This data package includes the underlying data to replicate the charts and calculations presented in The International Economic Implications of a Second Trump Presidency, PIIE Working Paper 24-20.

If you use the data, please cite as:

McKibbin, Warwick, Megan Hogan, and Marcus Noland. 2024. The International Economic Implications of a Second Trump Presidency. PIIE Working Paper 24-20. Washington: Peterson Institute for International Economics.

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the United States contracted 0.50 percent in the first quarter of 2025 over the previous quarter. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - United States GDP Growth Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

United States The Economist YouGov Polls: 2024 Presidential Election: Donald Trump data was reported at 46.000 % in 29 Oct 2024. This stayed constant from the previous number of 46.000 % for 22 Oct 2024. United States The Economist YouGov Polls: 2024 Presidential Election: Donald Trump data is updated weekly, averaging 43.000 % from May 2023 (Median) to 29 Oct 2024, with 61 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 46.000 % in 29 Oct 2024 and a record low of 38.000 % in 31 Oct 2023. United States The Economist YouGov Polls: 2024 Presidential Election: Donald Trump data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by YouGov PLC. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.PR004: The Economist YouGov Polls: 2024 Presidential Election (Discontinued). If an election for president were going to be held now and the Democratic nominee was Joe Biden and the Republican nominee was Donald Trump, would you vote for...

This data package includes the underlying data to replicate the charts, tables, and calculations presented in The US Revenue Implications of President Trump’s 2025 Tariffs, PIIE Briefing 25-2.

If you use the data, please cite as:

McKibbin, Warwick, and Geoffrey Shuetrim. 2025. The US Revenue Implications of President Trump’s 2025 Tariffs. PIIE Briefing 25-2. Washington: Peterson Institute for International Economics.

In 2023 the real gross domestic product (GDP) of the United States increased by 2.5 percent compared to 2022. This rate of annual growth indicates a return to economy normalcy after 2020 saw a dramatic decline in the GDP growth rate due to the the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, and high growth in 2021.

What does GDP growth mean?

Essentially, the annual GDP of the U.S. is the monetary value of all goods and services produced within the country over a given year. On the surface, an increase in GDP therefore means that more goods and services have been produced between one period than another. In the case of annualized GDP, it is compared to the previous year. In 2023, for example, the U.S. GDP grew 2.5 percent compared to 2022.

Countries with highest GDP growth rate

Although the United States has by far the largest GDP of any country, it does not have the highest GDP growth, nor the highest GDP at purchasing power parity. In 2021, Libya had the highest growth in GDP, growing more than 177 percent compared to 2020. Furthermore, Luxembourg had the highest GDP per capita at purchasing power parity, a better measure of living standards than nominal or real GDP.

As of 2022, former President Bill Clinton was the president who created the most jobs in the United States, at 18.6 million jobs created during his eight year term in office. Former President Ronald Reagan created the second most jobs during his term, at 16.5 million.

The Politbarometer has been conducted since 1977 on an almost monthly basis by the Research Group for Elections (Forschungsgruppe Wahlen) for the Second German Television (ZDF). Since 1990, this database has also been available for the new German states. The survey focuses on the opinions and attitudes of the voting population in the Federal Republic on current political topics, parties, politicians, and voting behavior. From 1990 to 1995 and from 1999 onward, the Politbarometer surveys were conducted separately in the eastern and western federal states (Politbarometer East and Politbarometer West). The separate monthly surveys of a year are integrated into a cumulative data set that includes all surveys of a year and all variables of the respective year. The Politbarometer short surveys, collected with varying frequency throughout the year, are integrated into the annual cumulation starting from 2003.

The President’s Malaria Initiative (PMI) is a U.S. Government initiative designed to reduce malaria deaths and illnesses in target countries in sub-Saharan Africa with a long-term vision of a world without malaria. This asset contains two data files that hold budget code information for projects with the associated FY18 budget and activity descriptions. USAID has made these data publicly available since 2006 as part of the Country Malaria Operating Plans. The data are updated annually.

