In April 2025, global inflation rates and central bank interest rates showed significant variation across major economies. Most economies initiated interest rate cuts from mid-2024 due to declining inflationary pressures. The U.S., UK, and EU central banks followed a consistent pattern of regular rate reductions throughout late 2024. In early 2025, Russia maintained the highest interest rate at 21 percent, while Japan retained the lowest at 0.5 percent. Varied inflation rates across major economies The inflation landscape varies considerably among major economies. China had the lowest inflation rate at -0.1 percent in April 2025. In contrast, Russia maintained a high inflation rate of 10.2 percent. These figures align with broader trends observed in early 2025, where China had the lowest inflation rate among major developed and emerging economies, while Russia's rate remained the highest. Central bank responses and economic indicators Central banks globally implemented aggressive rate hikes throughout 2022-23 to combat inflation. The European Central Bank exemplified this trend, raising rates from 0 percent in January 2022 to 4.5 percent by September 2023. A coordinated shift among major central banks began in mid-2024, with the ECB, Bank of England, and Federal Reserve initiating rate cuts, with forecasts suggesting further cuts through 2025 and 2026.

The inflation rate in the United States declined significantly between June 2022 and March 2025, despite rising inflationary pressures towards the end of 2024. The peak inflation rate was recorded in June 2022, at *** percent. In August 2023, the Federal Reserve's interest rate hit its highest level during the observed period, at **** percent, and remained unchanged until September 2024, when the Federal Reserve implemented its first rate cut since September 2021. By January 2025, the rate dropped to **** percent, signalling a shift in monetary policy. What is the Federal Reserve interest rate? The Federal Reserve interest rate, or the federal funds rate, is the rate at which banks and credit unions lend to and borrow from each other. It is one of the Federal Reserve's key tools for maintaining strong employment rates, stable prices, and reasonable interest rates. The rate is determined by the Federal Reserve and adjusted eight times a year, though it can be changed through emergency meetings during times of crisis. The Fed doesn't directly control the interest rate but sets a target rate. It then uses open market operations to influence rates toward this target. Ways of measuring inflation Inflation is typically measured using several methods, with the most common being the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The CPI tracks the price of a fixed basket of goods and services over time, providing a measure of the price changes consumers face. At the end of 2023, the CPI in the United States was ****** percent, up from ****** a year earlier. A more business-focused measure is the producer price index (PPI), which represents the costs of firms.

The benchmark interest rate in Taiwan was last recorded at 2 percent. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - Taiwan Interest Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

The benchmark interest rate in Japan was last recorded at 0.50 percent. This dataset provides - Japan Interest Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

This dataset includes various economic indicators such as stock market performance, inflation rates, GDP, interest rates, employment data, and housing index, all of which are crucial for understanding the state of the economy. By analysing this dataset, one can gain insights into the causes and effects of past recessions in the US, which can inform investment decisions and policy-making.

There are 20 columns and 343 rows spanning 1990-04 to 2022-10

The columns are:

1. Price: Price column refers to the S&P 500 lot price over the years. The S&P 500 is a stock market index that measures the performance of 500 large companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. This variable represents the value of the S&P 500 index from 1980 to present. Industrial Production: This variable measures the output of industrial establishments in the manufacturing, mining, and utilities sectors. It reflects the overall health of the manufacturing industry, which is a key component of the US economy.

2. INDPRO: Industrial production measures the output of the manufacturing, mining, and utility sectors of the economy. It provides insights into the overall health of the economy, as a decline in industrial production can indicate a slowdown in economic activity. This data can be used by policymakers and investors to assess the state of the economy and make informed decisions.

3. CPI: CPI stands for Consumer Price Index, which measures the change in the prices of a basket of goods and services that consumers purchase. CPI inflation represents the rate at which the prices of goods and services in the economy are increasing.

4. Treasure Bill rate (3 month to 30 Years): Treasury bills (T-bills) are short-term debt securities issued by the US government. This variable represents the interest rates on T-bills with maturities ranging from 3 months to 30 years. It reflects the cost of borrowing money for the government and provides an indication of the overall level of interest rates in the economy.

