Inflation is an important measure of any country’s economy, and the Retail Price Index (RPI) is one of the most widely used indicators in the United Kingdom, with the rate expected to be 4.1 percent in 2025, compared with 3.6 percent in 2024. This followed 2022, when RPI inflation reached a rate of 11.6 percent, by far the highest annual rate during this provided time period. CPI vs RPI Although the Retail Price Index is a commonly utilized inflation indicator, the UK also uses a newer method of calculating inflation, the Consumer Price Index. The CPI, along with the CPIH (Consumer Price Index including owner occupiers' housing costs) are usually preferred by the UK government, but the RPI is still used in certain instances. Increases in rail fares for example, are calculated using the RPI, while increases in pension payments are calculated using CPI, when this is used as the uprating factor. The use of one inflation measure over the other can therefore have a significant impact on people’s lives in the UK. High inflation falls to more typical levels by 2024 Like the Retail Price Index, the Consumer Price Index inflation rate also reached a recent peak in October 2022. In that month, prices were rising by 11.1 percent and did not fall below double figures until April 2023. This fall was largely due to slower price increases in key sectors such as energy, which drove a significant amount of the 2022 wave of inflation. Inflation nevertheless remains elevated, fueled not only by high food inflation, but also by underlying core inflation. As of February 2025, the overall CPI inflation rate was 2.8 percent, although an uptick in inflation is expected later in the year, with a rate of 3.7 percent forecast for the third quarter of the year.
The inflation rate for the Retail Price Index (RPI) in the United Kingdom was 4.4 percent in June 2025, up from 4.3 percent in the previous month. From 2021 onwards, prices in the UK rose rapidly, with the RPI inflation rate peaking at 14.2 percent in October 2022. Although inflation fell in subsequent months, it wasn't until July 2023 that inflation fell below double digits, and as of late 2024, the RPI rate was still above three percent. The CPI and CPIH While the retail price index is still a popular method of calculating inflation, the consumer price index (CPI) is the current main measurement of inflation in the UK. There is also an additional price index, which includes some extra housing costs, known as the Consumer Price Index including homer occupiers' costs (CPIH) index, which is seen by the UK's Office of National Statistics as the official inflation rate. As of December 2024, the CPI inflation rate stood at 2.5 percent, while the CPIH rate was 3.5 percent. Core inflation down in 2024 Another way of measuring inflation is to strip out the volatility of energy and food prices and look at the underlying core inflation rate. As of December 2024, this was 3.2 percent, slightly higher than the overall CPI rate, but more aligned with the overall figure than it was in 2022 and 2023. When inflation peaked at 11.2 percent in October 2022, for example, core inflation stood at just 6.5 percent. After energy prices in 2023 fell relative to 2022, the overall inflation rate in the UK declined quite rapidly, with core inflation overtaking the overall rate in July 2023. During the most recent period of high inflation, core inflation peaked at 7.1 percent in May 2023, and while taking longer to fall than the overall figure, has generally been declining since then.
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Measures of monthly UK inflation data including CPIH, CPI and RPI. These tables complement the consumer price inflation time series dataset.
The Retail Price Index (RPI) is one of the main measures of inflation used to calculate the change in the price of goods and services within the British economy. In the second quarter of 2025 the index value was 403.2, indicating that the price for a fixed basket of goods had increased by almost more than 300 percent since 1987. The RPI inflation rate for June 2025 was 4.4 percent, up from 3.2 percent in March 2025 Inflation and UK living standards For UK consumers, high inflation is one of the main drivers of the ongoing cost of living crisis. With wages struggling to keep up with the pace of inflation for a long period between 2021 and 2023, UK households saw their living standards fall significantly. In 2022/23, real household disposable income in the UK is estimated to have fallen by 2.1 percent, which was the biggest fall in living standards since 1956. While there have been some signals that the crisis eased somewhat in 2024, such as falling energy and food inflation, an increasing share of UK households have reported increasing living costs since Summer 2024. Additional inflation indicators Aside from the Retail Price Index, the UK also produces other inflation indices such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Consumer Price Index including owner occupiers' housing costs (CPIH). While these particular indices measure consumer price increases slightly differently, they both provide an overall picture of rising prices. More specific inflation rates, such as by sector, are also produced, while other indices omit certain items, such as core inflation, which excludes food and energy inflation, to provide a more stable measure of inflation.
