Credible intervals for the dynamic population model (DPM) local authority case studies.

Estimates of population and migration from the dynamic population model (DPM) for local authority case studies, 2011 to 2022.

BackgroundRecent declines in US cigarette smoking prevalence have coincided with increases in use of other tobacco products. Multiple product tobacco models can help assess the population health impacts associated with use of a wide range of tobacco products.Methods and FindingsWe present a multi-state, dynamical systems population structure model that can be used to assess the effects of tobacco product use behaviors on population health. The model incorporates transition behaviors, such as initiation, cessation, switching, and dual use, related to the use of multiple products. The model tracks product use prevalence and mortality attributable to tobacco use for the overall population and by sex and age group. The model can also be used to estimate differences in these outcomes between scenarios by varying input parameter values. We demonstrate model capabilities by projecting future cigarette smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable mortality and then simulating the effects of introduction of a hypothetical new lower-risk tobacco product under a variety of assumptions about product use. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to examine the range of population impacts that could occur due to differences in input values for product use and risk. We demonstrate that potential benefits from cigarette smokers switching to the lower-risk product can be offset over time through increased initiation of this product. Model results show that population health benefits are particularly sensitive to product risks and initiation, switching, and dual use behaviors.ConclusionOur model incorporates the variety of tobacco use behaviors and risks that occur with multiple products. As such, it can evaluate the population health impacts associated with the introduction of new tobacco products or policies that may result in product switching or dual use. Further model development will include refinement of data inputs for non-cigarette tobacco products and inclusion of health outcomes such as morbidity and disability.

1. Many migratory species are in decline across their geographical ranges. Single-population studies can provide important insights into drivers at a local scale, but effective conservation requires multi-population perspectives. This is challenging because relevant data are often hard to consolidate, and state-of-the-art analytical tools are typically tailored to specific datasets.
2. We capitalized on a recent data harmonization initiative (SPI-Birds) and linked it to a generalized modeling framework to identify the demographic and environmental drivers of large-scale population decline in migratory pied flycatchers (Ficedula hypoleuca) breeding across Britain.
3. We implemented a generalized integrated population model (IPM) to estimate age-specific vital rates, including their dependency on environmental conditions, and total and breeding population size of pied flycatchers using long-term (34–64 years) monitoring data from seven locations representative of the British breeding range. We then quantified the relative contributions of different vital rates and population structures to changes in short- and long-term population growth rates using transient life table response experiments (LTREs).
4. Substantial covariation in population sizes across breeding locations suggested that change was the result of large-scale drivers. This was supported by LTRE analyses, which attributed past changes in short-term population growth rates and long-term population trends primarily to variation in annual survival and dispersal dynamics, which largely act during migration and/or non-breeding season. Contributions of variation in local reproductive parameters were small in comparison, despite sensitivity to local temperature and rainfall within the breeding period.
5. We show that both short- and longer-term population changes of British-breeding pied flycatchers are likely linked to factors acting during migration and in non-breeding areas, where future research should be prioritized. We illustrate the potential of multi-population analyses for informing management at (inter)national scales and highlight the importance of data standardization, generalized and accessible analytical tools, and reproducible workflows to achieve them. Methods Data collection protocols are described in the paper, and further references provided therein. Raw data were harmonised and converted to a standard format by SPI-Birds (https://spibirds.org/) and then collated into the input data provided here using code deposited on https://github.com/SPI-Birds/SPI-IPM. Details on this step of data processing will be added to https://spi-birds.github.io/SPI-IPM/. The MCMC sample data files are the outputs of the integrated population models fitted in the study. Please refer to the published article and material deposited on the associated GitHub repository for more details.

