Following the drastic increase directly after the COVID-19 pandemic, the delinquency rate started to gradually decline, falling below *** percent in the second quarter of 2023. In the second half of 2023, the delinquency rate picked up, but remained stable throughout 2024. In the first quarter of 2025, **** percent of mortgage loans were delinquent. That was significantly lower than the **** percent during the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 or the peak of *** percent during the subprime mortgage crisis of 2007-2010. What does the mortgage delinquency rate tell us? The mortgage delinquency rate is the share of the total number of mortgaged home loans in the U.S. where payment is overdue by 30 days or more. Many borrowers eventually manage to service their loan, though, as indicated by the markedly lower foreclosure rates. Total home mortgage debt in the U.S. stood at almost ** trillion U.S. dollars in 2024. Not all mortgage loans are made equal ‘Subprime’ loans, being targeted at high-risk borrowers and generally coupled with higher interest rates to compensate for the risk. These loans have far higher delinquency rates than conventional loans. Defaulting on such loans was one of the triggers for the 2007-2010 financial crisis, with subprime delinquency rates reaching almost ** percent around this time. These higher delinquency rates translate into higher foreclosure rates, which peaked at just under ** percent of all subprime mortgages in 2011.

Graph and download economic data for Delinquency Rate on Single-Family Residential Mortgages, Booked in Domestic Offices, All Commercial Banks (DRSFRMACBS) from Q1 1991 to Q1 2025 about domestic offices, delinquencies, 1-unit structures, mortgage, family, residential, commercial, domestic, banks, depository institutions, rate, and USA.

The Global Financial Crisis of 2008-09 was a period of severe macroeconomic instability for the United States and the global economy more generally. The crisis was precipitated by the collapse of a number of financial institutions who were deeply involved in the U.S. mortgage market and associated credit markets. Beginning in the Summer of 2007, a number of banks began to report issues with increasing mortgage delinquencies and the problem of not being able to accurately price derivatives contracts which were based on bundles of these U.S. residential mortgages. By the end of 2008, U.S. financial institutions had begun to fail due to their exposure to the housing market, leading to one of the deepest recessions in the history of the United States and to extensive government bailouts of the financial sector.

Subprime and the collapse of the U.S. mortgage market

The early 2000s had seen explosive growth in the U.S. mortgage market, as credit became cheaper due to the Federal Reserve's decision to lower interest rates in the aftermath of the 2001 'Dot Com' Crash, as well as because of the increasing globalization of financial flows which directed funds into U.S. financial markets. Lower mortgage rates gave incentive to financial institutions to begin lending to riskier borrowers, using so-called 'subprime' loans. These were loans to borrowers with poor credit scores, who would not have met the requirements for a conventional mortgage loan. In order to hedge against the risk of these riskier loans, financial institutions began to use complex financial instruments known as derivatives, which bundled mortgage loans together and allowed the risk of default to be sold on to willing investors. This practice was supposed to remove the risk from these loans, by effectively allowing credit institutions to buy insurance against delinquencies. Due to the fraudulent practices of credit ratings agencies, however, the price of these contacts did not reflect the real risk of the loans involved. As the reality of the inability of the borrowers to repay began to kick in during 2007, the financial markets which traded these derivatives came under increasing stress and eventually led to a 'sudden stop' in trading and credit intermediation during 2008.

Market Panic and The Great Recession

As borrowers failed to make repayments, this had a knock-on effect among financial institutions who were highly leveraged with financial instruments based on the mortgage market. Lehman Brothers, one of the world's largest investment banks, failed on September 15th 2008, causing widespread panic in financial markets. Due to the fear of an unprecedented collapse in the financial sector which would have untold consequences for the wider economy, the U.S. government and central bank, The Fed, intervened the following day to bailout the United States' largest insurance company, AIG, and to backstop financial markets. The crisis prompted a deep recession, known colloquially as The Great Recession, drawing parallels between this period and The Great Depression. The collapse of credit intermediation in the economy lead to further issues in the real economy, as business were increasingly unable to pay back loans and were forced to lay off staff, driving unemployment to a high of almost 10 percent in 2010. While there has been criticism of the U.S. government's actions to bailout the financial institutions involved, the actions of the government and the Fed are seen by many as having prevented the crisis from spiraling into a depression of the magnitude of The Great Depression.

