line-listed data: this 19 data element dataset with geography, a 12 data element public use dataset, and a 32 data element restricted access dataset. The following apply to the public use datasets and the restricted access dataset: - Data elements can be found on the COVID-19 case report form located at www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/downloads/pui-form.pdf. - Data are considered provisional by CDC and are subject to change until the data are reconciled and verified with the state and territorial data providers. - Some data are suppressed to protect individual privacy. - Datasets will include all cases with the earliest date available in each record (date received by CDC or date related to illness/specimen collection) at least 14 days prior to the creation of the previously updated datasets. This 14-day lag allows case reporting to be stabilized and ensure that time-dependent outcome data are accurately captured. - Datasets are updated monthly. - Datasets are created using CDC’s Policy on Public Health Research and Nonresearch Data Management and Access and include protections designed to protect individual privacy. - For more information about data collection and reporting, please see wwwn.cdc.gov/nndss/data-collection.html. - For more information about the COVID-19 case surveillance data, please see www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/faq-surveillance.html. Overview The COVID-19 case surveillance database includes patient-level data reported by U.S. states and autonomous reporting entities, including New York City and the District of Columbia (D.C.), as well as U.S. territories and affiliates. On April 5, 2020, COVID-19 was added to the Nationally Notifiable Condition List and classified as "immediately notifiable, urgent (within 24 hours)" by a Council of State and Territorial Epidemiologists (CSTE) Interim Position Statement (Interim-20-ID-01). CSTE updated the position statement on August 5, 2020 to clarify the interpretation of antigen detection tests and serologic test results within the case classification (Interim-20-ID-02). The statement also recommended that all states and territories enact laws to make COVID-19 reportable in their jurisdiction, and that jurisdictions conducting surveillance should submit case notifications to CDC. COVID-19 case surveillance data collected by jurisdictions are shared voluntarily with CDC. For more information, visit: wwwn.cdc.gov/nndss/conditions/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/case-definition/2020/08/05/. COVID-19 Case Reports COVID-19 case reports are routinely submitted to CDC by pu
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TwitterThis repository within the ACTIV TRACE initiative houses a comprehensive collection of datasets related to SARS-CoV-2. The processing of SARS-CoV-2 Sequence Read Archive (SRA) files has been optimized to identify genetic variations in viral samples. This information is then presented in the Variant Call Format (VCF). Each VCF file corresponds to the SRA parent-run's accession ID. Additionally, the data is available in the parquet format, making it easier to search and filter using the Amazon Athena Service. The SARS-CoV-2 Variant Calling Pipeline is designed to handle new data every six hours, with updates to the AWS ODP bucket occurring daily.
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Data and code repository for the Open COVID-19 Data Working Group: a global and multi-organizational initative that aims to enable rapid sharing of trusted and open public health data to advance the response to infectious diseases.
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TwitterDSH COVID-19 Patient Data reports on patient positives and testing counts at the facility level for DSH. The table reports on the following data fields:
Total patients that tested positive for COVID-19 since 5/16/2020
Patients newly positive for COVID-19 in the last 14 days
Patient deaths while patient was positive for COVID-19 since 5/30/2020
Total number of tests administered since 3/23/2020
COVID-19 test results for patients include DSH patients who are tested while receiving treatment at an outside medical facility. Data has been de-identified in accordance with CalHHS Data De-identification Guidelines. Counts between 1-10 are masked with "<11". Includes Patients Under Investigation (PUIs) testing and proactive testing of asymptomatic patients for surveillance of geriatric, medically fragile, and skilled nursing facility units and for patients upon admission, re-admission, or discharge. Includes all individuals who were positive for COVID-19 at time of death, regardless of underlying health conditions or whether the cause of death has been confirmed to be COVID-19 related illness. Metro-Norwalk is additional COVID-19 surge space and technically a branch location that is part of DSH Metropolitan Hospital.
