According to exit polling in ten key states of the 2024 presidential election in the United States, 57 percent of surveyed white voters reported voting for Donald Trump. In contrast, 85 percent of Black voters reported voting for Kamala Harris.

According to exit polling in ten key states of the 2024 presidential election in the United States, Donald Trump received the most support from men between the ages of 45 and 64. In comparison, 61 percent of women between the ages of 18 and 29 reported voting for Kamala Harris.

According to exit polling in ten key states of the 2024 presidential election in the United States, 46 percent of voters with a 2023 household income of 30,000 U.S. dollars or less reported voting for Donald Trump. In comparison, 51 percent of voters with a total family income of 100,000 to 199,999 U.S. dollars reported voting for Kamala Harris.

Since 1824, when the popular vote was first used to determine the overall winner in U.S. presidential elections, the share of the population who participate in these elections has gradually increased. Despite this increase, participation has never reached half of the total population; partly due to the share of the population below the voting age of eighteen, but also as many potential voters above the age of eighteen do not take part, or are ineligible to vote. For example, in the 2016 election, approximately twenty million U.S. adults were ineligible to vote, while over 94 million simply did not participate; in this election, Donald Trump won the electoral college with 63 million votes, which means that 19.4 percent of the total U.S. population (or 27.3 percent of eligible voters) voted for the current president.

Development throughout history

While the figures for the 2016 election may appear low, over 42 percent of the total population participated in this election, which was the third highest participation rate ever recorded (after the 2008 and 2020 elections). In the first election decided by a popular vote in 1824, only 350 thousand votes were cast from a total population of 10.6 million, although this increased to over four million votes by the 1856 election, as restrictions that applied to non-property holding white males were gradually lifted. Participation levels then dropped during the Civil War and Reconstruction era, as those who lived in Confederate states could not vote in 1864, and many white southerners were restricted or discouraged in the following election. Although universal suffrage was granted to black males in the wake of the Civil War, the majority of black Americans lived in the southern states, where lawmakers introduced Jim Crow laws in the late 1800s to suppress and disenfranchise the black vote, as well as poor white voters.

The next major milestone was the introduction of women's suffrage in 1920, which saw voter participation increase by seven million votes (or seven percent) between the 1916 and 1920 elections. Between the 1910s and 1970s, the Great Migration saw many black Americans move away from the south to northern and western states, where they faced fewer obstacles when voting and greater economic mobility. This period of black migration began to decline in the 1960s and 1970s, during which time many Jim Crow laws were repealed in the south, through legislation such as the Voting Rights Act of 1965. Female participation also grew gradually, and has exceeded male voting participation in all elections since the 1980s. The minimum voting age was lowered from 21 to 18 in all states in 1971, although this seemingly had a minimal impact on the short-term trajectory of voter participation.

Recent elections

The 1992 election was the first in which more than one hundred million votes were cast, which was almost 41 percent of the total population. All elections since 2004 have also had more than one hundred million votes cast, which has again been more than forty percent of the total population. Another key factor in the increase in voter participation is the fact that people are living longer than ever before, and that those aged 65 and over have had the highest turnout levels since 1992. While some figures may be subject to change, the 2020 election set new records for voter turnout. Despite the global coronavirus pandemic, which many thought could cause the lowest turnout in decades, a record number of voters cast their ballots early or by mail, setting a new record of votes just shy of 160 million. In the 2020 election, Joe Biden and Donald Trump received 81.3 million and 74.2 million votes respectively, both beating Barack Obama's previous record of 69.3 million ballots in 2008.

According to results on November 6, 2024, former President Donald Trump had received 277 Electoral College votes in the race to become the next President of the United States, securing him the presidency. With all states counted, Trump received a total of 312 electoral votes.

Candidates need 270 votes to become the next President of the United States.

Since 1964, voter turnout rates in U.S. presidential elections have generally fluctuated across all age groups, falling to a national low in 1996, before rising again in the past two decades. Since 1988, there has been a direct correlation with voter participation and age, as people become more likely to vote as they get older. Participation among eligible voters under the age of 25 is the lowest of all age groups, and in the 1996 and 2000 elections, fewer than one third of eligible voters under the age of 25 participated, compared with more than two thirds of voters over 65 years.

