In 2024, the gross domestic product (GDP) of the United Kingdom grew by 0.9 percent and is expected to grow by just one percent in 2025 and by 1.9 percent in 2026. Growth is expected to slow down to 1.8 percent in 2027, and then grow by 1.7, and 1.8 percent in 2027 and 2028 respectively. The sudden emergence of COVID-19 in 2020 and subsequent closure of large parts of the economy were the cause of the huge 9.4 percent contraction in 2020, with the economy recovering somewhat in 2021, when the economy grew by 7.6 percent. UK growth downgraded in 2025 Although the economy is still expected to grow in 2025, the one percent growth anticipated in this forecast has been halved from two percent in October 2024. Increased geopolitical uncertainty as well as the impact of American tariffs on the global economy are some of the main reasons for this mark down. The UK's inflation rate for 2025 has also been revised, with an annual rate of 3.2 percent predicated, up from 2.6 percent in the last forecast. Unemployment is also anticipated to be higher than initially thought, with the annual unemployment rate likely to be 4.5 percent instead of 4.1 percent. Long-term growth problems In the last two quarters of 2023, the UK economy shrank by 0.1 percent in Q3 and by 0.3 percent in Q4, plunging the UK into recession for the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic. Even before that last recession, however, the UK economy has been struggling with weak growth. Although growth since the pandemic has been noticeably sluggish, there has been a clear long-term trend of declining growth rates. The economy has consistently been seen as one of the most important issues to people in Britain, ahead of health, immigration and the environment. Achieving strong levels of economic growth is one of the main aims of the Labour government elected in 2024, although after almost one year in power it has so far proven elusive.

Government spending in the United Kingdom was approximately 44.7 percent of GDP in 2024/25, compared with 39.6 percent in 2019/20.

The government of the United Kingdom borrowed approximately 2.6 percent worth of its GDP in the 2024/25 financial year, compared with 2.3 percent in 2023/24. In 2020/21, government borrowing reached 11.6 percent of GDP, due to increased financial support to public services during the COVID-19 pandemic, combined with reduced revenue because of societal lockdowns.

Weighted estimates from the voluntary fortnightly Business Insights and Conditions Survey (BICS) about financial performance, workforce, prices, trade, and business resilience. These are official statistics in development.

London’s Economic Outlook is GLA Economics’ London forecast. The forecasts are issued every six months to assist those preparing planning projections for London in the medium term. The report contains the following: An overview of recent economic conditions in London, the UK and the world economies with analysis of important events, trends and risks to short and medium-term growth. The ‘consensus forecast’ – a review of independent forecasts indicating the range of views about London’s economy and the possible upside and downside risk. In this context, ‘consensus forecast’ refers to the average of the independent forecasters (Cambridge Econometrics, The Centre for Economic and Business Research, Experian Economics, and Oxford Economics) The GLA Economics forecast for output, employment, household expenditure and household income in London. Provided below are links to the current and previous versions of GLA Economics' medium term forecast for the level and growth rate of London's GVA, employment, household income and household expenditure. Forecasts for the growth and level of employment and GVA for selected sectors of the economy are also included. All output variables are measured in terms of output at basic prices. The price base for the latest dataset is 2011. All growth rates are in percentage change per annum. All employment levels are in millions. All output levels are in £bn.

In 2025, the UK economy is expected to grow by just one percent, according to the economic and fiscal outlook from March 2025. GDP growth has been downgraded from two percent when compared with the previous forecast from October 2024. The inflation rate is expected to average out at 3.2 percent, and the unemployment rate at 4.5 percent. Inflation distress continues for UK consumers The expected increase in UK inflation for 2025 looks set to peak at 3.7 percent in the third quarter of the year, before falling to two percent by early 2026. Though this spike in prices will be far less serious than in 2022, when UK inflation reached a peak of 11.1 percent in October 2022, UK households are still suffering from the impact of the previous crisis. In March 2025, approximately 59 percent of UK households were dealing with rising living costs, relative to the previous month, mainly due to rising energy and food costs. Unemployment set to rise in 2025 Aside from rising prices and a slowing economy, the UK will also have to contend with rising unemployment in 2025. As with inflation, however, the rise in unemployment is expected to be relatively mild and short-lived, especially when compared with previous periods of high unemployment. Recently, the government has been more concerned about high levels of economic inactivity, especially among young people, with the number of 16- to 24-year-olds not in employment, education, or training approaching one million towards the end of 2024.

