Over the past 30 years, the birth rate in the United States has been steadily declining, and in 2023, there were 10.7 births per 1,000 of the population. In 1990, this figure stood at 16.7 births per 1,000 of the population. Demographics have an impact The average birth rate in the U.S. may be falling, but when broken down along ethnic and economic lines, a different picture is painted: Native Hawaiian and other Pacific Islander women saw the highest birth rate in 2022 among all ethnicities, and Asian women and white women both saw the lowest birth rate. Additionally, the higher the family income, the lower the birth rate; families making between 15,000 and 24,999 U.S. dollars annually had the highest birth rate of any income bracket in the States. Life expectancy at birth In addition to the declining birth rate in the U.S., the total life expectancy at birth has also reached its lowest value recently. Studies have shown that the life expectancy of both men and women in the United States has been declining over the last few years. Declines in life expectancy, like declines in birth rates, may indicate that there are social and economic factors negatively influencing the overall population health and well-being of the country.

This paper documents a set of facts about the dramatic decline in birth rates in the United States between 2007 and 2020 and explores possible explanations for it. The overall reduction in the birth rate reflects both very large declines within certain groups of women, including teens and Hispanic women – and smaller declines among demographic groups that comprise a large population share, including college-educated white women. We explore potential economic, policy, and social factors that might be responsible for the overall decline. We conclude from our empirical examination of possible factors that there is not a readily identifiable economic or policy factor or set of factors this is likely responsible for a substantial share of the decline. Instead, the patterns observed suggest that widespread, hard to quantify changes in preferences for having children, aspirations for life, and the nature of parenting are more likely behind the recent decline in US births. We conclude with a brief discussion about the societal consequences for a declining birth rate and what the United States might do about it.

Today, globally, women of childbearing age have an average of approximately 2.2 children over the course of their lifetime. In pre-industrial times, most women could expect to have somewhere between five and ten live births throughout their lifetime; however, the demographic transition then sees fertility rates fall significantly. Looking ahead, it is believed that the global fertility rate will fall below replacement level in the 2050s, which will eventually lead to population decline when life expectancy plateaus. Recent decades Between the 1950s and 1970s, the global fertility rate was roughly five children per woman - this was partly due to the post-WWII baby boom in many countries, on top of already-high rates in less-developed countries. The drop around 1960 can be attributed to China's "Great Leap Forward", where famine and disease in the world's most populous country saw the global fertility rate drop by roughly 0.5 children per woman. Between the 1970s and today, fertility rates fell consistently, although the rate of decline noticeably slowed as the baby boomer generation then began having their own children. Replacement level fertility Replacement level fertility, i.e. the number of children born per woman that a population needs for long-term stability, is approximately 2.1 children per woman. Populations may continue to grow naturally despite below-replacement level fertility, due to reduced mortality and increased life expectancy, however, these will plateau with time and then population decline will occur. It is believed that the global fertility rate will drop below replacement level in the mid-2050s, although improvements in healthcare and living standards will see population growth continue into the 2080s when the global population will then start falling.

Graph and download economic data for Fertility Rate, Total for the United States (SPDYNTFRTINUSA) from 1960 to 2023 about fertility, rate, and USA.

The total fertility rate of the world has dropped from around 5 children per woman in 1950, to 2.2 children per woman in 2025, which means that women today are having fewer than half the number of children that women did 75 years ago. Replacement level fertility This change has come as a result of the global demographic transition, and is influenced by factors such as the significant reduction in infant and child mortality, reduced number of child marriages, increased educational and vocational opportunities for women, and the increased efficacy and availability of contraception. While this change has become synonymous with societal progress, it does have wide-reaching demographic impact - if the global average falls below replacement level (roughly 2.1 children per woman), as is expected to happen in the 2050s, then this will lead to long-term population decline on a global scale. Regional variations When broken down by continent, Africa is the only region with a fertility rate above the global average, and, alongside Oceania, it is the only region with a fertility rate above replacement level. Until the 1980s, the average woman in Africa could expect to have 6-7 children over the course of their lifetime, and there are still several countries in Africa where women can still expect to have 5 or more children in 2025. Historically, Europe has had the lowest fertility rates in the world over the past century, falling below replacement level in 1975. Europe's population has grown through a combination of migration and increasing life expectancy, however even high immigration rates could not prevent its population from going into decline in 2021.

