Graph and download economic data for Government current expenditures: Economic affairs: Space (G160241A027NBEA) from 1959 to 2023 about outer space, economic affairs, expenditures, government, GDP, and USA.

In 2024, the U.S. GDP increased from the previous year to about 29.18 trillion U.S. dollars. Gross domestic product (GDP) refers to the market value of all goods and services produced within a country. In 2024, the United States has the largest economy in the world. What is GDP? Gross domestic product is one of the most important indicators used to analyze the health of an economy. GDP is defined by the BEA as the market value of goods and services produced by labor and property in the United States, regardless of nationality. It is the primary measure of U.S. production. The OECD defines GDP as an aggregate measure of production equal to the sum of the gross values added of all resident, institutional units engaged in production (plus any taxes, and minus any subsidies, on products not included in the value of their outputs). GDP and national debt Although the United States had the highest Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the world in 2022, this does not tell us much about the quality of life in any given country. GDP per capita at purchasing power parity (PPP) is an economic measurement that is thought to be a better method for comparing living standards across countries because it accounts for domestic inflation and variations in the cost of living. While the United States might have the largest economy, the country that ranked highest in terms of GDP at PPP was Luxembourg, amounting to around 141,333 international dollars per capita. Singapore, Ireland, and Qatar also ranked highly on the GDP PPP list, and the United States ranked 9th in 2022.

Techsalerator’s News Event Data in North America offers a comprehensive and detailed dataset designed to provide businesses, analysts, journalists, and researchers with a thorough view of significant news events across North America. This dataset captures and categorizes major events reported from a diverse range of news sources, including press releases, industry news sites, blogs, and PR platforms, providing valuable insights into regional developments, economic shifts, political changes, and cultural events.

Key Features of the Dataset: Extensive Coverage:

The dataset aggregates news events from a wide array of sources, including company press releases, industry-specific news outlets, blogs, PR sites, and traditional media. This broad coverage ensures a diverse range of information from multiple reporting channels. Categorization of Events:

News events are categorized into various types such as business and economic updates, political developments, technological advancements, legal and regulatory changes, and cultural events. This categorization helps users quickly find and analyze information relevant to their interests or sectors. Real-Time Updates:

The dataset is updated regularly to include the most current events, ensuring that users have access to up-to-date news and can stay informed about recent developments as they happen. Geographic Segmentation:

Events are tagged with their respective countries and territories within North America. This geographic segmentation allows users to filter and analyze news events based on specific locations, facilitating targeted research and analysis. Event Details:

Each event entry includes comprehensive details such as the date of occurrence, source of the news, a description of the event, and relevant keywords. This thorough detailing helps users understand the context and significance of each event. Historical Data:

The dataset includes historical news event data, enabling users to track trends and conduct comparative analysis over time. This feature supports longitudinal studies and provides insights into how news events evolve. Advanced Search and Filter Options:

Users can search and filter news events based on criteria such as date range, event type, location, and keywords. This functionality allows for precise and efficient retrieval of relevant information. North American Countries and Territories Covered: Countries: Canada Mexico United States Territories: American Samoa (U.S. territory) French Polynesia (French overseas collectivity; included for regional relevance) Guam (U.S. territory) New Caledonia (French special collectivity; included for regional relevance) Northern Mariana Islands (U.S. territory) Puerto Rico (U.S. territory) Saint Pierre and Miquelon (French overseas territory; geographically close to North America and included for regional comprehensiveness) Wallis and Futuna (French overseas collectivity; included for regional relevance) Benefits of the Dataset: Strategic Insights: Businesses and analysts can use the dataset to gain insights into significant regional developments, economic conditions, and political changes, aiding in strategic decision-making and market analysis. Market and Industry Trends: The dataset provides valuable information on industry-specific trends and events, helping users understand market dynamics and identify emerging opportunities. Media and PR Monitoring: Journalists and PR professionals can track relevant news across North America, enabling them to monitor media coverage, identify emerging stories, and manage public relations efforts effectively. Academic and Research Use: Researchers can utilize the dataset for longitudinal studies, trend analysis, and academic research on various topics related to North American news and events. Techsalerator’s News Event Data in North America is a crucial resource for accessing and analyzing significant news events across the continent. By providing detailed, categorized, and up-to-date information, it supports effective decision-making, research, and media monitoring across diverse sectors.

