In the first quarter of 2021, the wholesale and retail sector remained the largest contributor to the gross domestic product (GDP) of the emirate of Dubai in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), accounting for about **** percent. Meanwhile, the financial services and insurance sector and the transport and storage sector followed at **** and **** percent, respectively. Global economic hub The United Arab Emirates, the second-largest Arab economy after Saudi Arabia in 2021, is home to key business hubs and financial centers, Dubai and Abu Dhabi. With the government’s strategic initiatives to support a growing environment for budding businesses, Dubai and Abu Dhabi have become the world’s most attractive business destinations for both local and foreign entrepreneurs. As of 2022, UAE was ranked among countries with the most competitive economy by the International Institute for Management Development, based on economic performance, government efficiency, business efficiency, and infrastructure. Road to sustainability The UAE economy has been historically heavily dependent on oil for its economy, as extractive industries remained the leading driver of the Emirates’ GDP in 2020. However, the UAE has been taking active initiatives towards a “green economy for sustainable development” by diversifying its economy away from oil. The UAE Energy Strategy 2050 sets an aim of ** percent renewables in the energy mix by 2050, the majority of which would likely stem from photovoltaic systems.

In 2020, the extractive industries, including oil and natural gas, accounted for the largest share of real gross domestic product (GDP) in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), representing just over ** percent. The wholesale and retail trade industries followed closely at approximately **** percent. Conventional versus renewable energy In the United Arab Emirates, extractive industries have long been the backbone of the domestic economy, contributing over *** billion UAE Dirham to the country’s GDP in 2020. The UAE has also been ranked among the global leaders in crude oil production. However, the country is diverging from such conventional energy sources for the sake of a more environmentally sustainable economy. The UAE is working towards ** percent of renewable energy by 2030, while the UAE Strategy 2050 further targets a contribution of ** percent of clean energy to the energy mix. Non-oil economic sectors on the rise Despite the availability of vast deposits of fossil fuels and the country’s historical dependency on these natural resources, the UAE has also been striving towards a more diversified economy. Among the country’s non-oil industries, tourism and hospitality have contributed significantly to domestic economic growth. The pandemic-delayed Dubai Expo 2020 has cushioned the initial shock of COVID-19, offering a worthwhile opportunity for recovery and growth for the UAE tourism-related industries.

In 2021, the average share of GDP generated from oil rents in the United Arab Emirates amounted to ***** percent. Between 1975 and 2021, the figure dropped by ***** percentage points, though the decline followed an uneven course rather than a steady trajectory.

In general, foreign direct investments (FDIs) play a crucial role in driving a country’s economic development, promoting diversification, and enhancing competitiveness. The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, which heavily rely on the oil and gas sectors, are particularly vulnerable to fluctuations in commodity prices. However, these countries have recognized the imperative of economic diversification and have increasingly turned to inward FDIs to achieve it. By attracting capital, advanced technology, and expertise from foreign investors, FDIs enable the GCC countries to expand their economic base beyond the oil and gas sectors. This diversification not only creates employment opportunities but also fosters resilient economic growth, ultimately leading to an improvement in the living standards of the local population. This study investigates the macroeconomic and environmental factors that potentially attract foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows into the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries in the long run. Additionally, the study explores the causal relationship between these factors and FDI inflows. The panel autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to co-integration is the primary analytical technique used, utilizing long time-series data from six GCC countries, including Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) during the period 1990–2019. The empirical results indicate that, in the long run, almost all independent variables significantly influence FDI in GCC countries. Variables such as GDP growth (GDPG), inflation (INFL), carbon dioxide emissions (CO2), and urbanization (URB) are found to be highly significant (p≤0.01) in their impact on FDI. Moreover, unemployment (UNEMP) also positively and significantly influences FDI in these countries in the long run. Based on the key findings, strategies aimed at reducing persistently high unemployment rates, maintaining population growth, viewing FDI as a driver for GDP growth, and continuing with infrastructure development and urbanization are expected to attract more FDI inflows into GCC countries in the long run. Additionally, fostering both long-term economic incentives and creating a conducive business infrastructure for investors are vital for attracting inward FDI into any nation, including those in the GCC. This research would benefit various stakeholders, including governments, local businesses, investors, academia, and the local society, by providing valuable knowledge and informing decision-making processes related to economic development, diversification, and investment promotion.

The projected fiscal breakeven oil price in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) in 2025 was ** U.S. dollars per barrel. This represented a decrease from over ** U.S. dollars per barrel in 2023. Fiscal breakeven oil price as an indicator For the countries whose economies rely heavily on oil revenues, the fiscal breakeven oil price serves as an indicator of the country’s financial state. More specifically, it is the minimum barrel price the nation needs to cover its budget expenditures. For instance, the fiscal breakeven oil price in Kuwait was projected to be around ** U.S. dollars per barrel in 2025, while that of Qatar about ** U.S. dollars per barrel. This implies that the Qatari economy may be more resilient to oil price shocks than Kuwait, since it can endure lower prices. The UAE, fossil fuels, and sustainability Similar to other economies in the region, the UAE had a relatively high share of GDP attributed to oil and gas production. The UAE has large oil reserves, listing among the leading countries in terms of proved oil reserves worldwide. Nevertheless, an economy built around fossil fuels is harmful to the environment and susceptible to oil price shocks, and therefore unsustainable. For these reasons, the Emirati government has devised strategies to build a more resilient economy, that is less dependent on fossil fuels. For example, the planned energy distribution in the UAE aims for renewable energy sources to make up ** percent of the total by 2050.

In 2019, the inflation rate of the United Arab Emirates was at 1.93 percent compared to the previous year. For 2018, estimates show a sharp increase of over 3.07 percent, before inflation slumps back to around 2 percent in 2029.

Oil is keeping everything afloat

The economy of the United Arab Emirates heavily relies on oil and its respective revenues. The UAE possess vast stable oil reserves, and crude oil production is steadily increasing. Naturally, oil exports – mostly to the Asia-Pacific region – are the main economic driver, and the industrial and services sectors have divided generation of GDP almost evenly among themselves. Oil has caused the UAE economy to thrive and caused an impressive trade surplus just a few years ago, before a dramatic (but still not overly concerning) slump.

Oil is dragging everything down

When oil prices decreased, so did the trade surplus, and inflation mirrored this by skyrocketing from around one percent to over four percent in three years. Another three years later, in 2018, it spiked again at over 3.5 percent – another response to dropping oil prices. Diversifying the economy is one way for the UAE to diminish oil’s monopoly; tourism has been a growing industry over the last few years and might just stabilize inflation if another oil price slump hits.