In U.S. presidential elections since 1964, voters in the 18 to 24 age bracket have traditionally had the lowest turnout rates among all ethnicities. From 1964 until 1996, white voters in this age bracket had the highest turnout rates of the four major ethnic groups in the U.S., particularly those of non-Hispanic origin. However participation was highest among young Black voters in 2008 and 2012, during the elections where Barack Obama, the U.S.' first African-American major party candidate, was nominated. Young Asian American and Hispanic voters generally have the lowest turnout rates, and were frequently below half of the overall 18 to 24 turnout before the 2000s.

United States presidential elections are quadrennial elections that decide who will be the President and Vice President of the United States for the next four years. Voter turnout has ranged between 54 and 70 percent since 1964, with white voters having the highest voter turnout rate (particularly when those of Hispanic descent are excluded). In recent decades, turnout among black voters has got much closer to the national average, and in 2008 and 2012, the turnout among black voters was higher than the national average, exceeded only by non-Hispanic white voters; this has been attributed to Barack Obama's nomination as the Democratic nominee in these years, where he was the first African American candidate to run as a major party's nominee. Turnout among Asian and Hispanic voters is much lower than the national average, and turnout has even been below half of the national average in some elections. This has been attributed to a variety of factors, such as the absence of voting tradition in some communities or families, the concentration of Asian and Hispanic communities in urban (non-swing) areas, and a disproportionate number of young people (who are less likely to vote).

The U.S. presidential election has been held in North Carolina on 57 occasions; this was every election except the first, in 1789, and the 1864 election, when North Carolina was a member of the Confederate States of America. North Carolina has awarded all (or at least a majority) of its electoral votes to the nationwide winning candidate in 38 elections, giving a success rate of 67 percent. The "Tar Heel State" has voted for the Democratic nominee in thirty elections, and the Republican nominee in 15; although eleven of these have come in the past 14 elections. Despite North Carolina voting red in most elections since 1968, it has often been seen as a battleground state, with the four most recent popular votes split by fewer than four points. In the 2020 election, North Carolina was on of the closest results nationwide, with Donald Trump winning the popular vote by a one percent margin. North Carolinians in office Two U.S. presidents were born in North Carolina; the first was James K. Polk, who spent the first seven years of his life in the Waxhaws region, and the second was Andrew Johnson, who was born and raised in Raleigh. Coincidentally, both these men would move to Tennessee, where they would establish political careers before ascending to the presidency. Polk also failed to win the election in his state of birth, while Johnson's election (as Abraham Lincoln's vice presidential nominee) was not contested there. Electoral votes Between 1812 and 1840, North Carolina had 15 electoral votes, however this then decreased to just nine votes by the Reconstruction era, as higher net migration rates in other states saw the saw North Carolina's population grow more slowly than the national average. The allocation then rose to 13 votes in the 1930s, and remained at 13 or 14 until 2004, when it then returned to 15. Historically, the majority of North Carolinians have lived in rural areas, although recent decades have seen the population shift to be come more urban or suburban, and grow due to an influx of migrants from Latin America and South or Southeast Asia. In the 2024 election, North Carolina is expected to gain another electoral vote as its population grows faster than the national average, and higher birth rates among urban and foreign-born populations is likely to increase the Democratic Party's voter base in the state.