In June 2025, the UK inflation rate for goods was 2.4 percent and 4.7 percent for services. Prices for goods accelerated significantly, sharply between 2021 and 2022, before falling in 2023. By comparison, prices for services initially grew at a more moderate rate but have also not fallen as quickly. The overall CPI inflation rate for the UK reached a recent high of 11.1 percent in October 2022 and remained in double figures until April 2023, when it fell to 8.7 percent. As of this month, the UK's inflation rate was 3.6 percent, up from 3.4 percent in the previous month. Sectors driving high inflation In late 2024, communication was the sector with the highest inflation rate, with prices increasing by 6.1 percent as of December 2024. During the recent period of high inflation that eased in 2023, food and energy prices were particular high, with housing and energy inflation far higher than in any other sector, peaking at 26.6 percent towards the end of 2022. High food and energy prices since 2021 have been one of the main causes of the cost of living crisis in the UK, especially for low-income households that spend a higher share of their income on these categories. This is likely one of the factors driving increasing food bank usage in the UK, which saw approximately 3.12 million people use a food bank in 2023/24, compared with 1.9 million just before the COVID-19 pandemic. The global inflation crisis The UK has not been alone in suffering rapid price increases since 2021. After the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, a series of economic and geopolitical shocks had a dramatic impact on the global economy. A global supply chain crisis failed to meet rising demand in 2021, leading to the beginning of an Inflation Crisis, which was only exacerbated by Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. The war directly influenced the prices of food and energy, as both countries were major exporters of important crops. European imports of hydrocarbons from Russia were also steadily reduced throughout 2022 and 2023, resulting in higher energy prices throughout the year.
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Inflation Rate in the United Kingdom increased to 3.60 percent in June from 3.40 percent in May of 2025. This dataset provides - United Kingdom Inflation Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.
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Price quote data (for locally collected data only) and consumption segment indices that underpin consumer price inflation statistics, giving users access to the detailed data that are used in the construction of the UK’s inflation figures. The data are being made available for research purposes only and are not an accredited official statistic. From October 2024, private school fees and part-time education classes have been included in the consumption segment indices file. For more information on the introduction of consumption segments, please see the Consumer Prices Indices Technical Manual, 2019. Note that this dataset was previously called the consumer price inflation item indices and price quotes dataset.
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Representative items within the Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers' housing costs, Consumer Prices Index and Retail Prices Index for the basket of goods and services.
In 2024, the annual inflation rate for the United Kingdom was 2.5 percent, with the average rate for 2025 predicted to rise to 3.2 percent, revised upwards from an earlier prediction of 2.6 percent. The UK has only recently recovered from a period of elevated inflation, which saw the CPI rate reach 9.1 percent in 2022, and 7.3 percent in 2023. Despite an uptick in inflation expected in 2025, the inflation rate is expected to fall to 2.1 percent in 2026, and two percent between 2027 and 2029. UK inflation crisis Between 2021 and 2023, inflation surged in the UK, reaching a 41-year-high of 11.1 percent in October 2022. Although inflation fell to more usual levels by 2024, prices in the UK had already increased by over 20 percent relative to the start of the crisis. The two main drivers of price increases during this time were food and energy inflation, two of the main spending areas of UK households. Although food and energy prices came down quite sharply in 2023, underlying core inflation, which measures prices rises without food and energy, remained slightly above the headline inflation rate throughout 2024, suggesting some aspects of inflation had become embedded in the UK economy. Inflation rises across in the world in 2022 The UK was not alone in suffering from runaway inflation over the last few years. From late 2021 onwards, various factors converged to encourage a global acceleration of prices, leading to the ongoing inflation crisis. Blocked-up supply chains were one of the main factors as the world emerged from the COVID-19 pandemic. This was followed by energy and food inflation skyrocketing after Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Central bank interest rates were raised globally in response to the problem, possibly putting an end to the era of cheap money that has defined monetary policy since the financial crash of 2008.
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Inflation Rate in Italy remained unchanged at 1.70 percent in July. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - Italy Inflation Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.
The UK inflation rate was 3.6 percent in June 2025, up from 3.4 percent in the previous month, and the fastest rate of inflation since January 2024. Between September 2022 and March 2023, the UK experienced seven months of double-digit inflation, which peaked at 11.1 percent in October 2022. Due to this long period of high inflation, UK consumer prices have increased by over 20 percent in the last three years. As of the most recent month, prices were rising fastest in the communications sector, at 6.1 percent, but were falling in both the furniture and transport sectors, at -0.3 percent and -0.6 percent, respectively.