As a source of animal and plant population data, the Global Population Dynamics Database (GPDD) is unrivalled. Nearly five thousand separate time series are available here. In addition to all the population counts, there are taxonomic details of over 1400 species. The type of data contained in the GPDD varies enormously, from annual counts of mammals or birds at individual sampling sites, to weekly counts of zooplankton and other marine fauna. The project commenced in October 1994, following discussions on ways in which the collaborating partners could make a practical and enduring contribution to research into population dynamics. A small team was assembled and, with assistance and advice from numerous interested parties we decided to construct the database using the popular Microsoft Access platform. After an initial design phase, the major task has been that of locating, extracting, entering and validating the data in all the various tables. Now, nearly 5000 individual datasets have been entered onto the GPDD. The Global Population Dynamics Database comprises six Tables of data and information. The tables are linked to each other as shown in the diagram shown in figure 3 of the GPDD User Guide (GPDD-User-Guide.pdf). Referential integrity is maintained through record ID numbers which are held, along with other information in the Main Table. It's structure obeys all the rules of a standard relational database.

These data include egg mass counts and adult capture-mark-recapture histories for Foothill Yellow-legged frogs at two streams in northern California. Data were collected from the South Fork Eel River and its tributary, Fox Creek, from 1993-2019. Data from Hurdygurdy Creek were collected from 2002-2008.

At the April 2023 meeting of the Population Statistics User Group, the GLA Demography team presented an overview of currently available sources of population estimates for the previous decade, namely: The original ONS mid-year population estimates (including rolled-forward estimates for 2021) Experimental outputs from the ONS's Dynamic Population Model The modelled population backseries produced by the GLA to act as inputs to our 2021-based interim population projections The slides from the presentation are published here together with packages of comparison plots for all local authority districts and regions in England to allow users to easily view some of the key differences between the sources for their own areas. The plots also include comparisons of the Dynamic Population Model's provisional 2022 estimates of births with the modelled estimates of recent births produced by the GLA.

1. Global warming challenges the persistence of local populations, not only through heat-induced stress, but also through indirect biotic changes. We study the interactive effects of temperature, competition and parasitism in the water flea Daphnia magna.

2. We carried out a common garden experiment monitoring the dynamics of Daphnia populations along a temperature gradient. Halfway through the experiment, all populations became infected with the ectoparasite Amoebidium parasiticum, enabling us to study interactive effects of temperature and parasite dynamics. We combined Integral Projection Models with epidemiological models, parameterized using the experimental data on the performance of individuals within dynamic populations. This enabled us to quantify the contribution of different vital rates and epidemiological parameters to population fitness across temperatures and Daphnia clones originating from two latitudes.

3. Interactions between temperature and parasitism shaped competition, where Belgian clones performed better under infection than Norwegian clones, mainly due to higher survival. Infected Daphnia populations performed better at higher than at lower temperatures, mainly due to an increased host capability of reducing parasite loads. Temperature strongly affected individual vital rates, but effects largely cancelled out on a population-level. In contrast, parasitism strongly reduced fitness through consistent negative effects on all vital rates. As a result, temperature-mediated parasitism was more important than the direct effects of temperature in shaping population dynamics. Both the outcome of the competition treatments and the observed extinction patterns support our modeling results.

4. Our study highlights that shifts in biotic interactions can be equally or more important for responses to warming than direct physiological effects of warming, emphasizing that we need to include such interactions in our studies to predict the competitive ability of natural populations experiencing global warming.

Admin-based population estimates for all local authorities in England and Wales from the dynamic population model

