Retail properties had the highest capitalization rates in the United States in 2023, followed by offices. The cap rate for office real estate was 6.54 percent in the fourth quarter of the year and was forecast to rise further to 7.39 percent in 2024. Cap rates measure the expected rate of return on investment, and show the net operating income of a property as a percentage share of the current asset value. While a higher cap rate indicates a higher rate of return, it also suggests a higher risk. Why have cap rates increased? The increase in cap rates is a consequence of a repricing in the commercial real estate sector. According to the National NCREIF Property Return Index, prices for commercial real estate declined across all property types in 2023. Rental growth was slow during the same period, resulting in a negative annual return. The increase in cap rates reflects the increased risk in the investment environment. Pricing uncertainty in the commercial real estate sector Between 2014 and 2021, commercial property prices in the U.S. enjoyed steady growth. Access to credit with low interest rates facilitated economic growth and real estate investment. As inflation surged in the following two years, lending policy tightened. That had a significant effect on the sector. First, it worsened sentiment among occupiers. Second, it led to a decline in demand for commercial spaces and commercial real estate investment volumes. Uncertainty about the future development of interest rates and occupier demand further contributed to the repricing of real estate assets.

Dollar stores with single tenant net leases in the United States had an average cap rate of 7.34 percent as of the fourth quarter of 2024. That made them the property type with the second-highest cap rate. Conversely, convenience stores had a cap rate of 5.5 percent, the lowest among the property types observed. Triple net leases (NNN) are single tenant leases, where in addition to rent and utilities, the tenant is responsible for the additional property expenses, including taxes, insurance, and maintenance. These leases are common for office, retail, industrial, and logistics properties.

The cap rate for industrial and logistics real estate in the United States grew in 2023, after hitting a record-low in 2023. In the fourth quarter of 2023, the cap rate was 5.35 percent and by the end of 2026, it was forecast to decline to 4.85 percent. Cap rates measure the expected rate of return on investment properties and are calculated by dividing the net operating income of the property by the current asset value. While a higher cap rate indicates a higher rate of return, it is also associated with higher risk, such as declining property values.

Commercial valuation data collected and maintained by the Cook County Assessor's Office, from 2021 to present. The office uses this data primarily for valuation and reporting. This dataset consolidates the individual Excel workbooks available on the Assessor's website into a single shared format. Properties are valued using similar valuation methods within each model group, per township, per year (in the year the township is reassessed). This dataset has been cleaned minimally, only enough to fit the source Excel workbooks together - because models are updated for each township in the year it is reassessed, users should expect inconsistencies within columns across time and townships. When working with Parcel Index Numbers (PINs) make sure to zero-pad them to 14 digits. Some datasets may lose leading zeros for PINs when downloaded. This data is property-level. Each 14-digit key PIN represents one commercial property. Commercial properties can and often do encompass multiple PINs. Additional notes: Current property class codes, their levels of assessment, and descriptions can be found on the Assessor's website. Note that class codes details can change across time. Data will be updated yearly, once the Assessor has finished mailing first pass values. If users need more up-to-date information they can access it through the Assessor's website. The Assessor's Office reassesses roughly one third of the county (a triad) each year. For commercial valuations, this means each year of data only contain the triad that was reassessed that year. Which triads and their constituent townships have been reassessed recently as well the year of their reassessment can be found in the Assessor's assessment calendar. One KeyPIN is one Commercial Entity. Each KeyPIN (entity) can be comprised of one single PIN (parcel), or multiple PINs as designated in the pins column. Additionally, each KeyPIN might have multiple rows if it is associated with different class codes or model groups. This can occur because many of Cook County's parcels have multiple class codes associated with them if they have multiple uses (such as residential and commercial). Users should not expect this data to be unique by any combination of available columns. Commercial properties are calculated by first determining a property’s use (office, retail, apartments, industrial, etc.), then the property is grouped with similar or like-kind property types. Next, income generated by the property such as rent or incidental income streams like parking or advertising signage is examined. Next, market-level vacancy based on location and property type is examined. In addition, new construction that has not yet been leased is also considered. Finally, expenses such as property taxes, insurance, repair and maintenance costs, property management fees, and service expenditures for professional services are examined. Once a snapshot of a property’s income statement is captured based on market data, a standard valuation metric called a “capitalization rate” to convert income to value is applied. This data was used to produce initial valuations mailed to property owners. It does not incorporate any subsequent changes to a property’s class, characteristics, valuation, or assessed value from appeals.Township codes can be found in the legend of this map. For more information on the sourcing of attached data and the preparation of this datase

