According to the findings of the survey, almost 40 percent of Hungarians expect the country's economy to recover within a year after the coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak. Another four percent of respondents believed that Hungary's economy would never recover.
According to data from McKinsey, ** percent of respondents from the United States were optimistic about their country's economic recovery following COVID-19. ** percent of American respondents were pessimistic.
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This 6MB download is a zip file containing 5 pdf documents and 2 xlsx spreadsheets. Presentation on COVID-19 and the potential impacts on employment
May 2020Waka Kotahi wants to better understand the potential implications of the COVID-19 downturn on the land transport system, particularly the potential impacts on regional economies and communities.
To do this, in May 2020 Waka Kotahi commissioned Martin Jenkins and Infometrics to consider the potential impacts of COVID-19 on New Zealand’s economy and demographics, as these are two key drivers of transport demand. In addition to providing a scan of national and international COVID-19 trends, the research involved modelling the economic impacts of three of the Treasury’s COVID-19 scenarios, to a regional scale, to help us understand where the impacts might be greatest.
Waka Kotahi studied this modelling by comparing the percentage difference in employment forecasts from the Treasury’s three COVID-19 scenarios compared to the business as usual scenario.
The source tables from the modelling (Tables 1-40), and the percentage difference in employment forecasts (Tables 41-43), are available as spreadsheets.
Arataki - potential impacts of COVID-19 Final Report
Employment modelling - interactive dashboard
The modelling produced employment forecasts for each region and district over three time periods – 2021, 2025 and 2031. In May 2020, the forecasts for 2021 carried greater certainty as they reflected the impacts of current events, such as border restrictions, reduction in international visitors and students etc. The 2025 and 2031 forecasts were less certain because of the potential for significant shifts in the socio-economic situation over the intervening years. While these later forecasts were useful in helping to understand the relative scale and duration of potential COVID-19 related impacts around the country, they needed to be treated with care recognising the higher levels of uncertainty.
The May 2020 research suggested that the ‘slow recovery scenario’ (Treasury’s scenario 5) was the most likely due to continuing high levels of uncertainty regarding global efforts to manage the pandemic (and the duration and scale of the resulting economic downturn).
The updates to Arataki V2 were framed around the ‘Slower Recovery Scenario’, as that scenario remained the most closely aligned with the unfolding impacts of COVID-19 in New Zealand and globally at that time.
Find out more about Arataki, our 10-year plan for the land transport system
May 2021The May 2021 update to employment modelling used to inform Arataki Version 2 is now available. Employment modelling dashboard - updated 2021Arataki used the May 2020 information to compare how various regions and industries might be impacted by COVID-19. Almost a year later, it is clear that New Zealand fared better than forecast in May 2020.Waka Kotahi therefore commissioned an update to the projections through a high-level review of:the original projections for 2020/21 against performancethe implications of the most recent global (eg International monetary fund world economic Outlook) and national economic forecasts (eg Treasury half year economic and fiscal update)The treasury updated its scenarios in its December half year fiscal and economic update (HYEFU) and these new scenarios have been used for the revised projections.Considerable uncertainty remains about the potential scale and duration of the COVID-19 downturn, for example with regards to the duration of border restrictions, update of immunisation programmes. The updated analysis provides us with additional information regarding which sectors and parts of the country are likely to be most impacted. We continue to monitor the situation and keep up to date with other cross-Government scenario development and COVID-19 related work. The updated modelling has produced employment forecasts for each region and district over three time periods - 2022, 2025, 2031.The 2022 forecasts carry greater certainty as they reflect the impacts of current events. The 2025 and 2031 forecasts are less certain because of the potential for significant shifts over that time.
Data reuse caveats: as per license.
Additionally, please read / use this data in conjunction with the Infometrics and Martin Jenkins reports, to understand the uncertainties and assumptions involved in modelling the potential impacts of COVID-19.