This 6MB download is a zip file containing 5 pdf documents and 2 xlsx spreadsheets. Presentation on COVID-19 and the potential impacts on employment

May 2020Waka Kotahi wants to better understand the potential implications of the COVID-19 downturn on the land transport system, particularly the potential impacts on regional economies and communities.

To do this, in May 2020 Waka Kotahi commissioned Martin Jenkins and Infometrics to consider the potential impacts of COVID-19 on New Zealand’s economy and demographics, as these are two key drivers of transport demand. In addition to providing a scan of national and international COVID-19 trends, the research involved modelling the economic impacts of three of the Treasury’s COVID-19 scenarios, to a regional scale, to help us understand where the impacts might be greatest.

Waka Kotahi studied this modelling by comparing the percentage difference in employment forecasts from the Treasury’s three COVID-19 scenarios compared to the business as usual scenario.

The source tables from the modelling (Tables 1-40), and the percentage difference in employment forecasts (Tables 41-43), are available as spreadsheets.

Arataki - potential impacts of COVID-19 Final Report

Employment modelling - interactive dashboard

The modelling produced employment forecasts for each region and district over three time periods – 2021, 2025 and 2031. In May 2020, the forecasts for 2021 carried greater certainty as they reflected the impacts of current events, such as border restrictions, reduction in international visitors and students etc. The 2025 and 2031 forecasts were less certain because of the potential for significant shifts in the socio-economic situation over the intervening years. While these later forecasts were useful in helping to understand the relative scale and duration of potential COVID-19 related impacts around the country, they needed to be treated with care recognising the higher levels of uncertainty.

The May 2020 research suggested that the ‘slow recovery scenario’ (Treasury’s scenario 5) was the most likely due to continuing high levels of uncertainty regarding global efforts to manage the pandemic (and the duration and scale of the resulting economic downturn).

The updates to Arataki V2 were framed around the ‘Slower Recovery Scenario’, as that scenario remained the most closely aligned with the unfolding impacts of COVID-19 in New Zealand and globally at that time.

Find out more about Arataki, our 10-year plan for the land transport system

May 2021The May 2021 update to employment modelling used to inform Arataki Version 2 is now available. Employment modelling dashboard - updated 2021Arataki used the May 2020 information to compare how various regions and industries might be impacted by COVID-19. Almost a year later, it is clear that New Zealand fared better than forecast in May 2020.Waka Kotahi therefore commissioned an update to the projections through a high-level review of:the original projections for 2020/21 against performancethe implications of the most recent global (eg International monetary fund world economic Outlook) and national economic forecasts (eg Treasury half year economic and fiscal update)The treasury updated its scenarios in its December half year fiscal and economic update (HYEFU) and these new scenarios have been used for the revised projections.Considerable uncertainty remains about the potential scale and duration of the COVID-19 downturn, for example with regards to the duration of border restrictions, update of immunisation programmes. The updated analysis provides us with additional information regarding which sectors and parts of the country are likely to be most impacted. We continue to monitor the situation and keep up to date with other cross-Government scenario development and COVID-19 related work. The updated modelling has produced employment forecasts for each region and district over three time periods - 2022, 2025, 2031.The 2022 forecasts carry greater certainty as they reflect the impacts of current events. The 2025 and 2031 forecasts are less certain because of the potential for significant shifts over that time.

Data reuse caveats: as per license.

Additionally, please read / use this data in conjunction with the Infometrics and Martin Jenkins reports, to understand the uncertainties and assumptions involved in modelling the potential impacts of COVID-19.

COVID-19’s effect on industry and regional economic outcomes for NZ Transport Agency [PDF 620 KB]

Data quality statement: while the modelling undertaken is high quality, it represents two point-in-time analyses undertaken during a period of considerable uncertainty. This uncertainty comes from several factors relating to the COVID-19 pandemic, including:

a lack of clarity about the size of the global downturn and how quickly the international economy might recover differing views about the ability of the New Zealand economy to bounce back from the significant job losses that are occurring and how much of a structural change in the economy is required the possibility of a further wave of COVID-19 cases within New Zealand that might require a return to Alert Levels 3 or 4.

While high levels of uncertainty remain around the scale of impacts from the pandemic, particularly in coming years, the modelling is useful in indicating the direction of travel and the relative scale of impacts in different parts of the country.

