By April 2026, it is projected that there is a probability of ***** percent that the United States will fall into another economic recession. This reflects a significant decrease from the projection of the preceding month.

Graph and download economic data for Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator (SAHMREALTIME) from Dec 1959 to Sep 2025 about recession indicators, academic data, and USA.

This paper examines the strategic use of public news media – specifically television (TV) – as an instrument of political influence, focusing on Italy's 2011 financial crisis under Berlusconi's premiership. Using an original large corpus of over 20,000 hours of televised news transcripts and a quasi-experimental design, we investigate how political influence altered media coverage and, subsequently, public opinion and electoral outcomes. Our difference-in-differences analysis, complemented by unsupervised text scaling of news content, reveals a significant shift from “hard” political news to “soft” news on public TV during Berlusconi's tenure. Findings suggest a deliberate reduction in hard news coverage by an average of 107 seconds daily, which significantly increased voter support for Berlusconi's party. In the conclusions, we discuss the broader implications of our findings for media independence in Western democracies amid the emergence of artificial intelligence-generated news contents and the prevalence of algorithmically tailored news feeds.

This data collection is part of a continuing series of monthly surveys that evaluate the Bush presidency and solicit opinions on a variety of political and social issues. Topics covered include the economy, foreign affairs, the situation in the Persian Gulf, and the recession. In addition, respondents were questioned in depth regarding health care and health insurance. They were asked about the quality of health care, health insurance coverage, the health insurance system in the United States, whether they would choose an inexpensive health care program that did not allow them to choose their own doctors or an expensive one that permitted that choice, and whether they would prefer private health insurance or national health insurance. Respondents were also asked if they thought the Persian Gulf War was worth fighting, if the United States should bomb Iraq if the United States government believed Iraq was secretly trying to make nuclear weapons, if they approved of Clarence Thomas's nomination to the Supreme Court, and if they had favorable impressions of certain persons, organizations, and countries. Among the other subjects addressed are the economic and political system changes of the Soviet Union, cutting the number of long-range nuclear missiles, the Middle East peace conference, the United States House of Representatives election in November, and AIDS testing. Background information on respondents includes political alignment, 1988 presidential vote choice, education, age, religion, social class, marital status, number of people in household, labor union membership, employment status, race, income, sex, and state/region of residence.

Abstract Considering the construction of meaning and the hypertextual materiality in on-line journalism, this article aims to analyze, based on the Discourse Analysis of the French orientation, the discursive production conditions throughout the processes of digital enunciation about the world economic crisis of 2008. In order to do that, we analyse the Lehman Brothers bank's crash in USA, which was thematized in several major on-line magazines, newspapers and news portals in Brazil, such as Estadao.com.br, Folha Online, Jornalnacional.globo.com, Globo.com, ISTOÉ Dinheiro and Veja.com, which expressed through a network of hypertextual links the fear of the markets about a possible global recession. It was observed in our analysis that the crisis metaphors present in the political and in the economic discourses are usually introduced into the media discourse by means of entextualization processes and digital hypertextualization with displacements of the ideas and meanings which circulate in the society.

This poll, fielded January 13-16, 2009, is a part of a continuing series of monthly surveys that solicits public opinion on the presidency and on a range of other political and social issues. A national sample of 1,079 adults was surveyed, including an oversample of 204 African Americans. Opinions were sought on how well George W. Bush handled his job as president, how Dick Cheney handled his job as vice president, and whether things in the country were going in the right direction. Respondents were asked their opinions about how they thought President George Bush would go down in history, how newly elected Barack Obama handled his presidential transition, the level of confidence they had in President Obama and Congress to make decisions for the country's future, the expectations they had for Obama's performance as president, whether he got off to a good start in dealing with the economy, and the confidence level they had that President Obama's economic program would improve the economy. Views were sought on the kind of priority the president and Congress should give several issues including the economy, the situation in Iran, in Israel, and in Afghanistan, the federal budget deficit, education, global warming, health care, immigration issues, the United States campaign against terrorism, and taxes. Respondents were also asked questions about and the kind of priority that should be given to items that could be included in the economic stimulus plan such as upgrading schools with new technology, computerizing American medical records, extending unemployment insurance and health care coverage, and putting a moratorium on home mortgage foreclosures. Several questions addressed race relations and asked such things as whether Blacks in the community receive equal treatment, whether respondents felt they were ever denied housing or a job because of their race, and whether they felt they had ever been stopped by the police because of their race. Additional topics covered included respondents' personal finances, the war in Iraq, the situation in Afghanistan, the United States military prison at Guantanamo Bay, the treatment of terrorist suspects, embryonic stem cell research, and race relations. Demographic variables include sex, age, race, education level, political party affiliation, political philosophy, religious preference, and household income.