This dataset consists of spatiotemporal data on counts of the soil mite Rostrozetes ovulum (Oribatida: Haplozetidae) in central Amazonia, along with data on climate and litterfall variables used to model the mite's population dynamics.We sampled the mite in 20 transects a 800-ha forest remnant in Manaus, northern Brazil (03°04’34”S; 59°57’30”W). Each transect was 20-m long. Transects were distributed all over the forest landscape and sampled from June 2014 to June 2015. Ten transects were in valleys, while the remaining transects were located on plateaus, at least 150 m away from any drainage catchment. At each transect, one soil sample was taken each meter using an aluminum soil corer (3.5 × 3.5 × 5 cm), covering a total of 245 cm2. This material was taken to the laboratory, where the soil fauna was extracted using a Berlese-Tullgren apparatus (Franklin & Morais 2006). Each soil core was put in a sieve with mesh size 1.5 mm, which was placed in a plastic funnel. Then, the funnel was put into a wooden box, where it was fitted through a perforated polystyrene board, with a glass vial filled with 95 percent alcohol below it. Next, the box was gradually heated from ambient temperature (ca. 27ºC) to 35 – 40 ºC using light bulbs (25 W). Vials were checked daily for fallen animals. Heating lasted until the core was completely dry and animals stopped falling into the vial (7 to 10 days). The collected material was surveyed under a stereomicroscope for R. ovulum. Adult individuals were counted and preserved in 95 percent alcohol. Transects were sampled on nine months (June to September and November 2014; and January, March, April and June 2015). Therefore, the spatiotemporal coverage of our study was 20 transects × 13 months = 240 spatiotemporal units, of which 20 transects × 9 surveys = 180 counts were recorded from a total of 3600 soil cores.Environmental seasonality data were obtained from research sites nearby the study area, or estimated from such sites. Temperature and rainfall data were gathered online from the nearest station of the Brazilian Institute for Meteorology (INMET), which is 1 km from the study area. We extracted daily readings to compute cumulative rainfall (mm) and maximum daily air temperature (°C) for each transect and month covered by our sampling.Litterfall was estimated using time series of monthly litter production per habitat (plateau and valley) from the Cuieiras Biological Reserve (22,735-ha), 60 km from the study area. Litterfall was sampled with 30 PVC collectors (50 × 50 cm) randomly placed 50 cm above ground in each habitat, between May 2004 and December 2005, January 2009 and December 2010, and November 2014 and August 2015. In parallel, we obtained meteorological data from the INMET station corresponding to the litterfall measurements to model the latter as a function of (1) monthly sunlight hours, monthly cumulative rainfall and their interaction, (2) habitat (valley or plateau), and (3) time (months, coded as integers spanning the temporal coverage of the data) in order to account for any long-term trend. The model was the used to predict the expected litterfall for each spatiotemporal unit in which the mite was sampled, given the corresponding environmental conditions.

This compressed file contains models developed through ArcGIS Model Builder for reconstructing USA historical population maps, including five models (M1-M5), and the determination of census tract cutoff population, s and d parameter values.

The data presented in this repository include the following datasets used in the article Multisite integrated population model reveals diverging drivers of population dynamics in a highly mobile species, were we studied three neighbouring populations (Catalonia -CAT-, Aragon -ARA- and Valencian Community -VAL-) of the Eurasian griffon vulture (Gyps fulvus) in the northeastern Iberian Peninsula and assessed site-specific population dynamics over 14 years, while accounting for dispersal across these populations using a Bayesian multisite integrated population model.Below is a detailed description of each file:"Productivity and count data.xlsx": An Excel file containing data on reproductive pair counts and productivity (number of fledglings per monitored pair) across the three studied regions."CH.csv": Capture-recapture history data used for the multi-state model."msmodel.txt" and "msIPMscript.txt": These files contain the code for the Bayesian multi-state model and the multisite Integrated Population Model, respectively, written in JAGS language using the jagsui package."States-matrix-multistatemodel.xlsx": The states transition matrix of the multi-state model.For further details on the methods and modeling, please refer to the original article and supplementary material.