Crude birth rates, age-specific fertility rates and total fertility rates (live births), 2000 to most recent year.

The average for 2022 based on 196 countries was 18.19 births per 1000 people. The highest value was in the Central African Republic: 45.42 births per 1000 people and the lowest value was in Hong Kong: 4.4 births per 1000 people. The indicator is available from 1960 to 2023. Below is a chart for all countries where data are available.

In 2024, the birth rate in South Korea stood at 0.75 births per woman. The country has long struggled with a declining birth rate, dropping below one birth per woman in 2018.

The statistic shows the 20 countries with the lowest fertility rates in 2024. All figures are estimates. In 2024, the fertility rate in Taiwan was estimated to be at 1.11 children per woman, making it the lowest fertility rate worldwide. Fertility rate The fertility rate is the average number of children born per woman of child-bearing age in a country. Usually, a woman aged between 15 and 45 is considered to be in her child-bearing years. The fertility rate of a country provides an insight into its economic state, as well as the level of health and education of its population. Developing countries usually have a higher fertility rate due to lack of access to birth control and contraception, and to women usually foregoing a higher education, or even any education at all, in favor of taking care of housework. Many families in poorer countries also need their children to help provide for the family by starting to work early and/or as caretakers for their parents in old age. In developed countries, fertility rates and birth rates are usually much lower, as birth control is easier to obtain and women often choose a career before becoming a mother. Additionally, if the number of women of child-bearing age declines, so does the fertility rate of a country. As can be seen above, countries like Hong Kong are a good example for women leaving the patriarchal structures and focusing on their own career instead of becoming a mother at a young age, causing a decline of the country’s fertility rate. A look at the fertility rate per woman worldwide by income group also shows that women with a low income tend to have more children than those with a high income. The United States are neither among the countries with the lowest, nor among those with the highest fertility rate, by the way. At 2.08 children per woman, the fertility rate in the US has been continuously slightly below the global average of about 2.4 children per woman over the last decade.

United States Total Fertility Rate: Black data was reported at 1,581.000 % in 2023. This records a decrease from the previous number of 1,639.000 % for 2022. United States Total Fertility Rate: Black data is updated yearly, averaging 2,062.000 % from Dec 1985 (Median) to 2023, with 39 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 2,480.000 % in 1990 and a record low of 1,581.000 % in 2023. United States Total Fertility Rate: Black data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.G013: Fertility Rate.

The average for 2022 based on 195 countries was 18.38 births per 1000 people. The highest value was in Niger: 45.03 births per 1000 people and the lowest value was in Hong Kong: 4.4 births per 1000 people. The indicator is available from 1960 to 2022. Below is a chart for all countries where data are available.

United States Birth Rate: White data was reported at 9.300 % in 2023. This records a decrease from the previous number of 9.500 % for 2022. United States Birth Rate: White data is updated yearly, averaging 13.700 % from Dec 1985 (Median) to 2023, with 39 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 15.800 % in 1990 and a record low of 9.300 % in 2023. United States Birth Rate: White data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.G008: Birth Rate.

