ABSTRACT Purpose: The objective of this article is to model a minute series of exchange rates for the EUR/USD pair using the singular spectrum analysis (SSA) and ARIMA-GARCH methods and evaluate which one offers better forecasts for a five-minute horizon. Originality/value: Despite being a successful technique in other branches of science, the application of SSA in finance is quite new. Furthermore, exchange rate modeling is a complex problem, comprising statistical concepts and properties. However, despite the complexity, the analysis of this series is extremely important for several agents playing, directly or indirectly, a role in the economy and the financial market. Design/methodology/approach: Time series models were estimated using the ARIMA-GARCH and SSA techniques, taking into account three samples of the ask exchange rate (closing): uptrend, downtrend, and no well-defined trend. Findings: The forecasts carried out by the SSA were the ones closest to the original observations for the three cases. Regarding the quality measurements, SSA obtained the best results for both uptrend and downtrend samples; for the sample with no well-defined trend, the findings indicated that the ARIMA-GARCH technique attained better results. However, it was concluded that the SSA forecasts, regarding exchange rates during the studied period, are more appropriate than the ones obtained by the ARIMA-GARCH model, regardless of the market movement.

Russia MED Forecast: Foreign Exchange Rate: Year Average: US Dollar: Baseline Scenario data was reported at 75.156 RUB/USD in 2036. This records an increase from the previous number of 74.739 RUB/USD for 2035. Russia MED Forecast: Foreign Exchange Rate: Year Average: US Dollar: Baseline Scenario data is updated yearly, averaging 69.636 RUB/USD from Dec 2016 (Median) to 2036, with 21 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 75.156 RUB/USD in 2036 and a record low of 58.335 RUB/USD in 2017. Russia MED Forecast: Foreign Exchange Rate: Year Average: US Dollar: Baseline Scenario data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Russian Federation – Table RU.ME002: Foreign Exchange Rate: Year Average: US Dollar: Forecast: Ministry of Economic Development.

The USD/CAD exchange rate rose to 1.3753 on July 17, 2025, up 0.46% from the previous session. Over the past month, the Canadian Dollar has weakened 0.43%, and is down by 0.36% over the last 12 months. Canadian Dollar - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on July of 2025.

The AUD/USD exchange rate rose to 0.6525 on July 18, 2025, up 0.41% from the previous session. Over the past month, the Australian Dollar has strengthened 0.66%, but it's down by 2.39% over the last 12 months. Australian Dollar - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on July of 2025.

A graphic that displays the dollar performance against other currencies reveals that economic developments had mixed results on currency exchanges. The third quarter of 2023 marked a period of disinflation in the euro area, while China's projected growth was projected to go up. The United States economy was said to have a relatively strong performance in Q3 2023, although growing capital market interest rate and the resumption of student loan repayments might dampen this growth at the end of 2023. A relatively weak Japanese yen Q3 2023 saw pressure from investors towards Japanese authorities on how they would respond to the situation surrounding the Japanese yen. The USD/JPY rate was close to ***, whereas analysts suspected it should be around ** given the country's purchase power parity. The main reason for this disparity is said to be the differences in central bank interest rates between the United States, the euro area, and Japan. Any future aggressive changes from, especially the U.S. Fed might lower those differences. Financial markets responded somewhat disappoint when Japan did not announce major plans to tackle the situation. Potential rent decreases in 2024 Central bank rates peak in 2023, although it is expected that some of these will decline in early 2024. That said, analysts expect overall policies will remain restrictive. For example, the Bank of England's interest rate remained unchanged at **** percent in Q3 2023. It is believed the United Kingdom's central bank will ease its interest rate in 2024 but less than either the U.S. Fed or the European Central Bank. This should be a positive development for the pound compared to either the euro or the dollar.

