Before 2025, the world's total population is expected to reach eight billion. Furthermore, it is predicted to reach over 10 billion in 2060, before slowing again as global birth rates are expected to decrease. Moreover, it is still unclear to what extent global warming will have an impact on population development. A high share of the population increase is expected to happen on the African continent.

The world's population first reached one billion people in 1803, and reach eight billion in 2023, and will peak at almost 11 billion by the end of the century. Although it took thousands of years to reach one billion people, it did so at the beginning of a phenomenon known as the demographic transition; from this point onwards, population growth has skyrocketed, and since the 1960s the population has increased by one billion people every 12 to 15 years. The demographic transition sees a sharp drop in mortality due to factors such as vaccination, sanitation, and improved food supply; the population boom that follows is due to increased survival rates among children and higher life expectancy among the general population; and fertility then drops in response to this population growth. Regional differences The demographic transition is a global phenomenon, but it has taken place at different times across the world. The industrialized countries of Europe and North America were the first to go through this process, followed by some states in the Western Pacific. Latin America's population then began growing at the turn of the 20th century, but the most significant period of global population growth occurred as Asia progressed in the late-1900s. As of the early 21st century, almost two thirds of the world's population live in Asia, although this is set to change significantly in the coming decades. Future growth The growth of Africa's population, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa, will have the largest impact on global demographics in this century. From 2000 to 2100, it is expected that Africa's population will have increased by a factor of almost five. It overtook Europe in size in the late 1990s, and overtook the Americas a decade later. In contrast to Africa, Europe's population is now in decline, as birth rates are consistently below death rates in many countries, especially in the south and east, resulting in natural population decline. Similarly, the population of the Americas and Asia are expected to go into decline in the second half of this century, and only Oceania's population will still be growing alongside Africa. By 2100, the world's population will have over three billion more than today, with the vast majority of this concentrated in Africa. Demographers predict that climate change is exacerbating many of the challenges that currently hinder progress in Africa, such as political and food instability; if Africa's transition is prolonged, then it may result in further population growth that would place a strain on the region's resources, however, curbing this growth earlier would alleviate some of the pressure created by climate change.

This graph shows population projections for the United States of America. The estimated population of the USA in 2050 is 398 million residents. Population The U.S. Census Bureau presents annual projections for the growth of the U.S. population up to the year 2060. By 2050, it is estimated that the American population will surpass 398 million citizens. The U.S. census also projects a regressing annual growth rate, starting at 0.8 percent in 2015 and decreasing to 0.46 percent by 2060.

The UN population division publishes population projections for the entire world up to the year 2100. The United Nations also projects a regressing annual growth rate of the world population. Between 2015 and 2020, the population is expected to increase by 1.04 percent annually. Around 2060, the annual growth rate will have decreased to 0.34 percent.

Globally, about 25 percent of the population is under 15 years of age and 10 percent is over 65 years of age. Africa has the youngest population worldwide. In Sub-Saharan Africa, more than 40 percent of the population is below 15 years, and only three percent are above 65, indicating the low life expectancy in several of the countries. In Europe, on the other hand, a higher share of the population is above 65 years than the population under 15 years. Fertility rates The high share of children and youth in Africa is connected to the high fertility rates on the continent. For instance, South Sudan and Niger have the highest population growth rates globally. However, about 50 percent of the world’s population live in countries with low fertility, where women have less than 2.1 children. Some countries in Europe, like Latvia and Lithuania, have experienced a population decline of one percent, and in the Cook Islands, it is even above two percent. In Europe, the majority of the population was previously working-aged adults with few dependents, but this trend is expected to reverse soon, and it is predicted that by 2050, the older population will outnumber the young in many developed countries. Growing global population As of 2025, there are 8.1 billion people living on the planet, and this is expected to reach more than nine billion before 2040. Moreover, the global population is expected to reach 10 billions around 2060, before slowing and then even falling slightly by 2100. As the population growth rates indicate, a significant share of the population increase will happen in Africa.