The UK economy shrank by 0.1 percent in September 2025 after reporting zero growth in the previous month. Since a huge decline in GDP in April 2020, the UK economy has gradually recovered and is now slightly larger than it was before the COVID-19 pandemic. After the initial recovery from the pandemic, however, the UK economy has effectively flatlined, fluctuating between low growth and small contractions since 2022. Labour banking on growth to turn around fortunes in 2025 In February 2025, just over half a year after winning the last general election, the approval rating for the new Labour government fell to a low of -48 percent. Furthermore, the Prime Minister, Keir Starmer was not only less popular than the new Conservative leader, Kemi Badenoch, but also the leader of the Reform Party, Nigel Farage, whose party have surged in opinion polls recently. This remarkable decline in popularity for the new government is, in some part, due to a deliberate policy of making tough decisions early. Arguably, the most damaging of these policies was the withdrawal of the winter fuel allowance for some pensioners, although other factors such as a controversy about gifts and donations also hurt the government. While Labour aims to restore the UK's economic and political credibility in the long term, they will certainly hope for some good economic news sooner rather than later. Economy bounces back in 2024 after ending 2023 in recession Due to two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth, in late 2023 the UK economy ended the year in recession. After not growing at all in the second quarter of 2023, UK GDP fell by 0.1 percent in the third quarter, and then by 0.3 percent in the last quarter. For the whole of 2023, the economy grew by 0.4 percent compared to 2022, and for 2024 is forecast to have grown by 1.1 percent. During the first two quarters of 2024, UK GDP grew by 0.7 percent, and 0.4 percent, with this relatively strong growth followed by zero percent growth in the third quarter of the year. Although the economy had started to grow again by the time of the 2024 general election, this was not enough to save the Conservative government at the time. Despite usually seen as the best party for handling the economy, the Conservative's economic competency was behind that of Labour on the eve of the 2024 election.

Lehman Brothers, the fourth largest investment bank on Wall Street, declared bankruptcy on the 15th of September 2008, becoming the largest bankruptcy in U.S. history. The investment house, which was founded in the mid-19th century, had become heavily involved in the U.S. housing bubble in the early 2000s, with its large holdings of toxic mortgage-backed securities (MBS) ultimately causing the bank's downfall. The bank had expanded rapidly following the repeal of the Glass-Steagall Act in 1999, which meant that investment banks could also engage in commercial banking activities. Lehman vertically integrated their mortgage business, buying smaller commercial enterprises that originated housing loans, which allowed the bank to expand its MBS holdings. The downfall of Lehman and the crash of '08 As the U.S. housing market began to slow down in 2006, the default rate on housing loans began to spike, triggering losses for Lehman from their MBS portfolio. Lehman's main competitor in mortgage financing, Bear Stearns, was bought by J.P. Morgan Chase in order to prevent bankruptcy in March 2008, leading investors and lenders to become increasingly concerned about the bank's financial health. As the bank relied on short-term funding on money markets in order to meet its obligations, the news of its huge losses in the third-quarter of 2008 further prevented it from funding itself on financial markets. By September, it was clear that without external assistance, the bank would fail. As its losses from credit default swaps mounted due to the deepening crash in the housing market, Lehman was forced to declare bankruptcy on September 15, as no buyer could be found to save the bank. The collapse of Lehman triggered panic in global financial markets, forcing the U.S. government to step in and bail-out the insurance giant AIG the next day on September 16. The effects of this financial crisis hit the non-financial economy hard, causing a global recession in 2009.

