Australia Commodity Price Index: 2021-22=100: Non Rural Component: SDR data was reported at 97.466 2021-2022=100 in Feb 2024. This records a decrease from the previous number of 98.952 2021-2022=100 for Jan 2024. Australia Commodity Price Index: 2021-22=100: Non Rural Component: SDR data is updated monthly, averaging 31.549 2021-2022=100 from Jul 1982 (Median) to Feb 2024, with 500 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 123.280 2021-2022=100 in Apr 2022 and a record low of 19.051 2021-2022=100 in Dec 1998. Australia Commodity Price Index: 2021-22=100: Non Rural Component: SDR data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Reserve Bank of Australia. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Australia – Table AU.I037: Commodity Price Index: 2021-22=100.

Australia Commodity Price Index: 2020-21=100: Bulk Commodities: Spot Prices: US$ data was reported at 134.620 2020-2021=100 in Feb 2023. This records a decrease from the previous number of 147.024 2020-2021=100 for Jan 2023. Australia Commodity Price Index: 2020-21=100: Bulk Commodities: Spot Prices: US$ data is updated monthly, averaging 80.380 2020-2021=100 from Jan 2009 (Median) to Feb 2023, with 170 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 186.055 2020-2021=100 in Mar 2022 and a record low of 35.236 2020-2021=100 in Dec 2015. Australia Commodity Price Index: 2020-21=100: Bulk Commodities: Spot Prices: US$ data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Reserve Bank of Australia. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Australia – Table AU.I038: Commodity Price Index: 2020-21=100.

The global coal price index reached 154 index points in February 2025. This was a decrease compared to the previous month, which also reflected a fall in the overall fuel energy price index. The global coal index expresses trading of Australian and South African coal, as both countries are among the largest exporters of coal worldwide. How coal profited from the 2022 gas crunch Throughout 2022, coal prices saw a significant net increase. This was largely due to greater fuel and electricity demand as countries slowly exited more stringent coronavirus restrictions, as well as fallout from the Russia-Ukraine war. As many European countries moved to curtailing gas imports from Russia, coal became the alternative to fill the power supply gap, more than doubling the annual average price index between 2021 and 2022. Main coal traders and receivers Although China makes up by far the largest share of worldwide coal production, it is among those countries consuming the majority of its extracted raw materials domestically. In terms of exports, Indonesia, the world's third-largest coal producer, trades more coal than any other country, followed by Australia and Russia. Meanwhile, Japan, South Korea, and Germany are among the leading coal importers, as these countries rely heavily on coal for electricity and heat generation.

The statistic shows the growth rate of Australia’s real GDP from 2019 to 2023, with projections up until 2029. In 2023, GDP in Australia grew by about 2.06 percent on the previous year.

The recession-proof land down under

GDP is one of the primary indicators used to gauge the state and health of a country’s economy. It is the total market value of all final goods and services that have been produced within a country in a given period of time, usually a year. GDP figures allow us to understand a country’s economy in a clear way. Real GDP, in a similar vein, is also a very useful indicator; this is a measurement that takes prices changes (inflation and deflation) into account, therefore acting as a key indicator for economic growth.

The gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate in Australia has, for sometime, been able to get a steady foothold in the somewhat shaky post-recession world, shaky, but far from catastrophic. The annual growth rate between the 2008 and 2009 financial years, for example, a time at which the world was brought to its proverbial knees, saw growth rates down under reach to 2.49 and 1.37 percent respectively on the previous years, whereas the GDP growth rate in the United States plummeted well into the minus zone. Australia, like all other capitalist nations, is at the mercy of international markets, and when the world economy takes a hit, it would be foolish to suggest it could emerge fully unscathed. However, Australia has earned some much deserved praise and attention owing to the fact that it has managed to remain recession-free for the past twenty years. This could be thanks to its abundance of raw materials, the Australian mining boom, the fact the recession came at a time of high commodity prices and, maybe most importantly, that just under a third of its exports go to China.

Overview
The March edition of Agricultural commodities contains ABARES' latest outlook for Australia's key agricultural commodities to 2021-22. The outlook will be an important focal point at the conference and underpin many presentations delivered by ABARES speakers at the conference. The report provides updated commodity forecasts, as well as articles on the EU sheep meat industry; farm performance of broadacre and dairy farms; productivity in Australia's broadacre and dairy industries; and disaggregating farm performance by size.