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TwitterCovid-19 Daily metrics at the county level As of 6/1/2023, this data set is no longer being updated. The COVID-19 Data Report is posted on the Open Data Portal every day at 3pm. The report uses data from multiple sources, including external partners; if data from external partners are not received by 3pm, they are not available for inclusion in the report and will not be displayed. Data that are received after 3pm will still be incorporated and published in the next report update. The cumulative number of COVID-19 cases (cumulative_cases) includes all cases of COVID-19 that have ever been reported to DPH. The cumulative number of COVID_19 cases in the last 7 days (cases_7days) only includes cases where the specimen collection date is within the past 7 days. While most cases are reported to DPH within 48 hours of specimen collection, there are a small number of cases that routinely are delayed, and will have specimen collection dates that fall outside of the rolling 7 day reporting window. Additionally, reporting entities may submit correction files to contribute historic data during initial onboarding or to address data quality issues; while this is rare, these correction files may cause a large amount of data from outside of the current reporting window to be uploaded in a single day; this would result in the change in cumulative_cases being much larger than the value of cases_7days. On June 4, 2020, the US Department of Health and Human Services issued guidance requiring the reporting of positive and negative test results for SARS-CoV-2; this guidance expired with the end of the federal PHE on 5/11/2023, and negative SARS-CoV-2 results were removed from the List of Reportable Laboratory Findings. DPH will no longer be reporting metrics that were dependent on the collection of negative test results, specifically total tests performed or percent positivity. Positive antigen and PCR/NAAT results will continue to be reportable.
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Note: After May 3, 2024, this dataset will no longer be updated because hospitals are no longer required to report data on COVID-19 hospital admissions, hospital capacity, or occupancy data to HHS through CDC’s National Healthcare Safety Network (NHSN). The related CDC COVID Data Tracker site was revised or retired on May 10, 2023.
This dataset represents weekly COVID-19 hospitalization data and metrics aggregated to national, state/territory, and regional levels. COVID-19 hospitalization data are reported to CDC’s National Healthcare Safety Network, which monitors national and local trends in healthcare system stress, capacity, and community disease levels for approximately 6,000 hospitals in the United States. Data reported by hospitals to NHSN and included in this dataset represent aggregated counts and include metrics capturing information specific to COVID-19 hospital admissions, and inpatient and ICU bed capacity occupancy.
Reporting information:
Metric details:
Note: October 27, 2023: Due to a data processing error, reported values for avg_percent_inpatient_beds_occupied_covid_confirmed will appear lower than previously reported values by an average difference of less than 1%. Therefore, previously reported values for avg_percent_inpatient_beds_occupied_covid_confirmed may have been overestimated and should be interpreted with caution.
October 27, 2023: Due to a data processing error, reported values for abs_chg_avg_percent_inpatient_beds_occupied_covid_confirmed will differ from previously reported values by an average absolute difference of less than 1%. Therefore, previously reported values for abs_chg_avg_percent_inpatient_beds_occupied_covid_confirmed should be interpreted with caution.
December 29, 2023: Hospitalization data reported to CDC’s National Healthcare Safety Network (NHSN) through December 23, 2023, should be interpreted with caution due to potential reporting delays that are impacted by Christmas and New Years holidays. As a result, metrics including new hospital admissions for COVID-19 and influenza and hospital occupancy may be underestimated for the week ending December 23, 2023.
January 5, 2024: Hospitalization data reported to CDC’s National Healthcare Safety Network (NHSN) through December 30, 2023 should be interpreted with caution due to potential reporting delays that are impacted by Christmas and New Years holidays. As a result, metrics including new hospital admissions for COVID-19 and influenza and hospital occupancy may be underestimated for the week ending December 30, 2023.