COVID-19’s effect on industry and regional economic outcomes for NZ Transport Agency [PDF 620 KB]
Data quality statement: while the modelling undertaken is high quality, it represents two point-in-time analyses undertaken during a period of considerable uncertainty. This uncertainty comes from several factors relating to the COVID-19 pandemic, including:
a lack of clarity about the size of the global downturn and how quickly the international economy might recover differing views about the ability of the New Zealand economy to bounce back from the significant job losses that are occurring and how much of a structural change in the economy is required the possibility of a further wave of COVID-19 cases within New Zealand that might require a return to Alert Levels 3 or 4.
While high levels of uncertainty remain around the scale of impacts from the pandemic, particularly in coming years, the modelling is useful in indicating the direction of travel and the relative scale of impacts in different parts of the country.
Data quality caveats: as noted above, there is considerable uncertainty about the potential scale and duration of the COVID-19 downturn. Please treat the specific results of the modelling carefully, particularly in the forecasts to later years (2025, 2031), given the potential for significant shifts in New Zealand's socio-economic situation before then.
As such, please use the modelling results as a guide to the potential scale of the impacts of the downturn in different locations, rather than as a precise assessment of impacts over the coming decade.
In 2020, global gross domestic product declined by 6.7 percent as a result of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic outbreak. In Latin America, overall GDP loss amounted to 8.5 percent.
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Competition can drive productivity growth in Kosovo, especially in the context of the post-Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) recovery. As the economy rebuilds, it is key that markets function smoothly, and that anticompetitive firm behavior or government intervention do not constrain the path to recovery. Competitive product markets can help a country recover from economic shocks more quickly. Competition in product markets can also prop-up economic recovery in a more inclusive way for the poorest households. Kosovo has made significant progress towards pro-competition regulation of product markets but there is still significant room for improvement. Although the product market regulation (PMR) indicators are limited in scope and should therefore be considered as an entry point for further analysis, this assessment allows to identify potential constraints to competition and possible policy reforms. Kosovo can increase competition by: (a) eliminating public owned enterprise (POE) - related barriers to competition to ensure a level playing field for private and public operators in markets where they compete, (b) improving the regulatory process and facilitating business registration to boost market entry, and (c) introducing policy reforms in network sectors and professional services to eliminate regulatory barriers to competition and avoid anticompetitive practices.
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In many high-income economies, the recession caused by the Covid-19 pandemic has resulted in unprecedented declines in women’s employment. We examine how the forces that underlie this observation play out in developing countries, with a specific focus on Nigeria, the most populous country in Africa. A force affecting high- and low-income countries alike are increased childcare needs during school closures; in Nigeria, mothers of school-age children experience the largest declines in employment during the pandemic, just as in high-income countries. A key difference is the role of the sectoral distribution of employment: whereas in high-income economies reduced employment in contact-intensive services had a large impact on women, this sector plays a minor role in low-income countries. Another difference is that women’s employment rebounded much more quickly in low-income countries. We conjecture that large income losses without offsetting government transfers drive up labor supply in low-income countries during the recovery.
During the COVID-19 pandemic, the global economy was devastated. However, the virus indirectly impacted the environment, causing record emission reductions around the world. As global governments decide on post COVID-19 economic recovery plans, opportunities have arisen to introduce measures that will benefit the environment, and prioritize the climate crisis. In a poll with thousands of residents across 15 countries, many support a green economic recovery. The highest share of support was in India, at 81 percent. India was hit hard by the virus, but it also saw carbon emissions drop for the first time in four decades.
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Across the EU, about half of respondents (51%) report being aware of a Recovery Plan for their country to support economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. One third of respondents (33%) have seen, heard or read something about NextGenerationEU. Almost three-quarters of respondents (74%) think that the principle of solidarity is a good approach for the EU and seven in ten reply that this is a good approach for their country.
Processed data files for the Eurobarometer surveys are published in .xlsx format.