Chile Economic Expectations Evolution: Exchange Rate: Next 23 Months data was reported at 930.000 USD/CLP in Apr 2025. This records an increase from the previous number of 910.000 USD/CLP for Mar 2025. Chile Economic Expectations Evolution: Exchange Rate: Next 23 Months data is updated monthly, averaging 637.500 USD/CLP from Jan 2007 (Median) to Apr 2025, with 220 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 930.000 USD/CLP in Apr 2025 and a record low of 490.000 USD/CLP in May 2013. Chile Economic Expectations Evolution: Exchange Rate: Next 23 Months data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Central Bank of Chile. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Chile – Table CL.M012: Foreign Exchange Rate: Projection: Central Bank of Chile.

New Zealand Expectations of Foreign Exchange Rate: United States Dollar: One Year Ahead data was reported at 0.653 USD/NZD in Dec 2018. This records a decrease from the previous number of 0.671 USD/NZD for Sep 2018. New Zealand Expectations of Foreign Exchange Rate: United States Dollar: One Year Ahead data is updated quarterly, averaging 0.627 USD/NZD from Sep 1987 (Median) to Dec 2018, with 126 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 0.830 USD/NZD in Mar 2013 and a record low of 0.434 USD/NZD in Mar 2002. New Zealand Expectations of Foreign Exchange Rate: United States Dollar: One Year Ahead data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Reserve Bank of New Zealand. The data is categorized under Global Database’s New Zealand – Table NZ.M016: Foreign Exchange Rate: Forecast: Reserve Bank of New Zealand.

The USD/HKD exchange rate fell to 7.8476 on July 18, 2025, down 0.01% from the previous session. Over the past month, the Hong Kong Dollar has strengthened 0.03%, but it's down by 0.47% over the last 12 months. Hong Kong Dollar - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on July of 2025.

Graph and download economic data for Canadian Dollars to U.S. Dollar Spot Exchange Rate (DEXCAUS) from 1971-01-04 to 2025-07-11 about Canada, exchange rate, currency, rate, and USA.

Mexico BDM Forecast: Exchange Rate against US$: Average: Plus 2 Years data was reported at 20.780 MXN/USD in Mar 2019. This records a decrease from the previous number of 20.890 MXN/USD for Feb 2019. Mexico BDM Forecast: Exchange Rate against US$: Average: Plus 2 Years data is updated monthly, averaging 18.475 MXN/USD from Nov 2001 (Median) to Mar 2019, with 52 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 21.050 MXN/USD in Dec 2016 and a record low of 10.360 MXN/USD in Dec 2001. Mexico BDM Forecast: Exchange Rate against US$: Average: Plus 2 Years data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Bank of Mexico. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Mexico – Table MX.M006: Foreign Exchange Rates: Forecast.

New Zealand Expectations of Foreign Exchange Rate: Australian Dollar: End Next Quarter data was reported at 0.908 AUD/NZD in Dec 2018. This records a decrease from the previous number of 0.916 AUD/NZD for Sep 2018. New Zealand Expectations of Foreign Exchange Rate: Australian Dollar: End Next Quarter data is updated quarterly, averaging 0.839 AUD/NZD from Sep 1987 (Median) to Dec 2018, with 126 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 0.950 AUD/NZD in Jun 2015 and a record low of 0.692 AUD/NZD in Mar 1989. New Zealand Expectations of Foreign Exchange Rate: Australian Dollar: End Next Quarter data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Reserve Bank of New Zealand. The data is categorized under Global Database’s New Zealand – Table NZ.M016: Foreign Exchange Rate: Forecast: Reserve Bank of New Zealand.

Gold fell to 3,336.24 USD/t.oz on July 17, 2025, down 0.32% from the previous day. Over the past month, Gold's price has fallen 0.96%, but it is still 36.66% higher than a year ago, according to trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that tracks the benchmark market for this commodity. Gold - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on July of 2025.