Data quality caveats: as noted above, there is considerable uncertainty about the potential scale and duration of the COVID-19 downturn. Please treat the specific results of the modelling carefully, particularly in the forecasts to later years (2025, 2031), given the potential for significant shifts in New Zealand's socio-economic situation before then.

As such, please use the modelling results as a guide to the potential scale of the impacts of the downturn in different locations, rather than as a precise assessment of impacts over the coming decade.

The Long Depression was, by a large margin, the longest-lasting recession in U.S. history. It began in the U.S. with the Panic of 1873, and lasted for over five years. This depression was the largest in a series of recessions at the turn of the 20th century, which proved to be a period of overall stagnation as the U.S. financial markets failed to keep pace with industrialization and changes in monetary policy. Great Depression The Great Depression, however, is widely considered to have been the most severe recession in U.S. history. Following the Wall Street Crash in 1929, the country's economy collapsed, wages fell and a quarter of the workforce was unemployed. It would take almost four years for recovery to begin. Additionally, U.S. expansion and integration in international markets allowed the depression to become a global event, which became a major catalyst in the build up to the Second World War. Decreasing severity When comparing recessions before and after the Great Depression, they have generally become shorter and less frequent over time. Only three recessions in the latter period have lasted more than one year. Additionally, while there were 12 recessions between 1880 and 1920, there were only six recessions between 1980 and 2020. The most severe recession in recent years was the financial crisis of 2007 (known as the Great Recession), where irresponsible lending policies and lack of government regulation allowed for a property bubble to develop and become detached from the economy over time, this eventually became untenable and the bubble burst. Although the causes of both the Great Depression and Great Recession were similar in many aspects, economists have been able to use historical evidence to try and predict, prevent, or limit the impact of future recessions.

In January 2025, prices had increased by three percent compared to January 2024 according to the 12-month percentage change in the consumer price index — the monthly inflation rate for goods and services in the United States. The data represents U.S. city averages. In economics, the inflation rate is a measure of the change in price level over time. The rate of decrease in the purchasing power of money is approximately equal. A projection of the annual U.S. inflation rate can be accessed here and the actual annual inflation rate since 1990 can be accessed here. InflationOne of the most important economic indicators is the development of the Consumer Price Index in a country. The change in this price level of goods and services is defined as the rate of inflation. The inflationary situation in the United States had been relatively severe in 2022 due to global events relating to COVID-19, supply chain restrains, and the Russian invasion of Ukraine. More information on U.S. inflation may be found on our dedicated topic page. The annual inflation rate in the United States has increased from 3.2 percent in 2011 to 8.3 percent in 2022. This means that the purchasing power of the U.S. dollar has weakened in recent years. The purchasing power is the extent to which a person has available funds to make purchases. According to the data published by the International Monetary Fund, the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) was about 258.84 in 2020 and is forecasted to grow up to 325.6 by 2027, compared to the base period from 1982 to 1984. The monthly percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for urban consumers in the United States was 0.1 percent in March 2023 compared to the previous month. In 2022, countries all around the world are experienced high levels of inflation. Although Brazil already had an inflation rate of 8.3 percent in 2021, compared to the previous year, while the inflation rate in China stood at 0.85 percent.

Economic Optimism Index in the United States decreased to 48.60 points in July from 49.20 points in June of 2025. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - United States IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

Techsalerator’s News Event Data in Oceania provides a thorough and detailed dataset designed to offer businesses, analysts, journalists, and researchers with comprehensive insights into significant news events across the Oceania region. This dataset captures and categorizes major events reported from a variety of news sources, including press releases, industry news sites, blogs, and PR platforms, offering valuable perspectives on regional developments, economic shifts, political changes, and cultural occurrences.