United States US: Fertility Rate: Total: Births per Woman data was reported at 1.800 Ratio in 2016. This records a decrease from the previous number of 1.843 Ratio for 2015. United States US: Fertility Rate: Total: Births per Woman data is updated yearly, averaging 2.002 Ratio from Dec 1960 (Median) to 2016, with 57 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 3.654 Ratio in 1960 and a record low of 1.738 Ratio in 1976. United States US: Fertility Rate: Total: Births per Woman data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by World Bank. The data is categorized under Global Database’s USA – Table US.World Bank: Health Statistics. Total fertility rate represents the number of children that would be born to a woman if she were to live to the end of her childbearing years and bear children in accordance with age-specific fertility rates of the specified year.; ; (1) United Nations Population Division. World Population Prospects: 2017 Revision. (2) Census reports and other statistical publications from national statistical offices, (3) Eurostat: Demographic Statistics, (4) United Nations Statistical Division. Population and Vital Statistics Reprot (various years), (5) U.S. Census Bureau: International Database, and (6) Secretariat of the Pacific Community: Statistics and Demography Programme.; Weighted average; Relevance to gender indicator: it can indicate the status of women within households and a woman’s decision about the number and spacing of children.

In 2021 the live birth rate of the United Kingdom fell to 10.4 births per 1,000 population, the lowest it had been during this time period. The UK's birth rate has been declining steadily since 2010 when the birth rate was 12.9 births per 1,000 population. After 1938, the year with the highest birth rate in the UK was 1947, when the crude birth rate was 21.2 births per 1,000 population. Under two children per mother in 2021 The most recent crude live birth rate for this statistic is based on the 694,685 births, that occurred in 2021 as well as the mid-year population estimate of 67 million for the United Kingdom. It has a close relation to the fertility rate which estimates the average number of children women are expected to have in their lifetime, which was 1.53 in this reporting year. Among the constituent countries of the UK, Northern Ireland had the highest birth rate at 11.6, followed by England at 10.5, Wales at 9.3, and Scotland at 8.7. International comparisons The UK is not alone in seeing its birth and fertility rates decline dramatically in recent decades. Across the globe, fertility rates have fallen noticeably since the 1960s, with the fertility rate for Asia, Europe, and the Americas being below two in 2021. As of this year, the global fertility rate was 2.31, and was by far the highest in Africa, which had a fertility rate of 4.12, although this too has fallen from a high of 6.72 in the late 1960s. A reduction in infant mortality, as well as better access to contraception, are factors that have typically influenced declining fertility rates recently.

India: The number of crude births per 1000 people, per year: The latest value from 2022 is 16.27 births per 1000 people, a decline from 16.42 births per 1000 people in 2021. In comparison, the world average is 18.38 births per 1000 people, based on data from 195 countries. Historically, the average for India from 1960 to 2022 is 30.5 births per 1000 people. The minimum value, 16.27 births per 1000 people, was reached in 2022 while the maximum of 42.51 births per 1000 people was recorded in 1960.

Brazil: The number of crude births per 1000 people, per year: The latest value from 2023 is 12.32 births per 1000 people, a decline from 12.56 births per 1000 people in 2022. In comparison, the world average is 17.86 births per 1000 people, based on data from 196 countries. Historically, the average for Brazil from 1960 to 2023 is 25.44 births per 1000 people. The minimum value, 12.32 births per 1000 people, was reached in 2023 while the maximum of 43.85 births per 1000 people was recorded in 1960.

Congo, Republic of CG: Fertility Rate: Total: Births per Woman data was reported at 4.157 Ratio in 2023. This records a decrease from the previous number of 4.215 Ratio for 2022. Congo, Republic of CG: Fertility Rate: Total: Births per Woman data is updated yearly, averaging 5.199 Ratio from Dec 1960 (Median) to 2023, with 64 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 6.444 Ratio in 1972 and a record low of 4.157 Ratio in 2023. Congo, Republic of CG: Fertility Rate: Total: Births per Woman data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by World Bank. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Congo, Republic of – Table CG.World Bank.WDI: Social: Health Statistics. Total fertility rate represents the number of children that would be born to a woman if she were to live to the end of her childbearing years and bear children in accordance with age-specific fertility rates of the specified year.;(1) United Nations Population Division. World Population Prospects: 2024 Revision; (2) Statistical databases and publications from national statistical offices; (3) Eurostat: Demographic Statistics.;Weighted average;Relevance to gender indicator: it can indicate the status of women within households and a woman’s decision about the number and spacing of children.