For SPSS files and questionnaires, please contact GESIS - Leibniz Institute for the Social Sciences: https://www.gesis.org/eurobarometer
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ObjectivesThe widespread impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on health systems, economies, and societies globally requires comprehensive data to guide effective recovery efforts. Online surveys have become crucial for rapid and extensive data collection. The Pandemic Response Survey (PRS), utilizing the Facebook Active User Base (FAUB), assessed the pandemic’s population-level impacts across 21 countries, gathering information on healthcare, vaccine confidence, trust, and economic and educational indicators.MethodsConducted from March to May 2023, the PRS, translated into 15 languages, used the FAUB for gender-stratified random sampling of adults 18 years and older. The survey collected responses from 621,000 individuals, achieving a completion rate of 43%. Non-response and inverse propensity score weights were applied to calibrate the data to known demographic totals, enhancing the survey’s generalizability.ResultsThe PRS findings reveal disparities in life satisfaction, food security, delayed healthcare, vaccine confidence, and trust across countries. Life satisfaction was reported as high by 70%–80% of respondents in Egypt, Nigeria, Colombia, and Mexico, while only 20%–30% of respondents in Indonesia, Turkiye, and Viet Nam reported the same. Approximately 50% of respondents in Nigeria, South Africa, and Colombia experienced food insecurity, in contrast to less than 10% in Italy, Japan, and Germany. In Germany, 44% of respondents expressed high vaccine confidence compared to 10.6% in South Africa. Over half of respondents in Indonesia (52.4%) reported that their child was up to date on routine immunisations.ConclusionThe PRS demonstrates the effectiveness of online surveys in capturing actionable data during a global health crisis. The findings underscore the importance of targeted interventions and policy decisions to address the multifaceted challenges of pandemic recovery. Collaborative efforts in data collection and knowledge sharing between nations with shared profiles may foster more effective strategies.
As of June 9, 2020, the coronavirus outbreak posed a level seven threat to businesses, meaning that severe and widespread economic impacts were likely. The composite index, which has level ten as its highest warning, was raised to level six on March 12 and to level seven on April 13.
Strong plans needed in response to coronavirus Countries are taking small steps on the road to economic recovery by gradually lifting lockdown measures. Manufacturing firms were among the first to return to work, and governments are now permitting shops, bars, and restaurants to reopen. However, there is no guarantee that consumers will return to their normal habits. In order to reduce the risks, businesses are being encouraged to activate contingency plans that include separating all essential operations from non-essential and focusing on high-priority areas and clients.
A focus on the U.S. economy COVID-19 has left the United States facing an economic crisis, and the country’s GDP fell by 4.8 percent in the first quarter of 2020. Record numbers of Americans have lost their jobs during the pandemic, and the unemployment rate jumped to 14.7 percent in April 2020. The Dow Jones, which monitors the stock prices of the 30 largest companies in the United States, has rallied since the U.S. economy restarted but continues to feel the effects of a destructive period that wiped out years of gains in a matter of weeks.
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Given that the effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines and other therapies is greatly limited by the continuously emerging variants, non-pharmaceutical interventions have been adopted as primary control strategies in the global fight against the COVID-19 pandemic. However, implementing strict interventions over extended periods of time is inevitably hurting the economy. Many countries are faced with the dilemma of how to take appropriate policy actions for socio-economic recovery while curbing the further spread of COVID-19. With an aim to solve this multi-objective decision-making problem, we investigate the underlying temporal dynamics and associations between policies, mobility patterns, and virus transmission through vector autoregressive models and the Toda-Yamamoto Granger causality test. Our findings reveal the presence of temporal lagged effects and Granger causality relationships among various transmission and human mobility variables. We further assess the effectiveness of existing COVID-19 control measures and explore potential optimal strategies that strike a balance between public health and socio-economic recovery for individual states in the U.S. by employing the Pareto optimality and genetic algorithms. The results highlight the joint power of the state of emergency declaration, wearing face masks, and the closure of bars, and emphasize the necessity of pursuing tailor-made strategies for different states and phases of epidemiological transmission. Our framework enables policymakers to create more refined designs of COVID-19 strategies and can be extended to other countries regarding best practices in pandemic response.
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Vietnamese economy suffered from COVID-19 in the first half of 2020, prospects remain positive for both the short and medium term. The main challenge for Vietnam will be finding new drivers of growth to consolidate the expected recovery. The country’s traditional sources of growth–foreign demand and private consumption–are unlikely to return to their pre-crisis levels soon, amid continued uncertainties both at home and abroad. COVID-19 has also caused a surge in inequality as the pandemic affects businesses and people differently as, for example, workers in the service sector has seen a bigger decline in their income than farmers.