The Euro to Australian exchange rate history reveals a peak in March 2020, before declining well until mid 2022. Exchange rates fluctuate against each other constantly. As of May 2, 2025, the exchange rate was avalued at 1.77 Australian dollars per euro. The rate in which one currency performs against another depends on the demand that it generates at any given time. Exchange rates are affected by several factors including international trade, tourism and geopolitical tensions.Euro gains strength against the Brexit PoundOne good example of geopolitical risks having a negative effect on the strength of a currency is to look at the British Pound post Brexit referendum. The average annual exchange rate of the Euro to GBP increased significantly between 2015 and 2018.The Euro vs the worldSince 2016, the euro has performed well against several other currencies. The Euro to U.S dollar had seen its annual average exchange rate increase by .07 between 2016 and 2018, after slightly decreasing in 2019. Against the Indian Rupee, the Euro had performed even better, with the average annual exchange rate equaling 78.84 in 2019.

Policy interest rates in the U.S. and Europe are forecasted to decrease gradually between 2024 and 2027, following exceptional increases triggered by soaring inflation between 2021 and 2023. The U.S. federal funds rate stood at **** percent at the end of 2023, the European Central Bank deposit rate at **** percent, and the Swiss National Bank policy rate at **** percent. With inflationary pressures stabilizing, policy interest rates are forecast to decrease in each observed region. The U.S. federal funds rate is expected to decrease to *** percent, the ECB refi rate to **** percent, the Bank of England bank rate to **** percent, and the Swiss National Bank policy rate to **** percent by 2025. An interesting aspect to note is the impact of these interest rate changes on various economic factors such as growth, employment, and inflation. The impact of central bank policy rates The U.S. federal funds effective rate, crucial in determining the interest rate paid by depository institutions, experienced drastic changes in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. The subsequent slight changes in the effective rate reflected the efforts to stimulate the economy and manage economic factors such as inflation. Such fluctuations in the federal funds rate have had a significant impact on the overall economy. The European Central Bank's decision to cut its fixed interest rate in June 2024 for the first time since 2016 marked a significant shift in attitude towards economic conditions. The reasons behind the fluctuations in the ECB's interest rate reflect its mandate to ensure price stability and manage inflation, shedding light on the complex interplay between interest rates and economic factors. Inflation and real interest rates The relationship between inflation and interest rates is critical in understanding the actions of central banks. Central banks' efforts to manage inflation through interest rate adjustments reveal the intricate balance between economic growth and inflation. Additionally, the concept of real interest rates, adjusted for inflation, provides valuable insights into the impact of inflation on the economy.

The foreign exchange (Forex) market is a global decentralized market for the trading of currencies. It is the largest financial market in the world, with an average daily trading volume of over $5 trillion. The market size is expected to reach $84 million by 2033, growing at a CAGR of 5.83% during the forecast period 2025-2033. Key drivers of the Forex market growth include increasing international trade, rising foreign direct investment, and growing demand for hedging and speculation. The market is also being driven by the increasing use of online trading platforms and the growing popularity of cryptocurrencies. The major players in the Forex market include Deutsche Bank, UBS, JP Morgan, State Street, XTX Markets, Jump Trading, Citi, Bank of New York Mellon, Bank America, and Goldman Sachs. The market is segmented by type (spot Forex, currency swap, outright forward, Forex swaps, Forex options, other types), counterparty (reporting dealers, other financial institutions, non-financial customers), and region (North America, South America, Europe, Middle East & Africa, Asia Pacific). Recent developments include: In November 2023, JP Morgan revealed the introduction of novel FX Warrants denominated in Hong Kong dollars in the Hong Kong market, marking its status as the inaugural issuer in Asia to present FX Warrants featuring CNH/HKD (Chinese Renminbi traded outside Mainland China/Hong Kong dollar) and JPY/HKD (Japanese Yen/Hong Kong dollar) as underlying currency pairs. These fresh FX Warrants are set to commence trading on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange., In October 2023, Deutsche Bank AG finalized its purchase of Numis Corporation Plc. The integration of both brands under the name 'Deutsche Numis' underscores their collective influence and standing in the UK and global markets. 'Deutsche Numis' emerges as a prominent entity in UK investment banking and the preferred advisor for UK-listed companies. This acquisition aligns with Deutsche Bank's Global Hausbank strategy, aiming to become the primary partner for clients in financial services and fostering stronger relationships with corporations throughout the United Kingdom., In June 2023, UBS successfully finalized the acquisition of Credit Suisse, marking a significant achievement. Credit Suisse Group AG has merged into UBS Group AG, forming a unified banking entity.. Key drivers for this market are: International Transactions Driven by Growing Tourism Driving Market Demand, Market Liquidity Impacting the Foreign Exchange Market. Potential restraints include: International Transactions Driven by Growing Tourism Driving Market Demand, Market Liquidity Impacting the Foreign Exchange Market. Notable trends are: FX Swaps is leading the market.