Multifamily buildings had some of the lowest cap rates in Canada in the first quarter of 2023. For class A multifamily high rise buildings, investors could expect a capitalization rate of 4.04 percent, while for class AA downtown offices, the cap rate was 5.92 percent. The capitalization rate measures the rate of return on commercial properties and is calculated by dividing the net operating income of a property by its asset value. While a higher rate might promise higher return, it is also an indication of a riskier asset.

Cap rates in the U.S. multifamily real estate sector have increased significantly since 2021, reflecting a rise in borrowing costs. In 2023, the average multifamily cap rate was 5.96 percent, up 3.82 percent in 2021, when it was at its low. By 2026, the average multifamily cap rate is forecast to decline slightly, to 5.31 percent.

Vancouver had the lowest cap rate for industrial and logistics real estate across different Canadian markets in 2023. The capitalization rate measures the rate of return on commercial properties and is calculated by dividing the net operating income of a property by its asset value. While a higher rate might promise higher return, it is also an indication of a riskier asset. In the first quarter of the year, the average cap rate for class A and B industrial and logistics properties in Vancouver was 4.4 percent, while in Toronto, it stood at 5.06 percent.

According to a survey from 2024, grade A offices in Indian citiy Bengaluru had an average cap rate of 8.38 in core locations. In comparison, the cap rate of grade A offices in Taipei was 2.45 on average at core locations in 2024.

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Europe Commercial Real Estate Market Size 2025-2029

The europe commercial real estate market size is forecast to increase by USD 91.4 billion at a CAGR of 5.7% between 2024 and 2029.

The European commercial real estate market is experiencing significant growth, with increasing private investments fueling the expansion. This trend is driven by the region's robust economic conditions and the attractiveness of European markets to global investors. However, the market's growth trajectory is not without challenges. Rising interest rates pose a threat to potential investors, increasing the cost of borrowing and potentially reducing the appeal of commercial real estate investments. Additionally, regulatory hurdles and supply chain inconsistencies temper growth potential, necessitating careful planning and strategic navigation. Despite these challenges, opportunities abound for companies seeking to capitalize on the market's momentum. By staying informed of regulatory changes and supply chain developments, and maintaining a strong understanding of market trends, businesses can effectively navigate these challenges and seize growth opportunities in the European commercial real estate market.

What will be the size of the Europe Commercial Real Estate Market during the forecast period?

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In Europe's commercial real estate market, environmental impact assessments are increasingly important in property development, as sustainability becomes a key consideration. Real estate consulting firms provide valuable insights through property appraisals and predictive modeling, helping investors make informed decisions. Zoning regulations and planning permissions shape the landscape for asset management, while green certifications offer competitive advantages. Flexible workspaces, such as serviced and coworking spaces, are on the rise, catering to the changing needs of businesses. Energy audits and facility management ensure efficient operations, reducing costs and enhancing tenant satisfaction. Lease administration, tenant screening, and property valuations are essential components of effective asset management. Real estate analytics and property listings enable data-driven insights, driving transaction advisory services. Construction management and project management are crucial for delivering high-quality buildings, while virtual offices provide flexibility for remote teams. Property marketing and maintenance round out the essential services for successful real estate investments.

How is this market segmented?

The market research report provides comprehensive data (region-wise segment analysis), with forecasts and estimates in 'USD billion' for the period 2025-2029, as well as historical data from 2019-2023 for the following segments. TypeRentalLeaseSalesEnd-userOfficesRetailLeisureOthersEnd-UserCorporateInvestmentGovernmentLocationUrbanSuburbanGeographyEuropeFranceGermanyItalyUK

By Type Insights

The rental segment is estimated to witness significant growth during the forecast period.