The Cost of Living Crisis
High inflation is one of the main factors behind the ongoing Cost of Living Crisis in the UK, which, despite subsiding somewhat in 2024, is still impacting households going into 2025. In December 2024, for example, 56 percent of UK households reported their cost of living was increasing compared with the previous month, up from 45 percent in July, but far lower than at the height of the crisis in 2022. After global energy prices spiraled that year, the UK's energy price cap increased substantially. The cap, which limits what suppliers can charge consumers, reached 3,549 British pounds per year in October 2022, compared with 1,277 pounds a year earlier. Along with soaring food costs, high-energy bills have hit UK households hard, especially lower income ones that spend more of their earnings on housing costs. As a result of these factors, UK households experienced their biggest fall in living standards in decades in 2022/23.
Global inflation crisis causes rapid surge in prices
The UK's high inflation, and cost of living crisis in 2022 had its origins in the COVID-19 pandemic. Following the initial waves of the virus, global supply chains struggled to meet the renewed demand for goods and services. Food and energy prices, which were already high, increased further in 2022. Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 brought an end to the era of cheap gas flowing to European markets from Russia. The war also disrupted global food markets, as both Russia and Ukraine are major exporters of cereal crops. As a result of these factors, inflation surged across Europe and in other parts of the world, but typically declined in 2023, and approached more usual levels by 2024.
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Consumer Price Index CPI in India increased to 194.20 points in June from 193 points in May of 2025. This dataset provides - India Consumer Price Index (CPI) - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.
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The Regional Price Index contrasts the cost of a common basket of goods and services at a number of regional locations to the Perth metropolitan area. The RPIs were commissioned to assist with the calculation of the Western Australian State Government’s regional district allowance, and it has been used to assist in policy decision-making. Show full description
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The Prices Survey Microdata include the underlying price data used by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) to produce the Consumer Prices Index (CPI), the Retail Prices Index (RPI) and associated price indices. The CPI has become the main domestic measure of inflation for macroeconomic purposes in the UK. Since December 2003 it has been used for the inflation target that the Bank of England is required to achieve. The RPI is the most long-standing measure of inflation in the UK, and its uses have included the indexation of pensions, state benefits and index-linked gilts. The study also includes the data underlying the Producer Prices Index.
There are four levels of sampling for local price collection: locations/shopping areas; outlets/shops within locations; representative items/goods and services; and products and varieties (price quotes).
There are two basic price collection methods: local and central. Local collection is used for most items; prices are obtained from outlets in about 150 locations around the country. Some 110,000 quotations are obtained by this method. Normally, collectors must visit the outlet, but prices for some items may be collected by telephone. Central collection is used for items where all the prices can be collected centrally by the ONS with no field work. These prices can be further sub-divided into two categories, depending on their subsequent use: 1) central shops, where the prices are combined with prices obtained locally, and 2) central items, where the prices are used on their own to construct centrally calculated indices. There are about 130 items for which the prices are collected centrally.
The retail price data include the locations containing the shopping outlets from which the price quotes were obtained. These locations are intended to be broadly representative of a central shopping area and the areas where the local shopping population tend to live. The data also include the regions in which those shopping areas are located.
Linking to other business studies
The producer prices data contain Inter-Departmental Business Register (IDBR) reference numbers. These are anonymous but unique reference numbers assigned to business organisations. Their inclusion allows researchers to combine different business survey sources together. Researchers may consider applying for other business data to assist their research.
Latest edition information
For the thirty-fifth edition (May 2024), monthly Item Indices and Price Quotes data files for January to March 2024 have been added to the study.
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Inflation Rate in France remained unchanged at 1 percent in July. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - France Inflation Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.
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Inflation Rate in Spain increased to 2.70 percent in July from 2.30 percent in June of 2025. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - Spain Inflation Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.
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Inflation Rate in Netherlands decreased to 2.90 percent in July from 3.10 percent in June of 2025. This dataset provides - Netherlands Inflation Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.