Key Features of the Dataset: Extensive Coverage:

The dataset aggregates news events from a wide range of sources such as company press releases, industry-specific news outlets, blogs, PR sites, and traditional media. This broad coverage ensures a diverse array of information from multiple reporting channels. Categorization of Events:

News events are categorized into various types including business and economic updates, political developments, technological advancements, legal and regulatory changes, and cultural events. This categorization helps users quickly find and analyze information relevant to their interests or sectors. Real-Time Updates:

The dataset is updated regularly to include the latest events, ensuring users have access to the most current news and can stay informed about recent developments as they occur. Geographic Segmentation:

Events are tagged with their respective countries and territories within Oceania. This geographic segmentation allows users to filter and analyze news events based on specific locations, facilitating targeted research and analysis. Event Details:

Each event entry includes comprehensive details such as the date of occurrence, source of the news, a description of the event, and relevant keywords. This thorough detailing helps users understand the context and significance of each event. Historical Data:

The dataset includes historical news event data, enabling users to track trends and perform comparative analysis over time. This feature supports longitudinal studies and provides insights into the evolution of news events. Advanced Search and Filter Options:

Users can search and filter news events based on various criteria such as date range, event type, location, and keywords. This functionality allows for precise and efficient retrieval of relevant information. Oceania Countries and Territories Covered: Australia and New Zealand: Australia New Zealand Pacific Island Countries and Territories: Fiji Kiribati Marshall Islands Micronesia (Federated States of) Nauru Palau Papua New Guinea Samoa Solomon Islands Tonga Tuvalu Vanuatu French Overseas Territories: New Caledonia (French special collectivity) French Polynesia (French overseas collectivity) Wallis and Futuna (French overseas collectivity) U.S. Territories: American Samoa (U.S. territory) Guam (U.S. territory) Northern Mariana Islands (U.S. territory) Benefits of the Dataset: Strategic Insights: Businesses and analysts can utilize the dataset to gain insights into significant regional developments, economic conditions, and political changes, aiding in strategic decision-making and market analysis. Market and Industry Trends: The dataset provides valuable information on industry-specific trends and events, helping users understand market dynamics and identify emerging opportunities. Media and PR Monitoring: Journalists and PR professionals can track relevant news across Oceania, enabling them to monitor media coverage, identify emerging stories, and manage public relations efforts effectively. Academic and Research Use: Researchers can leverage the dataset for longitudinal studies, trend analysis, and academic research on various topics related to Oceania’s news and events. Techsalerator’s News Event Data in Oceania is an essential resource for accessing and analyzing significant news events across the region. By offering detailed, categorized, and up-to-date information, it supports effective decision-making, research, and media monitoring across diverse sectors.

As of the third quarter of 2024, the GDP of the U.S. grew by 2.8 percent from the second quarter of 2024. GDP, or gross domestic product, is effectively a count of the total goods and services produced in a country over a certain period of time. It is calculated by first adding together a country’s total consumer spending, government spending, investments and exports; and then deducting the country’s imports. The values in this statistic are the change in ‘constant price’ or ‘real’ GDP, which means this basic calculation is also adjusted to factor in the regular price changes measured by the U.S. inflation rate. Because of this adjustment, U.S. real annual GDP will differ from the U.S. 'nominal' annual GDP for all years except the baseline from which inflation is calculated. What is annualized GDP? The important thing to note about the growth rates in this statistic is that the values are annualized, meaning the U.S. economy has not actually contracted or grown by the percentage shown. For example, the fall of 29.9 percent in the second quarter of 2020 did not mean GDP is suddenly one third less than a year before. In fact, it means that if the decline seen during that quarter continued at the same rate for a full year, then GDP would decline by this amount. Annualized values can therefore exaggerate the effect of short-term economic shocks, as they only look at economic output during a limited period. This effect can be seen by comparing annualized quarterly growth rates with the annual GDP growth rates for each calendar year.