5. GDP: GDP stands for Gross Domestic Product, which is the value of all goods and services produced in a country. This dataset is taking into account only the Nominal GDP values. Nominal GDP represents the total value of goods and services produced in the US economy without accounting for inflation.

6. Rate: The Federal Funds Rate is the interest rate at which depository institutions lend reserve balances to other depository institutions overnight. It is set by the Federal Reserve and is used as a tool to regulate the money supply in the economy.

7. BBK_Index: The BBKI are maintained and produced by the Indiana Business Research Center at the Kelley School of Business at Indiana University. The BBK Coincident and Leading Indexes and Monthly GDP Growth for the U.S. are constructed from a collapsed dynamic factor analysis of a panel of 490 monthly measures of real economic activity and quarterly real GDP growth. The BBK Leading Index is the leading subcomponent of the cycle measured in standard deviation units from trend real GDP growth.

8. Housing Index: This variable represents the value of the housing market in the US. It is calculated based on the prices of homes sold in the market and provides an indication of the overall health of the housing market.

9. Recession binary column: This variable is a binary indicator that takes a value of 1 when the US economy is in a recession and 0 otherwise. It is based on the official business cycle dates provided by the National Bureau of Economic Research.

Inflation Rate in Mexico increased to 4.42 percent in May from 3.93 percent in April of 2025. This dataset provides - Mexico Inflation Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

The Federal Reserve's balance sheet has undergone significant changes since 2007, reflecting its response to major economic crises. From a modest *** trillion U.S. dollars at the end of 2007, it ballooned to approximately **** trillion U.S. dollars by May 2025. This dramatic expansion, particularly during the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic - both of which resulted in negative annual GDP growth in the U.S. - showcases the Fed's crucial role in stabilizing the economy through expansionary monetary policies. Impact on inflation and interest rates The Fed's expansionary measures, while aimed at stimulating economic growth, have had notable effects on inflation and interest rates. Following the quantitative easing in 2020, inflation in the United States reached * percent in 2022, the highest since 1991. However, by *************, inflation had declined to *** percent. Concurrently, the Federal Reserve implemented a series of interest rate hikes, with the rate peaking at **** percent in ***********, before the first rate cut since ************** occurred in **************. Financial implications for the Federal Reserve The expansion of the Fed's balance sheet and subsequent interest rate hikes have had significant financial implications. In 2023, the Fed reported a negative net income of ***** billion U.S. dollars, a stark contrast to the ***** billion U.S. dollars profit in 2022. This unprecedented shift was primarily due to rapidly rising interest rates, which caused the Fed's interest expenses to soar to over *** billion U.S. dollars in 2023. Despite this, the Fed's net interest income on securities acquired through open market operations reached a record high of ****** billion U.S. dollars in the same year.

Inflation is generally defined as the continued increase in the average prices of goods and services in a given region. Following the extremely high global inflation experienced in the 1980s and 1990s, global inflation has been relatively stable since the turn of the millennium, usually hovering between three and five percent per year. There was a sharp increase in 2008 due to the global financial crisis now known as the Great Recession, but inflation was fairly stable throughout the 2010s, before the current inflation crisis began in 2021. Recent years Despite the economic impact of the coronavirus pandemic, the global inflation rate fell to 3.26 percent in the pandemic's first year, before rising to 4.66 percent in 2021. This increase came as the impact of supply chain delays began to take more of an effect on consumer prices, before the Russia-Ukraine war exacerbated this further. A series of compounding issues such as rising energy and food prices, fiscal instability in the wake of the pandemic, and consumer insecurity have created a new global recession, and global inflation in 2024 is estimated to have reached 5.76 percent. This is the highest annual increase in inflation since 1996. Venezuela Venezuela is the country with the highest individual inflation rate in the world, forecast at around 200 percent in 2022. While this is figure is over 100 times larger than the global average in most years, it actually marks a decrease in Venezuela's inflation rate, which had peaked at over 65,000 percent in 2018. Between 2016 and 2021, Venezuela experienced hyperinflation due to the government's excessive spending and printing of money in an attempt to curve its already-high inflation rate, and the wave of migrants that left the country resulted in one of the largest refugee crises in recent years. In addition to its economic problems, political instability and foreign sanctions pose further long-term problems for Venezuela. While hyperinflation may be coming to an end, it remains to be seen how much of an impact this will have on the economy, how living standards will change, and how many refugees may return in the coming years.