Context

This dataset contains around 41 500 french news from 11/2018 to 03/2021 scraped on a famous financial media website. For ease of use I’v add English translation (Helsinki-NLP/opus-mt-fr-en) and sentiment analysis (VADER)

Analysis

The picture below show the effect of covid crisis on news sentiment (Purple) and CAC40 (Blue). We see clearly a link between the news sentiment and the stocks market (Note : March 2020: The covid crisis break down / November 2020: Release of the pfizer vaccine) https://i.ibb.co/nLFdSHL/news-sentiment-vs-cac40.png" alt="">

CAC 40 next day open prediction (Works a little bit ) https://i.ibb.co/ZdhXVHy/CAC40-next-day-open-prediction.png" alt="">

CAC 40 next 20 day prediction (Multi-day prediction gets imprecise results...) https://i.ibb.co/Mgdzvzs/CAC40-next-20-day-prediction.png" alt="">

Compare the sentiment of news title, text and text in the URL. We can conclude that titles are often more dramatic to attract attention. https://i.ibb.co/K7nSkgd/news-sentiment-title-vs-summay-vs-text-in-URL.png" alt="">

-> See linked notebook.

Content

-> FrenchNews.csv This dataset contains around 41 500 french news from 11/2018 to 03/2021 scraped on a famous financial media website.

-> FrenchNewsDayConcat.csv The dataset FrenchNews.csv with post process to sample it at day and compare with CAC40.

The number of news per day varies form day to day (see FrenchNewsDayConcat.csv param NbrNewsJour). The amount of news increase with the time. https://i.ibb.co/xmBVDDR/nbr-of-news-per-day.png" alt="">

Inspiration

Could we use directly the text of the news scraped to make CAC40 prediction (NLP)? Use of the news text to find the main stream subject of news during the time.

Feel free to play with the dataset

Dataset is extracted from Twitter using Tweepy API contains-

Daily tweets about Recession 2023! Happy learning!👍

Formaat: PDF Omvang: 70Kb

This article was published on the Guardian website at 19.00 BST on Tuesday 16 June 2009. It was last modified at 13.43 BST on Tuesday 19 August 2014. Online beschikbaar: http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2009/jun/16/deflation-double-dip-recession-inflation/print [01-12-2014] © 2014 Guardian News and Media Limited or its affiliated companies. All rights reserved.

This paper looks at the relationship between negative news and stock markets in times of global crisis, such as the 2008/2009 period. We analysed one year of front page banner headlines of three financial newspapers, the Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, and Il Sole24ore to examine the influence of bad news both on stock market volatility and dynamic correlation. Our results show that the press and markets influenced each other in generating market volatility and in particular, that the Wall Street Journal had a crucial effect both on the volatility and correlation between the US and foreign markets. We also found significant differences between newspapers in their interpretation of the crisis, with the Financial Times being significantly pessimistic even in phases of low market volatility. Our results confirm the reflexive nature of stock markets. When the situation is uncertain and unpredictable, market behaviour may even reflect qualitative, big picture, and subjective information such as streamers in a newspaper, whose economic and informative value is questionable.

Gold and copper prices have declined due to global market sell-offs and geopolitical tensions, with gold slipping below $3,000 an ounce.

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the United States expanded 3.80 percent in the second quarter of 2025 over the previous quarter. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - United States GDP Growth Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

Federal Reserve data on emergency lending to banks covering the period August 2007 to April 2010 released in batches in Dec 2010, March 2011 and July 2011 as a result of the Dodd-Frank Act and FOIA requests by Bloomberg news and others.

From the Bloomberg page about the data (Aug 2011):

The data were extracted from 29,000 pages of documents and 18 Fed-prepared Microsoft Excel spreadsheets listing more than 21,000 transactions. The records were made public in batches on Dec. 1, 2010, and March 31 and July 6 of this year. The Fed released some of them under the 2010 Dodd-Frank Act and the rest in responses to Freedom of Information Act requests by media outlets including Bloomberg News and related federal court orders. The data covered money borrowed from the central bank from August 2007 through April 2010.

• Bloomberg News visualization using consolidated data (NB: as far as one can tell Bloomberg have not released their consolidated database. Details of data processing).

Data Source

From Bloomberg Story:

The Federal Reserve released thousands of pages of secret loan documents under court order, almost three years after Bloomberg LP first requested details of the central bank’s unprecedented support to banks during the financial crisis.

The records reveal for the first time the names of financial institutions that borrowed directly from the central bank through the so-called discount window. The Fed provided the documents after the U.S. Supreme Court this month rejected a banking industry group’s attempt to shield them from public view.

...

