By April 2026, it is projected that there is a probability of ***** percent that the United States will fall into another economic recession. This reflects a significant decrease from the projection of the preceding month.

Graph and download economic data for Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator (SAHMREALTIME) from Dec 1959 to Jun 2025 about recession indicators, academic data, and USA.

Germany's factory activity slump signals possible winter recession, highlighting manufacturing challenges and economic concerns.

This poll, fielded January 13-16, 2009, is a part of a continuing series of monthly surveys that solicits public opinion on the presidency and on a range of other political and social issues. A national sample of 1,079 adults was surveyed, including an oversample of 204 African Americans. Opinions were sought on how well George W. Bush handled his job as president, how Dick Cheney handled his job as vice president, and whether things in the country were going in the right direction. Respondents were asked their opinions about how they thought President George Bush would go down in history, how newly elected Barack Obama handled his presidential transition, the level of confidence they had in President Obama and Congress to make decisions for the country's future, the expectations they had for Obama's performance as president, whether he got off to a good start in dealing with the economy, and the confidence level they had that President Obama's economic program would improve the economy. Views were sought on the kind of priority the president and Congress should give several issues including the economy, the situation in Iran, in Israel, and in Afghanistan, the federal budget deficit, education, global warming, health care, immigration issues, the United States campaign against terrorism, and taxes. Respondents were also asked questions about and the kind of priority that should be given to items that could be included in the economic stimulus plan such as upgrading schools with new technology, computerizing American medical records, extending unemployment insurance and health care coverage, and putting a moratorium on home mortgage foreclosures. Several questions addressed race relations and asked such things as whether Blacks in the community receive equal treatment, whether respondents felt they were ever denied housing or a job because of their race, and whether they felt they had ever been stopped by the police because of their race. Additional topics covered included respondents' personal finances, the war in Iraq, the situation in Afghanistan, the United States military prison at Guantanamo Bay, the treatment of terrorist suspects, embryonic stem cell research, and race relations. Demographic variables include sex, age, race, education level, political party affiliation, political philosophy, religious preference, and household income.

Explore the surprising 1% decline in German industrial production in October, signaling ongoing struggles and potential recession in Europe's largest economy.

The UK economy shrank by 0.1 percent in May 2025 after shrinking by 0.3 percent in April. Since a huge decline in GDP in April 2020, the UK economy has gradually recovered and is now around 4.4 percent larger than it was before the COVID-19 pandemic. After the initial recovery from the pandemic, however, the UK economy has effectively flatlined, fluctuating between low growth and small contractions since January 2022. Labour banking on growth to turn around fortunes in 2025 In February 2025, just over half a year after winning the last general election, the approval rating for the new Labour government fell to a low of -48 percent. Furthermore, the Prime Minister, Keir Starmer was not only less popular than the new Conservative leader, Kemi Badenoch, but also the leader of the Reform Party, Nigel Farage, whose party have surged in opinion polls recently. This remarkable decline in popularity for the new government is, in some part, due to a deliberate policy of making tough decisions early. Arguably, the most damaging of these policies was the withdrawal of the winter fuel allowance for some pensioners, although other factors such as a controversy about gifts and donations also hurt the government. While Labour aims to restore the UK's economic and political credibility in the long term, they will certainly hope for some good economic news sooner rather than later. Economy bounces back in 2024 after ending 2023 in recession Due to two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth, in late 2023 the UK economy ended the year in recession. After not growing at all in the second quarter of 2023, UK GDP fell by 0.1 percent in the third quarter, and then by 0.3 percent in the last quarter. For the whole of 2023, the economy grew by 0.4 percent compared to 2022, and for 2024 is forecast to have grown by 1.1 percent. During the first two quarters of 2024, UK GDP grew by 0.7 percent, and 0.4 percent, with this relatively strong growth followed by zero percent growth in the third quarter of the year. Although the economy had started to grow again by the time of the 2024 general election, this was not enough to save the Conservative government at the time. Despite usually seen as the best party for handling the economy, the Conservative's economic competency was behind that of Labour on the eve of the 2024 election.