Inflation Rate in Russia decreased to 10.20 percent in April from 10.30 percent in March of 2025. This dataset provides - Russia Inflation Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

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When examining the intricate relationship between economic conditions and purchasing decisions, the utilization of practice datasets can offer invaluable insights. This particular artificial dataset comprises three main components: a dimension table of ten companies, a fact table documenting purchases from these companies, and a set of data points regarding economic conditions. These elements are meticulously designed to mimic real-world scenarios, enabling analysts to dissect and understand how fluctuations in the economy can influence the purchasing behavior of different types of companies.

The dimension table serves as the foundation, listing ten distinct companies, each potentially operating in varied sectors. This diversity allows for a comprehensive analysis across a spectrum of industries, highlighting sector-specific sensitivities to economic changes. The fact table of purchases acts as a historical record, offering detailed insights into the buying patterns of these companies over time. Analysts can observe trends, frequencies, and the magnitude of purchases, correlating them with the economic conditions presented in the third component of the dataset.

The economic conditions data is pivotal, as it encompasses a variety of indicators that can affect purchasing decisions. These may include inflation rates, interest rates, GDP growth, unemployment rates, and consumer confidence indices, among others. By examining the interplay between these economic indicators and the purchasing data, analysts can identify patterns and causations. For instance, an increase in interest rates might lead to a decrease in capital-intensive purchases by companies wary of higher borrowing costs.

Through this dataset, researchers can employ statistical models and data analysis techniques to uncover how economic fluctuations impact corporate purchasing decisions. The findings can offer valuable lessons for businesses in terms of budgeting, financial planning, and risk management. Companies can use these insights to make informed decisions, adjusting their purchasing strategies in anticipation of or in response to economic conditions. This proactive approach can help businesses maintain stability during economic downturns and capitalize on opportunities during favorable economic times.

Ultimately, this practice dataset not only aids in academic and educational pursuits but also serves as a practical tool for business analysts, economists, and corporate strategists seeking to better navigate the complex dynamics of the economy and its effects on corporate purchasing behaviors.

The U.S. federal funds rate peaked in 2023 at its highest level since the 2007-08 financial crisis, reaching 5.33 percent by December 2023. A significant shift in monetary policy occurred in the second half of 2024, with the Federal Reserve implementing regular rate cuts. By December 2024, the rate had declined to 4.48 percent. What is a central bank rate? The federal funds rate determines the cost of overnight borrowing between banks, allowing them to maintain necessary cash reserves and ensure financial system liquidity. When this rate rises, banks become more inclined to hold rather than lend money, reducing the money supply. While this decreased lending slows economic activity, it helps control inflation by limiting the circulation of money in the economy. Historic perspective The federal funds rate historically follows cyclical patterns, falling during recessions and gradually rising during economic recoveries. Some central banks, notably the European Central Bank, went beyond traditional monetary policy by implementing both aggressive asset purchases and negative interest rates.

This dataset contains news headlines relevant to key forex pairs: AUDUSD, EURCHF, EURUSD, GBPUSD, and USDJPY. The data was extracted from reputable platforms Forex Live and FXstreet over a period of 86 days, from January to May 2023. The dataset comprises 2,291 unique news headlines. Each headline includes an associated forex pair, timestamp, source, author, URL, and the corresponding article text. Data was collected using web scraping techniques executed via a custom service on a virtual machine. This service periodically retrieves the latest news for a specified forex pair (ticker) from each platform, parsing all available information. The collected data is then processed to extract details such as the article's timestamp, author, and URL. The URL is further used to retrieve the full text of each article. This data acquisition process repeats approximately every 15 minutes.

To ensure the reliability of the dataset, we manually annotated each headline for sentiment. Instead of solely focusing on the textual content, we ascertained sentiment based on the potential short-term impact of the headline on its corresponding forex pair. This method recognizes the currency market's acute sensitivity to economic news, which significantly influences many trading strategies. As such, this dataset could serve as an invaluable resource for fine-tuning sentiment analysis models in the financial realm.