The central bank has never revealed identities of borrowers since the discount window began lending in 1914. The Dodd-Frank law exempted the facility last year when it required the Fed to release details of emergency programs that extended $3.3 trillion to financial institutions to stem the credit crisis. While Congress mandated disclosure of discount-window loans made after July 21, 2010 with a two-year delay, the records released today represent the only public source of details on discount- window lending during the crisis.

Openness

License: presuming public domain as data released from a federal agency.

This study examines the correlation among Bitcoin (BTC), gold, equity, bonds, and exchange rate volatility in the context of new developments during Russia Ukraine conflict using daily data from January 01, 2018, to May 30, 2023. Three GARCH estimation models are utilized to capture the hedging, diversification, and safe haven properties of Bitcoin in Russian financial market. The results indicate from GJR-GARCH estimation model exhibits that BTC has hedging ability against the bonds and gold that enables investors to diversify the risk among the underline financial assets. In addition, value at risk and conditional value at risk estimations are employed to estimate potential losses in the portfolio during the crisis. The study observes a significant increase in Bitcoin investments during crisis, leading to heightening the volatility and uncertainty where negative news has a stronger impact compared to positive news which underscores the importance of prudent asset allocation for risk mitigation. The study provides notable policy implications within the context of the ongoing crisis between Russia and Ukraine.

Unemployment Rate in the United States increased to 4.40 percent in September from 4.30 percent in August of 2025. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - United States Unemployment Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

Explore the impact of the U.S. trade deficit reaching new heights alongside declining GDP forecasts, and what it means for the economy and various industries.

Analysis of recent cardboard box production cuts and plant closures suggesting potential economic slowdown, with data showing significant capacity reduction and declining shipments across major packaging companies.

This poll is part of a continuing series of monthly surveys that solicit public opinion on the presidency and on a range of other political and social issues. Respondents were asked to give their opinions of President George W. Bush and his handling of the presidency, the economy, education, environmental issues, the federal budget, the campaign against terrorism, and Social Security, as well as their views on Congress, the Republican party, the Democratic party, First Lady Laura Bush, and Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle. Those queried were asked which domestic and foreign policy issues should receive the administration's attention, which political party could be trusted to address these issues, and on what topics Bush should focus in his upcoming State of the Union speech. Respondents were asked to identify Bush's two most significant accomplishments and to assess his job performance during his first year in office. They were also asked whether Bush understood the problems of the average American, and whether big business, environmental groups, the oil/gas industry, and/or the American people had the appropriate amount of influence in the Bush administration. Opinions were elicited on the state of the nation's economy, how long the current economic recession would last, whether military spending or spending on social programs should be reduced to balance the federal budget, and whether the Bush administration was responsible for the budget deficit. Respondent views were sought on the 2001 collapse of the energy trading giant Enron Corporation. Topics covered whether the Enron situation was an isolated incident, whether new laws regulating corporate accounting practices or the enforcement of existing laws were necessary, the Bush administration's dealings with Enron, whether recipients of campaign contributions from Enron should disclose communications with Enron officials, and whether a full-scale federal investigation should be conducted. A series of questions addressed the ongoing war on terrorism. Topics covered respondent confidence in the ability of the United States government to prevent further terrorist attacks against Americans and to capture/kill Osama Bin Laden, whether his capture was necessary for the war to be considered a success, possible military action against Iraq to force Saddam Hussein from power, and whether non-citizens charged with terrorism should be put on trial in the United States court system or in a military tribunal. A series of questions focused on the benefits given to families of the victims of the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks. Items focused on whether payments should be reduced for families that had other sources of financial benefits, whether victims of previous terrorist attacks should be paid similar benefits, and whether payments should be made to the families and victims of all future terrorist attacks. Respondents expressed their degree of confidence in the federal government's ability to actually solve a problem. Those queried gave their opinions on the amount of waste in military and domestic program spending by the United States government, whether they would rather work in the public or private sector, and whether a smaller government with fewer services or a larger government with many services was preferred. A series of questions focused on Saudi Arabia. Topics covered whether Saudi Arabia was an ally or enemy of the United States, the importance of maintaining good relations with them, and whether the United States was dependent on the oil it buys from Saudi Arabia. In addition, respondents were asked to give their views on whether the federal government should allow oil drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge in Alaska. Background information on respondents includes age, gender, political party, political orientation, voter registration and participation history, education, race, Hispanic descent, marital status, children in household, religion, labor union membership, urban/suburban/rural area of residence, whether close family/friends lost a job in the previous six months, and household income.