Opinions and Lifestyle Survey (OPN) findings about people's worries about climate change and changes to lifestyle to help tackle climate change, Great Britain.

This paper summarises the latest evidence and analysis on the impacts of COVID-19 on London’s economy so far and on the economic outlook so that key actors and stakeholders engaged in responding to the pandemic can have a readily available evidence base to inform policy responses.

The OECD Economic Outlook analyses the major economic trends over the coming 2 years. It provides in-depth coverage of the main economic issues and the policy measures required to foster growth in each member country. Forthcoming developments in selected non-OECD economies are also evaluated in detail. Each edition of the Outlook provides a unique resource to keep abreast of world economic developments. The OECD Economic Outlook database is a comprehensive and consistent macroeconomic database of the OECD economies, covering expenditures, foreign trade, output, labour markets, interest and exchange rates, balance of payments, and government debt. For the non-OECD regions, foreign trade and current account series are available.

The database contains annual data (for all variables) and quarterly figures (for a subset of variables). Variables are defined in such a way that they are as homogenous as possible for the countries covered. Breaks in underlying series are corrected as far as possible. Sources for the historical data are publications of national statistical agencies and OECD databases such as Quarterly National Accounts, Annual National Accounts, Labour Force Statistics and Main Economic Indicators.

Concerning the aggregation of world trade, a new composition has been introduced, since projections are now made for selected non-OECD economies. Thus, besides OECD and the OECD Euro Area, the following new regions are available: Dynamic Asian Economies (Chinese Taipei, Hong Kong, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam); Oil Producers (Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Brunei, Timor-Leste, Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Yemen, Ecuador, Trinidad and Tobago, Venezuela, Algeria, Angola, Chad, Rep. of Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Nigeria, Sudan); with the remaining countries in a residual 'Rest of the World' group.

Estimates of how the coronavirus (COVID-19) has impacted income and affordability in Great Britain. Data are from the Survey on Living Conditions (SLC).

The main aim of this work is to develop a set of high level macro economic scenarios for the medium-term (to the end of 2022) and for the long-term (to 2030) in order to inform the development of recovery strategies in London, reflecting unprecedented uncertainty on the economic outlook. The primary scenario dimensions include Effectiveness/nature of public health response and Effectiveness/impact of economic support measures. Other scenario dimensions include: Brexit and migration; International economic context; Technology and innovation; Financial climate; Political economy; Economic Geography and GHG emissions. This is an agile project - GLA Economics will continue to track actual data in order to review the assessment of the likelihood of alternative scenario outcomes. Successive updates will be released when they become available for the benefit of external stakeholders in tackling the COVID-19 crisis.

The relationships between UK Environmental Accounts measures and those of United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC) and United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE), 1990 to 2023.

Confidence intervals for weighted estimates from the voluntary fortnightly Business Insights and Conditions Survey (BICS) about financial performance, workforce, prices, trade, and business resilience. These are official statistics in development.

United Kingdom Credit Cond: UL: L3: HH: AB: Factor: Economic Outlook data was reported at -3.400 % Point in Sep 2018. This records a decrease from the previous number of -2.500 % Point for Jun 2018. United Kingdom Credit Cond: UL: L3: HH: AB: Factor: Economic Outlook data is updated quarterly, averaging 0.000 % Point from Jun 2007 (Median) to Sep 2018, with 46 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 11.200 % Point in Mar 2010 and a record low of -34.700 % Point in Sep 2008. United Kingdom Credit Cond: UL: L3: HH: AB: Factor: Economic Outlook data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Bank of England. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United Kingdom – Table UK.KB018: Credit Conditions Survey: Unsecured Lending: Last 3 Months.

