ABSTRACT The main purpose of this work is to conduct a systematic literature review regarding inflation expectations, their determinants, and their implications for policy making in Latin America. The analysis shows the importance of inflation expectations in the countries that use an inflation targeting scheme, while also supporting the idea that inflation expectations can affect other sectors of the economy. As for the determinants of expectations, the findings show the importance of past iterations of expectations, supporting the idea that the inflation expectations are heavily determined by themselves. The amount of research being conducted in this field is not comprehensive. This is even more evident in the Latin American region since it is a recent research field with a meager number of publications, deeming our study useful for future research. The classification process makes it easier to know the most common variables and econometric methods used to find the determinants of inflation expectations and their impact on other economic variables.

The inflation rate in the United States is expected to decrease to 2.1 percent by 2029. 2022 saw a year of exceptionally high inflation, reaching eight percent for the year. The data represents U.S. city averages. The base period was 1982-84. In economics, the inflation rate is a measurement of inflation, the rate of increase of a price index (in this case: consumer price index). It is the percentage rate of change in prices level over time. The rate of decrease in the purchasing power of money is approximately equal. According to the forecast, prices will increase by 2.9 percent in 2024. The annual inflation rate for previous years can be found here and the consumer price index for all urban consumers here. The monthly inflation rate for the United States can also be accessed here. Inflation in the U.S.Inflation is a term used to describe a general rise in the price of goods and services in an economy over a given period of time. Inflation in the United States is calculated using the consumer price index (CPI). The consumer price index is a measure of change in the price level of a preselected market basket of consumer goods and services purchased by households. This forecast of U.S. inflation was prepared by the International Monetary Fund. They project that inflation will stay higher than average throughout 2023, followed by a decrease to around roughly two percent annual rise in the general level of prices until 2028. Considering the annual inflation rate in the United States in 2021, a two percent inflation rate is a very moderate projection. The 2022 spike in inflation in the United States and worldwide is due to a variety of factors that have put constraints on various aspects of the economy. These factors include COVID-19 pandemic spending and supply-chain constraints, disruptions due to the war in Ukraine, and pandemic related changes in the labor force. Although the moderate inflation of prices between two and three percent is considered normal in a modern economy, countries’ central banks try to prevent severe inflation and deflation to keep the growth of prices to a minimum. Severe inflation is considered dangerous to a country’s economy because it can rapidly diminish the population’s purchasing power and thus damage the GDP .

Since early 2021, inflation has consistently exceeded the Federal Reserve’s target of 2 percent. Using a combination of data, economic theory, and narrative information around historical events, we empirically assess what has caused persistently elevated inflation. Our estimates suggest that both aggregate demand and supply factors, including supply chain disruptions, have contributed significantly to high inflation.

This dataset provides a comprehensive collection of monthly U.S. macroeconomic indicators spanning January 2000 to December 2024.

It was designed specifically for machine learning-based inflation forecasting and includes key economic factors historically associated with inflation trends:

• Consumer Price Index (CPI) & Inflation Rate
• Unemployment Rate
• Federal Funds Rate
• M2 Money Supply
• Crude Oil Prices (WTI)
• Producer Price Index (PPI)

Primary Goal: Build predictive models to forecast year-over-year inflation rates

Possible Use Cases:

• Forecasting inflation using machine learning models like XGBoost, Random Forest, or LSTM.
• Studying relationships between macroeconomic factors and inflationary pressure.
• Comparing classical econometric approaches with modern AI-based forecasting techniques.

Structure: Each CSV contains a Date column and corresponding metric values, making it easy to merge and align data for analysis.

License: MIT License – free to use for research and educational purposes.

