Over the past 30 years, the birth rate in the United States has been steadily declining, and in 2023, there were 10.7 births per 1,000 of the population. In 1990, this figure stood at 16.7 births per 1,000 of the population. Demographics have an impact The average birth rate in the U.S. may be falling, but when broken down along ethnic and economic lines, a different picture is painted: Native Hawaiian and other Pacific Islander women saw the highest birth rate in 2022 among all ethnicities, and Asian women and white women both saw the lowest birth rate. Additionally, the higher the family income, the lower the birth rate; families making between 15,000 and 24,999 U.S. dollars annually had the highest birth rate of any income bracket in the States. Life expectancy at birth In addition to the declining birth rate in the U.S., the total life expectancy at birth has also reached its lowest value recently. Studies have shown that the life expectancy of both men and women in the United States has been declining over the last few years. Declines in life expectancy, like declines in birth rates, may indicate that there are social and economic factors negatively influencing the overall population health and well-being of the country.

This paper documents a set of facts about the dramatic decline in birth rates in the United States between 2007 and 2020 and explores possible explanations for it. The overall reduction in the birth rate reflects both very large declines within certain groups of women, including teens and Hispanic women – and smaller declines among demographic groups that comprise a large population share, including college-educated white women. We explore potential economic, policy, and social factors that might be responsible for the overall decline. We conclude from our empirical examination of possible factors that there is not a readily identifiable economic or policy factor or set of factors this is likely responsible for a substantial share of the decline. Instead, the patterns observed suggest that widespread, hard to quantify changes in preferences for having children, aspirations for life, and the nature of parenting are more likely behind the recent decline in US births. We conclude with a brief discussion about the societal consequences for a declining birth rate and what the United States might do about it.

The statistic shows the 20 countries with the lowest fertility rates in 2024. All figures are estimates. In 2024, the fertility rate in Taiwan was estimated to be at 1.11 children per woman, making it the lowest fertility rate worldwide. Fertility rate The fertility rate is the average number of children born per woman of child-bearing age in a country. Usually, a woman aged between 15 and 45 is considered to be in her child-bearing years. The fertility rate of a country provides an insight into its economic state, as well as the level of health and education of its population. Developing countries usually have a higher fertility rate due to lack of access to birth control and contraception, and to women usually foregoing a higher education, or even any education at all, in favor of taking care of housework. Many families in poorer countries also need their children to help provide for the family by starting to work early and/or as caretakers for their parents in old age. In developed countries, fertility rates and birth rates are usually much lower, as birth control is easier to obtain and women often choose a career before becoming a mother. Additionally, if the number of women of child-bearing age declines, so does the fertility rate of a country. As can be seen above, countries like Hong Kong are a good example for women leaving the patriarchal structures and focusing on their own career instead of becoming a mother at a young age, causing a decline of the country’s fertility rate. A look at the fertility rate per woman worldwide by income group also shows that women with a low income tend to have more children than those with a high income. The United States are neither among the countries with the lowest, nor among those with the highest fertility rate, by the way. At 2.08 children per woman, the fertility rate in the US has been continuously slightly below the global average of about 2.4 children per woman over the last decade.

Graph and download economic data for Crude Birth Rate for the United States (SPDYNCBRTINUSA) from 1960 to 2023 about birth, crude, rate, and USA.

In 2024, the birth rate in South Korea stood at 0.75 births per woman. The country has long struggled with a declining birth rate, dropping below one birth per woman in 2018.

Graph and download economic data for Fertility Rate, Total for the United States (SPDYNTFRTINUSA) from 1960 to 2023 about fertility, rate, and USA.

Today, globally, women of childbearing age have an average of approximately 2.2 children over the course of their lifetime. In pre-industrial times, most women could expect to have somewhere between five and ten live births throughout their lifetime; however, the demographic transition then sees fertility rates fall significantly. Looking ahead, it is believed that the global fertility rate will fall below replacement level in the 2050s, which will eventually lead to population decline when life expectancy plateaus. Recent decades Between the 1950s and 1970s, the global fertility rate was roughly five children per woman - this was partly due to the post-WWII baby boom in many countries, on top of already-high rates in less-developed countries. The drop around 1960 can be attributed to China's "Great Leap Forward", where famine and disease in the world's most populous country saw the global fertility rate drop by roughly 0.5 children per woman. Between the 1970s and today, fertility rates fell consistently, although the rate of decline noticeably slowed as the baby boomer generation then began having their own children. Replacement level fertility Replacement level fertility, i.e. the number of children born per woman that a population needs for long-term stability, is approximately 2.1 children per woman. Populations may continue to grow naturally despite below-replacement level fertility, due to reduced mortality and increased life expectancy, however, these will plateau with time and then population decline will occur. It is believed that the global fertility rate will drop below replacement level in the mid-2050s, although improvements in healthcare and living standards will see population growth continue into the 2080s when the global population will then start falling.

The average for 2022 based on 195 countries was 18.38 births per 1000 people. The highest value was in Niger: 45.03 births per 1000 people and the lowest value was in Hong Kong: 4.4 births per 1000 people. The indicator is available from 1960 to 2022. Below is a chart for all countries where data are available.