Commercial real estate in Europe encompasses various sectors, including rental, office buildings, industrial properties, residential, and retail spaces. Debt financing plays a crucial role in the market, with mortgage lending and equity financing facilitating property transactions. Logistics facilities are in high demand due to the growth of e-commerce, necessitating infrastructure development and urban planning. ESG factors are increasingly influencing investment decisions, with a focus on energy efficiency, green building, and property technology. Building Information Modeling (BIM) and big data analytics are transforming property management and due diligence. Occupancy rates and rental yields remain essential indicators of market health, with vacancy rates impacting property values. Urban regeneration and mixed-use developments are shaping cityscapes, while market volatility and real estate cycles pose risks. Artificial intelligence, the Internet of Things, and smart building technologies are revolutionizing property management and investment strategies. Despite the robust leasing market and rising rents, investment markets exhibit caution due to economic uncertainties and finance rates. Office rental growth, particularly in the UK, Benelux markets, and peripheral Europe, accelerated in the third quarter of 2022, increasing annual growth to over 5%. However, buyers remain hesitant to pay earlier price levels, impacting capital markets and property values. Risk management and portfolio diversification are essential strategies for navigating these evolving trends.

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The Rental segment was valued at USD billion in 2019 and showed a gradual increase during the forecast period.

Market Dynamics

Our researchers analyzed the data with 2024 as the base year, along with the key drivers, trends, and challeng

Amid a worsening economic climate, the value of commercial real estate investment in the U.S. plummeted in 2023, with a mild increase in 2024. According to industry professionals, the biggest factors impacting the real estate industry in 2025 are the rising cost of finance, and declining capital availability. Development of commercial real estate cap rates in the U.S. Cap rates started to increase in 2022, reflecting a decline in property values. According to the forecast, cap rates for commercial real estate are expected to peak in 2024, followed by a steady decline. Cap rates measure the expected rate of return on investment properties and are calculated by dividing the net operating income of the property by the current asset value. While a higher cap rate indicates a higher rate of return, it is also associated with higher risk. Which property type has the best development prospects? In 2025, the development opportunities in the commercial real estate sector deemed the best for single-family real estate. Industrial and distribution real estate, including warehouses, factories, and big box distribution centers, was also ranked high.

Taipei, Tokyo, and Osaka were the markets with the lowest cap rates for logistics real estate among the Asia-Pacific (APAC) markets listed. Traditional logistics facilities in Taipei had a market cap of 4.15 percent in the first quarter of 2024, while the market capitalization of institutional grade logistics even lower, at 3.5 percent. The cap rate measures the rate of return on commercial properties and is calculated by dividing the net operating income of a property by its asset value. While a higher rate might promise higher return, it is also an indication of a riskier asset.

The Canadian office real estate market, currently valued at approximately $XX million (assuming a reasonable market size based on comparable markets and the provided CAGR), is experiencing robust growth, projected to maintain a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) exceeding 8% from 2025 to 2033. This expansion is driven by several key factors. Firstly, the flourishing technology sector in major cities like Toronto, Montreal, and Ottawa is fueling significant demand for modern office spaces. Secondly, increasing urbanization and population growth within these metropolitan areas are contributing to a tightening of the office supply, further pushing rental rates upward. Finally, ongoing investments in infrastructure and a generally positive economic outlook in Canada contribute to a favorable environment for real estate investment. Major players like JLL, Colliers, CBRE Canada, and Avison Young are actively shaping the market dynamics, with significant developments and acquisitions influencing market trends. However, the market is not without its challenges. Rising interest rates and economic uncertainty present potential headwinds, impacting investment decisions and potentially slowing down growth in the short term. Furthermore, the increasing adoption of hybrid work models by many companies could lead to a decrease in overall demand for traditional office spaces, though the extent of this impact remains to be seen. The market's resilience will depend on the ability of developers and landlords to adapt to these evolving workplace trends, embracing flexible lease terms and innovative building designs to attract and retain tenants. The segmentation of the market by major cities highlights the regional variations in growth, with Toronto likely remaining a dominant force due to its established financial and technological hubs. A comprehensive understanding of these dynamic factors is crucial for investors and stakeholders navigating this evolving landscape. Recent developments include: April 2022: Canadian Net Real Estate Investment Trust announced the purchase of four properties in Quebec and Nova Scotia. With transaction fees excluded, the total consideration paid was USD 18, 800,000, which was paid in cash. The purchase price reflects a capitalization rate for the portfolio of about 6.5%., February 2022: The first acquisition for Crown Realty Partners' value-add fund, Crown Realty V Limited Partnership, has been finished. The Park of Commerce property is a group of four office buildings situated along the Queensway Corridor in the Greater Ottawa Area. This purchase is a crucial milestone for their Fund as they optimize sustainability objectives and economic return targets as part of their value enhancement plan.. Notable trends are: Office spaces in Toronto and Vancouver are increasing.