Midyear population estimates and projections for all countries and areas of the world with a population of 5,000 or more // Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division, International Programs Center// Note: Total population available from 1950 to 2100 for 227 countries and areas. Other demographic variables available from base year to 2100. Base year varies by country and therefore data are not available for all years for all countries. For the United States, total population available from 1950-2060, and other demographic variables available from 1980-2060. See methodology at https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/international-programs/about/idb.html

The world population surpassed eight billion people in 2022, having doubled from its figure less than 50 years previously. Looking forward, it is projected that the world population will reach nine billion in 2038, and 10 billion in 2060, but it will peak around 10.3 billion in the 2080s before it then goes into decline. Regional variations The global population has seen rapid growth since the early 1800s, due to advances in areas such as food production, healthcare, water safety, education, and infrastructure, however, these changes did not occur at a uniform time or pace across the world. Broadly speaking, the first regions to undergo their demographic transitions were Europe, North America, and Oceania, followed by Latin America and Asia (although Asia's development saw the greatest variation due to its size), while Africa was the last continent to undergo this transformation. Because of these differences, many so-called "advanced" countries are now experiencing population decline, particularly in Europe and East Asia, while the fastest population growth rates are found in Sub-Saharan Africa. In fact, the roughly two billion difference in population between now and the 2080s' peak will be found in Sub-Saharan Africa, which will rise from 1.2 billion to 3.2 billion in this time (although populations in other continents will also fluctuate). Changing projections The United Nations releases their World Population Prospects report every 1-2 years, and this is widely considered the foremost demographic dataset in the world. However, recent years have seen a notable decline in projections when the global population will peak, and at what number. Previous reports in the 2010s had suggested a peak of over 11 billion people, and that population growth would continue into the 2100s, however a sooner and shorter peak is now projected. Reasons for this include a more rapid population decline in East Asia and Europe, particularly China, as well as a prolongued development arc in Sub-Saharan Africa.

The global population has grown rapidly since 1950, from *** billion to over eight billion in 2023. The age distribution shows that the number of people within all age groups increased over the period, with the two youngest age groups being the largest in 2023. Population growth driven by development in Asia The increasing global population is explained by economic development and a coinciding improvement in living conditions in several parts of the world, particularly in Asia. Improvements in sanitary conditions, the rollout of vaccination programs, and better medical treatment brought down death rates around the world. China saw fast economic development from the early 1980s to the late 2010s, going hand in hand with a rapidly increasing population. Furthermore, the population of India has grown rapidly since it gained independence from the British Empire in the late 1940s, now being the largest in the world. Most of the future population growth will happen in Africa The global population is forecast to continue to increase over the coming decades, set to reach over 10 billion people by 2060. Most of this increase is projected to occur on the African continent, as many African countries are expected to experience an improvement in living standards. In 2022, over ** percent of the population in Sub-Saharan Africa was below 15 years old.

From now until 2100, India and China will remain the most populous countries in the world, however China's population decline has already started, and it is on course to fall by around 50 percent in the 2090s; while India's population decline is projected to begin in the 2060s. Of the 10 most populous countries in the world in 2100, five will be located in Asia, four in Africa, as well as the United States. Rapid growth in Africa Rapid population growth across Africa will see the continent's population grow from around 1.5 billion people in 2024 to 3.8 billion in 2100. Additionally, unlike China or India, population growth in many of these countries is not expected to go into decline, and instead is expected to continue well into the 2100s. Previous estimates had projected these countries' populations would be much higher by 2100 (the 2019 report estimated Nigeria's population would exceed 650 million), yet the increased threat of the climate crisis and persistent instability is delaying demographic development and extending population growth. The U.S. as an outlier Compared to the nine other largest populations in 2100, the United States stands out as it is more demographically advanced, politically stable, and economically stronger. However, while most other so-called "advanced countries" are projected to see their population decline drastically in the coming decades, the U.S. population is projected to continue growing into the 2100s. This will largely be driven by high rates of immigration into the U.S., which will drive growth despite fertility rates being around 1.6 births per woman (below the replacement level of 2.1 births per woman), and the slowing rate of life expectancy. Current projections estimate the U.S. will have a net migration rate over 1.2 million people per year for the remainder of the century.

Projections estimate that the population in Italy will decrease in the following years. In January 2025, the Italian population added up to 59 million people, but in 2030 Italians will be 58 million individuals. Twenty years later, the population will be around 52 million people. Low birth rate and old population The birth rate in Italy has constantly dropped in the last years. In 2023, 6.4 children were born per 1,000 inhabitants, three babies less than in 2002. Nationwide, the highest number of births was registered in the southern regions, whereas central Italy had the lowest number of children born every 1,000 people. More specifically, the birth rate in the south stood at 7 infants, while in the center it was equal to 5.9 births. Consequently, the population in Italy has aged over the last decade. Between 2002 and 2024, the age distribution of the Italian population showed a growing share of people aged 65 years and older. As a result, the share of young people decreased. The European exception Similarly, the population in Europe is estimated to decrease in the coming years. In 2024, there were 740 million people living in Europe. In 2100, the figure is expected to drop to 586 million inhabitants. However, projections of the world population suggest that Europe might be the only continent experiencing a population decrease. For instance, the population in Africa could grow from 1.41 billion people in 2022 to 3.92 billion individuals in 2100, the fastest population growth worldwide.

