In 2023, the U.S. Consumer Price Index was 309.42, and is projected to increase to 352.27 by 2029. The base period was 1982-84. The monthly CPI for all urban consumers in the U.S. can be accessed here. After a time of high inflation, the U.S. inflation rateis projected fall to two percent by 2027. United States Consumer Price Index ForecastIt is projected that the CPI will continue to rise year over year, reaching 325.6 in 2027. The Consumer Price Index of all urban consumers in previous years was lower, and has risen every year since 1992, except in 2009, when the CPI went from 215.30 in 2008 to 214.54 in 2009. The monthly unadjusted Consumer Price Index was 296.17 for the month of August in 2022. The U.S. CPI measures changes in the price of consumer goods and services purchased by households and is thought to reflect inflation in the U.S. as well as the health of the economy. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics calculates the CPI and defines it as, "a measure of the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services." The BLS records the price of thousands of goods and services month by month. They consider goods and services within eight main categories: food and beverage, housing, apparel, transportation, medical care, recreation, education, and other goods and services. They aggregate the data collected in order to compare how much it would cost a consumer to buy the same market basket of goods and services within one month or one year compared with the previous month or year. Given that the CPI is used to calculate U.S. inflation, the CPI influences the annual adjustments of many financial institutions in the United States, both private and public. Wages, social security payments, and pensions are all affected by the CPI.

Switzerland Consumer Price Index (CPI): Local Source Base Year: Health data was reported at 98.789 Dec2020=100 in Dec 2023. This records a decrease from the previous number of 99.000 Dec2020=100 for Nov 2023. Switzerland Consumer Price Index (CPI): Local Source Base Year: Health data is updated monthly, averaging 101.484 Dec2020=100 from Dec 1982 (Median) to Dec 2023, with 493 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 106.970 Dec2020=100 in Apr 2010 and a record low of 63.980 Dec2020=100 in Dec 1982. Switzerland Consumer Price Index (CPI): Local Source Base Year: Health data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Switzerland – Table CH.OECD.MEI: Consumer Price Index: COICOP 1999: OECD Member. The index measures changes in the price of a basket of goods and services bought by private households. Type of prices: Cash prices on an acquisition basis, unconditional subsidies and discounts are reflected. Sale prices recorded in temporary reductions, money off coupons, loyalty cards, free gifts are ignored. Rents are net of electricity, water and heating charges. Rebates: Rebates are considered on a case by case basis Method of collection: Most prices are collected from retail sales outlets and service establishments (for some major retailers with a central pricing policy supply prices directly to SFSO using printed or electronic forms). There is central collection for utilities either by printed form or by telephone. Central collection is used from mail order catalogues for clothing, electrical goods, household furniture, or by means of mail and questionnaires. Treatment of rentals for housing: The index icludes a measure of rented housing Treatment of Owner-Occupied Housing: The rental equivalence method is used. The weight for owners is included in rents. Treatment of missing prices: If a price is temporarily unavailable (not more than 3 months), last price collected is carried forward. if the price is permanently unavailable, then a replacement is selected. Treatment of quality changes: Small quality changes are not taken into account, while prices are adjusted for substantial quality change, wherever quality difference can be quantified. Otherwise products are considered as totally new ones and they are linked into the index. Replacement items: Price collectors select products with significant market share and, where possible, with the same quality. The quality is defined in terms of characteristics listed in the product description (collectors consult retailers on these issues). Introduction of new items: The list of varieties is reviewed continuously and rules are established to introduce new products. Treatment of seasonal items: Fresh fruit and vegetables prices are collected for pre-specified months and the last available price is carried forward for months with no collection. The weights are held constant throughout year for all the types of fruit and vegetables.; Index series starts in January 1982