The UK inflation rate was 3.8 percent in September 2025, unchanged from the previous two months, and the fastest rate of inflation since January 2024. Between September 2022 and March 2023, the UK experienced seven months of double-digit inflation, which peaked at 11.1 percent in October 2022. Due to this long period of high inflation, UK consumer prices have increased by over 20 percent in the last three years. As of the most recent month, prices were rising fastest in the education sector, at 7.5 percent, with prices increasing at the slowest rate in the clothing and footwear sector. The Cost of Living Crisis High inflation is one of the main factors behind the ongoing Cost of Living Crisis in the UK, which, despite subsiding somewhat in 2024, is still impacting households going into 2025. In December 2024, for example, 56 percent of UK households reported their cost of living was increasing compared with the previous month, up from 45 percent in July, but far lower than at the height of the crisis in 2022. After global energy prices spiraled that year, the UK's energy price cap increased substantially. The cap, which limits what suppliers can charge consumers, reached 3,549 British pounds per year in October 2022, compared with 1,277 pounds a year earlier. Along with soaring food costs, high-energy bills have hit UK households hard, especially lower income ones that spend more of their earnings on housing costs. As a result of these factors, UK households experienced their biggest fall in living standards in decades in 2022/23. Global inflation crisis causes rapid surge in prices The UK's high inflation, and cost of living crisis in 2022 had its origins in the COVID-19 pandemic. Following the initial waves of the virus, global supply chains struggled to meet the renewed demand for goods and services. Food and energy prices, which were already high, increased further in 2022. Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 brought an end to the era of cheap gas flowing to European markets from Russia. The war also disrupted global food markets, as both Russia and Ukraine are major exporters of cereal crops. As a result of these factors, inflation surged across Europe and in other parts of the world, but typically declined in 2023, and approached more usual levels by 2024.

Context

Happiness and well-being are essential indicators of societal progress, often influenced by economic conditions such as GDP and inflation. This dataset combines data from the World Happiness Index (WHI) and inflation metrics to explore the relationship between economic stability and happiness levels across 148 countries from 2015 to 2023. By analyzing key economic indicators alongside social well-being factors, this dataset provides insights into global prosperity trends.

Content

This dataset is provided in CSV format and includes 16 columns, covering both happiness-related features and economic indicators such as GDP per capita, inflation rates, and corruption perception. The main columns include:

Happiness Score & Rank (World Happiness Index ranking per country) Economic Indicators (GDP per capita, inflation metrics) Social Factors (Freedom, Social Support, Generosity) Geographical Information (Country & Continent)

Acknowledgements

The dataset is created using publicly available data from World Happiness Report, Gallup World Poll, and the World Bank. It has been structured for research, machine learning, and policy analysis purposes.

Inspiration

How do economic factors like inflation, GDP, and corruption affect happiness? Can we predict a country's happiness score based on economic conditions? This dataset allows you to analyze these relationships and build models to predict well-being trends worldwide.

In 2024, the annual inflation rate for the United Kingdom was 2.5 percent, with the average rate for 2025 predicted to rise to 3.2 percent, revised upwards from an earlier prediction of 2.6 percent. The UK has only recently recovered from a period of elevated inflation, which saw the CPI rate reach 9.1 percent in 2022, and 7.3 percent in 2023. Despite an uptick in inflation expected in 2025, the inflation rate is expected to fall to 2.1 percent in 2026, and two percent between 2027 and 2029. UK inflation crisis Between 2021 and 2023, inflation surged in the UK, reaching a 41-year-high of 11.1 percent in October 2022. Although inflation fell to more usual levels by 2024, prices in the UK had already increased by over 20 percent relative to the start of the crisis. The two main drivers of price increases during this time were food and energy inflation, two of the main spending areas of UK households. Although food and energy prices came down quite sharply in 2023, underlying core inflation, which measures prices rises without food and energy, remained slightly above the headline inflation rate throughout 2024, suggesting some aspects of inflation had become embedded in the UK economy. Inflation rises across in the world in 2022 The UK was not alone in suffering from runaway inflation over the last few years. From late 2021 onwards, various factors converged to encourage a global acceleration of prices, leading to the ongoing inflation crisis. Blocked-up supply chains were one of the main factors as the world emerged from the COVID-19 pandemic. This was followed by energy and food inflation skyrocketing after Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Central bank interest rates were raised globally in response to the problem, possibly putting an end to the era of cheap money that has defined monetary policy since the financial crash of 2008.