We used three categories for annotation: 'positive', 'negative', and 'neutral', which correspond to bullish, bearish, and hold sentiments, respectively, for the forex pair linked to each headline. The following Table provides examples of annotated headlines along with brief explanations of the assigned sentiment.

Examples of Annotated Headlines


    Forex Pair
    Headline
    Sentiment
    Explanation




    GBPUSD 
    Diminishing bets for a move to 12400 
    Neutral
    Lack of strong sentiment in either direction


    GBPUSD 
    No reasons to dislike Cable in the very near term as long as the Dollar momentum remains soft 
    Positive
    Positive sentiment towards GBPUSD (Cable) in the near term


    GBPUSD 
    When are the UK jobs and how could they affect GBPUSD 
    Neutral
    Poses a question and does not express a clear sentiment


    JPYUSD
    Appropriate to continue monetary easing to achieve 2% inflation target with wage growth 
    Positive
    Monetary easing from Bank of Japan (BoJ) could lead to a weaker JPY in the short term due to increased money supply


    USDJPY
    Dollar rebounds despite US data. Yen gains amid lower yields 
    Neutral
    Since both the USD and JPY are gaining, the effects on the USDJPY forex pair might offset each other


    USDJPY
    USDJPY to reach 124 by Q4 as the likelihood of a BoJ policy shift should accelerate Yen gains 
    Negative
    USDJPY is expected to reach a lower value, with the USD losing value against the JPY


    AUDUSD

RBA Governor Lowe’s Testimony High inflation is damaging and corrosive

    Positive
    Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) expresses concerns about inflation. Typically, central banks combat high inflation with higher interest rates, which could strengthen AUD.

Moreover, the dataset includes two columns with the predicted sentiment class and score as predicted by the FinBERT model. Specifically, the FinBERT model outputs a set of probabilities for each sentiment class (positive, negative, and neutral), representing the model's confidence in associating the input headline with each sentiment category. These probabilities are used to determine the predicted class and a sentiment score for each headline. The sentiment score is computed by subtracting the negative class probability from the positive one.

August 2024 marked a significant shift in the UK's monetary policy, as it saw the first reduction in the official bank base interest rate since August 2023. This change came after a period of consistent rate hikes that began in late 2021. In a bid to minimize the economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Bank of England cut the official bank base rate in March 2020 to a record low of *** percent. This historic low came just one week after the Bank of England cut rates from **** percent to **** percent in a bid to prevent mass job cuts in the United Kingdom. It remained at *** percent until December 2021 and was increased to one percent in May 2022 and to **** percent in October 2022. After that, the bank rate increased almost on a monthly basis, reaching **** percent in August 2023. It wasn't until August 2024 that the first rate decrease since the previous year occurred, signaling a potential shift in monetary policy. Why do central banks adjust interest rates? Central banks, including the Bank of England, adjust interest rates to manage economic stability and control inflation. Their strategies involve a delicate balance between two main approaches. When central banks raise interest rates, their goal is to cool down an overheated economy. Higher rates curb excessive spending and borrowing, which helps to prevent runaway inflation. This approach is typically used when the economy is growing too quickly or when inflation is rising above desired levels. Conversely, when central banks lower interest rates, they aim to encourage borrowing and investment. This strategy is employed to stimulate economic growth during periods of slowdown or recession. Lower rates make it cheaper for businesses and individuals to borrow money, which can lead to increased spending and investment. This dual approach allows central banks to maintain a balance between promoting growth and controlling inflation, ensuring long-term economic stability. Additionally, adjusting interest rates can influence currency values, impacting international trade and investment flows, further underscoring their critical role in a nation's economic health. Recent interest rate trends Between 2021 and 2024, most advanced and emerging economies experienced a period of regular interest rate hikes. This trend was driven by several factors, including persistent supply chain disruptions, high energy prices, and robust demand pressures. These elements combined to create significant inflationary trends, prompting central banks to raise rates in an effort to temper spending and borrowing. However, in 2024, a shift began to occur in global monetary policy. The European Central Bank (ECB) was among the first major central banks to reverse this trend by cutting interest rates. This move signaled a change in approach aimed at addressing growing economic slowdowns and supporting growth.