In 2023, there were around *** live births per 1,000 inhabitants in Japan, down from about *** in the previous year. The total number of live births in the nation amounted to approximately ******* in 2023. Japan’s super aging society Directly after the end of WWII, the live birth rate in Japan was over ** per 1,000 of population. The rate has constantly dropped in the last decades after the second baby boom (between 1971 and 1974). Meanwhile, the life expectancy of the Japanese people has increased, reaching about **** years for women and **** years for men in 2022. Due to the combination of both factors, Japan has developed into one of the most rapidly aging societies in the world. Almost ** percent of Japan’s population is currently aged 65 years and older, falling into the “super-aged nation” defined by international institutions and organizations.  Decreasing number of marriages In Japan, the number of births outside of marriage is small. The Japanese government, therefore, considers the decreasing number of marriages as the driving factor behind the country’s fertility decline. As of 2023, the number of marriages per 1,000 Japanese citizens was ***, less than half compared to that in the early *****. The average age of first marriage has also risen for both men and women. This trend can be partially attributed to the increasing number of employed and therefore financially and socially independent women in the past two decades. The employment rate of women in Japan exceeded ** percent for the first time in history in ****.

Crude birth rates, age-specific fertility rates and total fertility rates (live births), 2000 to most recent year.

India: The number of crude births per 1000 people, per year: The latest value from 2022 is 16.27 births per 1000 people, a decline from 16.42 births per 1000 people in 2021. In comparison, the world average is 18.38 births per 1000 people, based on data from 195 countries. Historically, the average for India from 1960 to 2022 is 30.5 births per 1000 people. The minimum value, 16.27 births per 1000 people, was reached in 2022 while the maximum of 42.51 births per 1000 people was recorded in 1960.

United States Total Fertility Rate: Black data was reported at 1,581.000 % in 2023. This records a decrease from the previous number of 1,639.000 % for 2022. United States Total Fertility Rate: Black data is updated yearly, averaging 2,062.000 % from Dec 1985 (Median) to 2023, with 39 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 2,480.000 % in 1990 and a record low of 1,581.000 % in 2023. United States Total Fertility Rate: Black data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.G013: Fertility Rate.

The total fertility rate of the world has dropped from around 5 children per woman in 1950, to 2.2 children per woman in 2025, which means that women today are having fewer than half the number of children that women did 75 years ago. Replacement level fertility This change has come as a result of the global demographic transition, and is influenced by factors such as the significant reduction in infant and child mortality, reduced number of child marriages, increased educational and vocational opportunities for women, and the increased efficacy and availability of contraception. While this change has become synonymous with societal progress, it does have wide-reaching demographic impact - if the global average falls below replacement level (roughly 2.1 children per woman), as is expected to happen in the 2050s, then this will lead to long-term population decline on a global scale. Regional variations When broken down by continent, Africa is the only region with a fertility rate above the global average, and, alongside Oceania, it is the only region with a fertility rate above replacement level. Until the 1980s, the average woman in Africa could expect to have 6-7 children over the course of their lifetime, and there are still several countries in Africa where women can still expect to have 5 or more children in 2025. Historically, Europe has had the lowest fertility rates in the world over the past century, falling below replacement level in 1975. Europe's population has grown through a combination of migration and increasing life expectancy, however even high immigration rates could not prevent its population from going into decline in 2021.

The outbreak of the COVID-19 in early 2020 and the recurring epidemic in later years have disturbed China’s economy. Moreover, China’s demographic dividend has been disappearing due to its fastest aging population and declining birth rate. The birth rates in eastern provinces of China are much lower than those of the western provinces. Considering the impacts of the COVID-19 and aging population, this paper focused on the relationship between birth rate and the disposable income and tried to find effective measures to raise China’s birth rate. We discovered through regression analysis that the link between per capita disposable income and birth rate is initially "reverse J" and later "inverted J", indicating that per capita disposable income will influence the birth rate. Women’s employment rate and educational level are negatively correlated with the birth rate. To raise the fertility rate in China, it is necessary to increase the marriage rate and the willingness to have children by raising the per capita disposable income and introducing effective tax relief policies.

