As of 2023, the bulk of the Chinese population was aged between 25 and 59 years, amounting to around half of the population. A breakdown of the population by broad age groups reveals that around 61.3 percent of the total population was in working age between 16 and 59 years in 2023. Age cohorts below 25 years were considerably smaller, although there was a slight growth trend in recent years. Population development in China Population development in China over the past decades has been strongly influenced by political and economic factors. After a time of high fertility rates during the Maoist regime, China introduced birth-control measures in the 1970s, including the so-called one-child policy. The fertility rate dropped accordingly from around six children per woman in the 1960s to below two at the end of the 20th century. At the same time, life expectancy increased consistently. In the face of a rapidly aging society, the government gradually lifted the one-child policy after 2012, finally arriving at a three-child policy in 2021. However, like in most other developed countries nowadays, people in China are reluctant to have more than one or two children due to high costs of living and education, as well as changed social norms and private values. China’s top-heavy age pyramid The above-mentioned developments are clearly reflected in the Chinese age pyramid. The age cohorts between 30 and 39 years are the last two larger age cohorts. The cohorts between 15 and 24, which now enter childbearing age, are decisively smaller, which will have a negative effect on the number of births in the coming decade. When looking at a gender distribution of the population pyramid, a considerable gender gap among the younger age cohorts becomes visible, leaving even less room for growth in birth figures.
According to the age distribution of China's population in 2024, approximately 68.6 percent of the population were in their working age between 15 and 64 years of age. Retirees aged 65 years and above made up about 15.6 percent of the total population. Age distribution in China As can be seen from this statistic, the age pyramid in China has been gradually shifting towards older demographics during the past decade. Mainly due to low birth rates in China, the age group of 0 to 14 year-olds has remained at around 16 to 17 percent since 2010, whereas the age groups 65 years and over have seen growth of nearly seven percentage points. Thus, the median age of the Chinese population has been constantly rising since 1970 and is forecast to reach 52 years by 2050. Accompanied by a slightly growing mortality rate of more than 7 per thousand, China is showing strong signs of an aging population. China's aging society The impact of this severe change in demographics is the subject of an ongoing scientific discussion. Rising standards of living in China contain the demand for better health care and pension insurance for retirees, which will be hard to meet with the social insurance system in China still being in its infancy. Per capita expenditure on medical care and services of urban households has grown more than ninefold since 2000 with a clear and distinctive upward trend for the near future. As for social security spending, public pension expenditure is forecast to take up approximately nine percent of China's GDP by 2050.
In 2024, approximately 965.65 million people in China were of working age between 15 and 64 years. This was equal to a 68.3 percent share of the total population. Age groups between 30 and 59 years represented the largest age cohorts in the Chinese population pyramid. Age demographics in China The change in China’s age distribution over time displayed in the given statistic illustrates the unfolding of an aging population. As the fertility rate in China declined and life expectancy increased, the only age groups that have been growing over the last three decades were those of old people. In contrast, the number of children decreased gradually between 1995 and 2010 and remained comparatively low thereafter. According to the data provided by the National Bureau of Statistics of China, which has not been revised for years before the 2020 census, the size of the working age population declined in 2014 for the first time and entered a downward trajectory thereafter. This development has extended itself into the total population, which has shrunk in 2022 for the first time in decades. Future age development As the fertility rate in China is expected to remain below the reproductive level, the Chinese society will very likely age rapidly. According to UN data, which is based on figures slightly different from the Chinese official numbers, the share of the population above 60 years of age is projected to reach nearly 40 percent in 2050, while the share of children is expected to remain stable. This will lead to an increased burden of the old-age population on the social security system, illustrated by an old-age dependency ratio peaking at nearly 106 percent in 2090. This means that by then, ten working-age adults would have to support nine elderly people.
According to latest figures, the Chinese population decreased by 1.39 million to around 1.408 billion people in 2024. After decades of rapid growth, China arrived at the turning point of its demographic development in 2022, which was earlier than expected. The annual population decrease is estimated to remain at moderate levels until around 2030 but to accelerate thereafter. Population development in China China had for a long time been the country with the largest population worldwide, but according to UN estimates, it has been overtaken by India in 2023. As the population in India is still growing, the country is very likely to remain being home of the largest population on earth in the near future. Due to several mechanisms put into place by the Chinese government as well as changing circumstances in the working and social environment of the Chinese people, population growth has subsided over the past decades, displaying an annual population growth rate of -0.1 percent in 2024. Nevertheless, compared to the world population in total, China held a share of about 17 percent of the overall global population in 2024. China's aging population In terms of demographic developments, the birth control efforts of the Chinese government had considerable effects on the demographic pyramid in China. Upon closer examination of the age distribution, a clear trend of an aging population becomes visible. In order to curb the negative effects of an aging population, the Chinese government abolished the one-child policy in 2015, which had been in effect since 1979, and introduced a three-child policy in May 2021. However, many Chinese parents nowadays are reluctant to have a second or third child, as is the case in most of the developed countries in the world. The number of births in China varied in the years following the abolishment of the one-child policy, but did not increase considerably. Among the reasons most prominent for parents not having more children are the rising living costs and costs for child care, growing work pressure, a growing trend towards self-realization and individualism, and changing social behaviors.