United States - Net Percentage of Domestic Banks Reporting Stronger Demand for Subprime Mortgage Loans was -7.10% in April of 2025, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, United States - Net Percentage of Domestic Banks Reporting Stronger Demand for Subprime Mortgage Loans reached a record high of 40.00 in July of 2015 and a record low of -100.00 in October of 2008. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for United States - Net Percentage of Domestic Banks Reporting Stronger Demand for Subprime Mortgage Loans - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on July of 2025.

Graph and download economic data for Bank Prime Loan Rate Changes: Historical Dates of Changes and Rates (PRIME) from 1955-08-04 to 2024-12-20 about prime, loans, interest rate, banks, interest, depository institutions, rate, and USA.

United States - Net Percentage of Domestic Banks Tightening Standards for Subprime Mortgage Loans was 0.00% in April of 2025, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, United States - Net Percentage of Domestic Banks Tightening Standards for Subprime Mortgage Loans reached a record high of 100.00 in October of 2008 and a record low of 0.00 in July of 2012. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for United States - Net Percentage of Domestic Banks Tightening Standards for Subprime Mortgage Loans - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on June of 2025.

In the second quarter of 2024, the share of mortgage loans in the foreclosure process in the U.S. decreased slightly to **** percent. Following the outbreak of the coronavirus crisis, mortgage delinquency rates spiked to the highest levels since the Subprime mortgage crisis (2007-2010). To prevent further impact on homeowners, Congress passed the CARES Act that provides foreclosure protections for borrowers with federally backed mortgage loans. As a result, the foreclosure rate fell to historically low levels.

Commercial Banks generate most of their revenue through loans to customers and businesses. Loans are set at interest rates that are influenced by different factors, including the federal funds rate (FFR), the prime rate, debtors' creditworthiness and overall macroeconomic performance. The Commercial Banking industry’s performance was mixed during the current period, which included both the postpandemic recovery and a strong economy amid high interest rates. At the onset of the period, volatile economic conditions created domestic and global dollar funding pressures, creating havoc in the Treasuries market and causing the Fed to act as a dealer of last resort by flooding the international and domestic dollar funding markets with liquidity. The Fed set interest rates to near zero in March 2020 to stimulate the economy; despite this, weak economic performance in 2020 limited demand for bank lending and investment, causing industry revenue to decline. In 2022, the Fed began increasing interest rates to curb historically high inflation. Commercial Banks benefited from the higher rates, which resulted in greater interest income for the industry and contributed to double-digit revenue growth in 2022 and 2023. However, as inflation receded, the Fed cut interest rates in 2024 and is anticipated to cut rates further in 2025 to provide a boost to the economy. Overall, industry revenue has been growing at a CAGR of 7.2% to $1,418.0 billion over the past five years, including an expected decrease of 3.7% in 2025 alone. During the outlook period, industry revenue is forecast to shrink at a CAGR of 1.3% to $1,328.5 billion through the end of 2030. Further interest rate cuts would lower interest income for the industry, hampering profit. In a lower interest rate environment, commercial banks would likely encounter rising loan demand but experience reduced investment income from fixed-income securities. In addition, the acquisition of financial technology start-ups to compete will increase as the industry continues to evolve.

The average price per square foot of floor space in new single-family housing in the United States decreased after the great financial crisis, followed by several years of stagnation. Since 2012, the price has continuously risen, hitting 168 U.S. dollars per square foot in 2022. In 2024, the average sales price of a new home exceeded 500,000 U.S. dollars. Development of house sales in the U.S. One of the reasons for rising property prices is the gradual growth of house sales between 2011 and 2020. This period was marked by the gradual recovery following the subprime mortgage crisis and a growing housing sentiment. Another significant factor for the housing demand was the growing number of new household formations each year. Despite this trend, housing transactions plummeted in 2021, amid soaring prices and borrowing costs. In 2021, the average construction cost for single-family housing rose by nearly 12 percent year-on-year, and in 2022, the increase was even higher, at close to 17 percent. Financing a house purchase Mortgage interest rates in the U.S. rose dramatically in 2022 and remained elevated until 2024. In 2020, a homebuyer could lock in a 30-year fixed interest rate of under three percent, whereas in 2024, the average rate for the same mortgage type was more than twice higher. That has led to a decline in homebuyer sentiment, and an increasing share of the population pessimistic about buying a home in the current market.