The enduring discourse regarding the effectiveness of interest rate policy in mitigating inflation within developing economies is characterized by the interplay of structural and supply-side determinants. Moreover, extant academic literature fails to resolve the direction of causality between inflation and interest rates. Nevertheless, the prevalent adoption of interest rate-based monetary policies in numerous developing economies raises a fundamental inquiry: What motivates central banks in these nations to consistently espouse this strategy? To address this inquiry, our study leverages wavelet transformation to dissect interest rate and inflation data across a spectrum of frequency scales. This innovative methodology paves the way for a meticulous exploration of the intricate causal interplay between these pivotal macroeconomic variables for twenty-two developing economies using monthly data from 1992 to 2022. Traditional literature on causality tends to focus on short- and long-run timescales, yet our study posits that numerous uncharted time and frequency scales exist between these extremes. These intermediate scales may wield substantial influence over the causal relationship and its direction. Our research thus extends the boundaries of existing causality literature and presents fresh insights into the complexities of monetary policy in developing economies. Traditional wisdom suggests that central banks should raise interest rates to combat inflation. However, our study uncovers a contrasting reality in developing economies. It demonstrates a positive causal link between the policy rate and inflation, where an increase in the central bank’s interest rates leads to an upsurge in price levels. Paradoxically, in response to escalating prices, the central bank continues to heighten the policy rate, thereby perpetuating this cyclical pattern. Given this observed positive causal relationship in developing economies, central banks must explore structural and supply-side factors to break this cycle and regain control over inflation.

ABSTRACT This paper reports an empirical research on the dynamics of inflation of seventeen industrial sectors of the Brazilian economy between 1996 and 2011. From a theoretical discussion of the relationship between inflation and aggregate demand in traditional economic approaches (the New Consensus Model), Post-Keynesian and Distributive Conflict, we sought evidence of excess demand inflation and cost pressures in these sectors. The time series used were the Producer Price Index for Comprehensive Source (IPA-OG), the degree of Installed Capacity Utilization (both from FGV), the International Commodities Index (IFS/IMF), the interest rate and the nominal exchange rate (both from Brazilian Central Bank - BCB). The methodology was based on ADL Model (Autoregressive Distributed Lags). The results pointed to the absence of a strong and systematic relationship between inflation and aggregate demand, and to evidences of cost pressures, particularly international prices and the exchange of commodities as determinants of inflation dynamics of the sectors and period analyzed.

As of April 2025, the inflation rate in the European Union was 2.4 percent, with prices rising fastest in Romania, which had an inflation rate of 4.9 percent. By contrast, both France and Cyprus saw low inflation rates during the same period, with France having the lowest inflation rate in the EU during this month. The rate of inflation in the EU in the October 2022 was higher than at any other time, with the peak prior to 2021 recorded in July 2008 when prices were growing by 4.4 percent year-on-year. Before the recent rises in inflation, price rises in the EU had been kept at relatively low levels, with the inflation rate remaining below three percent between January 2012 and August 2021. Rapid recovery and energy costs driving inflation The reopening of the European economy in 2021 following the sudden shock of COVID-19 in 2020 is behind many of the factors that have caused prices to rise so quickly in 2022. Global supply chains have not yet recovered from production issues, travel restrictions, and workforce problems brought about by the pandemic. Rising energy costs have only served to exacerbate supply problems, particularly with regard to the transport sector, which had the highest inflation rate of any sector in the EU in December 2021. High inflation rates mirrored in the U.S. The high inflation rates seen in Europe have been reflected in other parts of the world. In the United States, for example, the consumer price index reached a 40-year-high of seven percent in December 2021, influenced by many of the same factors driving European inflation. Nevertheless, it is hoped that once these supply chain issues ease, inflation levels will start to fall throughout the course of 2022.

This dataset contains homomorphically encrypted data derived from the Agra Fintech World Happiness Index and Inflation Dataset. It is specifically prepared for use in data-unaware learning processes, enabling privacy-preserving analysis without exposing the original data.

About Original Dataset - Context

Happiness and well-being are essential indicators of societal progress, often influenced by economic conditions such as GDP and inflation. This dataset combines data from the World Happiness Index (WHI) and inflation metrics to explore the relationship between economic stability and happiness levels across 148 countries from 2015 to 2023. By analyzing key economic indicators alongside social well-being factors, this dataset provides insights into global prosperity trends.

• Content

This dataset is provided in CSV format and includes 16 columns, covering both happiness-related features and economic indicators such as GDP per capita, inflation rates, and corruption perception. The main columns include:

Happiness Score & Rank (World Happiness Index ranking per country) Economic Indicators (GDP per capita, inflation metrics) Social Factors (Freedom, Social Support, Generosity) Geographical Information (Country & Continent)

• Acknowledgements

The dataset is created using publicly available data from World Happiness Report, Gallup World Poll, and the World Bank. It has been structured for research, machine learning, and policy analysis purposes.

• Inspiration

How do economic factors like inflation, GDP, and corruption affect happiness? Can we predict a country's happiness score based on economic conditions? This dataset allows you to analyze these relationships and build models to predict well-being trends worldwide.