Key Issues Commodity forecasts
• The gross value of farm production is forecast to increase by 8.3 per cent to a record $63.8 billion in 2016-17 before easing by 3.9 per cent to a forecast $61.3 billion in 2017-18. Despite the forecast decline, the gross value of farm production in 2017-18 would be 17.3 per cent higher than the average of $52.3 billion over the five years to 2015-16 in nominal terms. • The gross value of livestock production is forecast to increase by around 4.4 per cent to $31.2 billion in 2017-18, following a forecast decrease of 2.6 per cent in 2016-17. If this forecast is realised, the gross value of livestock production in 2017-18 would be around 28 per cent higher than the average of $24.4 billion over the five years to 2015-16 in nominal terms. • The gross value of crop production is forecast to decrease by 11.3 per cent to $30 billion in 2017-18, after a forecast increase of 20.2 per cent in 2016-17. The decrease follows record production of wheat and barley in 2016-17, which resulted from favourable seasonal conditions during winter and spring. If this forecast is realised, the gross value of crop production in 2017-18 would be around 8 per cent higher than the average of $27.9 billion over the five years to 2015-16 in nominal terms. • In 2021-22 the gross value of farm production is projected to be around $59.6 billion (in 2016-17 dollars), 8.6 per cent higher than the average of $54.9 billion over the five years to 2015-16 (also in 2016-17 dollars). In 2021-22 the gross value of crop production is projected to be around $29.0 billion and the gross value of livestock production is projected to be around $30.6 billion (in 2016-17 dollars). • Export earnings from farm commodities are forecast to be around $48.7 billion in 2017-18, higher than the forecast $47.7 billion in 2016-17. • The agricultural commodities for which export earnings are forecast to rise in 2017-18 are beef and veal (up 1 per cent), wool (10 per cent), dairy products (11 per cent), sugar (10 per cent), cotton (35 per cent), wine (5 per cent), lamb (3 per cent), live feeder/slaughter cattle (4 per cent), rock lobster (6 per cent) and mutton (1 per cent). • Forecast increases in 2017-18 are expected to be partly offset by expected declines in export earnings for wheat (down 9 per cent), coarse grains (11 per cent), canola (6 per cent) and chickpeas (42 per cent). • In Australian dollar terms, export prices of wool, dairy products, sugar, wine, lamb, barley, canola, rock lobster and mutton are forecast to increase in 2017-18. Export prices for cotton and chickpeas are forecast to fall. Prices for beef and veal, wheat and live feeder/slaughter cattle are forecast to remain around the same as in 2016-17. • In 2021-22 the value of farm exports is projected to be around $46.6 billion (in 2016-17 dollars), 8 per cent higher than the average of $43.1 billion over the five years to 2015-16 in real terms. • The value of crop exports is projected to be $24.9 billion (in 2016-17 dollars) in 2021-22, 7 per cent higher than the average of $23.2 billion over the five years to 2015-16 in real terms. The value of livestock exports is projected to be $21.8 billion (in 2016-17 dollars) in 2021-22, 10 per cent higher than the average of $19.8 billion over the five years to 2015-16 in real terms. • Export earnings for fisheries products are forecast to increase by 2.3 per cent in 2017-18 to $1.5 billion, after decreasing by a forecast 3.4 per cent in 2016-17.

Economic assumptions underlying this set of commodity forecasts

In preparing this set of agricultural commodity forecasts: • World economic growth is assumed to be 3.3 per cent in 2017 and 3.4 per cent in 2018. Growth is expected to rise further to around 3.5 per cent in 2019 before declining to 3.4 per cent in 2021 and 3.3 per cent in 2022. • Economic growth in Australia is assumed to average 2.8 per cent in 2017-18. Over the medium term to 2021-22, economic growth is assumed to average around 3 per cent. • The Australian dollar is assumed to average US73 cents in 2017-18, slightly lower than the forecast average of US75 cents in 2016-17. It is assumed to appreciate slightly over the medium term, reaching US74 cents towards 2021-22.

Articles on agricultural issues
The EU sheep meat industry
• The European Union is one of the world's largest consumers of sheep meat. Imports are controlled by import quotas and prohibitive out-of-quota tariffs. • Australia is the second largest exporter to the European Union, behind New Zealand, although its allocated quota is just 8 per cent that of New Zealand's. • As a high value market for sheep meat, expanding sheep meat exports to the European Union would benefit the Australian industry. However, until the trade outcomes of Brexit are known, opportunities for Australian sheep meat exporters are uncertain.