Texas has taken part in 42 U.S presidential elections between 1848 and 2020, correctly voting for the overall winner on 24 occasions, giving a success rate of 57 percent. Texas has voted for the Democratic nominee in 27 elections, and the Republican nominee in 15 elections, although eleven of these 15 results make up Texas' current voting streak. Texas has been considered a Republican stronghold for the past two decades (after being heavily contested throughout the 80s and 90s), but was viewed as a battleground state going into the 2020 election; however, Donald Trump surprised many by winning the popular vote by a relatively comfortable, six percent margin. Texan presidents Two U.S. presidents have been born in Texas; the first was Dwight D. Eisenhower, who was born in Denison (the family moved to Kansas while he was an infant, which he considered his home state); the second was Lyndon B. Johnson (LBJ), who was born, raised and died in Stonewall, Texas. Two other presidents, George H. W. Bush and George W. Bush, also considered themselves Texans, having held public office there and resided there for the majority of their lives, although both were born in other states. All four of these presidents won the popular vote in Texas in each election, and LBJ's inclusion as John F. Kennedy's running mate in the 1960 was seen as a deciding factor in helping Kennedy win in the south. No other major party candidate has come from the Lone Star State, although the Independent and Reform Party candidate, Ross Perot, who was influential in the 1992 and 1996 elections, came from Texarkana. Demographic changes Texas' allocation of electoral votes has consistently grown throughout its history, and recent elections, Texas has had the second-most electoral votes of any state (behind California), with 38 votes. This number is expected to increase to 42 votes in the 2024 election, as Texas' birth rate and positive migration rate are both higher than the national average. Much of this demographic change is due to the growth of the Hispanic community in Texas, which is also seen as the reason for the Democratic Party's growing popularity in the state.

Pennsylvania has taken part in every U.S. presidential election, correctly voting for the nationwide winner in 47 out of 59 elections, giving a success rate of eighty percent. Since 1828, Pennsylvania has voted for the Democratic nominee in twenty elections, and the Republican Party's nominee in 26 elections (including all but one elections from 1860 to 1932). The only time where Pennsylvania did not vote for a major party candidate was in 1912, where it granted its 38 electoral votes to Theodore Roosevelt, who was running as the candidate of the newly-formed Progressive Party. After voting Democrat in all elections between 1992 and 2012, Pennsylvania voted red in 2016, as Donald Trump defeated Hillary Clinton by less than one percent of the popular vote. In 2020, Joe Biden flipped Pennsylvania blue again by 1.2 percent of the popular vote. Pennsylvania proved to be the decisive state in the week following the 2020 election, as the returns of mail in ballots gradually swung the result in Biden's favor, following a strong early showing from Donald Trump; the development of these results eventually signaled that Joe Biden had (provisionally) obtained the 270 electoral votes needed to win the election, leading all major news outlets to declare him the winner.

Pennsylvanians in office Prior to the 2020 election, James Buchanan is the only U.S. president to have been born in the Keystone State. Several other major party nominees have been born in Pennsylvania, including three of the losing candidates who ran between 1864 and 1884. Although he is more commonly associated with Delaware, Joe Biden's victory in 2020 made him the the second U.S. president to have been born in Pennsylvania, having spent the first ten years of his life in Scranton. Biden will, most likely, want to be remembered more favorably than Buchanan, who is consistently ranked as the worst U.S. president in history. Weakening influence From 1804 until 1964, Pennsylvania had the second-highest allocation of electoral votes in every U.S. presidential election (usually behind New York), with the number peaking at 38 electoral votes between 1912 and 1928. Since then, Pennsylvania's allocation of electoral votes has fallen gradually, and is expected to be just 19 votes in the 2024 election; half of what it was one century previously. The reason for this drop in electoral votes is due Pennsylvanians migrating to other parts of the country, while growing populations across the border and Midwestern states has seen a shift in population distribution across the country. Nonetheless, with 19 electoral votes, Pennsylvania is likely to remain one of the most valuable battleground states in future elections.

In U.S. presidential elections since 1964, voter turnout among male and female voters has changed gradually but significantly, with women consistently voting at a higher rate than men since the 1980 election. 67 percent of eligible female voters took part in the 1964 election, compared to 72 percent of male voters. This difference has been reversed in recent elections, where the share of women who voted has been larger than the share of men by around four percent since 2004.

According to exit polling in ten key states of the 2024 presidential election in the United States, 63 percent of Protestant Christian voters reported voting for Donald Trump. In comparison, only 22 percent of Jewish voters reported voting for Trump.