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TwitterOn March 10, 2023, the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center ceased its collecting and reporting of global COVID-19 data. For updated cases, deaths, and vaccine data please visit: World Health Organization (WHO)For more information, visit the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center.COVID-19 Trends MethodologyOur goal is to analyze and present daily updates in the form of recent trends within countries, states, or counties during the COVID-19 global pandemic. The data we are analyzing is taken directly from the Johns Hopkins University Coronavirus COVID-19 Global Cases Dashboard, though we expect to be one day behind the dashboard’s live feeds to allow for quality assurance of the data.DOI: https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.125529863/7/2022 - Adjusted the rate of active cases calculation in the U.S. to reflect the rates of serious and severe cases due nearly completely dominant Omicron variant.6/24/2020 - Expanded Case Rates discussion to include fix on 6/23 for calculating active cases.6/22/2020 - Added Executive Summary and Subsequent Outbreaks sectionsRevisions on 6/10/2020 based on updated CDC reporting. This affects the estimate of active cases by revising the average duration of cases with hospital stays downward from 30 days to 25 days. The result shifted 76 U.S. counties out of Epidemic to Spreading trend and no change for national level trends.Methodology update on 6/2/2020: This sets the length of the tail of new cases to 6 to a maximum of 14 days, rather than 21 days as determined by the last 1/3 of cases. This was done to align trends and criteria for them with U.S. CDC guidance. The impact is areas transition into Controlled trend sooner for not bearing the burden of new case 15-21 days earlier.Correction on 6/1/2020Discussion of our assertion of an abundance of caution in assigning trends in rural counties added 5/7/2020. Revisions added on 4/30/2020 are highlighted.Revisions added on 4/23/2020 are highlighted.Executive SummaryCOVID-19 Trends is a methodology for characterizing the current trend for places during the COVID-19 global pandemic. Each day we assign one of five trends: Emergent, Spreading, Epidemic, Controlled, or End Stage to geographic areas to geographic areas based on the number of new cases, the number of active cases, the total population, and an algorithm (described below) that contextualize the most recent fourteen days with the overall COVID-19 case history. Currently we analyze the countries of the world and the U.S. Counties. The purpose is to give policymakers, citizens, and analysts a fact-based data driven sense for the direction each place is currently going. When a place has the initial cases, they are assigned Emergent, and if that place controls the rate of new cases, they can move directly to Controlled, and even to End Stage in a short time. However, if the reporting or measures to curtail spread are not adequate and significant numbers of new cases continue, they are assigned to Spreading, and in cases where the spread is clearly uncontrolled, Epidemic trend.We analyze the data reported by Johns Hopkins University to produce the trends, and we report the rates of cases, spikes of new cases, the number of days since the last reported case, and number of deaths. We also make adjustments to the assignments based on population so rural areas are not assigned trends based solely on case rates, which can be quite high relative to local populations.Two key factors are not consistently known or available and should be taken into consideration with the assigned trend. First is the amount of resources, e.g., hospital beds, physicians, etc.that are currently available in each area. Second is the number of recoveries, which are often not tested or reported. On the latter, we provide a probable number of active cases based on CDC guidance for the typical duration of mild to severe cases.Reasons for undertaking this work in March of 2020:The popular online maps and dashboards show counts of confirmed cases, deaths, and recoveries by country or administrative sub-region. Comparing the counts of one country to another can only provide a basis for comparison during the initial stages of the outbreak when counts were low and the number of local outbreaks in each country was low. By late March 2020, countries with small populations were being left out of the mainstream news because it was not easy to recognize they had high per capita rates of cases (Switzerland, Luxembourg, Iceland, etc.). Additionally, comparing countries that have had confirmed COVID-19 cases for high numbers of days to countries where the outbreak occurred recently is also a poor basis for comparison.The graphs of confirmed cases and daily increases in cases were fit into a standard size rectangle, though the Y-axis for one country had a maximum value of 50, and for another country 100,000, which potentially misled people interpreting the slope of the curve. Such misleading circumstances affected comparing large population countries to small population counties or countries with low numbers of cases to China which had a large count of cases in the early part of the outbreak. These challenges for interpreting and comparing these graphs represent work each reader must do based on their experience and ability. Thus, we felt it would be a service to attempt to automate the thought process experts would use when visually analyzing these graphs, particularly