As of April 2025, the inflation rate in the European Union was 2.4 percent, with prices rising fastest in Romania, which had an inflation rate of 4.9 percent. By contrast, both France and Cyprus saw low inflation rates during the same period, with France having the lowest inflation rate in the EU during this month. The rate of inflation in the EU in the October 2022 was higher than at any other time, with the peak prior to 2021 recorded in July 2008 when prices were growing by 4.4 percent year-on-year. Before the recent rises in inflation, price rises in the EU had been kept at relatively low levels, with the inflation rate remaining below three percent between January 2012 and August 2021. Rapid recovery and energy costs driving inflation The reopening of the European economy in 2021 following the sudden shock of COVID-19 in 2020 is behind many of the factors that have caused prices to rise so quickly in 2022. Global supply chains have not yet recovered from production issues, travel restrictions, and workforce problems brought about by the pandemic. Rising energy costs have only served to exacerbate supply problems, particularly with regard to the transport sector, which had the highest inflation rate of any sector in the EU in December 2021. High inflation rates mirrored in the U.S. The high inflation rates seen in Europe have been reflected in other parts of the world. In the United States, for example, the consumer price index reached a 40-year-high of seven percent in December 2021, influenced by many of the same factors driving European inflation. Nevertheless, it is hoped that once these supply chain issues ease, inflation levels will start to fall throughout the course of 2022.
Forecasts for the UK economy is a monthly comparison of independent forecasts.
Please note that this is a summary of published material reflecting the views of the forecasting organisations themselves and does not in any way provide new information on the Treasury’s own views. It contains only a selection of forecasters, which is subject to review.
No significance should be attached to the inclusion or exclusion of any particular forecasting organisation. HM Treasury accepts no responsibility for the accuracy of material published in this comparison.
This month’s edition of the forecast comparison contains short-term forecasts for 2024 and 2025, as well as medium-term forecasts from 2024 to 2028
In the three months to May 2025, average weekly earnings in the United Kingdom grew by five percent, while pay including bonuses also grew by five percent, when compared with the same period leading to April 2024. In the same month, the inflation rate for the Consumer Price Index was 3.4 percent, indicating that wages were rising faster than prices that month. Average salaries in the UK In 2024, the average salary for full-time workers in the UK was 37,430 British pounds a year, up from 34,963 in the previous year. In London, the average annual salary was far higher than the rest of the country, at 47,455 pounds per year, compared with just 32,960 in North East England. There also still exists a noticeable gender pay gap in the UK, which was seven percent for full-time workers in 2024, down from 7.5 percent in 2023. Lastly, the monthly earnings of the top one percent in the UK was 15,887 pounds as of November 2024, far higher than even that of the average for the top five percent, who earned 7,641 pounds per month, while pay for the lowest 10 percent of earners was just 805 pounds per month. Waves of industrial action in the UK One of the main consequences of high inflation and low wage growth throughout 2022 and 2023 was an increase in industrial action in the UK. In December 2022, for example, there were approximately 830,000 working days lost due to labor disputes. Throughout this month, workers across various industry sectors were involved in industrial disputes, such as nurses, train drivers, and driving instructors. Many of the workers who took part in strikes were part of the UK's public sector, which saw far weaker wage growth than that of the private sector throughout 2022. Widespread industrial action continued into 2023, with approximately 303,000 workers involved in industrial disputes in March 2023. There was far less industrial action by 2024, however, due to settlements in many of the disputes, although some are ongoing as of 2025.
Inflation is an important measure of any country’s economy, and the Retail Price Index (RPI) is one of the most widely used indicators in the United Kingdom, with the rate expected to be 4.1 percent in 2025, compared with 3.6 percent in 2024. This followed 2022, when RPI inflation reached a rate of 11.6 percent, by far the highest annual rate during this provided time period. CPI vs RPI Although the Retail Price Index is a commonly utilized inflation indicator, the UK also uses a newer method of calculating inflation, the Consumer Price Index. The CPI, along with the CPIH (Consumer Price Index including owner occupiers' housing costs) are usually preferred by the UK government, but the RPI is still used in certain instances. Increases in rail fares for example, are calculated using the RPI, while increases in pension payments are calculated using CPI, when this is used as the uprating factor. The use of one inflation measure over the other can therefore have a significant impact on people’s lives in the UK. High inflation falls to more typical levels by 2024 Like the Retail Price Index, the Consumer Price Index inflation rate also reached a recent peak in October 2022. In that month, prices were rising by 11.1 percent and did not fall below double figures until April 2023. This fall was largely due to slower price increases in key sectors such as energy, which drove a significant amount of the 2022 wave of inflation. Inflation nevertheless remains elevated, fueled not only by high food inflation, but also by underlying core inflation. As of February 2025, the overall CPI inflation rate was 2.8 percent, although an uptick in inflation is expected later in the year, with a rate of 3.7 percent forecast for the third quarter of the year.