The state of West Virginia was established in 1863, and has taken part in all U.S. presidential elections between 1864 and 2016. In these forty elections, West Virginia has awarded the majority of its electoral votes to the nationwide winner 29 times, giving a success rate of 73, percent. West Virginia has always been won by a major party candidate, with the state voting for the Republican and Democratic nominees twenty times each. There were, however, two occasions where faithless electors voted for a candidate who did not win the popular vote in the Mountain State; these were in 1912, when one elector cast a ballot for Woodrow Wilson, and in 1988, where one elector protested the lack of accountability for electors in the electoral college system by reversing the positions of the presidential and vice presidential nominees. West Virginia has gone through phases of aligning itself with major parties, voting mostly for the Republican nominee between 1896 and 1928, and then siding mostly with Democratic nominees between 1932 and 1996. Between 2000 and 2016, however, Republican winning margins grew with each election, and in the 2016 election, Donald Trump received over two thirds of the popular vote. In the 2020 election, West Virginia proved to be a comfortable victory for Donald Trump, who won the popular vote by a margin of almost forty percent.

As of 2020, no U.S. president has ever been born in West Virginia (including the eight born in Virginia before West Virginia seceded in 1863). The only major party candidate to have come from West Virginia was John W. Davis in 1924, who actually lost the popular vote in his home state by a five percent margin. West Virginia's allocation of electoral votes grew steadily in the late 19th century, and peaked at eight votes between the 1912 and 1960 elections. However, the population has fallen from over two million people in 1950 to just 1.8 million people in 2020, and its allocation of electoral votes has also decreased during this time. As West Virginia's population continues to fall, its allocation of electoral votes is expected to drop to just four in the 2024 election, which would be the lowest in the state's history.

Illinois has taken part in 51 U.S. presidential elections since 1820, and has correctly voted for the winning candidate on 42 occasions, giving a success rate of 82 percent. The Prairie State has always voted for a major party candidate, choosing the Democratic-Republican Party's nominees in its first two elections, before voting for the Democratic Party's candidate 25 times, and the Republican candidate 24 times since 1832. After joining the union in 1818, Illinois has generally voted for each party in phases, and has been considered a safe Democrat state for the past three decades. In the 2020 election, the Democratic nominee, Joe Biden, won the popular vote in Illinois by a 17 percent margin. The Land of Lincoln Since 1955, Illinois' state slogan has been "The Land of Lincoln", as a tribute to President Abraham Lincoln. Lincoln was born in Kentucky, but moved to Illinois in his early 20s, where he emerged as a prominent politician and lawyer before ascending to the presidency in 1861. Lincoln is not the only U.S. President to have resided in Illinois when taking office; his successor, Ulysses S. Grant, was an official Illinois resident when he took office in 1869 (although he had not lived there since before the Civil War), and Barack Obama began his legal career in Chicago in the 1980s, before eventually becoming a State Senator in 1997, and a U.S. Senator from Illinois in 2005. Ronald Reagan is the only president to have been born in Illinois, although he moved to California in his twenties and held public office there. A number of losing candidates also resided in or were born in Illinois, including 2016 Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton, who was born in Chicago. Electoral votes In the nineteenth century, Illinois' population boomed as Chicago grew to be one of the largest and most industrialized cities on the continent, and the early twentieth century saw over half a million black Americans move to Illinois during the Great Migration. With this population boom, Illinois' designation of electoral votes grew from just three in the 1820s, to 29 between 1912 and 1940; this was the third highest in the country after New York and Pennsylvania. Since the Second World War, changes in the U.S. population distribution has meant that Illinois' share of electoral votes has gradually decreased, standing at twenty votes since 2012, and expected to drop to 18 in the 2024 election.

In the 2020 presidential election, about 55 percent of voters aged between 18 and 29 participated in the election -- a significant increase from the previous election year, when about 44 percent of youths voted in the election. The highest youth turnout rate was in 1972, when 55.4 percent of voters between the ages of 18 and 29 voted in the election.

The state of Michigan has taken part in 47 U.S. presidential elections, correctly voting for the nationwide winner in 37 of these, giving a success rate of 79 percent. Throughout most of the nineteenth century, Michigan generally voted for the Republican Party's nominee, although it has regularly swung between the two major parties since the 1930s. The only time when the Wolverine State voted for a third party candidate was in the 1912 election, when former President Theodore Roosevelt carried Michigan while running as the Progressive Party's nominee. While born in Nebraska, Gerald R. Ford was raised, studied and represented Michigan in Congress, before he became the only Michiganian to ascend to the presidency following Richard Nixon's resignation in 1974.