Farm performance: broadacre and dairy farms, 2014-15 to 2016-17
• In 2016-17 farm cash income for Australian broadacre farms is projected to average $216,000 a farm, the highest recorded in the past 20 years. • Record broadacre farm cash incomes this year are the result of near record winter grain production in most regions and good prices for beef cattle, sheep, lamb and wool. • Average farm cash income is projected to increase for broadacre farms in all states except Tasmania in 2016-17. • Farm cash income for dairy farms is projected to decline by 17 per cent nationally to an average of $105,000 a farm in 2016-17, reflecting lower average farmgate milk prices and reduced milk production.

Productivity in Australia's broadacre and dairy industries
• From 1977-78 to 2014-15, productivity in the broadacre industries averaged 1.1 per cent a year as a result of declining input use (down 1 per cent a year) and modest output growth (up 0.1 per cent a year). • In the dairy industry, productivity growth averaged 1.5 per cent a year between 1978-79 and 2014-15. This reflected average annual growth of 1.3 per cent in output and an average annual decline of 0.2 per cent in input use.

Disaggregating farm performance by size
• The largest 10 per cent of broadacre farms produced 46 per cent of total output, while the smallest 50 per cent of farms produced 12 per cent of total output. • The average rate of return, including capital appreciation, generated by the largest 10 per cent of broadacre farms was 8.2 per cent, while the smallest 10 per cent generated average returns of -2.8 per cent. • The largest 10 per cent of broadacre farms had the lowest average equity ratio of all farms (79 per cent), while the smallest 10 per cent of farms had the highest average equity ratio (97 per cent).

Iron Ore decreased 1.36 USD/MT or 1.31% since the beginning of 2025, according to trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that tracks the benchmark market for this commodity. Iron Ore - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on March of 2025.

Wheat decreased 17.24 USd/BU or 3.13% since the beginning of 2025, according to trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that tracks the benchmark market for this commodity. Wheat - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on March of 2025.

Coal decreased 28.50 USD/MT or 22.75% since the beginning of 2025, according to trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that tracks the benchmark market for this commodity. Coal - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on March of 2025.

Australia Commodity Price Index: 2020-21=100: Non Rural Component: A$ data was reported at 155.221 2020-2021=100 in Feb 2023. This records a decrease from the previous number of 157.753 2020-2021=100 for Jan 2023. Australia Commodity Price Index: 2020-21=100: Non Rural Component: A$ data is updated monthly, averaging 39.137 2020-2021=100 from Jul 1982 (Median) to Feb 2023, with 488 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 173.400 2020-2021=100 in Jun 2022 and a record low of 25.945 2020-2021=100 in Apr 1984. Australia Commodity Price Index: 2020-21=100: Non Rural Component: A$ data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Reserve Bank of Australia. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Australia – Table AU.I038: Commodity Price Index: 2020-21=100.

Aluminum increased 16.20 USD/Tonne or 0.63% since the beginning of 2025, according to trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that tracks the benchmark market for this commodity. Aluminum - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on March of 2025.

Australia tariff rates for 2021 was 0.81%, a 0.1% increase from 2020.

• Australia tariff rates for 2020 was 0.71%, a 0.06% decline from 2019.
• Australia tariff rates for 2019 was 0.77%, a 0.09% decline from 2018.
• Australia tariff rates for 2018 was 0.86%, a 0.03% decline from 2017.

Weighted mean applied tariff is the average of effectively applied rates weighted by the product import shares corresponding to each partner country. Data are classified using the Harmonized System of trade at the six- or eight-digit level. Tariff line data were matched to Standard International Trade Classification (SITC) revision 3 codes to define commodity groups and import weights. To the extent possible, specific rates have been converted to their ad valorem equivalent rates and have been included in the calculation of weighted mean tariffs. Import weights were calculated using the United Nations Statistics Division's Commodity Trade (Comtrade) database. Effectively applied tariff rates at the six- and eight-digit product level are averaged for products in each commodity group. When the effectively applied rate is unavailable, the most favored nation rate is used instead.