Switzerland Consumer Price Index (CPI): Local Source Base Year: Education data was reported at 102.752 Dec2020=100 in Dec 2023. This stayed constant from the previous number of 102.752 Dec2020=100 for Nov 2023. Switzerland Consumer Price Index (CPI): Local Source Base Year: Education data is updated monthly, averaging 79.591 Dec2020=100 from Dec 1982 (Median) to Dec 2023, with 493 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 102.752 Dec2020=100 in Dec 2023 and a record low of 36.978 Dec2020=100 in Jan 1983. Switzerland Consumer Price Index (CPI): Local Source Base Year: Education data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Switzerland – Table CH.OECD.MEI: Consumer Price Index: COICOP 1999: OECD Member. The index measures changes in the price of a basket of goods and services bought by private households. Type of prices: Cash prices on an acquisition basis, unconditional subsidies and discounts are reflected. Sale prices recorded in temporary reductions, money off coupons, loyalty cards, free gifts are ignored. Rents are net of electricity, water and heating charges. Rebates: Rebates are considered on a case by case basis Method of collection: Most prices are collected from retail sales outlets and service establishments (for some major retailers with a central pricing policy supply prices directly to SFSO using printed or electronic forms). There is central collection for utilities either by printed form or by telephone. Central collection is used from mail order catalogues for clothing, electrical goods, household furniture, or by means of mail and questionnaires. Treatment of rentals for housing: The index icludes a measure of rented housing Treatment of Owner-Occupied Housing: The rental equivalence method is used. The weight for owners is included in rents. Treatment of missing prices: If a price is temporarily unavailable (not more than 3 months), last price collected is carried forward. if the price is permanently unavailable, then a replacement is selected. Treatment of quality changes: Small quality changes are not taken into account, while prices are adjusted for substantial quality change, wherever quality difference can be quantified. Otherwise products are considered as totally new ones and they are linked into the index. Replacement items: Price collectors select products with significant market share and, where possible, with the same quality. The quality is defined in terms of characteristics listed in the product description (collectors consult retailers on these issues). Introduction of new items: The list of varieties is reviewed continuously and rules are established to introduce new products. Treatment of seasonal items: Fresh fruit and vegetables prices are collected for pre-specified months and the last available price is carried forward for months with no collection. The weights are held constant throughout year for all the types of fruit and vegetables.; Index series starts in January 1982

In October 2025, consumer prices in Germany increased by around 2.3 percent compared to the same month of the previous year. The inflation rate is calculated using the price increase of a product basket defined by the German Federal Statistical Office. This product basket contains services and products, on which the average consumer spends money throughout the year. This includes expenses for groceries, clothes, rent, power, telecommunications, recreational activities and raw materials (i.e. gas, oil), as well as federal fees and taxes.The term inflation means the devaluation of money caused by the increase of the price level of products (consumer goods, investment goods). The Consumer Price Index shows the price trends for private consumption expenses and shows the current inflation level when increasing.

Switzerland Consumer Price Index (CPI): Local Source Base Year: Recreation and Culture data was reported at 104.995 Dec2020=100 in Dec 2023. This records a decrease from the previous number of 105.410 Dec2020=100 for Nov 2023. Switzerland Consumer Price Index (CPI): Local Source Base Year: Recreation and Culture data is updated monthly, averaging 106.398 Dec2020=100 from Dec 1982 (Median) to Dec 2023, with 493 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 116.120 Dec2020=100 in Apr 2000 and a record low of 81.729 Dec2020=100 in Jun 1983. Switzerland Consumer Price Index (CPI): Local Source Base Year: Recreation and Culture data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Switzerland – Table CH.OECD.MEI: Consumer Price Index: COICOP 1999: OECD Member. The index measures changes in the price of a basket of goods and services bought by private households. Type of prices: Cash prices on an acquisition basis, unconditional subsidies and discounts are reflected. Sale prices recorded in temporary reductions, money off coupons, loyalty cards, free gifts are ignored. Rents are net of electricity, water and heating charges. Rebates: Rebates are considered on a case by case basis Method of collection: Most prices are collected from retail sales outlets and service establishments (for some major retailers with a central pricing policy supply prices directly to SFSO using printed or electronic forms). There is central collection for utilities either by printed form or by telephone. Central collection is used from mail order catalogues for clothing, electrical goods, household furniture, or by means of mail and questionnaires. Treatment of rentals for housing: The index icludes a measure of rented housing Treatment of Owner-Occupied Housing: The rental equivalence method is used. The weight for owners is included in rents. Treatment of missing prices: If a price is temporarily unavailable (not more than 3 months), last price collected is carried forward. if the price is permanently unavailable, then a replacement is selected. Treatment of quality changes: Small quality changes are not taken into account, while prices are adjusted for substantial quality change, wherever quality difference can be quantified. Otherwise products are considered as totally new ones and they are linked into the index. Replacement items: Price collectors select products with significant market share and, where possible, with the same quality. The quality is defined in terms of characteristics listed in the product description (collectors consult retailers on these issues). Introduction of new items: The list of varieties is reviewed continuously and rules are established to introduce new products. Treatment of seasonal items: Fresh fruit and vegetables prices are collected for pre-specified months and the last available price is carried forward for months with no collection. The weights are held constant throughout year for all the types of fruit and vegetables.; Index series starts in January 1982