Supplementary material (Figures and Tables) of the paper published in Acta Oeconomica ABSTRACT Measurement of the performances of inflation targeting (IT) frameworks has been of interest to researchers ever since IT began to be implemented as a monetary policy strategy. The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the impact of domestic and international determinants on success in achieving inflation targets of the selected European economies. Our methodological framework is based on the application of a non-stationary discrete choice model. For this research, four European economies are considered: Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Serbia. Their results regarding IT policy can provide a useful benchmark for similar economies that are either planning to adopt the same monetary policy framework or have begun to apply it recently. Our findings indicate that IT success is primarily under the control of monetary policymakers by key policy rate mechanism, but that the impact of additional domestic and international factors that are not easily managed by the central bank like budget balance, exchange rate, growth rate, current account balance, labor cost growth, loans, Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices, inflation, and GDP gap of the Eurozone, can be also significant. Consequently, monetary policymakers need to take into account a wide range of inflation factors, including foreign spillover effects, so that tools for their neutralization can be helpful in achieving the targeted goals.

Is inflation (still) a global phenomenon? We study the international co-movement of inflation based on a dynamic factor model and in a sample spanning up to 56 countries during the 1960-2023 period. Over the entire period, a first global factor explains approximately 58% of the variation in headline inflation across all countries and over 72% in OECD economies. The explanatory power of global inflation is equally high in a shorter sample spanning the time since 2000. Core inflation is also remarkably global, with 53% of its variation attributable to a first global factor. The explanatory power of a second global factor is lower, except for select emerging economies. Variables such as a broad dollar index, the US federal funds rate, and a measure of commodity prices positively correlate with the first global factor. This global factor is also correlated with US inflation during the 70s, 80s, the GFC, and COVID. However, it lags these variables during the post-COVID period. Country-level integration in global value chains accounts for a significant proportion of the share of both local headline and core inflation dynamics explained by global factors.

United States BIE: Productivity Effect on Price: Moderate Upward Influence data was reported at 16.668 % in Nov 2023. This records a decrease from the previous number of 17.710 % for Aug 2023. United States BIE: Productivity Effect on Price: Moderate Upward Influence data is updated quarterly, averaging 15.466 % from Nov 2011 (Median) to Nov 2023, with 48 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 22.200 % in Nov 2014 and a record low of 10.116 % in Nov 2020. United States BIE: Productivity Effect on Price: Moderate Upward Influence data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.I122: Business Inflation Expectations Survey: Price Change. Business Inflation Expectations Survey Questionnaire: Projecting ahead over the next 12 months, how do you think the following five common influences will affect the prices of your products and/or services?

In September 2025, the UK inflation rate for goods was 2.9 percent and 4.7 percent for services. Prices for goods accelerated significantly, sharply between 2021 and 2022, before falling in 2023. By comparison, prices for services initially grew at a more moderate rate but have also not fallen as quickly. The overall CPI inflation rate for the UK reached a recent high of 11.1 percent in October 2022 and remained in double figures until April 2023, when it fell to 8.7 percent. As of this month, the UK's inflation rate was 3.6 percent, up from 3.4 percent in the previous month. Sectors driving high inflation In late 2024, communication was the sector with the highest inflation rate, with prices increasing by 6.1 percent as of December 2024. During the recent period of high inflation that eased in 2023, food and energy prices were particular high, with housing and energy inflation far higher than in any other sector, peaking at 26.6 percent towards the end of 2022. High food and energy prices since 2021 have been one of the main causes of the cost of living crisis in the UK, especially for low-income households that spend a higher share of their income on these categories. This is likely one of the factors driving increasing food bank usage in the UK, which saw approximately 3.12 million people use a food bank in 2023/24, compared with 1.9 million just before the COVID-19 pandemic. The global inflation crisis The UK has not been alone in suffering rapid price increases since 2021. After the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, a series of economic and geopolitical shocks had a dramatic impact on the global economy. A global supply chain crisis failed to meet rising demand in 2021, leading to the beginning of an Inflation Crisis, which was only exacerbated by Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. The war directly influenced the prices of food and energy, as both countries were major exporters of important crops. European imports of hydrocarbons from Russia were also steadily reduced throughout 2022 and 2023, resulting in higher energy prices throughout the year.