Swing state After voting for the Democratic candidate in all elections from 1992 until 2012, the Republican nominee Donald Trump carried the state in the 2016 election, with just a 0.23 percent larger share of the popular votes than Hillary Clinton. Trump's victory has been attributed to a large number of working class voters who traditionally voted Democrat, but had become disenfranchised with the party during the Obama presidency. In the 2020 election, however, increased turnout among black voters and stronger appeal to unionized workers saw Joe Biden swing Michigan blue again, with a seven percent margin in the popular vote.

Michigan demographics Michigan was designated three electoral votes in the 1836 election (despite not being admitted to the union until 1837), and over the next 130 years its allocation grew to 21 votes. This came as a result of Michigan's significant population growth and positive net migration rate in mid-1900s, which was largely due to the expansion of the automotive industry in the Detroit area. Since the 1970s, job automation and increased competition have substantially weakened the industry's employment opportunities; therefore Michigan's population growth has slowed significantly, and its number of electoral votes has also decreased to just 16. This number is expected to drop to 15 in the 2024 election.

Since 1852, the U.S. presidential election has been contested in California 44 times, with Californians successfully voting for the winning candidate on 35 occasions, giving an overall success rate of 80 percent. California has awarded the majority of its electoral votes to the Republican Party in 23 elections, the Democratic Party in 20 elections, and the only year when a third-party candidate won a majority was in 1912, where Theodore Roosevelt won the state while campaigning as the Progressive Party's nominee. Between 1952 and 1988, there was only one election that was not won by the Republican candidate, while all elections since 1992 have been won by the Democratic nominee. In the 2024 election, Oakland-born Vice President Kamala Harris ran as the Democratic nominee, and comfortably won her home state but lost the nationwide vote. Californian under-representation? California was admitted to the union in 1850, and was granted just four electoral votes in its first three presidential elections. In the past two centuries, California's population has grown rapidly, largely due to a positive net migration rate from within the U.S. and abroad. Today, it has the highest population of any state in the U.S, with almost forty million people, and has therefore been designated 54 electoral votes; the most of any state. Although California has been allocated around ten percent of the total electoral votes on offer nationwide, The Golden State is home to roughly twelve percent of the total U.S. population, therefore a number closer to 62 electoral votes would be more proportional to the U.S. population distribution. Despite this, California's total allocation was reduced to 54 in the 2024 election. Native Californians As of 2020, Richard Nixon is the only native Californian to have been elected to the presidency, having won the election in 1968 and 1972. California also voted for Nixon in the 1960 election, although John F. Kennedy was the overall winner. Two other U.S. Presidents had declared California as their home state; they were Herbert Hoover, who won the 1928 election, and Ronald Reagan, who won in 1980 and 1984 respectively. While states generally support candidates who were born or reside there, Californian candidates have failed to carry their home state or state of birth in four U.S. presidential elections, these were; John C. Frémont in 1854 (who actually came third in California), Herbert Hoover in 1932, and Adlai Stevenson in both the 1952 and 1956 elections.

Kentucky has taken part in every U.S. presidential election excluding the first in 1789 (when it was a part of Virginia), and has voted for the overall winner in 36 out of 58 elections, giving a success rate 62 percent. Throughout its history, Kentucky has generally voted for the more conservative option of the major party candidates; siding primarily with the Democrats from the 1850s until the 1950s, before switching to the Republicans in recent decades (although there were some exceptions to these trends). The only times where Kentucky did not vote for a major party nominee were in 1792, where the unaffiliated George Washington won an uncontested re-election, and in 1860, where it voted for the Constitutional Union's nominee in the lead-up to the American Civil War. Kentucky has been considered a "red state" since the 1960s, although it did support Jimmy Carter in 1976, and Clinton in 1992 and 1996, however Republicans have won at least 56 percent of the popular vote in the past five elections. In both the 2016 and 2020 elections, Donald Trump won the state with a 62 percent share of the popular vote.