Competition is a major regulatory factor in population and community dynamics. Its effects can be either direct in interference competition or indirect in exploitative competition. The impact of exploitative competition on population dynamics has been extensively studied from empirical and theoretical points of view, but the consequences of interference competition remain poorly understood. Here we study the effect of different levels of intraspecific interference competition on the dynamics of a size-structured population. We study a physiologically structured population model accounting for direct individual interactions, allowing for a gradient from exploitative competition to interference competition. We parameterize our model with data on experimental populations of the collembolan Folsomia candida. Our model predicts contrasting dynamics, depending on the level of interference competition. With low interference, our model predicts juvenile-driven generation cycles, but interference competition tends to dampen these cycles. With intermediate interference, giant individuals emerge and start dominating the population. Finally, strong interference competition causes a novel kind of adult-driven generation cycles referred to as interference-induced cycles. Our results shed new light on the interpretation of the size-structured dynamics of natural and experimental populations.

The most important key figures about population, households, population growth, births, deaths, migration, marriages, marriage dissolutions and change of nationality of the Dutch population.

CBS is in transition towards a new classification of the population by origin. Greater emphasis is now placed on where a person was born, aside from where that person’s parents were born. The term ‘migration background’ is no longer used in this regard. The main categories western/non-western are being replaced by categories based on continents and a few countries that share a specific migration history with the Netherlands. The new classification is being implemented gradually in tables and publications on population by origin.

Data available from: 1899

Status of the figures: The 2023 figures on stillbirths and perinatal mortality are provisional, the other figures in the table are final.

Changes as of 23 December 2024: Figures with regard to population growth for 2023 and figures of the population on 1 January 2024 have been added. The provisional figures on the number of stillbirths and perinatal mortality for 2023 do not include children who were born at a gestational age that is unknown. These cases were included in the final figures for previous years. However, the provisional figures show a relatively larger number of children born at an unknown gestational age. Based on an internal analysis for 2022, it appears that in the majority of these cases, the child was born at less than 24 weeks. To ensure that the provisional 2023 figures do not overestimate the number of stillborn children born at a gestational age of over 24 weeks, children born at an unknown gestational age have now been excluded.

Changes as of 15 December 2023: None, this is a new table. This table succeeds the table Population; households and population dynamics; 1899-2019. See section 3. The following changes have been made: - The underlying topic folders regarding 'migration background' have been replaced by 'Born in the Netherlands' and 'Born abroad'; - The origin countries Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Turkey have been assigned to the continent of Asia (previously Europe).

When will the new figures be published? The figures for the population development in 2023 and the population on 1 January 2024 will be published in the second quarter of 2024.

Related article: Bergroth, C., Järv, O., Tenkanen, H., Manninen, M., Toivonen, T., 2022. A 24-hour population distribution dataset based on mobile phone data from Helsinki Metropolitan Area, Finland. Scientific Data 9, 39.

In this dataset:

We present temporally dynamic population distribution data from the Helsinki Metropolitan Area, Finland, at the level of 250 m by 250 m statistical grid cells. Three hourly population distribution datasets are provided for regular workdays (Mon – Thu), Saturdays and Sundays. The data are based on aggregated mobile phone data collected by the biggest mobile network operator in Finland. Mobile phone data are assigned to statistical grid cells using an advanced dasymetric interpolation method based on ancillary data about land cover, buildings and a time use survey. The data were validated by comparing population register data from Statistics Finland for night-time hours and a daytime workplace registry. The resulting 24-hour population data can be used to reveal the temporal dynamics of the city and examine population variations relevant to for instance spatial accessibility analyses, crisis management and planning.

Please cite this dataset as:

Bergroth, C., Järv, O., Tenkanen, H., Manninen, M., Toivonen, T., 2022. A 24-hour population distribution dataset based on mobile phone data from Helsinki Metropolitan Area, Finland. Scientific Data 9, 39. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-021-01113-4

Organization of data

The dataset is packaged into a single Zipfile Helsinki_dynpop_matrix.zip which contains following files:

HMA_Dynamic_population_24H_workdays.csv represents the dynamic population for average workday in the study area.

HMA_Dynamic_population_24H_sat.csv represents the dynamic population for average saturday in the study area.