South Korea: Fertility rate, births per woman: The latest value from 2023 is 0.72 births per woman, a decline from 0.78 births per woman in 2022. In comparison, the world average is 2.41 births per woman, based on data from 196 countries. Historically, the average for South Korea from 1960 to 2023 is 2.33 births per woman. The minimum value, 0.72 births per woman, was reached in 2023 while the maximum of 5.99 births per woman was recorded in 1960.

This data set contains estimated teen birth rates for age group 15–19 (expressed per 1,000 females aged 15–19) by county and year.

DEFINITIONS

Estimated teen birth rate: Model-based estimates of teen birth rates for age group 15–19 (expressed per 1,000 females aged 15–19) for a specific county and year. Estimated county teen birth rates were obtained using the methods described elsewhere (1,2,3,4). These annual county-level teen birth estimates “borrow strength” across counties and years to generate accurate estimates where data are sparse due to small population size (1,2,3,4). The inferential method uses information—including the estimated teen birth rates from neighboring counties across years and the associated explanatory variables—to provide a stable estimate of the county teen birth rate. Median teen birth rate: The middle value of the estimated teen birth rates for the age group 15–19 for counties in a state. Bayesian credible intervals: A range of values within which there is a 95% probability that the actual teen birth rate will fall, based on the observed teen births data and the model.

NOTES

Data on the number of live births for women aged 15–19 years were extracted from the National Center for Health Statistics’ (NCHS) National Vital Statistics System birth data files for 2003–2015 (5).

Population estimates were extracted from the files containing intercensal and postcensal bridged-race population estimates provided by NCHS. For each year, the July population estimates were used, with the exception of the year of the decennial census, 2010, for which the April estimates were used.

Hierarchical Bayesian space–time models were used to generate hierarchical Bayesian estimates of county teen birth rates for each year during 2003–2015 (1,2,3,4).

The Bayesian analogue of the frequentist confidence interval is defined as the Bayesian credible interval. A 100*(1-α)% Bayesian credible interval for an unknown parameter vector θ and observed data vector y is a subset C of parameter space Ф such that 1-α≤P({C│y})=∫p{θ │y}dθ, where integration is performed over the set and is replaced by summation for discrete components of θ. The probability that θ lies in C given the observed data y is at least (1- α) (6).

County borders in Alaska changed, and new counties were formed and others were merged, during 2003–2015. These changes were reflected in the population files but not in the natality files. For this reason, two counties in Alaska were collapsed so that the birth and population counts were comparable. Additionally, Kalawao County, a remote island county in Hawaii, recorded no births, and census estimates indicated a denominator of 0 (i.e., no females between the ages of 15 and 19 years residing in the county from 2003 through 2015). For this reason, Kalawao County was removed from the analysis. Also , Bedford City, Virginia, was added to Bedford County in 2015 and no longer appears in the mortality file in 2015. For consistency, Bedford City was merged with Bedford County, Virginia, for the entire 2003–2015 period. Final analysis was conducted on 3,137 counties for each year from 2003 through 2015. County boundaries are consistent with the vintage 2005–2007 bridged-race population file geographies (7).

For most of the past two centuries, falling birth rates have been associated with societal progress. During the demographic transition, where pre-industrial societies modernize in terms of fertility and mortality, falling death rates, especially among infants and children, are the first major change. In response, as more children survive into adulthood, women have fewer children as the need to compensate for child mortality declines. This transition has happened at different times across the world and is an ongoing process, with early industrial countries being the first to transition, and Sub-Saharan African countries being the most recent to do so. Additionally, some Asian countries (particularly China through government policy) have gone through their demographic transitions at a much faster pace than those deemed more developed. Today, in countries such as Japan, Italy, and Germany, birth rates have fallen well below death rates; this is no longer considered a positive demographic trend, as it leads to natural population decline, and may create an over-aged population that could place a burden on healthcare systems.