In May 2024, iron ore was valued at approximately 119 U.S. dollars per dry metric ton unit (dmtu), as compared to 105 U.S. dollars per dmtu in the same month of the previous year. Iron ore prices and production Iron ore refers to the minerals and rocks from which metallic iron is economically viable to extract. Pig iron, which is one of the raw materials used in steel production, is derived from iron ore. The price of iron ore has fluctuated a great deal over the last twenty years. In 2003, one dmtu of iron ore cost 30 U.S. dollars, and increased to a high of 168 U.S. dollars per dmtu in 2011. The price saw dramatic drops in the past decade, from 139.87 U.S. dollars per dry metric ton unit in March 2013 to 40.50 U.S. dollars per dmtu in December 2015. Since then, the price has increased gradually to 214.14 U.S. dollars per dmtu as of July 2021, before dropping sharply in August 2021. Iron ore producers Overall, the global production of iron ore did not decrease when the prices dropped. In fact, an increase in production among several of the world's largest iron ore producing countries was observed in the past five years. Australia produced 960 million metric tons of iron ore in 2023. China is also among the world's largest iron ore producers, though its production is calculated differently than in other countries. Based primarily on the production of raw ore rather than usable ore, China produced an estimated 280 million metric tons in 2023.

Historical dataset of nominal and real (inflation-adjusted) gold prices per ounce back to 1915. The series is deflated using the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) with the most recent month as the base. The current month is updated on an hourly basis with today's latest value.

In 2023, iron ore was worth an average of approximately 120 U.S. dollars per dry metric ton unit (dmtu), compared to only 29 U.S. dollars per dmtu in 2000. The month with the highest average iron ore price in 2021 was June, at over 200 U.S. dollars per dmtu. Iron ore: market context and price fluctuation Iron ore is composed of minerals and rocks from which metallic iron can be extracted. Iron ore is an important part of the world economy, as a large proportion of iron ore is used to make steel, which is a widely used material globally. In a given year, the monthly price of iron ore varies noticeably, ranging for example from a high of 214.43 U.S. dollars per dmtu in June 2021 down to a low of 96.24 U.S. dollars per dmtu in November 2021. Major iron ore producing nations Australia has the world's largest iron ore reserves, at 51 billion metric tons of crude iron ore and is also the world's largest producer of iron ore. Not surprisingly, China, the world's leading steel manufacturer, is also the world's leading importer of iron. In recent years, China's iron imports have increased significantly, from 207.98 million metric tons in 2004, to over one billion metric tons in 2018.

Lithium decreased 750 CNY/T or 1.00% since the beginning of 2025, according to trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that tracks the benchmark market for this commodity. Lithium - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on March of 2025.

Australia Commodity Price Index: Non Rural Component: Bulk Commodities: SDR data was reported at 148.035 2019-2020=100 in Feb 2022. This records a decrease from the previous number of 155.468 2019-2020=100 for Jan 2022. Australia Commodity Price Index: Non Rural Component: Bulk Commodities: SDR data is updated monthly, averaging 41.827 2019-2020=100 from Jul 1982 (Median) to Feb 2022, with 476 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 180.577 2019-2020=100 in Jul 2021 and a record low of 24.645 2019-2020=100 in Dec 1999. Australia Commodity Price Index: Non Rural Component: Bulk Commodities: SDR data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Reserve Bank of Australia. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Australia – Table AU.I039: Commodity Price Index: 2019-20=100.

Copper increased 1.13 USd/LB or 28.38% since the beginning of 2025, according to trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that tracks the benchmark market for this commodity. Copper - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on March of 2025.

Australia Commodity Price Index: All Items: A$ data was reported at 137.193 2019-2020=100 in Feb 2022. This records a decrease from the previous number of 140.390 2019-2020=100 for Jan 2022. Australia Commodity Price Index: All Items: A$ data is updated monthly, averaging 46.343 2019-2020=100 from Jul 1982 (Median) to Feb 2022, with 476 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 142.068 2019-2020=100 in Jul 2021 and a record low of 28.428 2019-2020=100 in Jul 1982. Australia Commodity Price Index: All Items: A$ data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Reserve Bank of Australia. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Australia – Table AU.I039: Commodity Price Index: 2019-20=100.

Steel decreased 101 Yuan/MT or 3.05% since the beginning of 2025, according to trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that tracks the benchmark market for this commodity. Steel - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on March of 2025.

Natural gas increased 0.21 USD/MMBtu or 5.84% since the beginning of 2025, according to trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that tracks the benchmark market for this commodity. Natural gas - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on March of 2025.