Pakistan inflation rate for 2023 was 30.77%, a 10.89% increase from 2022.

<ul style='margin-top:20px;'>

<li>Pakistan inflation rate for 2022 was <strong>19.87%</strong>, a <strong>10.38% increase</strong> from 2021.</li>
<li>Pakistan inflation rate for 2021 was <strong>9.50%</strong>, a <strong>0.24% decline</strong> from 2020.</li>
<li>Pakistan inflation rate for 2020 was <strong>9.74%</strong>, a <strong>0.84% decline</strong> from 2019.</li>
</ul>Inflation as measured by the consumer price index reflects the annual percentage change in the cost to the average consumer of acquiring a basket of goods and services that may be fixed or changed at specified intervals, such as yearly. The Laspeyres formula is generally used.

Monetary policy is generally regarded as a central element in the attempts of policy makers to attenuate business-cycle fluctuations. According to the New Keynesian paradigm, central banks are able to stimulate or depress aggregate demand in the short run by adjusting their nominal interest rate targets. The effects of interest rate changes on aggregate consumption, the largest component of aggregate demand, are well understood in the context of this paradigm, on which the canonical "workhorse'' model used in monetary policy analysis is grounded. A key feature of the model is that aggregate consumption is fully described by the amount of goods consumed by a representative household. A decline in the policy rate for instance implies that the real interest rate declines, the representative household saves less and hence increase its demand for consumption. At the same time, general equilibrium effects let labour income grow causing consumption to increase further. However, the mechanism outlined above ignores a considerable amount of empirically-observed heterogeneity among households. For example, households with a higher earnings elasticity to interest rate changes benefit more from a rate cut than those with a lower elasticity; households with large debt positions are at a relative advantage over households with large bond holdings; and households with low exposure to inflation are relatively better off than those holding a sizeable amount of nominal assets. As a result, the contribution to the aggregate consumption response differs substantially across households, implying that monetary expansions and tightenings produce relative "winners'' and relative "losers''.

The aim of the project laid out in this proposal is to give a disaggregated account of the heterogeneous effects of monetary-policy induced interest rate changes on household consumption and a detailed analysis of the channels underlying them. Additionally, it seeks to draw conclusions about the determinants of the strength of the transmission mechanism of monetary policy. To do so, it relies on a large panel comprising detailed data from the universe of all households residing in Norway between 1993 and 2015 supplemented with additional micro-data provided by the European Commission. I will be assisted by two project partners, Pascal Paul who is a member of the Research Department of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco and Martin Holm who is affiliated with the Research Unit of Statistics Norway and the University of Oslo. In addition, I would like to collaborate with and help train a doctoral student based at the University of Lausanne on this project.

Existing empirical studies of the consumption response to monetary policy at the micro level rely on survey data. Therefore, they are subject to a number of severe data limitations. The surveys employed typically have either no or only a short panel dimension, suffer from attrition, include only limited information on income and wealth, are top-coded, and contain a significant amount of measurement error. The administrative data set provided to us by Statistics Norway suffers from none of these issues, implying that we are in a unique position to evaluate the household-level effects of policy rate changes. In a first step, we use forecasts published by the Norwegian central bank to derive monetary policy shocks that are robust to the simultaneity problem inherent in the identification of the effects of monetary policy following Romer and Romer (2004). We then confront the micro-data with the estimated shocks to study the consumption response along different segments of the income and wealth distribution and to test the importance of heterogeneity in labour earnings, financial income, liquid assets, inflation exposure and interest rate exposure among others. The findings will be of high relevance as they will not only allow us to evaluate channels hypothesised in the analytical literature, improve our understanding of the monetary policy transmission mechanism and its distributional consequences but also serve as a benchmark for structural models built both by theorists and practitioners.