Lehman Brothers, the fourth largest investment bank on Wall Street, declared bankruptcy on the 15th of September 2008, becoming the largest bankruptcy in U.S. history. The investment house, which was founded in the mid-19th century, had become heavily involved in the U.S. housing bubble in the early 2000s, with its large holdings of toxic mortgage-backed securities (MBS) ultimately causing the bank's downfall. The bank had expanded rapidly following the repeal of the Glass-Steagall Act in 1999, which meant that investment banks could also engage in commercial banking activities. Lehman vertically integrated their mortgage business, buying smaller commercial enterprises that originated housing loans, which allowed the bank to expand its MBS holdings. The downfall of Lehman and the crash of '08 As the U.S. housing market began to slow down in 2006, the default rate on housing loans began to spike, triggering losses for Lehman from their MBS portfolio. Lehman's main competitor in mortgage financing, Bear Stearns, was bought by J.P. Morgan Chase in order to prevent bankruptcy in March 2008, leading investors and lenders to become increasingly concerned about the bank's financial health. As the bank relied on short-term funding on money markets in order to meet its obligations, the news of its huge losses in the third-quarter of 2008 further prevented it from funding itself on financial markets. By September, it was clear that without external assistance, the bank would fail. As its losses from credit default swaps mounted due to the deepening crash in the housing market, Lehman was forced to declare bankruptcy on September 15, as no buyer could be found to save the bank. The collapse of Lehman triggered panic in global financial markets, forcing the U.S. government to step in and bail-out the insurance giant AIG the next day on September 16. The effects of this financial crisis hit the non-financial economy hard, causing a global recession in 2009.

This analysis presents a rigorous exploration of financial data, incorporating a diverse range of statistical features. By providing a robust foundation, it facilitates advanced research and innovative modeling techniques within the field of finance.

if the stock market goes down during a recession, you should sell all of your investments to minimize your losses.

Financial data:

• Historical daily stock prices (open, high, low, close, volume)

• Fundamental data (e.g., market capitalization, price to earnings P/E ratio, dividend yield, earnings per share EPS, price to earnings growth, debt-to-equity ratio, price-to-book ratio, current ratio, free cash flow, projected earnings growth, return on equity, dividend payout ratio, price to sales ratio, credit rating)

• Technical indicators (e.g., moving averages, RSI, MACD, average directional index, aroon oscillator, stochastic oscillator, on-balance volume, accumulation/distribution A/D line, parabolic SAR indicator, bollinger bands indicators, fibonacci, williams percent range, commodity channel index)

Machine learning features:

• Feature engineering based on financial data and technical indicators

• Sentiment analysis data from social media and news articles

• Macroeconomic data (e.g., GDP, unemployment rate, interest rates, consumer spending, building permits, consumer confidence, inflation, producer price index, money supply, home sales, retail sales, bond yields)

Potential Applications:

• Stock price prediction

• Portfolio optimization

• Algorithmic trading

• Market sentiment analysis

• Risk management

Use Cases:

• Researchers investigating the effectiveness of machine learning in stock market prediction

• Analysts developing quantitative trading Buy/Sell strategies

• Individuals interested in building their own stock market prediction models

• Students learning about machine learning and financial applications

Additional Notes:

• The dataset may include different levels of granularity (e.g., daily, hourly)

• Data cleaning and preprocessing are essential before model training

• Regular updates are recommended to maintain the accuracy and relevance of the data

Formaat: PDF Omvang: 70Kb

This article was published on the Guardian website at 19.00 BST on Tuesday 16 June 2009. It was last modified at 13.43 BST on Tuesday 19 August 2014. Online beschikbaar: http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2009/jun/16/deflation-double-dip-recession-inflation/print [01-12-2014] © 2014 Guardian News and Media Limited or its affiliated companies. All rights reserved.

This analysis presents a rigorous exploration of financial data, incorporating a diverse range of statistical features. By providing a robust foundation, it facilitates advanced research and innovative modeling techniques within the field of finance.

CDT Stock: Are We Headed for a Recession?

Financial data:

• Historical daily stock prices (open, high, low, close, volume)

• Fundamental data (e.g., market capitalization, price to earnings P/E ratio, dividend yield, earnings per share EPS, price to earnings growth, debt-to-equity ratio, price-to-book ratio, current ratio, free cash flow, projected earnings growth, return on equity, dividend payout ratio, price to sales ratio, credit rating)

• Technical indicators (e.g., moving averages, RSI, MACD, average directional index, aroon oscillator, stochastic oscillator, on-balance volume, accumulation/distribution A/D line, parabolic SAR indicator, bollinger bands indicators, fibonacci, williams percent range, commodity channel index)

Machine learning features:

• Feature engineering based on financial data and technical indicators

• Sentiment analysis data from social media and news articles

• Macroeconomic data (e.g., GDP, unemployment rate, interest rates, consumer spending, building permits, consumer confidence, inflation, producer price index, money supply, home sales, retail sales, bond yields)

Potential Applications:

• Stock price prediction

• Portfolio optimization

• Algorithmic trading

• Market sentiment analysis

• Risk management

Use Cases:

• Researchers investigating the effectiveness of machine learning in stock market prediction

• Analysts developing quantitative trading Buy/Sell strategies

• Individuals interested in building their own stock market prediction models

• Students learning about machine learning and financial applications

Additional Notes:

• The dataset may include different levels of granularity (e.g., daily, hourly)

• Data cleaning and preprocessing are essential before model training

• Regular updates are recommended to maintain the accuracy and relevance of the data

Goldman Sachs recommends gold as a strategic asset amid recession fears, with potential for prices to exceed $3,700 due to economic uncertainties and central bank diversification.

This poll, fielded May 6-12, 2009, is part of a continuing series of monthly surveys that solicit public opinion on the presidency and on a range of other political and social issues. Respondents were asked whether they approved of the way Barack Obama was handling the presidency and the economy, whether they thought things in the country were on the right track, their rating of the national economy and whether they thought the economy would get better. Respondents were asked several questions about how the recession was affecting their personal lives including questions about the main way they were affected by the recession, how much the recession affected their children's lives and their communities, and whether they did any of the following things for their children in the previous six months as a result of the recession: applied for Medicaid, delayed visits to the dentist, doctor, or a specialist, reduced or not purchased medication, or cut back on extra-curricular activities. Respondents were also asked whether it had become easier or harder to pay for things such as groceries, medical bills, their children's tuition/schooling, housing costs, and utilities in the previous six months and whether they were concerned about H1N1 or the Swine Flu virus, Barack Obama's Supreme Court Justice nominations, health care insurance, how the federal government should use taxpayer's money, and job security. Demographic variables include sex, age, race, marital status, education level, household income, political party affiliation, political philosophy, perceived social class, religious preference, whether the respondent considered themselves to be a born-again Christian, and voter registration status and participation history.

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the United States contracted 0.50 percent in the first quarter of 2025 over the previous quarter. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - United States GDP Growth Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

The present study focuses on the fluctuation of sentiment in economic terminology to observe semantic changes in restricted diachrony. Our study examines the evolution of the target term ‘inflation’ in the business section of quality news and the impact of the Great Recession. This is carried out through the application of quantitative and qualitative methods: Sentiment Analysis, Usage Fluctuation Analysis, Corpus Linguistics, and Discourse Analysis. From the diachronic Great Recession News Corpus that covers the 2007–2015 period, we extracted sentences containing the term ‘inflation’. Several facts are evidenced: (i) terms become event words given the increase in their frequency of use due to the unfolding of relevant crisis events, and (ii) there are statistically significant culturally motivated changes in the form of emergent collocations with sentiment-laden words with a lower level of domain-specificity.

This poll, fielded February 19-22, 2009, is a part of a continuing series of monthly surveys that solicits public opinion on the presidency and on a range of other political and social issues. Opinions were sought on how well Barack Obama was handling the presidency, the economy, and appointments to his cabinet, and whether things in the country were generally going in the right direction. Respondents were asked whether they approved of the way Republicans and Democrats in Congress were doing their jobs, whether they trusted the Democrats in Congress, the Republicans in Congress or President Obama to do a better job in handling the economy and coping with the main problems the nation faced. Several questions addressed the stimulus plan asking respondents whether they supported the plan, whether the plan would help the local economy in their area or their personal financial situation, whether it would be enough to improve the economy, and whether the stimulus package went far enough in terms of tax cuts and aides to states and individuals. Information was collected on whether respondents were confident that the federal government would implement adequate controls to avoid fraud with the use of federal money used for the nation's economic recovery, how concerned they were about the size of the federal deficit, whether stricter regulations should be placed on the way financial institutions conduct business, whether the government should provide refinancing assistance to homeowners, and whether additional government loans should be given to United States automakers. Respondents were asked questions about the effect the economy had in their lives. They were asked how financially secure they felt, whether the recession hurt them financially, how optimistic they felt about the state of the economy and their family's financial situation, whether they had cut back on their spending, and whether the economic situation was a cause of stress in their lives. Respondents were also asked how long they thought the recession would last, how confident they were they would retire with enough income to sustain them for the rest of their lives, how concerned they were about having enough money to pay their rent or mortgage, and whether they or anyone they knew had experienced or was concerned about job loss or pay cuts. Other topics focused on the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and Washington DC's delegate in Congress being a nonvoting member of the United States House of Representatives. Demographic variables include sex, age, race, education level, marital status, political party affiliation, political philosophy, household income, religious preference, home ownership, and whether respondents considered themselves to be a born-again Christian.