As of 2023, about 10.1 percent of the population in Beijing was between 30 and 34 years of age, whereas only 1.6 percent were aged 85 and above. Beijing is the capital city of China and after Shanghai, the second largest city in the country. Beijing’s age distribution A broad age distribution of Beijing’s inhabitants reveals that a comparatively large share of the total population is of working age, while few children live in the city. This gap becomes even more obvious when looking at the age distribution by five-year groups: While the age cohorts between 25 and 39 accounts for 28 percent of the population, the age group between 0 and 19 accounts for only 14.6 percent. Two main reasons are responsible for this gap: On the one hand, many young people in their early working years move to the city and search for job opportunities; on the other hand, the motivation for having children in the city is low, mostly due to economic reasons. Many migrant workers from outside the city even leave their children behind when searching for better jobs in the city. Not only is the national average age distribution more balanced in this regard, but also that of many other larger cities. Prospects for the future In recent years, Beijing’s municipal government was determined to limit population inflow into the city. At the same time, former national measures of birth control were gradually relaxed and restrictions for migrants to take their children with them were partially lifted, which already had a positive effect on the number of children in the youngest age cohorts. However, given the very high costs of living in Beijing and its low attractiveness to family-oriented people, it is very likely that the average age of the population will increase quickly, leading to all the challenges and opportunities of a rapidly aging society.
In 2024, the share of the population in Taiwan aged 65 and older accounted for approximately 19.2 percent of the total population. While the share of old people on the island increased gradually over recent years, the percentage of the working-age population and the children have both declined. Taiwan’s aging population With one of the lowest fertility rates in the world and a steadily growing life expectancy, the average age of Taiwan’s population is increasing quickly, and the share of people aged 65 and above is expected to reach around 38.4 percent of the total population in 2050. This development is also reflected in Taiwan’s population pyramid, which shows that the size of the youngest age group is only half of the size of age groups between 40 and 60 years. The rapid aging of the populations puts a heavy burden on the social insurance system. Old-age dependency is expected to reach more than 70 percent by 2050, meaning that by then three people of working age will have to support two elders, compared to only one elder supported by four working people today. Aging societies in East Asia Today, many countries in East Asia have very low fertility rates and face the challenges of aging societies. This is especially true among those countries that experienced high economic growth in the past, which often resulted in quickly receding birth rates. Japan was one of the first East Asian countries witnessing this demographic change, as is reflected in its high median age. South Korea had the lowest fertility rate of all Asian countries in recent years, and with China, one of the largest populations on earth joined the ranks of quickly aging societies.
In the world's most populous country, life expectancy has been continuously rising over the last decades, benefitting greatly from China's economic ascendance. In 2022, average life expectancy at birth in China reached about 78.6 years. Life expectancy at birth Life expectancy at birth refers to the average number of years a group of people born in the same year would live, assuming constant mortality rates. San Marino and Monaco had the highest life expectancy at birth, while China had reached a life expectancy above global average. People who were born in San Marino or Monaco in 2023 had a life expectancy of approximately 87 years or 86 years on average respectively. Demographic development in China Whereas average life expectancy at birth has been growing steadily, birth rates in China have been experiencing a slowdown. In 2024, about 6.77 babies had been born per 1,000 women in China, the second lowest point in the recent decade. As a result of low fertility rates and the extended life expectancy in China, the share of elderly people had been rising rapidly. The number of Chinese population aged 60 and older had more than doubled over the past three decades and is projected to reach its peak at 504 million in 2050. People aged 60 and older have been estimated to account for approximately one fourth of China’s total population by 2030, indicating a sharp climb from just around 13 percent in 2010. In order to pinpoint this massive shift in the age pyramid of China, an important indicator for measuring the pressure of aging population on productive population may be consulted. The old-age dependency ratio in China was expected to reach 52.3 percent in 2050.
In 2023, approximately 4.8 marriages per 1,000 inhabitants were registered in China. The marriage rate increased from around six in 2002 to nearly ten in 2013 and declined again thereafter. Marriages in China The peak of the marriage rate in 2013 and the corresponding wave in the number of marriages is strongly related to a larger size of age cohorts between 20 and 35 during that time which is reflected in China’s age pyramid. However, marriage habits have also changed significantly over the last two decades. While the share of people that do not get married is generally increasing, there is a strong shift towards later marriage, with the share of people aged 30 or above that get married increasing from 18.7 percent in 2005 to 47.6 percent in 2022. At the same time, both the number of divorces as well as the number of remarriages also increased. Current developments The COVID-19 pandemic had a significant effect on the divorce rate in China, which fell by more than one third between 2019 and 2021. However, the effect on marriages was comparatively small. As larger age cohorts are now entering marriage age, the number of marriages might increase again in the upcoming years. However, the general change of marriage habits mentioned above will most likely go on in the future.
