Between ************ and *********, global recession fear went through periods of sharp increases three times. First, in the summer of 2019, due to an escalation in U.S.-China relations and a recession signal being flashed by the bond market. The second peak of worldwide recession fear took place in **********, as a result of the alarming jump in the rate of COVID-19 cases. The fear of recession started to increase sharply again in *************, as the conflict between Russia and Ukraine escalated.

A recession is due in the U.S. in 2023, according to a majority of macroeconomists in a June 2022 survey. Opinions varied, however, on when in 2023 this new recession could start exactly. Most respondents - ** percent - believed the economic downturn most likely start in the first half of 2023. Meanwhile, ** percent said that it would begin in the latter half of that year. Most Americans thought differently on this topic, believing that the country was already experiencing an economic recession in June 2022. The macroeconomists cited both geopolitical tensions and the increasing costs of energy as the main reasons why pressure would remain on U.S. inflation.

Graph and download economic data for OECD based Recession Indicators for Major Seven Countries from the Peak through the Period preceding the Trough (DISCONTINUED) (MSCRECDP) from 1960-02-01 to 2022-08-31 about G7, peak, trough, and recession indicators.

Graph and download economic data for Dates of U.S. recessions as inferred by GDP-based recession indicator (JHDUSRGDPBR) from Q4 1967 to Q1 2025 about recession indicators, GDP, and USA.

In May 2025, the Sahm recession indicator was ****, indicating no change from the previous month. The Sahm Rule was developed to flag the onset of an economic recession more quickly than other indicators. The Sahm Rule signals the start of a recession when the three-month moving average of the national unemployment rate rises by **** percentage points or more relative to its low during the previous 12 months.

Graph and download economic data for OECD based Recession Indicators for the United States from the Period following the Peak through the Trough (DISCONTINUED) (USARECD) from 1947-02-01 to 2022-09-30 about peak, trough, recession indicators, and USA.

In a June 2022 survey, more than half of Americans believed that the best indicator of whether or not the country is experiencing a recession was the prices of goods and services they buy. This response was given by ** percent of the respondents. A further ** percent felt that the unemployment rate and job reports are the best indicator.

Canada GDP Counterfactual Tracker: % Change from Pre-Crisis Trend: High data was reported at -0.325 % in 30 Jan 2022. This records a decrease from the previous number of 1.404 % for 23 Jan 2022. Canada GDP Counterfactual Tracker: % Change from Pre-Crisis Trend: High data is updated weekly, averaging -2.325 % from May 2020 (Median) to 30 Jan 2022, with 91 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 1.404 % in 23 Jan 2022 and a record low of -9.373 % in 24 May 2020. Canada GDP Counterfactual Tracker: % Change from Pre-Crisis Trend: High data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Canada – Table CA.OECD.WT: GDP Growth Tracker: Weekly.

Graph and download economic data for OECD based Recession Indicators for Greece from the Period following the Peak through the Trough (DISCONTINUED) (GRCREC) from Feb 1960 to Jul 2022 about peak, trough, Greece, and recession indicators.

By April 2026, it is projected that there is a probability of ***** percent that the United States will fall into another economic recession. This reflects a significant decrease from the projection of the preceding month.

The Long Depression was, by a large margin, the longest-lasting recession in U.S. history. It began in the U.S. with the Panic of 1873, and lasted for over five years. This depression was the largest in a series of recessions at the turn of the 20th century, which proved to be a period of overall stagnation as the U.S. financial markets failed to keep pace with industrialization and changes in monetary policy. Great Depression The Great Depression, however, is widely considered to have been the most severe recession in U.S. history. Following the Wall Street Crash in 1929, the country's economy collapsed, wages fell and a quarter of the workforce was unemployed. It would take almost four years for recovery to begin. Additionally, U.S. expansion and integration in international markets allowed the depression to become a global event, which became a major catalyst in the build up to the Second World War. Decreasing severity When comparing recessions before and after the Great Depression, they have generally become shorter and less frequent over time. Only three recessions in the latter period have lasted more than one year. Additionally, while there were 12 recessions between 1880 and 1920, there were only six recessions between 1980 and 2020. The most severe recession in recent years was the financial crisis of 2007 (known as the Great Recession), where irresponsible lending policies and lack of government regulation allowed for a property bubble to develop and become detached from the economy over time, this eventually became untenable and the bubble burst. Although the causes of both the Great Depression and Great Recession were similar in many aspects, economists have been able to use historical evidence to try and predict, prevent, or limit the impact of future recessions.

