The coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, has had a significant impact on the global economy. In 2020, global Gross Domestic Product (GDP) decreased by *** percent, while the forecast initially was *** percent GDP growth. As the world's governments are working towards a fast economic recovery, the GDP increased again in 2021 by *** percent. Global GDP increased by over ***** percent in 2022, but it is still not clear to what extent Russia's war in Ukraine will impact the global economy. Global GDP growth is expected to slow somewhat in 2023.

In 2020, global gross domestic product declined by 6.7 percent as a result of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic outbreak. In Latin America, overall GDP loss amounted to 8.5 percent.

Cambodia’s economic recovery solidified in 2022 with real growth accelerating to 5.2 percent. After shifting to “living with COVID-19” in late 2021, the economy is firmly on a path to recovery and has now returned to its pre-pandemic growth trajectory. Initially led by the strong performance of export-oriented manufacturing, growth drivers are rotating to the services and agriculture sectors. Driven by pent-up consumer demand, the overall contribution of the services sector to economic growth is returning to the 2019 levels. Underpinned by the complete removal of COVID-19-related mobility restrictions and China’s recent reopening, international arrivals have picked up, reaching 830,000 during the first two months of 2023, approaching pre-pandemic levels.

This project folder contains supplementary data files and software codes (for STATA) to replicate the estimation results documented in:

"Can large-scale RDI funding stimulate post-crisis recovery growth? Evidence for Finland during COVID-19"

by Mitze, T. and Makkonen, T. (2022).

A previous working paper version of this research can be found in the arXiv repository with ID: arXiv:2112.11562

Link to working paper: https://arxiv.org/abs/2112.11562

This 6MB download is a zip file containing 5 pdf documents and 2 xlsx spreadsheets. Presentation on COVID-19 and the potential impacts on employment

May 2020Waka Kotahi wants to better understand the potential implications of the COVID-19 downturn on the land transport system, particularly the potential impacts on regional economies and communities.

To do this, in May 2020 Waka Kotahi commissioned Martin Jenkins and Infometrics to consider the potential impacts of COVID-19 on New Zealand’s economy and demographics, as these are two key drivers of transport demand. In addition to providing a scan of national and international COVID-19 trends, the research involved modelling the economic impacts of three of the Treasury’s COVID-19 scenarios, to a regional scale, to help us understand where the impacts might be greatest.

Waka Kotahi studied this modelling by comparing the percentage difference in employment forecasts from the Treasury’s three COVID-19 scenarios compared to the business as usual scenario.

The source tables from the modelling (Tables 1-40), and the percentage difference in employment forecasts (Tables 41-43), are available as spreadsheets.

Arataki - potential impacts of COVID-19 Final Report

Employment modelling - interactive dashboard

The modelling produced employment forecasts for each region and district over three time periods – 2021, 2025 and 2031. In May 2020, the forecasts for 2021 carried greater certainty as they reflected the impacts of current events, such as border restrictions, reduction in international visitors and students etc. The 2025 and 2031 forecasts were less certain because of the potential for significant shifts in the socio-economic situation over the intervening years. While these later forecasts were useful in helping to understand the relative scale and duration of potential COVID-19 related impacts around the country, they needed to be treated with care recognising the higher levels of uncertainty.

The May 2020 research suggested that the ‘slow recovery scenario’ (Treasury’s scenario 5) was the most likely due to continuing high levels of uncertainty regarding global efforts to manage the pandemic (and the duration and scale of the resulting economic downturn).

The updates to Arataki V2 were framed around the ‘Slower Recovery Scenario’, as that scenario remained the most closely aligned with the unfolding impacts of COVID-19 in New Zealand and globally at that time.

Find out more about Arataki, our 10-year plan for the land transport system

May 2021The May 2021 update to employment modelling used to inform Arataki Version 2 is now available. Employment modelling dashboard - updated 2021Arataki used the May 2020 information to compare how various regions and industries might be impacted by COVID-19. Almost a year later, it is clear that New Zealand fared better than forecast in May 2020.Waka Kotahi therefore commissioned an update to the projections through a high-level review of:the original projections for 2020/21 against performancethe implications of the most recent global (eg International monetary fund world economic Outlook) and national economic forecasts (eg Treasury half year economic and fiscal update)The treasury updated its scenarios in its December half year fiscal and economic update (HYEFU) and these new scenarios have been used for the revised projections.Considerable uncertainty remains about the potential scale and duration of the COVID-19 downturn, for example with regards to the duration of border restrictions, update of immunisation programmes. The updated analysis provides us with additional information regarding which sectors and parts of the country are likely to be most impacted. We continue to monitor the situation and keep up to date with other cross-Government scenario development and COVID-19 related work. The updated modelling has produced employment forecasts for each region and district over three time periods - 2022, 2025, 2031.The 2022 forecasts carry greater certainty as they reflect the impacts of current events. The 2025 and 2031 forecasts are less certain because of the potential for significant shifts over that time.

Data reuse caveats: as per license.

Additionally, please read / use this data in conjunction with the Infometrics and Martin Jenkins reports, to understand the uncertainties and assumptions involved in modelling the potential impacts of COVID-19.