Some of the SNK rasters intentionally do not align or have the same extent. These rasters were not snapped to a common raster per the authors discretion. Please review selected rasters prior to use. These varying alignments are a result of the use of differing source data sets and all products derived from them. We recommend that users snap or align rasters as best suits their own projects. - This set of files includes downscaled projections of decadal means of monthly total precipitation (in millimeters, no unit conversion necessary) for each month of decades 2020-2029, 2050-2059, and 2060-2069 at 2x2 kilometer spatial resolution. Each file represents a mean monthly total in a given decade.

The spatial extent is clipped to a Seward REA boundary bounding box.

Overview:

Most of SNAP#8217;s climate projections come in multiple versions. There are 5 climate models, one 5 model average, 3 climate scenarios, 12 months, and 100 years. This amounts to 21,600 files per variable. Some datasets are derived products such as monthly decadal averages or specific seasonal averages, among others. This specific dataset is one subset of those.

Each set of files originates from one of five top ranked global circulation models or is calculated as a 5 Model Average. These models are referred to by the acronyms: cccma_cgcm31, mpi_echam5, gfdl_cm21, ukmo_hadcm3, miroc3_2_medres, or 5modelavg.

For a description of the model selection process, please see Walsh et al. 2008. Global Climate Model Performance over Alaska and Greenland. Journal of Climate. v. 21 pp. 6156-6174

Each set of files also represents one projected emission scenario referred to as: sresb1, sresa2, or sresa1b.

Emmission scenarios in brief:

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) created a range of scenarios to explore alternative development pathways, covering a wide range of demographic, economic and technological driving forces and resulting greenhouse gas emissions. The B1 scenario describes a convergent world, a global population that peaks in mid-century, with rapid changes in economic structures toward a service and information economy. The Scenario A1B assumes a world of very rapid economic growth, a global population that peaks in mid-century, rapid introduction of new and more efficient technologies, and a balance between fossil fuels and other energy sources. The A2 scenario describes a very heterogeneous world with high population growth, slow economic development and slow technological change.

These files are bias corrected and downscaled via the delta method using PRISM (http:prism.oregonstate.edu) 1961-1990 2km data as baseline climate. Absolute anomalies are utilized for temperature variables. Proportional anomalies are utilized for precipitation variables. Please see http:www.snap.uaf.eduabout for a description of the downscaling process.

File naming scheme:

[variable]_[metric]_[units]_[format]_[assessmentReport] [groupModel][scenario]_[timeFrame].[fileFormat]

[variable] pr, tas, logs, dot, dof, veg, age, dem etc

[metric] mean, total, decadal mean monthly mean, etc

[units] mm, C, in, km

[format] optional, if layer is formatted for special use

[assessmentReport] ar4, ar5

[groupModel] cccma_cgcm31, mpi_echam5, gfdl_cm21, ukmo_hadcm3, miroc3_2_medres, 5modelavg, cru_ts30

[scenario] sresb1, sresa2, sresa1b

[timeFrame] yyyy or mm_yyyy or yyyy_yyyy or mm_yyyy_mm_yyyy

[fileFormat] txt, png, pdf, bmp, tif

examples:

tas_mean_C_ar4_cccma_cgcm3_1_sresb1_05_2034.tif

this file represents mean May, 2034 temperature from the 4th Assessment Report on Climate Change from the CCCMA modeling group, using their CGCM3.1 model, under the B1 climate scenario.

pr_total_mm_ar4_5modelAvg_sresa1b_09_2077.tif

this file represents total September, 2077 precipitation from the 4th Assessment Report on Climate Change from the 5 Model Average, under the A1B climate scenario.