Few issues are more salient for voters or more important in political decision-making than economic conditions, and no American public official is more closely associated with the economy than the president. Existing scholarship disagrees, however, about how partisan loyalties affect economic evaluations. We study how partisan control of the presidency affects economic perceptions using eight waves of panel data collected around the 2016 presidential election from a national probability sample. We find that while individual-level perceptions are largely stable across time, the change in partisan control of the White House was associated with more positive evaluations among Republicans and more negative evaluations among Democrats. These effects are statistically significant yet substantively modest in magnitude. Our results indicate that partisanship is less strongly associated with economic assessments than some previous scholarship has claimed and suggest more sanguine conclusions about the prospects for presidential accountability even in a partisan era.

Over the course of their first terms in office, no U.S. president in the past 100 years saw as much of a decline in stock prices as Herbert Hoover, and none saw as much of an increase as Franklin D. Roosevelt (FDR) - these were the two presidents in office during the Great Depression. While Hoover is not generally considered to have caused the Wall Street Crash in 1929, less than a year into his term in office, he is viewed as having contributed to its fall, and exacerbating the economic collapse that followed. In contrast, Roosevelt is viewed as overseeing the economic recovery and restoring faith in the stock market played an important role in this.

By the end of Hoover's time in office, stock prices were 82 percent lower than when he entered the White House, whereas prices had risen by 237 percent by the end of Roosevelt's first term. While this is the largest price gain of any president within just one term, it is important to note that stock prices were valued at 317 on the Dow Jones index when Hoover took office, but just 51 when FDR took office four years later - stock prices had peaked in August 1929 at 380 on the Dow Jones index, but the highest they ever reached under FDR was 187, and it was not until late 1954 that they reached pre-Crash levels once more.

United States The Economist YouGov Polls: 2024 Presidential Election: Cornel West data was reported at 0.000 % in 29 Oct 2024. This stayed constant from the previous number of 0.000 % for 22 Oct 2024. United States The Economist YouGov Polls: 2024 Presidential Election: Cornel West data is updated weekly, averaging 1.000 % from Mar 2024 (Median) to 29 Oct 2024, with 33 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 1.000 % in 15 Oct 2024 and a record low of 0.000 % in 29 Oct 2024. United States The Economist YouGov Polls: 2024 Presidential Election: Cornel West data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by YouGov PLC. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.PR004: The Economist YouGov Polls: 2024 Presidential Election (Discontinued). If an election for president were going to be held now and the Democratic nominee was Joe Biden and the Republican nominee was Donald Trump, would you vote for...

Are leaders held accountable for inherited conditions, and does accountability increase with time in office? I combine hundreds of opinion polls to test how new presidents are rewarded or punished for current economic perceptions, and how these judgments evolve over time. I find the economy influences voter evaluations in a president's first year, that it influences evaluations more so in the second year, and that it does not influence evaluations any more in later years. Surveys of governor approval and state economic conditions yield similar results, as does an original survey experiment exploiting the varying tenure of state governors in the wake of the 2018 elections. While raising questions about voter competence, these findings also suggest leaders have incentives to spread effort more broadly over their terms.

The United States recorded a Government Debt to GDP of 124.30 percent of the country's Gross Domestic Product in 2024. This dataset provides - United States Government Debt To GDP - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

Recent efforts by Baker, Bloom, and Davis (2013) make it possible to evaluate whether changes in economic policy uncertainty have any bearing on the actions taken by political officials. This current project assesses whether economic policy uncertainty in the United States compels the U.S. president to increase the linguistic and substantive simplicity of public remarks. In an attempt to either decrease rising economic policy uncertainty, or stop the occurrence of economic policy uncertainty altogether, the president can choose to discuss issues in a very simple way. Time series analyses of monthly information spanning between 1993 and 2013 indicate that an increase in the economic policy uncertainty index results in an increase in presidential rhetorical simplicity. This provides an initial indication that the rhetorical strategy of linguistic and substantive simplicity employed by presidents can be shaped by economic conditions.