COVID-19’s effect on industry and regional economic outcomes for NZ Transport Agency [PDF 620 KB]

Data quality statement: while the modelling undertaken is high quality, it represents two point-in-time analyses undertaken during a period of considerable uncertainty. This uncertainty comes from several factors relating to the COVID-19 pandemic, including:

a lack of clarity about the size of the global downturn and how quickly the international economy might recover differing views about the ability of the New Zealand economy to bounce back from the significant job losses that are occurring and how much of a structural change in the economy is required the possibility of a further wave of COVID-19 cases within New Zealand that might require a return to Alert Levels 3 or 4.

While high levels of uncertainty remain around the scale of impacts from the pandemic, particularly in coming years, the modelling is useful in indicating the direction of travel and the relative scale of impacts in different parts of the country.

Data quality caveats: as noted above, there is considerable uncertainty about the potential scale and duration of the COVID-19 downturn. Please treat the specific results of the modelling carefully, particularly in the forecasts to later years (2025, 2031), given the potential for significant shifts in New Zealand's socio-economic situation before then.

As such, please use the modelling results as a guide to the potential scale of the impacts of the downturn in different locations, rather than as a precise assessment of impacts over the coming decade.

The data hub publishes a broad set of measures across pertinent topics such as public health, government spending, personal finances, and employment to assess the longer-term economic impact of the pandemic and the efficacy of recovery efforts. It includes indicators on health (COVID-19 cases, deaths), economy (unemployment claims, retail sales, air travel passengers, etc), standard of living (household spending, personal income, food scarcity, housing insecurity, etc), and government (federal government spending, federal reserve assets, state tax revenue, federal deficit).

According to a survey conducted by Ipsos, ** percent of respondents from Vietnam stated that they strongly or somewhat agreed that the economy would recover quickly once the lockdown was over. Compared to other countries, Vietnamese respondents were the most confident that the economy would recover.

The purpose of the research is to examine the economic impact of COVID 19 on small and medium-sized enterprises in the short and long terms.

In a survey conducted in September 2020, regarding consumer perception surrounding the economic recovery after coronavirus (COVID-19) in India, ** percent of the respondents are positive that the economy will bounce back to pre-COVID levels in the next few months. Majority of the respondents disagree that COVID-19 would cause a significant recession or a major economic depression.

Linear regression (multivariable) of total recoveries per million and predictor variables.

The growth of the Danish gross domestic product (GDP) in 2020 was minus 2.1 percent. This is due to the outbreak of the coronavirus (COVID-19). However, the GDP recovered in 2021, growing by almost five percent. Denmark's GDP was forecast to grow by two percent in 2024.

In 2021, Italy's GDP might recover by *** percent compared to the previous year. Similarly, an increase of around *** percent has been projected for 2022.

For further information about the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, please visit our dedicated Facts and Figures page.

Linear regression (multivariable) of total cases per million and predictor variables.

According to the findings of the survey, almost 40 percent of Hungarians expect the country's economy to recover within a year after the coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak. Another four percent of respondents believed that Hungary's economy would never recover.

As of November 2021, the U.S. goverment dedicated ***** percent of the GDP to soften the effects of the coronavirus pandemic. This translates to stimulus packages worth **** trillion U.S. dollars Economic impact of the Coronavirus pandemic The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic was felt throughout the whole world. Lockdowns forced many industries to close completely for many months and restrictions were put on almost all economic activity. In 2020, the worldwide GDP loss due to Covid was *** percent. The global unemployment rate rocketed to **** percent in 2020 and confidence in governments’ ability to deal with the crisis diminished significantly. Governmental response In order to stimulate the economies and bring them out of recession, many countries have decided to release so called stimulus packages. These are fiscal and monetary policies used to support the recovery process. Through application of lower taxes and interest rates, direct financial aid, or facilitated access to funding, the governments aim to boost the employment, investment, and demand. Stimulus packages Until November 2021, Japan has dedicated the largest share of the GDP to stimulus packages among the G20 countries, with ***** percent (*** trillion Yen or **** trillion U.S. dollars). While the first help package aimed at maintaining employment and securing businesses, the second and third ones focused more on structural changes and positive developments in the country in the post-pandemic future.

As of May 2024, real gross domestic product (GDP) growth in South Korea was forecasted at *** percent for 2024 and *** percent for 2025. The coronavirus (COVID-19) adversely affected the South Korean economy, which, however, quickly recovered as early as 2021.

Linear regression (multivariable) of total cases of deaths per million and predictor variables.

How Liquidity and Shifts due to Coronavirus maneuvering APAC Corp Downgrades?

The recovery for APAC GDP growth and earnings is anticipated to stretch to 2023. The COVID 19 Pandemic can knock Asia Pacific incomes losing USD 250 Billion and the slowdown of GDP growth to 3.5-4% in 2020 The top risks during this recovery include leverage build-up, COVID-19 economic disruption, U.S.-China tactical confrontation econom.....

Spearman’s rank-order correlations between variables.

Parameters of the Mark-0 model relevant for this chapter, together with their symbol and baseline values.