New Zealand ANZ Forecast: Foreign Exchange Rate: United States Dollar: Annual data was reported at 0.640 NZD/USD in 2025. This records an increase from the previous number of 0.630 NZD/USD for 2024. New Zealand ANZ Forecast: Foreign Exchange Rate: United States Dollar: Annual data is updated yearly, averaging 0.645 NZD/USD from Dec 2018 (Median) to 2025, with 8 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 0.680 NZD/USD in 2021 and a record low of 0.590 NZD/USD in 2023. New Zealand ANZ Forecast: Foreign Exchange Rate: United States Dollar: Annual data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by ANZ Bank New Zealand. The data is categorized under Global Database’s New Zealand – Table NZ.M017: Foreign Exchange Rate: Forecast: ANZ Bank Ltd.

The USD/IDR exchange rate fell to 16,302.6000 on July 18, 2025, down 0.22% from the previous session. Over the past month, the Indonesian Rupiah has strengthened 0.38%, but it's down by 0.55% over the last 12 months. Indonesian Rupiah - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on July of 2025.

The inflation rate in the United States is expected to decrease to 2.1 percent by 2029. 2022 saw a year of exceptionally high inflation, reaching eight percent for the year. The data represents U.S. city averages. The base period was 1982-84. In economics, the inflation rate is a measurement of inflation, the rate of increase of a price index (in this case: consumer price index). It is the percentage rate of change in prices level over time. The rate of decrease in the purchasing power of money is approximately equal. According to the forecast, prices will increase by 2.9 percent in 2024. The annual inflation rate for previous years can be found here and the consumer price index for all urban consumers here. The monthly inflation rate for the United States can also be accessed here. Inflation in the U.S.Inflation is a term used to describe a general rise in the price of goods and services in an economy over a given period of time. Inflation in the United States is calculated using the consumer price index (CPI). The consumer price index is a measure of change in the price level of a preselected market basket of consumer goods and services purchased by households. This forecast of U.S. inflation was prepared by the International Monetary Fund. They project that inflation will stay higher than average throughout 2023, followed by a decrease to around roughly two percent annual rise in the general level of prices until 2028. Considering the annual inflation rate in the United States in 2021, a two percent inflation rate is a very moderate projection. The 2022 spike in inflation in the United States and worldwide is due to a variety of factors that have put constraints on various aspects of the economy. These factors include COVID-19 pandemic spending and supply-chain constraints, disruptions due to the war in Ukraine, and pandemic related changes in the labor force. Although the moderate inflation of prices between two and three percent is considered normal in a modern economy, countries’ central banks try to prevent severe inflation and deflation to keep the growth of prices to a minimum. Severe inflation is considered dangerous to a country’s economy because it can rapidly diminish the population’s purchasing power and thus damage the GDP .

The USD/SEK exchange rate fell to 9.6639 on July 18, 2025, down 0.63% from the previous session. Over the past month, the Swedish Krona has weakened 0.28%, but it's up by 9.45% over the last 12 months. Swedish Krona - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on July of 2025.

The USD/THB exchange rate fell to 32.3980 on July 18, 2025, down 0.31% from the previous session. Over the past month, the Thai Baht has strengthened 1.14%, and is up by 10.50% over the last 12 months. Thai Baht - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on July of 2025.