OECD based Recession Indicators for the OECD Total Area from the Period following the Peak through the Trough was 0.00000 +1 or 0 in August of 2022, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, OECD based Recession Indicators for the OECD Total Area from the Period following the Peak through the Trough reached a record high of 1.00000 in March of 1960 and a record low of 0.00000 in March of 1961. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for OECD based Recession Indicators for the OECD Total Area from the Period following the Peak through the Trough - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on August of 2025.

For their 2022 annual public report, the financial courts focused on the health crisis, which severely disrupted the functioning of public administrations and whose threats to the health of the French people and the impact on economic activity have raised very high expectations of the public and businesses vis-à-vis the state. This report thus focuses on the lessons to be learned from this unprecedented crisis and its budgetary, financial, economic and social consequences. Following a review of the overall state of public finances at the end of January 2022, the first part of the annual public report looks at measures taken to meet the vital needs of the population and to support vulnerable or vulnerable populations. The second part analyses the adaptation to the crisis of certain administrations and public enterprises providing essential services. Finally, the third part focuses on support for economic activity.

According to a survey on the anticipated recession in the United States in 2022, ** percent of respondents stated that they were planning to spend less on discretionary purchases in order to be better prepared for an economic recession. Only *** percent of respondents said that they were saving more money for retirement.

OECD based Recession Indicators for NAFTA Area from the Peak through the Period preceding the Trough was 0.00000 +1 or 0 in August of 2022, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, OECD based Recession Indicators for NAFTA Area from the Peak through the Period preceding the Trough reached a record high of 1.00000 in April of 1947 and a record low of 0.00000 in October of 1949. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for OECD based Recession Indicators for NAFTA Area from the Peak through the Period preceding the Trough - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on July of 2025.

Canada - Recession Indicators - Historical chart and current data through 2022.

Graph and download economic data for OECD based Recession Indicators for the United Kingdom from the Peak through the Period preceding the Trough (DISCONTINUED) (GBRRECP) from Feb 1955 to Sep 2022 about peak, trough, recession indicators, and United Kingdom.

Sweden GDP Counterfactual Tracker: % Change from Pre-Crisis Trend data was reported at 1.682 % in 30 Jan 2022. This records an increase from the previous number of -0.743 % for 23 Jan 2022. Sweden GDP Counterfactual Tracker: % Change from Pre-Crisis Trend data is updated weekly, averaging -0.732 % from May 2020 (Median) to 30 Jan 2022, with 91 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 3.711 % in 07 Nov 2021 and a record low of -6.510 % in 24 May 2020. Sweden GDP Counterfactual Tracker: % Change from Pre-Crisis Trend data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Sweden – Table SE.OECD.WT: GDP Growth Tracker: Weekly.

Slovakia GDP Counterfactual Tracker: % Change from Pre-Crisis Trend: Low data was reported at 2.592 % in Jul 2022. This records a decrease from the previous number of 6.463 % for Apr 2022. Slovakia GDP Counterfactual Tracker: % Change from Pre-Crisis Trend: Low data is updated quarterly, averaging -6.874 % from Jan 2020 (Median) to Jul 2022, with 11 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 6.463 % in Apr 2022 and a record low of -12.353 % in Apr 2020. Slovakia GDP Counterfactual Tracker: % Change from Pre-Crisis Trend: Low data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Slovakia – Table SK.OECD.WT: GDP Growth Tracker: Quarterly.

United States (DC)Nonfarm Business: Recession Effect Adjustment data was reported at 99.526 1992=100 in 2023. This stayed constant from the previous number of 99.526 1992=100 for 2022. United States (DC)Nonfarm Business: Recession Effect Adjustment data is updated yearly, averaging 100.000 1992=100 from Dec 1949 (Median) to 2023, with 75 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 100.000 1992=100 in 2009 and a record low of 99.526 1992=100 in 2023. United States (DC)Nonfarm Business: Recession Effect Adjustment data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Congressional Budget Office. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.A130: NIPA 2018: Potential Gross Domestic Product: Projection.