Inflation Rate in Vietnam increased to 3.24 percent in May from 3.12 percent in April of 2025. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - Vietnam Inflation Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

Nigeria’s inflation has been higher than the average for African and Sub-Saharan countries for years now, and even exceeded 16 percent in 2017 – and a real, significant decrease is nowhere in sight. The bigger problem is its unsteadiness, however: An inflation rate that is bouncing all over the place, like this one, is usually a sign of a struggling economy, causing prices to fluctuate, and unemployment and poverty to increase. Nigeria’s economy - a so-called “mixed economy”, which means the market economy is at least in part regulated by the state – is not entirely in bad shape, though. More than half of its GDP is generated by the services sector, namely telecommunications and finances, and the country derives a significant share of its state revenues from oil.

Because it got high

To simplify: When the inflation rate rises, so do prices, and consequently banks raise their interest rates as well to cope and maintain their profit margin. Higher interest rates often cause unemployment to rise. In certain scenarios, rising prices can also mean more panicky spending and consumption among end users, causing debt and poverty. The extreme version of this is called hyperinflation: A rapid increase of prices that is out of control and leads to bankruptcies en masse, devaluation of money and subsequently a currency reform, among other things. But does that mean that low inflation is better? Maybe, but only to a certain degree; the ECB, for example, aspires to maintain an inflation rate of about two percent so as to keep the economy stable. As soon as we reach deflation territory, however, things are starting to look grim again. The best course is a stable inflation rate, to avoid uncertainty and rash actions.

Nigeria today

Nigeria is one of the countries with the largest populations worldwide and also the largest economy in Africa, with its economy growing rapidly after a slump in the aforementioned year 2017. It is slated to be one of the countries with the highest economic growth over the next few decades. Demographic key indicators, like infant mortality rate, fertility rate, and the median age of the population, all point towards a bright future. Additionally, the country seems to make big leaps forward in manufacturing and technological developments, and boasts huge natural resources, including natural gas. All in all, Nigeria and its inflation seem to be on the upswing – or on the path to stabilization, as it were.

Inflation in Argentina was 54 percent in 2019, before falling to 42 percent in 2020. Despite Argentina's fluctuating economic instability over the twentieth century, the largest factor in its current economic status is the legacy of poor fiscal discipline left by the economic depression from 1998 to 2002. Although data is not available from 2014 to 2016, Argentina's inflation rate has been among the highest in the world for the past five years.

What causes inflation?

Inflation is a rise in price levels for all goods. Major causes of inflation include an increase in money supply, low central bank interest rates, and expectation of inflation. In a country such as Argentina, the expectation can be one of the biggest obstacles. People expect inflation to be high and demand increasing wages, and firms continue raising prices because they expect the costs of inputs to increase. Banks follow suit, charging high interest rates on fixed deposits.

Effects of inflation

Inflation negatively affects savers. 100 Argentinian pesos in 2018 was worth just under 75 pesos in 2019, after adjusting for the 34 percent inflation rate. Similarly, frequently changing prices has its own inherent cost, called “menu cost” after the price of printing new menus. Inflation will also have a positive effect on national debt when that debt is denominated in Argentinian pesos, because the pesos will be cheaper when the loan matures. However, the majority of Argentina’s debts are in foreign currency, which means that inflation will make these debts larger in peso terms.

Inflation Rate in Turkey decreased to 35.41 percent in May from 37.86 percent in April of 2025. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - Turkey Inflation Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

Iran’s inflation rate rose sharply to 34.79 percent in 2019 and was projected to rise another 14 percentage points before slowly starting to decline. Given the recent sanctions by the United States regarding the nuclear deal, this number has both political and economic implications. Political implications President Hassan Rouhani won the 2017 election based on economic promises, many stemming from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), commonly known as the Iran Nuclear Deal. Lifting these sanctions opened the Iranian economy to many opportunities, including the chance to benefit from increased oil exports. The JCPOA was an integral part of the Rouhani campaign, so any economic hardship that is linked to the deal will likely be blamed on the president. Economic implications High inflation leads to high interest rates, which leads to less borrowing. Less borrowing means less investment, which slows economic growth. This slower growth often leads to higher inflation, which is what economists call an inflationary spiral. As such, Iran will have difficulty achieving substantial GDP growth until inflation returns to manageable rates.