Controllable spread date and number of cases on December 31, 2021 for different daily vaccination capacity and adherence to nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPI) scenarios (vaccine effectiveness 90%, vaccine coverage 50%).

Elevation, yearly precipitation, mean temperature and humidity were calculated from climatological data for 1981–2010 [44]. Population for each municipality calculated from 1985–2020 population projections (Source: National Administrative Department of Statistics: www.dane.gov.co [45]).There were increases in population size during the study period in Bello (388,401 in 2007 and 473,423 in 2017) and Cúcuta (599,905 in 2007 and 662,673 in 2017) but population remained relatively stable in Moniquirá (21,785 in 2007 and 21,284 in 2017). Disease incidence: Burden of Ae. aegypti borne diseases in cases per 100,000 people, calculated by taking number of cases and population in each year independently and combining these to give total incidence for all years (2007–2017) [46]. Elevation in metres (m), precipitation in millimetres (mm) and temperature in degrees Celsius (oC).