United Kingdom Credit Cond: UL: N3: HH: AB: Factor: Economic Outlook data was reported at -1.500 % Point in Sep 2018. This records an increase from the previous number of -2.000 % Point for Jun 2018. United Kingdom Credit Cond: UL: N3: HH: AB: Factor: Economic Outlook data is updated quarterly, averaging -1.450 % Point from Jun 2007 (Median) to Sep 2018, with 46 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 17.900 % Point in Jun 2010 and a record low of -35.400 % Point in Sep 2008. United Kingdom Credit Cond: UL: N3: HH: AB: Factor: Economic Outlook data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Bank of England. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United Kingdom – Table UK.KB019: Credit Conditions Survey: Unsecured Lending: Next 3 Months.

The economic impact to the United Kingdom caused by climate change is expected to be around *** percent of the GDP by 2100 following the current policies (SSP3-7.0). In case of a more strict mitigation (SSP1-2.6), the economic impact could be reduced by around five percentage points.

United Kingdom Credit Cond: SL: N3: HH: CA: Factor: Economic Outlook data was reported at -7.900 % Point in Sep 2018. This records a decrease from the previous number of -2.400 % Point for Jun 2018. United Kingdom Credit Cond: SL: N3: HH: CA: Factor: Economic Outlook data is updated quarterly, averaging -2.150 % Point from Jun 2007 (Median) to Sep 2018, with 46 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 15.800 % Point in Dec 2009 and a record low of -38.900 % Point in Mar 2008. United Kingdom Credit Cond: SL: N3: HH: CA: Factor: Economic Outlook data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Bank of England. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United Kingdom – Table UK.KB017: Credit Conditions Survey: Secured Lending: Next 3 Months.

What does the data show?

Life expectancy at birth (years) from the UK Climate Resilience Programme UK-SSPs project. The data is available for each Office for National Statistics Local Authority District (ONS LAD) shape simplified to a 10m resolution.

The data is available for the end of each decade. This dataset contains SSP1, SSP2, SSP3, SSP4 and SSP5. For more information see the table below.

Indicator

Health

Metric

Life expectancy at birth

Unit

Years

Spatial Resolution

LAD

Temporal Resolution

Decadal

Sectoral Categories

N/A

Baseline Data Source

ONS 2018

Projection Trend Source

Stakeholder process

What are the naming conventions and how do I explore the data?

This data contains a field for the year at the end of each decade. A separate field for 'Scenario' allows the data to be filtered, e.g. by scenario 'SSP3'.

To understand how to explore the data, see this page: https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/457e7a2bc73e40b089fac0e47c63a578

Please note, if viewing in ArcGIS Map Viewer, the map will default to 2020 values.

What are Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)?

The global SSPs, used in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments, are five different storylines of future socioeconomic circumstances, explaining how the global economy and society might evolve over the next 80 years. Crucially, the global SSPs are independent of climate change and climate change policy, i.e. they do not consider the potential impact climate change has on societal and economic choices.

Instead, they are designed to be coupled with a set of future climate scenarios, the Representative Concentration Pathways or ‘RCPs’. When combined together within climate research (in any number of ways), the SSPs and RCPs can tell us how feasible it would be to achieve different levels of climate change mitigation, and what challenges to climate change mitigation and adaptation might exist.

Until recently, UK-specific versions of the global SSPs were not available to combine with the RCP-based climate projections. The aim of the UK-SSPs project was to fill this gap by developing a set of socioeconomic scenarios for the UK that is consistent with the global SSPs used by the IPCC community, and which will provide the basis for further UK research on climate risk and resilience.

Useful links: Further information on the UK SSPs can be found on the UK SSP project site and in this storymap.Further information on RCP scenarios, SSPs and understanding climate data within the Met Office Climate Data Portal.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) World Economic Outlook (WEO) database contains selected macroeconomic data series from the statistical appendix of the World Economic Outlook report, which presents the IMF staff's analysis and projections of economic developments at the global level, in major country groups and in many individual countries.