Direction of country (1); Barack Obama job performance (1); Obama handling economy (1); Obama handling foreign policy (1); Obama handling war in Afghanistan (1); Congressional job performance (1); rating public figures, groups, organizations (12); role of government (1); Obama re-elected for president (1); party control of congress (1); confidence in congress (1); Republican congress bring right change (1); partisanship (1); party vote in primary election (1); Republican 2012 presidential nominees (3); candidate positions affecting vote (1); Tim Pawlenty vs. Barack Obama (1); Mitt Romney vs. Barack Obama (1); candidates possessing skills for presidency (1); positions for presidential candidates (1); Romney's stance on healthcare (1); party with influence on special interest groups/lobbyists (1); party influenced by special interest groups/lobbyists (1); economic outlook (1); personal economic situation (1); effects of stimulus (1); Obama administration responsible for economic situation (1); George W. Bush administration responsible for economic situation (1); economic situation inherited by Obama (1); role of government/congress in handling economy/budget deficit (1); economic recession (1); heading toward another recession (1); government loans to auto companies (1); cutting federal spending (1); recent events affecting respondent (1); federal debt ceiling (2); Medicare (3); reducing troops in Afghanistan (1); death of Osama bin Laden (1); Obama handling situation in Libya (1); military operations in Libya (1); television news source (1).

This paper looks at the relationship between negative news and stock markets in times of global crisis, such as the 2008/2009 period. We analysed one year of front page banner headlines of three financial newspapers, the Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, and Il Sole24ore to examine the influence of bad news both on stock market volatility and dynamic correlation. Our results show that the press and markets influenced each other in generating market volatility and in particular, that the Wall Street Journal had a crucial effect both on the volatility and correlation between the US and foreign markets. We also found significant differences between newspapers in their interpretation of the crisis, with the Financial Times being significantly pessimistic even in phases of low market volatility. Our results confirm the reflexive nature of stock markets. When the situation is uncertain and unpredictable, market behaviour may even reflect qualitative, big picture, and subjective information such as streamers in a newspaper, whose economic and informative value is questionable.