An executive order is one of the most commonly used form of administrative action taken by the President of the United States. It is where an order or directive regarding the management of the U.S. government is signed into law by the president. Executive orders are generally used by presidents to influence U.S. laws and the administration of the country, without the need for a vote in Congress or the Supreme Court; although these orders are subject to judicial review, and can be challenged by the courts or another branch of government. If deemed unlawful or unconstitutional, the order will be revoked or cancelled, and a president may also revoke, cancel or amend any executive order that they, or any other presidents, have made. The U.S.' first 25 presidents signed a combined total of 1,262 executive orders in roughly 112 years, averaging at around 12 per year, however there was a large increase in the number of orders issued in the first half of the twentieth century. Theodore Roosevelt, the 26th U.S. president, was the first to issue more than one thousand executive orders alone; while Woodrow Wilson, who was in office during the First World War, signed more than 1,800. Franklin D. Roosevelt The president who signed the most executive orders was Franklin D. Roosevelt (FDR), who, during his twelve years in office, signed more than a quarter of all executive orders ever published. While FDR did serve over four years more than any other president, he still issued the highest number of average annual executive orders, with over three hundred per year. FDR was in office throughout most of the Second World War, although the majority of these orders came in his earlier years in office (more than a thousand orders were signed in 1933 and 1934), as he used his New Deal policies to lead the U.S. through its economic recovery from the Great Depression. Roosevelt's most controversial order, however, did relate to the Second World War; this was Order 9066, which saw approximately 120,000 people of Japanese descent, and almost 15,000 ethnic Germans and Italians, interned in concentration camps for almost three years.

Notable orders Arguably, the most famous and well known executive order was Abraham Lincoln's Emancipation Proclamation** in 1862, which changed the legal status of all enslaved people in the Confederate states during the Civil War, and declared them free in the eyes of the Union. A number of other orders also marked notable milestones in African-American civil rights; including the desegregation of the U.S. military by President Truman in 1948, and the desegregation of public schools by President Eisenhower in 1957. While the number of orders issued by presidents has decreased since the Eisenhower administration, recent presidents have generally issued between 100 and 200 orders during each term. Examples of more controversial orders from recent years include George W. Bush's Order 13233, which tightened restrictions on the accessibility of former U.S. presidents' records, and Donald Trump's Order 13769, which placed travel bans on citizens from a number of Muslim-majority countries; Bush's Order was eventually revoked by Barack Obama the day after his inauguration, while Trump's travel ban was one of several executive orders repealed by Joe Biden on his first day in office.

Adding to national debt is an inevitable fact of being President of the United States. The extent to which debt rises under any sitting president depends not only on the policy and spending choices they have made, but also the choices made by presidents and congresses that have come before them. Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush President Ronald Reagan increased the U.S. debt by around **** trillion U.S. dollars, or ****** percent. This is often attributed to "Reaganomics," in which Reagan implemented significant supply-side economic policies in which he reduced government regulation, cut taxes, and tightened the money supply. Spending increased under President George W. Bush in light of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. To finance the wars, President Bush chose to borrow the money, rather than use war bonds or increase taxes, unlike previous war-time presidents. Additionally, Bush introduced a number of tax cuts, and oversaw the beginning of the 2008 financial crisis. Barack Obama President Obama inherited both wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and the financial crisis. The Obama administration also did not increase taxes to pay for the wars, and additionally passed expensive legislation to kickstart the economy following the economic crash, as well as the Affordable Care Act in 2010. The ACA expanded healthcare coverage to cover more than ** million more Americans through programs like Medicare and Medicaid. Though controversial at the time, more than half of Americans have a favorable view of the ACA in 2023. Additionally, he signed legislation making the W. Bush-era tax cuts permanent.