This is not going to be an article or Op-Ed about Michael Jordan. Since 2009 we've been in the longest bull-market in history, that's 11 years and counting. However a few metrics like the stock market P/E, the call to put ratio and of course the Shiller P/E suggest a great crash is coming in-between the levels of 1929 and the dot.com bubble. Mean reversion historically is inevitable and the Fed's printing money experiment could end in disaster for the stock market in late 2021 or 2022. You can read Jeremy Grantham's Last Dance article here. You are likely well aware of Michael Burry's predicament as well. It's easier for you just to skim through two related videos on this topic of a stock market crash. Michael Burry's Warning see this YouTube. Jeremy Grantham's Warning See this YouTube. Typically when there is a major event in the world, there is a crash and then a bear market and a recovery that takes many many months. In March, 2020 that's not what we saw since the Fed did some astonishing things that means a liquidity sloth and the risk of a major inflation event. The pandemic represented the quickest decline of at least 30% in the history of the benchmark S&P 500, but the recovery was not correlated to anything but Fed intervention. Since the pandemic clearly isn't disappearing and many sectors such as travel, business travel, tourism and supply chain disruptions appear significantly disrupted - the so-called economic recovery isn't so great. And there's this little problem at the heart of global capitalism today, the stock market just keeps going up. Crashes and corrections typically occur frequently in a normal market. But the Fed liquidity and irresponsible printing of money is creating a scenario where normal behavior isn't occurring on the markets. According to data provided by market analytics firm Yardeni Research, the benchmark index has undergone 38 declines of at least 10% since the beginning of 1950. Since March, 2020 we've barely seen a down month. September, 2020 was flat-ish. The S&P 500 has more than doubled since those lows. Look at the angle of the curve: The S&P 500 was 735 at the low in 2009, so in this bull market alone it has gone up 6x in valuation. That's not a normal cycle and it could mean we are due for an epic correction. I have to agree with the analysts who claim that the long, long bull market since 2009 has finally matured into a fully-fledged epic bubble. There is a complacency, buy-the dip frenzy and general meme environment to what BigTech can do in such an environment. The weight of Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, Facebook, Nvidia and Tesla together in the S&P and Nasdaq is approach a ridiculous weighting. When these stocks are seen both as growth, value and companies with unbeatable moats the entire dynamics of the stock market begin to break down. Check out FANG during the pandemic. BigTech is Seen as Bullet-Proof me valuations and a hysterical speculative behavior leads to even higher highs, even as 2020 offered many younger people an on-ramp into investing for the first time. Some analysts at JP Morgan are even saying that until retail investors stop charging into stocks, markets probably don’t have too much to worry about. Hedge funds with payment for order flows can predict exactly how these retail investors are behaving and monetize them. PFOF might even have to be banned by the SEC. The risk-on market theoretically just keeps going up until the Fed raises interest rates, which could be in 2023! For some context, we're more than 1.4 years removed from the bear-market bottom of the coronavirus crash and haven't had even a 5% correction in nine months. This is the most over-priced the market has likely ever been. At the night of the dot-com bubble the S&P 500 was only 1,400. Today it is 4,500, not so many years after. Clearly something is not quite right if you look at history and the P/E ratios. A market pumped with liquidity produces higher earnings with historically low interest rates, it's an environment where dangerous things can occur. In late 1997, as the S&P 500 passed its previous 1929 peak of 21x earnings, that seemed like a lot, but nothing compared to today. For some context, the S&P 500 Shiller P/E closed last week at 38.58, which is nearly a two-decade high. It's also well over double the average Shiller P/E of 16.84, dating back 151 years. So the stock market is likely around 2x over-valued. Try to think rationally about what this means for valuations today and your favorite stock prices, what should they be in historical terms? The S&P 500 is up 31% in the past year. It will likely hit 5,000 before a correction given the amount of added liquidity to the system and the QE the Fed is using that's like a huge abuse of MMT, or Modern Monetary Theory. This has also lent to bubbles in the housing market, crypto and even commodities like Gold with long-term global GDP meeting many headwinds in the years ahead due to a demographic shift of an ageing population and significant technological automation. So if you think that stocks or equities or ETFs are the best place to put your money in 2022, you might want to think again. The crash of the OTC and small-cap market since February 2021 has been quite an indication of what a correction looks like. According to the Motley Fool what happens after major downturns in the market historically speaking? In each of the previous four instances that the S&P 500's Shiller P/E shot above and sustained 30, the index lost anywhere from 20% to 89% of its value. So what's what we too are due for, reversion to the mean will be realistically brutal after the Fed's hyper-extreme intervention has run its course. Of course what the Fed stimulus has really done is simply allowed the 1% to get a whole lot richer to the point of wealth inequality spiraling out of control in the decades ahead leading us likely to a dystopia in an unfair and unequal version of BigTech capitalism. This has also led to a trend of short squeeze to these tech stocks, as shown in recent years' data. Of course the Fed has to say that's its done all of these things for the people, employment numbers and the labor market. Women in the workplace have been set behind likely 15 years in social progress due to the pandemic and the Fed's response. While the 89% lost during the Great Depression would be virtually impossible today thanks to ongoing intervention from the Federal Reserve and Capitol Hill, a correction of 20% to 50% would be pretty fair and simply return the curve back to a normal trajectory as interest rates going back up eventually in the 2023 to 2025 period. It's very unlikely the market has taken Fed tapering into account (priced-in), since the euphoria of a can't miss market just keeps pushing the markets higher. But all good things must come to an end. Earlier this month, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released inflation data from July. This report showed that the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers rose 5.2% over the past 12 months. While the Fed and economists promise us this inflation is temporary, others are not so certain. As you print so much money, the money you have is worth less and certain goods cost more. Wage gains in some industries cannot be taken back, they are permanent - in the service sector like restaurants, hospitality and travel that have been among the hardest hit. The pandemic has led to a paradigm shift in the future of work, and that too is not temporary. The Great Resignation means white collar jobs with be more WFM than ever before, with a new software revolution, different transport and energy behaviors and so forth. Climate change alone could slow down global GDP in the 21st century. How can inflation be temporary when so many trends don't appear to be temporary? Sure the price of lumber or used-cars could be temporary, but a global chip shortage is exasperating the automobile sector. The stock market isn't even behaving like it cares about anything other than the Fed, and its $billions of dollars of buying bonds each month. Some central banks will start to taper about December, 2021 (like the European). However Delta could further mutate into a variant that makes the first generation of vaccines less effective. Such a macro event could be enough to trigger the correction we've been speaking about. So stay safe, and keep your money safe. The Last Dance of the 2009 bull market could feel especially more painful because we've been spoiled for so long in the markets. We can barely remember what March, 2020 felt like. Some people sold their life savings simply due to scare tactics by the likes of Bill Ackman. His scare tactics on CNBC won him likely hundreds of millions as the stock market tanked. Hedge funds further gamed the Reddit and Gamestop movement, orchestrating them and leading the new retail investors into meme speculation and a whole bunch of other unsavory things like options trading at such scale we've never seen before. It's not just inflation and higher interest rates, it's how absurdly high valuations have become. Still correlation does not imply causation. Just because inflation has picked up, it doesn't guarantee that stocks will head lower. Nevertheless, weaker buying power associated with higher inflation can't be overlooked as a potential negative for the U.S. economy and equities. The current S&P500 10-year P/E Ratio is 38.7. This is 97% above the modern-era market average of 19.6, putting the current P/E 2.5 standard deviations above the modern-era average. This is just math, folks. History is saying the stock market is 2x its true value. So why and who would be full on the market or an asset class like crypto that is mostly speculative in nature to begin with? Study the following on a historical basis, and due your own due diligence as to the health of the markets: Debt-to-GDP ratio Call to put ratio