James‘ study is a comprehensive approach to present the special features of Germany’s economic crisis during the period of the world economic crisis. Germany’s very specific crisis factors are described using new sources and considering new research questions. It is an analysis of the political and economic sociological structure of the crisis. The economic crisis was a significant turning point in the economic activities of people. The change in expectations and behaviours manifested in two ways: in the politicization of the economy and in the states’ obligation on the principle of economic interventionism. Harold James classifies the German crisis into a wider framework. The distinguishing characteristic of the German crisis in comparison to other countries is the degree of politicization, the close association of economic and political crisis.In the research there are three different explanations for the depression that lay the main emphasis on international relations. The explanations focus on the degree of global technical progress, the development of world trade, and the development of the international capital markets. Other approaches favour a purely domestic economic explanation of the economic crisis. James starts from two problem areas in his analysis: first, the slow growth of world trade in the twenties and second, the German tax burden. Five aspects of the problem area are analysed:1. How big was the willingness of taxpayers to accept the tax increases?2. How was the organizational development of German industry and what were the reasons for the development? What consequences had the organizational structure of the industry for the German economy?3. How affected the wage push of the late twenties the German economy structure, and what policy responses have been evoked by the wage push?4. How did the German agricultural sector succeeded in influencing the political decision-making processes so strong that there has been no price fall of agricultural products during the depression? What were the consequences of the agricultural development on the overall economic development?5. The bank system and the credit system was in the period of the twenties highly unstable. Its instability has contributed significantly to the worsening of the depression. To what extent was the increasing instability due to political calculation? Datatables in the search- and downloadsystem HISTAT (Topic: Growth, Economy, and Crisis (=Wachstum, Konjunktur und Krisen) ): A. Die öffentlichen Finanzen (= Official Finances: revenues, expenses, national dept, municipal dept, tax revenues) A.01a Staatseinnahmen, Staatsausgaben und Staatsverschuldung in Deutschland, in Millionen Reichmark (1926-1933)A.01b Zunahme der deutschen Kommunalverschuldung, in Millionen Reichmark (1928-1931)A.02 Steuereinnahmen der Kommunen, in Millionen Reichsmark (1928-1933)A.03 Schulden der Kommunen mit über 10.000 Einwohnern, in Millionen Reichmark (1928-1930) B. Die industrielle Struktur: Stagnation und Immobilität(= Industrial Structure: stagnation and immobility. Average yearly growth rate of german industrial products; share of taxes and social expenditurs on the national income; lending; industrial investment) B.01 Durchschnittliche jährliche Zuwachsraten der deutschen Industrieproduktion, in Prozent (1913-1932)B.02 Anteil der Steuern und Sozialabgaben am Volkseinkommen in Großbritannien, Frankreich und Deutschland, in Prozent (1925-1929) B.03 Kreditvergabe der Kreditinstitute, ohne Waren- und Wertpapierlombardgeschäfte (1913-1933)B.04 Industrielle Investitionen von Kapitalgesellschaften, in Millionen Reichsmark (1924-1931)B.05 Der Steinkohlenbergbau des Ruhrgebiets (1913-1931) C. Lohnentwicklung(= Wage-Development. Real Wages; hourly wages and productivity; share of wages on national income) C.01a Kumulierte Reallohnposition, Basisjahr 1938 (1925-1933)C.01b Stundenlöhne und Produktivität in der deutschen Industrie und im deutschen Handwerk (1925-1932)C.02 Stundenlohnsätze, im Jahresdurchschnitt (1925-1932)C.03 Anteil der Löhne am Volkseinkommen (1927-1939) D. Beschäftigung (= occupation. Labour disputes; number of employees of Siemens and of the rhenish-westphalian heavy industry) D.01 Durch Arbeitskämpfe in Deutschland ausgefallene Arbeitstage (1924-1932)D.02 Zahl der Beschäftigten bei Siemens & Halske und der Siemens-Schuckertwerke GmbH (1928-1934)D.03 Zahl der Beschäftigten in der rheinisch-westfälischen Schwerindustrie (1927-1932) E. Die Landwirtschaft(= agricultural sector: Germany´s crop yields; average weight of animals for slaughter; Germany’s animal stock; level of dept of Germany’s agriculture) E.01a Bodenerträge in Deutschland, (1913-1924)E.01b Durchschnittsgewicht der Schlachttiere (1906-1924)E.01c Gesamtviehbestand in Deutschland (1913-1924)E.02 Die Verschuldung der deutschen Landwirtschaft (1925-1930)E.03 Zinsbelastung der deutschen Landwirtschaft (1924-1932) F. Die Bankenkrise(= banking crisis. Dept and investments) F.01 Schu...

Gold prices fell by 3.58% on Monday due to global tariff concerns, yet remain up 16.77% since January amid economic uncertainty.

The UK economy grew by 0.7 percent in the first quarter of 2025, compared with 0.1 percent growth in the previous quarter. After ending 2023 in recession, the UK economy grew strongly in the first half of 2024, growing by 0.8 percent in Q1, and 0.4 percent in Q2, with growth slowing in the second half of the year. In the third quarter of 2020 the UK experienced record setting growth of 16.8 percent, which itself followed the record 20.3 percent contraction in Q2 2020. Growing economy key to Labour's plans Since winning the 2024 general election, the UK's Labour Party have seen their popularity fall substantially. In February 2025, the government's approval rating fell to a low of -54 percent, making them almost as disliked as the Conservatives just before the last election. A string of unpopular policies since taking office have taken a heavy toll on support for the government. Labour hope they can reverse their declining popularity by growing the economy, which has underperformed for several years, and when measured in GDP per capita, fell in 2023, and 2024. Steady labor market trends set to continue? After a robust 2022, the UK labor market remained resilient throughout 2023 and 2024. The unemployment rate at the end of 2024 was 4.4 percent, up from four percent at the start of the year, but still one of the lowest rates on record. While the average number of job vacancies has been falling since a May 2022 peak, there was a slight increase in January 2025 when compared with the previous month. The more concerning aspect of the labor market, from the government's perspective, are the high levels of economic inactivity due to long-term sickness, which reached a peak of 2.84 million in late 2023, and remained at high levels throughout 2024.