In 1800, the population of Japan was just over 30 million, a figure which would grow by just two million in the first half of the 19th century. However, with the fall of the Tokugawa shogunate and the restoration of the emperor in the Meiji Restoration of 1868, Japan would begin transforming from an isolated feudal island, to a modernized empire built on Western models. The Meiji period would see a rapid rise in the population of Japan, as industrialization and advancements in healthcare lead to a significant reduction in child mortality rates, while the creation overseas colonies would lead to a strong economic boom. However, this growth would slow beginning in 1937, as Japan entered a prolonged war with the Republic of China, which later grew into a major theater of the Second World War. The war was eventually brought to Japan's home front, with the escalation of Allied air raids on Japanese urban centers from 1944 onwards (Tokyo was the most-bombed city of the Second World War). By the war's end in 1945 and the subsequent occupation of the island by the Allied military, Japan had suffered over two and a half million military fatalities, and over one million civilian deaths.
The population figures of Japan were quick to recover, as the post-war “economic miracle” would see an unprecedented expansion of the Japanese economy, and would lead to the country becoming one of the first fully industrialized nations in East Asia. As living standards rose, the population of Japan would increase from 77 million in 1945, to over 127 million by the end of the century. However, growth would begin to slow in the late 1980s, as birth rates and migration rates fell, and Japan eventually grew to have one of the oldest populations in the world. The population would peak in 2008 at just over 128 million, but has consistently fallen each year since then, as the fertility rate of the country remains below replacement level (despite government initiatives to counter this) and the country's immigrant population remains relatively stable. The population of Japan is expected to continue its decline in the coming years, and in 2020, it is estimated that approximately 126 million people inhabit the island country.
This statistic depicts the age distribution of India from 2013 to 2023. In 2023, about 25.06 percent of the Indian population fell into the 0-14 year category, 68.02 percent into the 15-64 age group and 6.92 percent were over 65 years of age. Age distribution in India India is one of the largest countries in the world and its population is constantly increasing. India’s society is categorized into a hierarchically organized caste system, encompassing certain rights and values for each caste. Indians are born into a caste, and those belonging to a lower echelon often face discrimination and hardship. The median age (which means that one half of the population is younger and the other one is older) of India’s population has been increasing constantly after a slump in the 1970s, and is expected to increase further over the next few years. However, in international comparison, it is fairly low; in other countries the average inhabitant is about 20 years older. But India seems to be on the rise, not only is it a member of the BRIC states – an association of emerging economies, the other members being Brazil, Russia and China –, life expectancy of Indians has also increased significantly over the past decade, which is an indicator of access to better health care and nutrition. Gender equality is still non-existant in India, even though most Indians believe that the quality of life is about equal for men and women in their country. India is patriarchal and women still often face forced marriages, domestic violence, dowry killings or rape. As of late, India has come to be considered one of the least safe places for women worldwide. Additionally, infanticide and selective abortion of female fetuses attribute to the inequality of women in India. It is believed that this has led to the fact that the vast majority of Indian children aged 0 to 6 years are male.
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As of 2023, the bulk of the Chinese population was aged between 25 and 59 years, amounting to around half of the population. A breakdown of the population by broad age groups reveals that around 61.3 percent of the total population was in working age between 16 and 59 years in 2023. Age cohorts below 25 years were considerably smaller, although there was a slight growth trend in recent years. Population development in China Population development in China over the past decades has been strongly influenced by political and economic factors. After a time of high fertility rates during the Maoist regime, China introduced birth-control measures in the 1970s, including the so-called one-child policy. The fertility rate dropped accordingly from around six children per woman in the 1960s to below two at the end of the 20th century. At the same time, life expectancy increased consistently. In the face of a rapidly aging society, the government gradually lifted the one-child policy after 2012, finally arriving at a three-child policy in 2021. However, like in most other developed countries nowadays, people in China are reluctant to have more than one or two children due to high costs of living and education, as well as changed social norms and private values. China’s top-heavy age pyramid The above-mentioned developments are clearly reflected in the Chinese age pyramid. The age cohorts between 30 and 39 years are the last two larger age cohorts. The cohorts between 15 and 24, which now enter childbearing age, are decisively smaller, which will have a negative effect on the number of births in the coming decade. When looking at a gender distribution of the population pyramid, a considerable gender gap among the younger age cohorts becomes visible, leaving even less room for growth in birth figures.