Graph and download economic data for Personal Saving Rate (PSAVERT) from Jan 1959 to May 2025 about savings, personal, rate, and USA.

Graph and download economic data for Dates of U.S. recessions as inferred by GDP-based recession indicator (JHDUSRGDPBR) from Q4 1967 to Q4 2024 about recession indicators, GDP, and USA.

United States - Sources of Revenue: Commissions or Fees from Event Tickets for Travel Agencies, All Establishments, Employer Firms was 330.00000 Mil. of $ in January of 2022, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, United States - Sources of Revenue: Commissions or Fees from Event Tickets for Travel Agencies, All Establishments, Employer Firms reached a record high of 457.00000 in January of 2019 and a record low of 157.00000 in January of 2010. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for United States - Sources of Revenue: Commissions or Fees from Event Tickets for Travel Agencies, All Establishments, Employer Firms - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on July of 2025.

Graph and download economic data for Real gross domestic product per capita (A939RX0Q048SBEA) from Q1 1947 to Q1 2025 about per capita, real, GDP, and USA.

Supplementary information files for the article Emerging stock market volatility and economic fundamentals: the importance of US uncertainty spillovers, financial and health crises

Abstract: This paper studies the US and global economic fundamentals that exacerbate emerging stock markets volatility and can be considered as systemic risk factors increasing financial stability vulnerabilities. We apply the bivariate HEAVY system of daily and intra-daily volatility equations enriched with powers, leverage, and macro-effects that improve its forecasting accuracy significantly. Our macro-augmented asymmetric power HEAVY model estimates the inflammatory effect of US uncertainty and infectious disease news impact on equities alongside global credit and commodity factors on emerging stock index realized volatility. Our study further demonstrates the power of the economic uncertainty channel, showing that higher US policy uncertainty levels increase the leverage effects and the impact from the common macro-financial proxies on emerging markets’ financial volatility. Lastly, we provide evidence on the crucial role of both financial and health crisis events (the 2008 global financial turmoil and the recent Covid-19 pandemic) in raising markets’ turbulence and amplifying the volatility macro-drivers impact, as well.