According to a poll conducted at the end of 2022, Americans were feeling quite pessimistic about the coming year. 90 percent of Americans felt negatively about the prospect of political conflict in 2023.

The Economy 2022 was a difficult year for many Americans, as it was for many around the world. After a year of high inflation, record fuel prices, and decreased financial security, the country greeted 2023 with high rates of skepticism and caution. Although the U.S. economy itself has experienced a strong rebound from the pandemic recession compared with other major economies, a sustained decline in consumer spending power thanks to wage growth not keeping pace with inflation has everyday Americans feeling the pinch.

U.S. political landscape The political scene in the U.S. also had a tumultuous few years in the lead up to 2023. The election of Donald Trump as the 45th President of the United States in 2016 left many voters reeling and the country more divided than ever. The beginning of 2021 was market by the January 6th attack on the Capitol, as well as the inauguration of Joe Biden. Additionally, the country continued to grapple with a politicized response to the COVID-19 pandemic and associated restrictions. 2022 began with the Russian invasion of Ukraine, ushering in the beginning of a global fuel and inflation crisis. In the midst of hardening economic conditions, the Supreme Court overturned its ruling on Roe v. Wade, returning the power to decide abortion restrictions to state legislatures.

The 2022 midterm elections saw Republicans win enough seats to take back control of the House of Representatives, but saw the GOP ultimately underperform compared to predictions at the time. The first day of the 2023 congressional term was marked by the inability of the Republican Party to unify itself behind one candidate for Speaker of the House, leading to a once in a century multi-round of Speaker elections. With new members of the House not able to be sworn in until a Speaker is elected, 2023 had a difficult start.

As of the third quarter of 2024, the GDP of the U.S. grew by 2.8 percent from the second quarter of 2024. GDP, or gross domestic product, is effectively a count of the total goods and services produced in a country over a certain period of time. It is calculated by first adding together a country’s total consumer spending, government spending, investments and exports; and then deducting the country’s imports. The values in this statistic are the change in ‘constant price’ or ‘real’ GDP, which means this basic calculation is also adjusted to factor in the regular price changes measured by the U.S. inflation rate. Because of this adjustment, U.S. real annual GDP will differ from the U.S. 'nominal' annual GDP for all years except the baseline from which inflation is calculated. What is annualized GDP? The important thing to note about the growth rates in this statistic is that the values are annualized, meaning the U.S. economy has not actually contracted or grown by the percentage shown. For example, the fall of 29.9 percent in the second quarter of 2020 did not mean GDP is suddenly one third less than a year before. In fact, it means that if the decline seen during that quarter continued at the same rate for a full year, then GDP would decline by this amount. Annualized values can therefore exaggerate the effect of short-term economic shocks, as they only look at economic output during a limited period. This effect can be seen by comparing annualized quarterly growth rates with the annual GDP growth rates for each calendar year.

United States The Economist YouGov Polls: 2024 Presidential Election: Not Sure data was reported at 3.000 % in 29 Oct 2024. This stayed constant from the previous number of 3.000 % for 22 Oct 2024. United States The Economist YouGov Polls: 2024 Presidential Election: Not Sure data is updated weekly, averaging 5.000 % from May 2023 (Median) to 29 Oct 2024, with 61 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 10.000 % in 28 May 2024 and a record low of 3.000 % in 29 Oct 2024. United States The Economist YouGov Polls: 2024 Presidential Election: Not Sure data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by YouGov PLC. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.PR004: The Economist YouGov Polls: 2024 Presidential Election (Discontinued). If an election for president were going to be held now and the Democratic nominee was Joe Biden and the Republican nominee was Donald Trump, would you vote for...

As of November 2020, 40 percent of respondents said they think the U.S. economy will get worse if Donald Trump is reelected president in 2020. However, nine percent said that they believe the U.S. economy will stay the same.