HMA_Dynamic_population_24H_sun.csv represents the dynamic population for average sunday in the study area.

target_zones_grid250m_EPSG3067.geojson represents the statistical grid in ETRS89/ETRS-TM35FIN projection that can be used to visualize the data on a map using e.g. QGIS.

Column names

YKR_ID : a unique identifier for each statistical grid cell (n=13,231). The identifier is compatible with the statistical YKR grid cell data by Statistics Finland and Finnish Environment Institute.

H0, H1 ... H23 : Each field represents the proportional distribution of the total population in the study area between grid cells during a one-hour period. In total, 24 fields are formatted as “Hx”, where x stands for the hour of the day (values ranging from 0-23). For example, H0 stands for the first hour of the day: 00:00 - 00:59. The sum of all cell values for each field equals to 100 (i.e. 100% of total population for each one-hour period)

In order to visualize the data on a map, the result tables can be joined with the target_zones_grid250m_EPSG3067.geojson data. The data can be joined by using the field YKR_ID as a common key between the datasets.

License Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International.

Related datasets

Järv, Olle; Tenkanen, Henrikki & Toivonen, Tuuli. (2017). Multi-temporal function-based dasymetric interpolation tool for mobile phone data. Zenodo. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.252612

Tenkanen, Henrikki, & Toivonen, Tuuli. (2019). Helsinki Region Travel Time Matrix [Data set]. Zenodo. http://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3247564

These data were compiled to determine whether transient population dynamics substantially alter population growth rates of sagebrush after disturbance, impede resilience and restoration, and in turn drive ecosystem transformation. Data were collected from 2014-2016 on sagebrush population height distributions at 531 sites across the Great Basin that had burned and were subsequently reseeded by the BLM. These data include field data on sagebrush density in 6 size classes and site attributes (seeding year, sampling year, random site designation, elevation, seeding rate). Also included are modeled spring soil moisture data at each site from the year of seeding to sampling. This data release includes associated software code allows the inference of demographic rates (survival, reproduction, and individual growth) of sagebrush using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo approaches in Stan (https://mc-stan.org/).

Datasets archived here consist of all data analyzed in Duan et al. 2015 from Journal of Applied Ecology. Specifically, these data were collected from annual sampling of emerald ash borer (Agrilus planipennis) immature stages and associated parasitoids on infested ash trees (Fraxinus) in Southern Michigan, where three introduced biological control agents had been released between 2007 - 2010. Detailed data collection procedures can be found in Duan et al. 2012, 2013, and 2015. Resources in this dataset:Resource Title: Duan J Data on EAB larval density-bird predation and unknown factor from Journal of Applied Ecology. File Name: Duan J Data on EAB larval density-bird predation and unknown factor from Journal of Applied Ecology.xlsxResource Description: This data set is used to calculate mean EAB density (per m2 of ash phloem area), bird predation rate and mortality rate caused by unknown factors and analyzed with JMP (10.2) scripts for mixed effect linear models in Duan et al. 2015 (Journal of Applied Ecology).Resource Title: DUAN J Data on Parasitism L1-L2 Excluded from Journal of Applied Ecology. File Name: DUAN J Data on Parasitism L1-L2 Excluded from Journal of Applied Ecology.xlsxResource Description: This data set is used to construct life tables and calculation of net population growth rate of emerald ash borer for each site. The net population growth rates were then analyzed with JMP (10.2) scripts for mixed effect linear models in Duan et al. 2015 (Journal of Applied Ecology).Resource Title: DUAN J Data on EAB Life Tables Calculation from Journal of Applied Ecology. File Name: DUAN J Data on EAB Life Tables Calculation from Journal of Applied Ecology.xlsxResource Description: This data set is used to calculate parasitism rate of EAB larvae for each tree and then analyzed with JMP (10.2) scripts for mixed effect linear models on in Duan et al. 2015 (Journal of Applied Ecology).Resource Title: READ ME for Emerald Ash Borer Biocontrol Study from Journal of Applied Ecology. File Name: READ_ME_for_Emerald_Ash_Borer_Biocontrol_Study_from_Journal_of_Applied_Ecology.docxResource Description: Additional information and definitions for the variables/content in the three Emerald Ash Borer Biocontrol Study tables: Data on EAB Life Tables Calculation Data on EAB larval density-bird predation and unknown factor Data on Parasitism L1-L2 Excluded from Journal of Applied Ecology Resource Title: Data Dictionary for Emerald Ash Borer Biocontrol Study from Journal of Applied Ecology. File Name: AshBorerAnd Parasitoids_DataDictionary.csvResource Description: CSV data dictionary for the variables/content in the three Emerald Ash Borer Biocontrol Study tables: Data on EAB Life Tables Calculation Data on EAB larval density-bird predation and unknown factor Data on Parasitism L1-L2 Excluded from Journal of Applied Ecology Fore more information see the related READ ME file.