Kentuckian presidential candidates

Only one U.S. president has ever been born in Kentucky; that was Abraham Lincoln, who was born and spent the first seven years of his life in the Bluegrass State. As mentioned previously, Lincoln did not carry his birth state in the 1860 election (or 1864 election), nor did his fellow Kentuckian and Southern Democratic nominee, Vice President John C. Breckenridge. The only Kentuckian to have carried their home state was Henry Clay, who was a nationwide runner-up in the 1824, 1832 and 1844 elections. The 1864 election was the last time where a major party candidate was born or resided in Kentucky.

Electoral votes

Kentucky's share of electoral votes has fluctuated during its history, peaking at 15 votes in the elections between 1832 and 1840, but slowly decreasing from 13 votes in 1928, to just eight since 1992. Kentucky is expected to maintain its eight votes going into the 2024 election, based on the most recent population projections.

Florida was admitted to the union in 1845, and has taken part in 43 U.S. presidential elections since this time. In these 43 elections, Florida has voted for the overall winner thirty times, giving a success rate of seventy percent. Since 1928, Florida has voted for the winning candidate in 21 out of 24 elections, and is considered a key battleground state in modern elections. Florida has voted for a major party nominee in every election, backing the Republican nominee 17 times, Democrat 25 times, and the only time it did not vote Republican or Democrat was in 1848 when it voted for the Whig Party's Zachary Taylor. Florida did not take part in the 1864 election due to its secession from the Union in the American Civil War, and like most other southern states it primarily voted Democrat until the mid-twentieth century, when it then started leaning more Republican. No U.S. President has ever been born in Florida, or resided there when taking office; although Donald Trump declared himself a resident of Florida in 2019, therefore making it his official home state during the 2020 election. The 2020 election in Florida proved to be a surprise for many, as Donald Trump won the popular vote by a 3.4 percent margin; most polls had favored Biden going into election day, however intensive campaigning and increased Republican support among Cuban Americans has been cited as the reason for Trump's victory in Florida.

Florida's importance

In 1920, Florida's population was fewer than one million people; however it has grown drastically in the past century to almost 22 million people, making Florida the third most populous state in the country. With this population boom, Florida's allocation of electoral votes has surged, from just six in the 1920s, to 29 in recent elections (this is expected to increase to 31 votes in the 2024 election). Unlike the other most populous states, such as California and New York, which are considered safe Democratic states, or Texas, which is considered a safe Republican state, presidential elections in Florida are much more unpredictable. Florida is a southern state, and its majority-white, rural and suburban districts tend to vote in favor of the Republican Party (Republicans have also dominated state elections in recent decades), although, Florida is also home to substantial Hispanic population, and is a popular destination for young workers in the tourism sector and retirees from across the U.S., with these groups considered more likely to vote Democrat. However, the discrepancy between voters of Cuban (58 percent voted Republican) and Puerto Rican (66 percent voted Democrat) origin in the 2020 election shows that these traditional attitudes towards Hispanic voters may need to be re-evaluated.

2000 controversy The 2000 U.S. presidential election is one of the most famous and controversial elections in U.S. history, due to the results from Florida. The election was contested by the Republican Party's George W. Bush and the Democratic Party's Al Gore; by the end of election day, it became clear that Florida's 25 electoral votes would decide the outcome, as neither candidate had surpassed the 270 vote margin needed to win nationwide. While Florida's early results showed Bush in the lead, Gore's share of the results in urban areas then brought their totals close enough to trigger a recount; after a month of recounts and legal proceedings, Bush was eventually declared the winner of Florida by a margin of 537 popular votes (or 0.009 percent). Although Gore did win a plurality of the votes nationwide, Bush had won 271 electoral votes overall, and was named the 43rd President of the United States; this was just one of five elections where the candidate with the most popular votes did not win the election. In the six most recent U.S. presidential elections in Florida, the difference in the share of popular votes between the Republican and Democratic candidates has been just two percent on average.