The U.S. federal funds rate peaked in 2023 at its highest level since the 2007-08 financial crisis, reaching 5.33 percent by December 2023. A significant shift in monetary policy occurred in the second half of 2024, with the Federal Reserve implementing regular rate cuts. By December 2024, the rate had declined to 4.48 percent. What is a central bank rate? The federal funds rate determines the cost of overnight borrowing between banks, allowing them to maintain necessary cash reserves and ensure financial system liquidity. When this rate rises, banks become more inclined to hold rather than lend money, reducing the money supply. While this decreased lending slows economic activity, it helps control inflation by limiting the circulation of money in the economy. Historic perspective The federal funds rate historically follows cyclical patterns, falling during recessions and gradually rising during economic recoveries. Some central banks, notably the European Central Bank, went beyond traditional monetary policy by implementing both aggressive asset purchases and negative interest rates.

View data of the S&P 500, an index of the stocks of 500 leading companies in the US economy, which provides a gauge of the U.S. equity market.

Celsius Holdings' stock increased by 5.7% as the Fed maintained interest rates, signaling potential rate cuts amidst economic uncertainty. The company recently expanded by acquiring Alani Nu.

The Federal Reserve's balance sheet has undergone significant changes since 2007, reflecting its response to major economic crises. From a modest *** trillion U.S. dollars at the end of 2007, it ballooned to approximately **** trillion U.S. dollars by May 2025. This dramatic expansion, particularly during the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic - both of which resulted in negative annual GDP growth in the U.S. - showcases the Fed's crucial role in stabilizing the economy through expansionary monetary policies. Impact on inflation and interest rates The Fed's expansionary measures, while aimed at stimulating economic growth, have had notable effects on inflation and interest rates. Following the quantitative easing in 2020, inflation in the United States reached * percent in 2022, the highest since 1991. However, by *************, inflation had declined to *** percent. Concurrently, the Federal Reserve implemented a series of interest rate hikes, with the rate peaking at **** percent in ***********, before the first rate cut since ************** occurred in **************. Financial implications for the Federal Reserve The expansion of the Fed's balance sheet and subsequent interest rate hikes have had significant financial implications. In 2023, the Fed reported a negative net income of ***** billion U.S. dollars, a stark contrast to the ***** billion U.S. dollars profit in 2022. This unprecedented shift was primarily due to rapidly rising interest rates, which caused the Fed's interest expenses to soar to over *** billion U.S. dollars in 2023. Despite this, the Fed's net interest income on securities acquired through open market operations reached a record high of ****** billion U.S. dollars in the same year.

High-frequency trading consists of companies that trade large numbers of orders of financial securities in fractions of a second using quantitative trading algorithms. High-frequency trading is a subset of quantitative investing, which employs algorithms that analyze financial data to conduct trades. This industry is growing due to advancements in technology that have enabled investors to trade at faster rates than ever. Many factors have caused revenue to rise during the current period. During the pandemic investor uncertainty soared and rattled financial markets. As a result, trading volumes climbed leading to greater industry demand and revenue growth as firms capitalized on rapid transactions. The industry has also increasingly invested in computers and software to enhance the speed and efficiency of trade execution. Increased computer and software investments also help the industry improve portfolio optimization, which helps firms maximize gains while reducing market risks. As inflation soared in the latter part of the period, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates. Higher rates made bonds more attractive to investors, reducing investment in the stock market and the industry’s services. This posed a threat to high-frequency traders, although in 2024, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by half a point as inflationary pressures eased. This will limit investments in bonds and attract investment back into equities. Overall, industry revenue has grown at a CAGR of 5.7% to $7.1 billion over the past five years, including an expected decline of 3.7% in 2024 alone. Over the next five years, steady income growth will raise access to credit, enabling consumers to invest more in the stock market. As competition among financial institutions soars, private investment in computers and software will increase. These investments will make high-frequency trading more efficient, increasing its attractiveness. Investor uncertainty is anticipated to decline, so the volume of trades will be relatively low and the industry won't have a vital source of downstream demand. Overall, industry revenue is expected to lag at a CAGR of 2.7% to $6.2 billion over the five years to 2029.

Hong Kong's main stock market index, the HK50, rose to 24103 points on June 9, 2025, gaining 1.30% from the previous session. Over the past month, the index has climbed 2.35% and is up 32.61% compared to the same time last year, according to trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that tracks this benchmark index from Hong Kong. Hong Kong Stock Market Index (HK50) - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on June of 2025.