Switzerland Consumer Price Index (CPI): Local Source Base Year: Communication data was reported at 97.496 Dec2020=100 in Dec 2023. This records a decrease from the previous number of 97.517 Dec2020=100 for Nov 2023. Switzerland Consumer Price Index (CPI): Local Source Base Year: Communication data is updated monthly, averaging 142.144 Dec2020=100 from Dec 1982 (Median) to Dec 2023, with 493 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 226.231 Dec2020=100 in Jun 1995 and a record low of 96.512 Dec2020=100 in Oct 2022. Switzerland Consumer Price Index (CPI): Local Source Base Year: Communication data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Switzerland – Table CH.OECD.MEI: Consumer Price Index: COICOP 1999: OECD Member. The index measures changes in the price of a basket of goods and services bought by private households. Type of prices: Cash prices on an acquisition basis, unconditional subsidies and discounts are reflected. Sale prices recorded in temporary reductions, money off coupons, loyalty cards, free gifts are ignored. Rents are net of electricity, water and heating charges. Rebates: Rebates are considered on a case by case basis Method of collection: Most prices are collected from retail sales outlets and service establishments (for some major retailers with a central pricing policy supply prices directly to SFSO using printed or electronic forms). There is central collection for utilities either by printed form or by telephone. Central collection is used from mail order catalogues for clothing, electrical goods, household furniture, or by means of mail and questionnaires. Treatment of rentals for housing: The index icludes a measure of rented housing Treatment of Owner-Occupied Housing: The rental equivalence method is used. The weight for owners is included in rents. Treatment of missing prices: If a price is temporarily unavailable (not more than 3 months), last price collected is carried forward. if the price is permanently unavailable, then a replacement is selected. Treatment of quality changes: Small quality changes are not taken into account, while prices are adjusted for substantial quality change, wherever quality difference can be quantified. Otherwise products are considered as totally new ones and they are linked into the index. Replacement items: Price collectors select products with significant market share and, where possible, with the same quality. The quality is defined in terms of characteristics listed in the product description (collectors consult retailers on these issues). Introduction of new items: The list of varieties is reviewed continuously and rules are established to introduce new products. Treatment of seasonal items: Fresh fruit and vegetables prices are collected for pre-specified months and the last available price is carried forward for months with no collection. The weights are held constant throughout year for all the types of fruit and vegetables.; Index series starts in January 1982

Inflation Rate in India decreased to 0.25 percent in October from 1.44 percent in September of 2025. This dataset provides - India Inflation Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

DESCRIPTION

One of the leading retail stores in the US, Walmart, would like to predict the sales and demand accurately. There are certain events and holidays which impact sales on each day. There are sales data available for 45 stores of Walmart. The business is facing a challenge due to unforeseen demands and runs out of stock some times, due to the inappropriate machine learning algorithm. An ideal ML algorithm will predict demand accurately and ingest factors like economic conditions including CPI, Unemployment Index, etc.

Walmart runs several promotional markdown events throughout the year. These markdowns precede prominent holidays, the four largest of all, which are the Super Bowl, Labour Day, Thanksgiving, and Christmas. The weeks including these holidays are weighted five times higher in the evaluation than non-holiday weeks. Part of the challenge presented by this competition is modeling the effects of markdowns on these holiday weeks in the absence of complete/ideal historical data. Historical sales data for 45 Walmart stores located in different regions are available.

**Dataset Description **

This is the historical data that covers sales from 2010-02-05 to 2012-11-01, in the file Walmart_Store_sales. Within this file you will find the following fields:

1. Store - the store number

2. Date - the week of sales

3. Weekly_Sales - sales for the given store

4. Holiday_Flag - whether the week is a special holiday week 1 – Holiday week 0 – Non-holiday week

5. Temperature - Temperature on the day of sale

6. Fuel_Price - Cost of fuel in the region

7. CPI – Prevailing consumer price index

8. Unemployment - Prevailing unemployment rate

Holiday Events

Super Bowl: 12-Feb-10, 11-Feb-11, 10-Feb-12, 8-Feb-13 Labour Day: 10-Sep-10, 9-Sep-11, 7-Sep-12, 6-Sep-13 Thanksgiving: 26-Nov-10, 25-Nov-11, 23-Nov-12, 29-Nov-13 Christmas: 31-Dec-10, 30-Dec-11, 28-Dec-12, 27-Dec-13

Analysis Tasks

Basic Statistics tasks

1. Which store has maximum sales

2. Which store has maximum standard deviation i.e., the sales vary a lot. Also, find out the coefficient of mean to standard deviation

3. Which store/s has good quarterly growth rate in Q3’2012

4. Some holidays have a negative impact on sales. Find out holidays which have higher sales than the mean sales in non-holiday season for all stores together

5. Provide a monthly and semester view of sales in units and give insights

Statistical Model

For Store 1 – Build prediction models to forecast demand

1. Linear Regression – Utilize variables like date and restructure dates as 1 for 5 Feb 2010 (starting from the earliest date in order). Hypothesize if CPI, unemployment, and fuel price have any impact on sales.