United States BIE: Sales Level Effect on Price: Strong Downward Influence data was reported at 5.350 % in Nov 2023. This records an increase from the previous number of 2.872 % for Aug 2023. United States BIE: Sales Level Effect on Price: Strong Downward Influence data is updated quarterly, averaging 2.161 % from Nov 2011 (Median) to Nov 2023, with 48 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 10.554 % in Aug 2020 and a record low of 0.256 % in May 2014. United States BIE: Sales Level Effect on Price: Strong Downward Influence data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.I122: Business Inflation Expectations Survey: Price Change. Business Inflation Expectations Survey Questionnaire: Projecting ahead over the next 12 months, how do you think the following five common influences will affect the prices of your products and/or services?

Explore the journey of Pakistan's inflation from 1960 to 2024. This dataset provides a comprehensive overview of the economic landscape, allowing users to delve into the factors influencing inflation rates over the years. Sources include official government reports, economic analyses, and reputable financial institutions.

The Inflation Management Services market is experiencing robust growth, driven by increasing global inflation and the need for businesses to mitigate its impact on profitability and long-term sustainability. The market, estimated at $15 billion in 2025, is projected to exhibit a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 12% between 2025 and 2033, reaching approximately $45 billion by 2033. This expansion is fueled by several key factors, including rising energy prices, supply chain disruptions, and increased government intervention to control inflation. Businesses across various sectors, particularly those in manufacturing, retail, and finance, are actively seeking sophisticated strategies to forecast and manage inflation effectively. The increasing adoption of advanced analytics, predictive modeling, and AI-powered solutions further enhances the market's growth trajectory. Consulting firms like McKinsey & Company, Bain & Company, and Deloitte are playing a significant role in providing these services, leveraging their expertise in economic forecasting, financial modeling, and risk management. The market is segmented by service type (e.g., forecasting, hedging, pricing strategies), industry vertical, and geography. Regional growth is expected to be strongest in North America and Europe, driven by high inflation rates and a strong emphasis on corporate financial planning in these regions. While the market presents significant opportunities, challenges such as data scarcity and the complexity of accurately predicting inflation remain. The effectiveness of inflation management services is also contingent on external factors such as government policies and unexpected global events. Despite these constraints, the consistent need to protect profitability and shareholder value, along with the advancement of analytical tools, positions the inflation management services market for continued growth in the foreseeable future. The competitive landscape is characterized by a mix of large consulting firms offering comprehensive solutions and specialized firms focusing on niche areas within inflation management. The market will likely see further consolidation as firms strive to offer end-to-end solutions and expand their geographical reach.

This study examines the determinants influencing the likelihood of Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries seeking assistance from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The IMF, as a global institution, aims to promote sustainable growth and prosperity among its member countries by supporting economic strategies that foster financial stability and collaboration in monetary affairs. Utilising panel-probit regression, this study analyses data from thirty-nine SSA countries spanning from 2000 to 2022, focusing on twelve factors: Current Account Balance (CAB), inflation, corruption, General Government Net Lending and Borrowing (GGNLB), General Government Gross Debt (GGGD), Gross Domestic Product Growth (GDPG), United Nations Security Council (UNSC) involvement, regime types (Closed Autocracy, Electoral Democracy, Electoral Autocracy, Liberal Democracy) and China Loan. The results indicate that corruption and GDP growth rate have the most significant influence on the likelihood of SSA countries seeking IMF assistance. Conversely, factors such as CAB, UNSC involvement, LD and inflation show inconsequential effects. Notable, countries like Sudan, Burundi, and Guinea consistently rank high in seeking IMF assistance over various time frames within the observed period. Sudan emerges with a probability of more than 44% in seeking IMF assistance, holding the highest ranking. Study emphasises the importance of understanding SSA region rankings and the variability of variables for policymakers, investors, and international organisations to effectively address economic challenges and provide financial assistance.

United States BIE: Margin Adjustment Effect on Price: Strong Upward Influence data was reported at 3.112 % in Nov 2023. This records an increase from the previous number of 2.516 % for Aug 2023. United States BIE: Margin Adjustment Effect on Price: Strong Upward Influence data is updated quarterly, averaging 1.641 % from Nov 2011 (Median) to Nov 2023, with 48 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 8.655 % in May 2022 and a record low of 0.000 % in Feb 2013. United States BIE: Margin Adjustment Effect on Price: Strong Upward Influence data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.I122: Business Inflation Expectations Survey: Price Change. Business Inflation Expectations Survey Questionnaire: Projecting ahead over the next 12 months, how do you think the following five common influences will affect the prices of your products and/or services?