Strong returns in various financial markets and increased trading volumes have benefited businesses in the industry. Companies provide underwriting, brokering and market-making services for different financial instruments, including bonds, stocks and derivatives. Businesses benefited from improving macroeconomic conditions despite high inflationary economic environment. However, in 2024, the Fed slashed interest rates as inflationary pressures eased , limiting interest income from fixed-income securities for the industry. The Fed seeks to further cut interest rates but will monitor inflation, employment, the effects of tariffs and other economic factors before making further rate cut decisions. Overall, revenue has been growing at a CAGR of 7.0% over the past five years and is expected to total $456.6 billion in 2025, with revenue expected to decline 0.9% in the same year. In addition, industry profit is expected to climb to 13.0% over the five years to 2025. While many industries struggled at the onset of the period due to economic disruptions due to the pandemic and supply chain issues, businesses benefited from the volatility. Primarily, companies have benefited from increased trading activity on behalf of their clients due to fluctuations in asset prices. This has led to higher trade execution fees for firms at the onset of the period. Similarly, debt underwriting increased as many businesses have turned to investment bankers to help raise cash for various ventures. Also, improved scalability of operations, especially regarding trading services conducted by securities intermediates, has helped increase industry profits. Structural changes have forced the industry's smaller businesses to evolve. Because competing in trading services requires massive investments in technology and compliance, boutique investment banks have alternatively focused on advising in merger and acquisition (M&A) activity. Boutique investment banks' total share of M&A revenue is forecast to grow through the end of 2030. Furthermore, the industry will benefit from improved macroeconomic conditions as inflationary pressures are expected to ease. This will help asset values rise and interest rate levels to be cut, thus allowing operators to generate more from equity underwriting and lending activities. Overall, revenue is forecast to grow at a CAGR of 2.2% to $507.9 billion over the five years to 2030.

During the period beginning roughly in the mid-1980s until the Global Financial Crisis (2007-2008), the U.S. economy experienced a time of relative economic calm, with low inflation and consistent GDP growth. Compared with the turbulent economic era which had preceded it in the 1970s and the early 1980s, the lack of extreme fluctuations in the business cycle led some commentators to suggest that macroeconomic issues such as high inflation, long-term unemployment and financial crises were a thing of the past. Indeed, the President of the American Economic Association, Professor Robert Lucas, famously proclaimed in 2003 that "central problem of depression prevention has been solved, for all practical purposes". Ben Bernanke, the future chairman of the Federal Reserve during the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and 2022 Nobel Prize in Economics recipient, coined the term 'the Great Moderation' to describe this era of newfound economic confidence. The era came to an abrupt end with the outbreak of the GFC in the Summer of 2007, as the U.S. financial system began to crash due to a downturn in the real estate market.

Causes of the Great Moderation, and its downfall

A number of factors have been cited as contributing to the Great Moderation including central bank monetary policies, the shift from manufacturing to services in the economy, improvements in information technology and management practices, as well as reduced energy prices. The period coincided with the term of Fed chairman Alan Greenspan (1987-2006), famous for the 'Greenspan put', a policy which meant that the Fed would proactively address downturns in the stock market using its monetary policy tools. These economic factors came to prominence at the same time as the end of the Cold War (1947-1991), with the U.S. attaining a new level of hegemony in global politics, as its main geopolitical rival, the Soviet Union, no longer existed. During the Great Moderation, the U.S. experienced a recession twice, between July 1990 and March 1991, and again from March 2001 tom November 2001, however, these relatively short recessions did not knock the U.S. off its growth path. The build up of household and corporate debt over the early 2000s eventually led to the Global Financial Crisis, as the bursting of the U.S. housing bubble in 2007 reverberated across the financial system, with a subsequent credit freeze and mass defaults.

Graph and download economic data for Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator (SAHMREALTIME) from Dec 1959 to May 2025 about recession indicators, academic data, and USA.

Gold rose to 3,319.96 USD/t.oz on June 9, 2025, up 0.25% from the previous day. Over the past month, Gold's price has risen 2.57%, and is up 43.73% compared to the same time last year, according to trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that tracks the benchmark market for this commodity. Gold - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on June of 2025.

Australia's main stock market index, the ASX200, fell to 8516 points on June 6, 2025, losing 0.27% from the previous session. Over the past month, the index has climbed 4.13% and is up 8.34% compared to the same time last year, according to trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that tracks this benchmark index from Australia. Australia Stock Market Index - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on June of 2025.