2. Change dates into days by creating new variable.

Inflation is generally defined as the continued increase in the average prices of goods and services in a given region. Following the extremely high global inflation experienced in the 1980s and 1990s, global inflation has been relatively stable since the turn of the millennium, usually hovering between three and five percent per year. There was a sharp increase in 2008 due to the global financial crisis now known as the Great Recession, but inflation was fairly stable throughout the 2010s, before the current inflation crisis began in 2021. Recent years Despite the economic impact of the coronavirus pandemic, the global inflation rate fell to 3.26 percent in the pandemic's first year, before rising to 4.66 percent in 2021. This increase came as the impact of supply chain delays began to take more of an effect on consumer prices, before the Russia-Ukraine war exacerbated this further. A series of compounding issues such as rising energy and food prices, fiscal instability in the wake of the pandemic, and consumer insecurity have created a new global recession, and global inflation in 2024 is estimated to have reached 5.76 percent. This is the highest annual increase in inflation since 1996. Venezuela Venezuela is the country with the highest individual inflation rate in the world, forecast at around 200 percent in 2022. While this is figure is over 100 times larger than the global average in most years, it actually marks a decrease in Venezuela's inflation rate, which had peaked at over 65,000 percent in 2018. Between 2016 and 2021, Venezuela experienced hyperinflation due to the government's excessive spending and printing of money in an attempt to curve its already-high inflation rate, and the wave of migrants that left the country resulted in one of the largest refugee crises in recent years. In addition to its economic problems, political instability and foreign sanctions pose further long-term problems for Venezuela. While hyperinflation may be coming to an end, it remains to be seen how much of an impact this will have on the economy, how living standards will change, and how many refugees may return in the coming years.

In May 2025, the inflation rate in Russia stood at **** percent compared to the same month in the previous year, showing an increase. The rate has been decreasing since March 2025. The highest rate during the observed period was recorded in April 2022, at **** percent. The term inflation means the devaluation of money caused by a permanent increase in the price level for products (consumer goods, investment goods). The Consumer Price Index (CPI) shows the price development for private expenses and shows the current level of inflation when increasing. Russia's economy, an outlook The Russian economy was expected to grow by *** percent in 2025 despite the Western sanctions over the war in Ukraine that began in February 2022. At the same time, consumer prices were projected to grow by around **** percent in 2025 relative to the previous year. In 2024, the inflation rate was estimated at **** percent. Prices in Russia Russia’s economy is highly dependent on and affected by the price of oil. The price of the Urals crude oil stood at approximately ***** U.S. dollars per barrel in April 2025, having demonstrated a decrease from the previous month. The highest producer price index (PPI) was recorded in the electricity and gas supply sector, with a price growth rate of over ** percent in September 2024.

View Reuters Polls to understand the views of top forecasters in financial markets, and gain polling history of detailed forecasts and consensus estimates.

From January 2020 through January 2025, the value of money market funds under management in the United Kingdom (UK) remained relatively stable aside from one notable spike in value in October 2022, by January 2023, however, the spike had subsided, and fund levels had fallen below ** million British pounds.

How are money market yields linked to inflation? The money market yields are influenced by inflation expectations. When inflation expectations rise, investors typically demand higher nominal yields to offset the anticipated decline in purchasing power. Market sentiment regarding inflation is reflected in these yields, which act as indicators for both investors and policymakers. The inflation rate for the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the United Kingdom went from under *** percent in March 2021 to a high of **** percent in October 2022. Although inflation declined to *** percent in October 2023, it remained well above the levels seen before 2021. Consequently, a significant increase in money market yields was observed. Beginning in 2022, the monthly average yields from the British government bonds continued to rise until they reached their peak in mid-2023, indicating higher inflation expectations.

What is LIBOR? The London Interbank Offered Rate, or LIBOR, is a benchmark interest rate that reflects the average interest rate at which major global banks lend to each other in the interbank market. It is used to establish interest rates for financial instruments such as adjustable-rate mortgages, business loans, and derivatives. The six-month overnight London Interbank Offered Rate based on the British pound increased month by month from 2022 onwards, reaching its peak in March 2023 at **** percent. This increase in borrowing costs has a ripple effect throughout the financial system, which means higher interest rates for businesses and consumers overall.

Consumer Confidence in the United States decreased to 51 points in November from 53.60 points in October of 2025. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - United States Consumer Sentiment - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.