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South Sudan is at a crossroads in its recovery, reconstruction, and development. With weak institutions and recurring cycles of violence, South Sudan remains caught in a web of fragility and economic stagnation a decade after independence. This Country Economic Memorandum (CEM) discusses South Sudan’s economic performance since independence, highlighting the need for the country to leverage its natural capital in the agriculture and oil sectors to support recovery and resilience. Economic recovery has stalled in South Sudan amid a multitude of crises, including the COVID-19 pandemic, climate shocks and dwindling oil production, and most recently, the adverse effect of the rise in commodity prices brought on by the war in Ukraine. A dearth of economic opportunities and food insecurity are major concerns, and are reinforced by inadequate provision of services, infrastructure deficits, displacement, and recurring climatic shocks. With the fragile peace deal largely holding despite challenges in implementation, the authorities initiated an ambitious reform program aimed at macroeconomic stabilization and modernization of the young country’s public financial management systems. Three messages emerge from this report. First, there is a peace dividend in South Sudan. South Sudan’s real GDP per capita in 2018 was estimated at one third of the counterfactual estimated for a non-conflict scenario. Thus, maintaining peace can by itself be a strong driver of growth. Second, with better governance and accountability, South Sudan’s oil resources can drive transformation. Third, South Sudan’s chronic food insecurity could be reversed with targeted investments to improve the resilience of the agricultural sector.
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The global health crisis initiated by the COVID-19 pandemic triggered unparalleled economic upheavals. In this comprehensive study of 16 countries categorized by their infection rates, we scrutinize the impact of a range of variables on stock market indices and calculate four critical ratios derived from those variables. Our regression analyses reveal striking differences in how the variables influenced stock indices in countries with low and high infection rates. Notably, in countries with low infection rates, all variables exhibited significant effects on stock returns. An increase in infection numbers and fatalities correlated with greater stock market declines, underscoring the market’s sensitivity to the health and economic risks posed by the pandemic. Recovery and testing rates also displayed positive associations with stock returns, reflecting investor optimism concerning potential recovery scenarios. Conversely, nations grappling with high infection rates experienced notably weaker effects from these variables. Although fatalities had a negative impact on stock indices, other factors, including recoveries, infections, and testing rates, did not result in significant effects. This suggests the likelihood that markets in high-infection countries had likely factored pandemic conditions into their pricing, thereby reducing the immediate impact of these metrics on stock returns. Our findings underscore the intricacies of the COVID-19 pandemic’s impact on stock markets and highlight the importance of tailored strategies and policies for distinct country categories. This study offers valuable insights for policymakers and investors navigating financial markets during global health crises and preparing for future epidemics.
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IntroductionThe COVID-19 pandemic emerged in a context that lacked adequate prevention, preparedness, and response (PPR) activities, and global, regional, and national leadership. South American countries were among world’s hardest hit by the pandemic, accounting for 10.1% of total cases and 20.1% of global deaths.MethodsThis study explores how pandemic PPR were affected by political, socioeconomic, and health system contexts as well as how PPR may have shaped pandemic outcomes in Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, and Peru. We then identify lessons learned and advance an agenda for improving PPR capacity at regional and national levels. We do this through a mixed-methods sequential explanatory study in four South American countries based on structured interviews and focus groups with elite policy makers.ResultsThe results of our study demonstrate that structural and contextual barriers limited PPR activities at political, social, and economic levels in each country, as well as through the structure of the health care system. Respondents believe that top-level government officials had insufficient political will for prioritizing pandemic PPR and post-COVID-19 recovery programs within their countries’ health agendas.DiscussionWe recommend a regional COVID-19 task force, post-pandemic recovery, social and economic protection for vulnerable groups, improved primary health care and surveillance systems, risk communication strategies, and community engagement to place pandemic PPR on Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, and Peru and other South American countries’ national public health agendas.