tas = near-surface air temperature

pr = precipitation including both liquid and solid phases

There are approximately 8.16 billion people living in the world today, a figure that shows a dramatic increase since the beginning of the Common Era. Since the 1970s, the global population has also more than doubled in size. It is estimated that the world's population will reach and surpass 10 billion people by 2060 and plateau at around 10.3 billion in the 2080s, before it then begins to fall. Asia When it comes to number of inhabitants per continent, Asia is the most populous continent in the world by a significant margin, with roughly 60 percent of the world's population living there. Similar to other global regions, a quarter of inhabitants in Asia are under 15 years of age. The most populous nations in the world are India and China respectively; each inhabit more than three times the amount of people than the third-ranked United States. 10 of the 20 most populous countries in the world are found in Asia. Africa Interestingly, the top 20 countries with highest population growth rate are mainly countries in Africa. This is due to the present stage of Sub-Saharan Africa's demographic transition, where mortality rates are falling significantly, although fertility rates are yet to drop and match this. As much of Asia is nearing the end of its demographic transition, population growth is predicted to be much slower in this century than in the previous; in contrast, Africa's population is expected to reach almost four billion by the year 2100. Unlike demographic transitions in other continents, Africa's population development is being influenced by climate change on a scale unseen by most other global regions. Rising temperatures are exacerbating challenges such as poor sanitation, lack of infrastructure, and political instability, which have historically hindered societal progress. It remains to be seen how Africa and the world at large adapts to this crisis as it continues to cause drought, desertification, natural disasters, and climate migration across the region.

From 2022 to 2060, the worldwide population of Muslims is expected to increase by 45.7 percent. For the same period, the global population of Buddhists is expected to decrease by 12.2 percent.

The median age in India was 27 years old in 2020, meaning half the population was older than that, half younger. This figure was lowest in 1970, at 18.1 years, and was projected to increase to 47.8 years old by 2100. Aging in India India has the second largest population in the world, after China. Because of the significant population growth of the past years, the age distribution remains skewed in favor of the younger age bracket. This tells a story of rapid population growth, but also of a lower life expectancy. Economic effects of a young population Many young people means that the Indian economy must support a large number of students, who demand education from the economy but cannot yet work. Educating the future workforce will be important, because the economy is growing as well and is one of the largest in the world. Failing to do this could lead to high youth unemployment and political consequences. However, a productive and young workforce could provide huge economic returns for India.

Hong Kong’s population grew from around **** million in 1980 to around **** million at the end of 2024. Despite a slight decrease in population in 2020 and 2021, the population in Hong Kong has continued to increase. Population development in Hong Kong The population increase was not only due to natural population growth but also related to a significant inflow of immigrants from mainland China. As most immigrants were comparatively young, they also contributed to a higher birth rate. The total fertility rate in Hong Kong, however, which denotes the average number of children a woman has during her lifetime, already fell below the replacement level of around *** children per woman in 1980. Today, Hong Kong has one of the lowest fertility rates in the world. Nevertheless, the population of Hong Kong is still projected to continue growing due to immigration and reach *** million people in 2046. Age structure of Hong Kong’s population Hong Kong has a rapidly aging society. The median age of the population has more than doubled from **** years in 1970 to **** years in 2020, and it is expected to reach nearly ** years in 2060. Today, around two-thirds of the population is still in their working age, but the share of people aged 65 or older is increasing. Hong Kong has one of the highest life expectancies in the world, reaching around ** years for women in 2024.

In 2024, around **** million babies were born in China. The number of births has increased slightly from **** million in the previous year, but is much lower than the ***** million births recorded in 2016. Demographic development in China In 2022, the Chinese population decreased for the first time in decades, and population decline is expected to accelerate in the upcoming years. To curb the negative effects of an aging population, the Chinese government decided in 2013 to gradually relax the so called one-child-policy, which had been in effect since 1979. From 2016 onwards, parents in China were allowed to have two children in general. However, as the recent figures of births per year reveal, this policy change had only short-term effects on the general birth rate: the number of births slightly increased from 2014 onwards, but then started to fell again in 2018. In 2024, China was the second most populous country in the world, overtaken by India that year. China’s aging population The Chinese society is aging rapidly and facing a serious demographic shift towards older age groups. The median age of China’s population has increased massively from about ** years in 1970 to **** years in 2020 and is projected to rise continuously until 2080. In 2020, approximately **** percent of the Chinese were 60 years and older, a figure that is forecast to rise as high as ** percent by 2060. This shift in demographic development will increase social and elderly support expenditure of the society as a whole. One measure for this social imbalance is the old-age dependency ratio, measuring the relationship between economic dependent older age groups and the working-age population. The old-age dependency ratio in China is expected to soar to ** percent in 2060, implying that by then three working-age persons will have to support two elderly persons.