Over the past five years, rising disposable income and a temporary spike in the marriage rate didn’t do much to support demand for event planners, as most consumers and businesses lost their footing following a period of economic volatility. When social distancing guidelines eased, party and event planners experienced a moderate surge as clients who postponed their events during the pandemic were eager to celebrate. This temporary advancement was not enough for party planners to significantly recover, with revenue rising at a CAGR of just 0.1% over the past five years. Revenue will total $6.8 billion in 2024, when it will contract 0.8%. Many businesses shifted to remote work and as office rental vacancies remained high, party and event planners saw less business from corporate clients. Inflationary pressures and falling consumer confidence disincentivized businesses from seeking party and event planners’ services, encouraging them to focus on essential purchases and cutting discretionary spending. Despite facing headwinds, party and event planners enjoyed mild profit growth because of the surge in marriages in 2021 and 2022, as pent-up demand following the lifting of social distancing measures spurred renewed demand.Over the next five years, party and event planners will undergo modest growth. Rising disposable income and higher corporate profit than the current period will support party planners. Still, a plummeting marriage rate and a preference for DIY will continue to limit revenue and profit growth. Barriers to entry will remain low as virtual event planning services remain popular, allowing new planners to enter and intensify internal competition. Industry revenue is expected to expand at a CAGR of 0.7% to $7.1 billion through the end of 2029.

We use the yield curve to predict future GDP growth and recession probabilities. The spread between short- and long-term rates typically correlates with economic growth. Predications are calculated using a model developed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. Released monthly.

The Covid-19 pandemic saw growth fall by 2.2 percent, compared with an increase of 2.5 percent the year before. The last time the real GDP growth rates fell by a similar level was during the Great Recession in 2009, and the only other time since the Second World War where real GDP fell by more than one percent was in the early 1980s recession. The given records began following the Wall Street Crash in 1929, and GDP growth fluctuated greatly between the Great Depression and the 1950s, before growth became more consistent.

According to a survey conducted between July 9 and July 11, 2022, 45 percent of Americans thought that Joe Biden was highly responsible for the current trend in the inflation rate. This is compared to 26 percent of Americans who said President Biden did not have a lot of responsibility for the current inflation rate.

Inflation in the U.S. Global events in 2022 had a significant impact on the United States. Inflation rose from 1.4 percent in January 2021 to 9.1 percent in June 2022. Significantly higher prices of basic goods led to increased concern over the state of the economy, and the ability to cover increasing monthly costs with the same income. Low interest rates, COVID-19-related supply constraints, corporate profiteering, and strong consumer spending had already put pressure on prices before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Despite rising wages on paper, the rapid growth of consumer prices resulted in an overall decline in real hourly earnings in the first half of 2022.

How much control does Joe Biden have over inflation? The bulk of economic performance and the inflation rate is determined by factors outside the President’s direct control, but U.S. presidents are often held accountable for it. Some of those factors are market forces, private business, productivity growth, the state of the global economy, and policies of the Federal Reserve. Although high-spending decisions such as the 2021 COVID-19 relief bill may have contributed to rising inflation rates, the bill has been seen by economists as a necessary intervention for preventing a recession at the time, as well as being of significant importance to low-income workers impacted by the pandemic.

The most important tool for curbing inflation and controlling the U.S. economy is the Federal Reserve. The Reserve has the ability to set, raise, and lower interest rates and determine the wider monetary policy for the United States – something out of the president’s control. In June 2022, the Reserve announced it would raise interest rates 0.75 percent for the second time that year – hoisting the rate to a target range of 2.25 to 2.5 percent – in an attempt to slow consumer demand and balance demand with supply. However, it can often take time before the impacts of interventions by the Federal Reserve are seen in the public’s day-to-day lives. Most economists expect this wave of inflation to pass in a year to 18 months.

Graph and download economic data for FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Fed Funds Rate, Median (FEDTARMD) from 2025 to 2027 about projection, federal, median, rate, and USA.