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Fault Lines Widen in the Global Recovery
Economic prospects have diverged further across countries since the April 2021 World Economic Outlook (WEO) forecast. Vaccine access has emerged as the principal fault line along which the global recovery splits into two blocs: those that can look forward to further normalization of activity later this year (almost all advanced economies) and those that will still face resurgent infections and rising COVID death tolls. The recovery, however, is not assured even in countries where infections are currently very low so long as the virus circulates elsewhere.
The global economy is projected to grow 6.0 percent in 2021 and 4.9 percent in 2022.The 2021 global forecast is unchanged from the April 2021 WEO, but with offsetting revisions. Prospects for emerging market and developing economies have been marked down for 2021, especially for Emerging Asia. By contrast, the forecast for advanced economies is revised up. These revisions reflect pandemic developments and changes in policy support. The 0.5 percentage-point upgrade for 2022 derives largely from the forecast upgrade for advanced economies, particularly the United States, reflecting the anticipated legislation of additional fiscal support in the second half of 2021 and improved health metrics more broadly across the group.
Recent price pressures for the most part reflect unusual pandemic-related developments and transitory supply-demand mismatches. Inflation is expected to return to its pre-pandemic ranges in most countries in 2022 once these disturbances work their way through prices, though uncertainty remains high. Elevated inflation is also expected in some emerging market and developing economies, related in part to high food prices. Central banks should generally look through transitory inflation pressures and avoid tightening until there is more clarity on underlying price dynamics. Clear communication from central banks on the outlook for monetary policy will be key to shaping inflation expectations and safeguarding against premature tightening of financial conditions. There is, however, a risk that transitory pressures could become more persistent and central banks may need to take preemptive action.
Risks around the global baseline are to the downside. Slower-than-anticipated vaccine rollout would allow the virus to mutate further. Financial conditions could tighten rapidly, for instance from a reassessment of the monetary policy outlook in advanced economies if inflation expectations increase more rapidly than anticipated. A double hit to emerging market and developing economies from worsening pandemic dynamics and tighter external financial conditions would severely set back their recovery and drag global growth below this outlook’s baseline.
Multilateral action has a vital role to play in diminishing divergences and strengthening global prospects. The immediate priority is to deploy vaccines equitably worldwide. A $50 billion IMF staff proposal, jointly endorsed by the World Health Organization, World Trade Organization, and World Bank, provides clear targets and pragmatic actions at a feasible cost to end the pandemic. Financially constrained economies also need unimpeded access to international liquidity. The proposed $650 billion General Allocation of Special Drawing Rights at the IMF is set to boost reserve assets of all economies and help ease liquidity constraints. Countries also need to redouble collective efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. These multilateral actions can be reinforced by national-level policies tailored to the stage of the crisis that help catalyze a sustainable, inclusive recovery. Concerted, well-directed policies can make the difference between a future of durable recoveries for all economies or one with widening fault lines—as many struggle with the health crisis while a handful see conditions normalize, albeit with the constant threat of renewed flare-ups.
The impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic had not only brought the global economy to a standstill but set the clock backwards on the developmental progress of several nations. While the rate of infection in India did not appear to be as high as in other countries, precautionary measures adopted dealt a severe blow to the country’s major industries - with the service sector bearing the largest brunt of estimated loss. Manufacturing made a swift recovery in the following months.
Impact of key industries
The loss incurred by enforcing a lockdown in the country was estimated at 26 billion U.S. dollars and a significant decline in GDP growth is also expected in the June quarter of 2020. With the imposition of restrictions on transportation worldwide, the trade sector also took a hit. Exports and imports saw a drastic decline in the country especially in the case of essential commodities such as petroleum, food crops, and coal, among others.
Effect on business in India
The growth rate of the automotive business in India was expected to be the most adversely affected followed by the power supply and IT sectors. Furthermore, many startups, small and medium enterprises in India expected to face issues of supply disruption and a decrease in demand. The effects of aid from the Narendra Modi-led government arguably did little to help in the face of a faltering economy.
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The global household Covid-19 testing market size was valued at approximately USD 2.5 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach USD 4.7 billion by 2032, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.1% during the forecast period. This growth is primarily driven by increased awareness and the necessity for at-home testing solutions that enable individuals to manage and monitor their health with convenience and reliability.