Theory suggests that the drivers of demographic variation and local adaptation are shared and may feedback on one other. Despite some evidence for these links in controlled settings, the relationship between local adaptation and demography remains largely unexplored in natural conditions. Using 10 years of demographic data and two reciprocal transplant experiments, we tested predictions about the relationship between the magnitude of local adaptation and demographic variation (population growth rates and their elasticities to vital rates) across 10 populations of a well-studied annual plant. In both years, we found a strong unimodal relationship between mean home-away local adaptation and stochastic population growth rates. Other predicted links were either weakly or not supported by our data. Our results suggest that declining and rapidly growing populations exhibit reduced local adaptation, potentially due to maladaptation and relaxed selection, respectively., This dataset includes long-term data collected using observations and environmetnal sensors, data on population dynamics derived from field census data, and data from 2 years of reciprocal transplants in field conditions. Data describing population dynamics have been processed from raw census data using matrix population models. All other data processing is performed using code that is archived along with the data., Annotated code necessary to reproduce the analyses and figures presented in the associated manuscript are included in this archive., # Data from: Local adaptation is highest in populations with stable long-term growth

Lauren N. Carley et al.

lauren.n.carley@gmail.com

STRUCTURE OF THIS ARCHIVE:

Details on the purpose of each file in these folders, and their subdirectories, is provided below, following the general outline:

• Clarkia-LTREB-transplant-archive/
  • README.txt
  • 1-data/
  • 2-analyses/
  • 2a-seed-prediction/
  • 2b-aster/
  • 2c-dist-calcs/
    • out/
  • 2d-dist-analyses/
  • 2e-permutation-tests/
    • Fdists/
  • 3-figures/
  • supplemental/

NOTE: Throughout the whole directory, variables in datasets are unitless unless otherwise defined, and "NA" values represent missing data unless otherwise defined.

Clarkia-LTREB-transplant-archive-R2/

This directory contains all of the other subdirectories, which take you through data processing, modeling, and analysis step by step.

It also contains one file:

README.txt

You are curren...

The data presented below represent the predicted number of people per ~100 m pixel as estimated using the random forest (RF) model as described in Stevens, et al. (In Press).

1. Informed conservation and management of wildlife require sufficient monitoring to understand population dynamics and to direct conservation actions. Because resources available for monitoring are limited, conservation practitioners must strive to make monitoring as cost-effective as possible.
2. Our focus was on assessing the value of monitoring to the adaptive harvest management (AHM) program for pink-footed geese (Anser brachyrhynchus). We conducted a retrospective analysis to assess the costs and benefits of a capture-mark-resight (CMR) program, a productivity survey, and biannual population censuses. Using all available data, we fit an integrated population model (IPM) and assumed that inference derived from it represented the benchmark against which reduced monitoring was to be judged. We then fit IPMs to reduced sets of monitoring data and compared their estimates of demographic parameters and expected management performance against the benchmark IPM.
3. Costs and the precision...