In 2023, the return of the national NCREIF Property Index in the United States declined for the first time since 2009. The annualized total return of the index plummeted in 2023, followed by a slight increase in 2024. Just three years ago, in 2021, the rate of return of the index hit 17.7 percent. The NCREIF Property Index reflects the change in prices of commercial real estate for investment purposes in the United States. Property types with the highest cap rates Cap rates, which measure the expected return rate of a real estate asset, were the highest for retail properties in 2023. While a higher cap rate indicates a higher rate of return, it is also associated with higher risk: The multifamily sector, which has enjoyed steady and robust growth in recent years, had the lowest cap rate of all commercial property types. Commercial property area with the best development prospects In 2025, the real estate development opportunities for single-family housing were deemed to be the best when compared with other types of commercial property. Industrial real estate includes warehouses, factories, and big box distribution centers.

Prime yields increased for all property types in the commercial real estate sector in Germany between 2021 and 2023. Multifamily housing had the lowest yield as of the third quarter of 2023, at 3.6 percent. Conversely, and the highest for shopping centers, amounting to 5.5 percent.

As of March 2025, data centers in Gurgaon, India, had a median cap rate of about ***** percent. In comparison, the cap rate of data centers in Tokyo, Japan, was around *** percent as of March 2025.

According to a survey from 2024, shopping malls in Indian city Guragon had an average cap rate of 8.25 in core locations. In comparison, the average cap rate of shopping malls in Taipei was around 3.13 in March 2024.

As of March 2025, shopping malls in core locations in Wellington, New Zealand, had a median cap rate of around ****. In comparison, the median cap rate of shopping malls in core location in Tokyo, Japan, was around *** as of March 2025.

As of March 2025, grade A offices in core locations in Bengaluru, India, had a median cap rate of around 8.1 percent. In comparison, the median cap rate of grade A offices in core locations in Taipei, Taiwan, was around 2.5 percent as of March 2025.

The prime yields in the UK expanded across most property types in 2024, compared to the previous two years. Yields were the lowest in the London West End offices market at four percent. In contrast, shopping center yields stood at eight percent. Yield is an indicator for the expected return of a property investment and is calculated as the ratio of rental income and the property value. Several factors can drive yields - increased demand could raise property values, causing lower yields, while a fall in demand could create the opposite effect. Which is the largest commercial real estate sector in the UK? Office real estate has traditionally accounted for the lion’s share of the commercial property investment market, but since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, investors’ interest has shifted towards industrial real estate. With the e-commerce sector growing and supply chain management becoming more important than ever, so has the industrial and logistic sector. This increase in importance is also reflected in the occupiers market, with the annual take-up exceeding the ten-year average for three years in a row. How is the commercial property market expected to develop in the coming years? The industrial and logistic property market is forecast to outperform retail and offices in terms of capital value growth in the period between 2024 and 2028. According to the same forecast, rental growth is expected to turn positive for all property types in 2024, except for shopping centers.

U.S. REITs in the FTSE Nareit All Equity REITs index yielded between two and 16 percent dividend depending on the property type as of November 2023. Home financing REITs had the highest yield of 16.04 percent, compared to 4.59 percent for all equity REITs. The FTSE Nareit All Equity REITs index is a free-float adjusted, market capitalization-weighted index of equity REITs in the U.S. In 2023, the it included were 141 constituents, with more than 50 percent of total assets in qualifying real estate assets other than mortgages secured by real property. The number of REITs has remained fairly constant in recent years, but the market cap has decreased in 2022..