the most recent tail of the graph, and provide readers with an a resulting synthesis to characterize the state of the pandemic in that country, state, or county.The lack of reliable data for confirmed recoveries and therefore active cases. Merely subtracting deaths from total cases to arrive at this figure progressively loses accuracy after two weeks. The reason is 81% of cases recover after experiencing mild symptoms in 10 to 14 days. Severe cases are 14% and last 15-30 days (based on average days with symptoms of 11 when admitted to hospital plus 12 days median stay, and plus of one week to include a full range of severely affected people who recover). Critical cases are 5% and last 31-56 days. Sources:U.S. CDC. April 3, 2020 Interim Clinical Guidance for Management of Patients with Confirmed Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19). Accessed online. Initial older guidance was also obtained online. Additionally, many people who recover may not be tested, and many who are, may not be tracked due to privacy laws. Thus, the formula used to compute an estimate of active cases is: Active Cases = 100% of new cases in past 14 days + 19% from past 15-25 days + 5% from past 26-49 days - total deaths. On 3/17/2022, the U.S. calculation was adjusted to: Active Cases = 100% of new cases in past 14 days + 6% from past 15-25 days + 3% from past 26-49 days - total deaths. Sources: https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/wr/mm7104e4.htm https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#variant-proportions If a new variant arrives and appears to cause higher rates of serious cases, we will roll back this adjustment. We’ve never been inside a pandemic with the ability to learn of new cases as they are confirmed anywhere in the world. After reviewing epidemiological and pandemic scientific literature, three needs arose. We need to specify which portions of the pandemic lifecycle this map cover. The World Health Organization (WHO) specifies six phases. The source data for this map begins just after the beginning of Phase 5: human to human spread and encompasses Phase 6: pandemic phase. Phase six is only characterized in terms of pre- and post-peak. However, these two phases are after-the-fact analyses and cannot ascertained during the event. Instead, we describe (below) a series of five trends for Phase 6 of the COVID-19 pandemic.Choosing terms to describe the five trends was informed by the scientific literature, particularly the use of epidemic, which signifies uncontrolled spread. The five trends are: Emergent, Spreading, Epidemic, Controlled, and End Stage. Not every locale will experience all five, but all will experience at least three: emergent, controlled, and end stage.This layer presents the current trends for the COVID-19 pandemic by country (or appropriate level). There are five trends:Emergent: Early stages of outbreak. Spreading: Early stages and depending on an administrative area’s capacity, this may represent a manageable rate of spread. Epidemic: Uncontrolled spread. Controlled: Very low levels of new casesEnd Stage: No New cases These trends can be applied at several levels of administration: Local: Ex., City, District or County – a.k.a. Admin level 2State: Ex., State or Province – a.k.a. Admin level 1National: Country – a.k.a. Admin level 0Recommend that at least 100,000 persons be represented by a unit; granted this may not be possible, and then the case rate per 100,000 will become more important.Key Concepts and Basis for Methodology: 10 Total Cases minimum threshold: Empirically, there must be enough cases to constitute an outbreak. Ideally, this would be 5.0 per 100,000, but not every area has a population of 100,000 or more. Ten, or fewer, cases are also relatively less difficult to track and trace to sources. 21 Days of Cases minimum threshold: Empirically based on COVID-19 and would need to be adjusted for any other event. 21 days is also the minimum threshold for analyzing the “tail” of the new cases curve, providing seven cases as the basis for a likely trend (note that 21 days in the tail is preferred). This is the minimum needed to encompass the onset and duration of a normal case (5-7 days plus 10-14 days). Specifically, a median of 5.1 days incubation time, and 11.2 days for 97.5% of cases to incubate. This is also driven by pressure to understand trends and could easily be adjusted to 28 days. Source
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The New York Times is releasing a series of data files with cumulative counts of coronavirus cases in the United States, at the state and county level, over time. We are compiling this time series data from state and local governments and health departments in an attempt to provide a complete record of the ongoing outbreak.
Since the first reported coronavirus case in Washington State on Jan. 21, 2020, The Times has tracked cases of coronavirus in real time as they were identified after testing. Because of the widespread shortage of testing, however, the data is necessarily limited in the picture it presents of the outbreak.
We have used this data to power our maps and reporting tracking the outbreak, and it is now being made available to the public in response to requests from researchers, scientists and government officials who would like access to the data to better understand the outbreak.
The data begins with the first reported coronavirus case in Washington State on Jan. 21, 2020. We will publish regular updates to the data in this repository.