BackgroundAge-related decline in fertility is widely recognized. However, a quantitative evaluation of changes in oocyte quality and quantity remains insufficient. Therefore, developing a mathematical model to quantitatively predict live birth rates affected by these changes is essential for supporting decision-making in assisted reproductive technology.MethodsIn this retrospective cohort study, we developed a mathematical model to predict live birth rates based on oocyte quality and quantity using IVF treatment data from our clinic over an 8-year period. In the first stage, medically meaningful model functions were selected, and curve fitting was performed using weighted nonlinear least-squares regression to quantify age-related changes in oocyte quality and quantity. For oocyte quality, a comparative analysis was conducted on our clinical data and other large-scale datasets, modeling the live birth rate per single vitrified-warmed blastocyst transfer (SVBT) in correlation with the euploidy rate. For oocyte quantity, the distributions of anti-Müllerian hormone levels, antral follicle count, mature oocyte count, and transferable embryo count were analyzed by two-dimensional weighted nonlinear least-squares regression. In the second stage, logistic regression was applied to analyze live birth rates per SVBT and oocyte pick-up, incorporating multiple explanatory variables.ResultsThe adjusted R-squared values for the curve fitting results were above 0.9, indicating high fitting accuracy. In oocyte quality evaluation, all datasets showed that the values declined to half their peak by the age of 40 years. With respect to oocyte quantity, complete distribution characteristics were successfully modeled, enabling calculations at any percentile value. Logistic regression analysis incorporating blastocyst grade and culture duration as explanatory variables allowed for embryo selection based on a single indicator (i.e., the live birth rate). In the predictive model for live birth rate per oocyte pick-up, which included age, AMH levels, and number of retrieval cycles as explanatory variables, logistic regression analysis showed an AUC of 0.84 and an accuracy of 76.4%, demonstrating high predictive performance.ConclusionMathematical models of age-dependent oocyte quality and quantity were successfully developed. These models were integrated to construct a multi-variable predictive tool for estimating live birth rates, offering valuable insights for reproductive decision-making.

For most of the past two centuries, falling birth rates have been associated with societal progress. During the demographic transition, where pre-industrial societies modernize in terms of fertility and mortality, falling death rates, especially among infants and children, are the first major change. In response, as more children survive into adulthood, women have fewer children as the need to compensate for child mortality declines. This transition has happened at different times across the world and is an ongoing process, with early industrial countries being the first to transition, and Sub-Saharan African countries being the most recent to do so. Additionally, some Asian countries (particularly China through government policy) have gone through their demographic transitions at a much faster pace than those deemed more developed. Today, in countries such as Japan, Italy, and Germany, birth rates have fallen well below death rates; this is no longer considered a positive demographic trend, as it leads to natural population decline, and may create an over-aged population that could place a burden on healthcare systems.

Singapore: The number of crude births per 1000 people, per year: The latest value from 2022 is 7.9 births per 1000 people, a decline from 8.6 births per 1000 people in 2021. In comparison, the world average is 18.38 births per 1000 people, based on data from 195 countries. Historically, the average for Singapore from 1960 to 2022 is 16.67 births per 1000 people. The minimum value, 7.9 births per 1000 people, was reached in 2022 while the maximum of 37.5 births per 1000 people was recorded in 1960.

The continuous decline in the birth rate can lead to a series of social and economic problems. Accurately predicting the birth rate of a region will help national and local governments to formulate more scientifically sound development policies. This paper proposes a discrete-aware model BRP-Net based on attention mechanism and LSTM, for effectively predicting the birth rate of prefecture-level cities. BRP-Net is trained using multiple variables related to comprehensive development of prefecture-level cities, covering factors such as economy, education and population structure that can influence the birth rate. Additionally, the comprehensive data of China’s prefecture-level cities exhibits strong spatiotemporal specificity. Our model leverages the advantages of attention mechanism to identify the feature correlation and temporal relationships of these multi-variable time series input data. Extensive experimental results demonstrate that the proposed BRP-Net has higher accuracy and better generalization performance compared to other mainstream methods, while being able to adapt to the spatiotemporal specificity of variables between prefecture-level cities. Using BRP-Net to achieve precise and robust prediction estimates of the birth rate in prefecture-level cities can provide more effective decision-making references for local governments to formulate more accurate and reasonable fertility encouragement policies.

In 2025, there are six countries, all in Sub-Saharan Africa, where the average woman of childbearing age can expect to have between 5-6 children throughout their lifetime. In fact, of the 20 countries in the world with the highest fertility rates, Afghanistan and Yemen are the only countries not found in Sub-Saharan Africa. High fertility rates in Africa With a fertility rate of almost six children per woman, Chad is the country with the highest fertility rate in the world. Population growth in Chad is among the highest in the world. Lack of healthcare access, as well as food instability, political instability, and climate change, are all exacerbating conditions that keep Chad's infant mortality rates high, which is generally the driver behind high fertility rates. This situation is common across much of the continent, and, although there has been considerable progress in recent decades, development in Sub-Saharan Africa is not moving as quickly as it did in other regions. Demographic transition While these countries have the highest fertility rates in the world, their rates are all on a generally downward trajectory due to a phenomenon known as the demographic transition. The third stage (of five) of this transition sees birth rates drop in response to decreased infant and child mortality, as families no longer feel the need to compensate for lost children. Eventually, fertility rates fall below replacement level (approximately 2.1 children per woman), which eventually leads to natural population decline once life expectancy plateaus. In some of the most developed countries today, low fertility rates are creating severe econoic and societal challenges as workforces are shrinking while aging populations are placin a greater burden on both public and personal resources.

Hong Kong: The number of crude births per 1000 people, per year: The latest value from 2022 is 4.4 births per 1000 people, a decline from 5 births per 1000 people in 2021. In comparison, the world average is 18.38 births per 1000 people, based on data from 195 countries. Historically, the average for Hong Kong from 1960 to 2022 is 14.64 births per 1000 people. The minimum value, 4.4 births per 1000 people, was reached in 2022 while the maximum of 35.72 births per 1000 people was recorded in 1960.