One of the primary growth factors for the household Covid-19 testing market is the persistent presence of the Covid-19 virus and the emergence of new variants. Despite mass vaccination efforts, the virus continues to mutate, creating a continuous need for testing to identify and manage outbreaks promptly. This is especially critical as countries aim to balance economic recovery with public health safety. The availability and accessibility of home testing kits provide a practical solution for immediate testing needs, reducing the burden on healthcare facilities.
Another significant growth driver is the advancements in testing technologies and the increasing affordability of test kits. Innovations in rapid antigen tests, PCR tests, and antibody tests have improved accuracy and reduced the time required to obtain results. Additionally, as manufacturing processes become more efficient, the costs associated with these tests are decreasing, making them more accessible to a broader population. This democratization of testing is crucial for widespread public health monitoring and individual well-being.
The convenience factor cannot be overlooked as a vital catalyst for market expansion. The ability to conduct tests at home without the need for professional supervision or visiting healthcare facilities is highly attractive to consumers. This convenience is particularly beneficial for vulnerable populations, including the elderly and those with underlying health conditions, who may face greater risks when exposed to public spaces. Furthermore, the integration of digital health platforms allows for seamless reporting and tracking of test results, enhancing the user experience and ensuring timely medical guidance if required.
Regionally, North America remains the dominant market for household Covid-19 testing due to its advanced healthcare infrastructure, high healthcare spending, and proactive measures to combat the pandemic. Europe follows closely, driven by similar factors, along with supportive government policies promoting at-home testing. The Asia Pacific region, however, is anticipated to witness the highest growth rate due to its large population base, increasing awareness about health and hygiene, and growing penetration of healthcare services in rural areas. These regions collectively contribute to the dynamic landscape of the global household Covid-19 testing market.
Covid 19 Wastewater Testing has emerged as a complementary approach to traditional testing methods, providing valuable insights into community-level virus prevalence. By analyzing wastewater samples, public health officials can detect the presence of the virus in a population, even before clinical cases are reported. This method offers a non-invasive and cost-effective way to monitor the spread of Covid-19, especially in areas with limited access to healthcare facilities. Wastewater testing can serve as an early warning system, allowing for timely interventions and resource allocation to curb potential outbreaks. As the technology advances, it holds the promise of becoming an integral part of public health strategies, enhancing the overall effectiveness of Covid-19 surveillance and response efforts.
The household Covid-19 testing market by product type is segmented into rapid antigen tests, PCR tests, and antibody tests. Rapid antigen tests are highly sought after due to their quick turnaround time and ease of use. They are designed to detect specific proteins from the virus and provide results within 15-30 minutes. This immediacy makes them highly valuable for situations requiring prompt decision-making, such as before travel or attending large gatherings. The affordability and accessibility of rapid antigen tests contribute significantly to their popularity and market share.
PCR tests, although more time-consuming and requiring laboratory processing, remain the gold standard in Covid-19 testing due to their high accuracy and sensitivity. They dete
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The impact of the coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic on different countries and populations is well documented in quantitative studies, with some studies showing stable mental health symptoms and others showing fluctuating symptoms. However, the reasons behind why some symptoms are stable and others change are under-explored, which in turn makes identifying the types of support needed by participants themselves challenging. To address these gaps, this study thematically analysed 925 qualitative responses from five open-ended responses collected in the UCL-Penn Global COVID Study between 17 April to 31 July 2021 (wave 3). Three key themes comprised of 13 codes were reported by participants across countries and ages regarding the impact of COVID-19 on their health, both mental and physical, and livelihoods. These include: 1) Outlook on self/life, 2) Self-improvement, and 3) Loved ones (friends and family). In terms of support, while 2.91% did not require additional support, 91% wanted support beyond financial. Other unexpected new themes were also discussed regarding vulnerable populations suffering disproportionately. The pandemic has brought into sharp focus various changes in people’s mental health, physical health, and relationships. Greater policy considerations should be given to supporting citizens’ continued access to mental health when considering pandemic recovery.
According to the findings of the survey, almost 40 percent of Hungarians expect the country's economy to recover within a year after the coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak. Another four percent of respondents believed that Hungary's economy would never recover.