The average for 2024 based on 175 countries was 5.54 index points. The highest value was in Syria: 9.9 index points and the lowest value was in Denmark: 0.7 index points. The indicator is available from 2007 to 2024. Below is a chart for all countries where data are available.

From the Summer of 2007 until the end of 2009 (at least), the world was gripped by a series of economic crises commonly known as the Global Financial Crisis (2007-2008) and the Great Recession (2008-2009). The financial crisis was triggered by the collapse of the U.S. housing market, which caused panic on Wall Street, the center of global finance in New York. Due to the outsized nature of the U.S. economy compared to other countries and particularly the centrality of U.S. finance for the world economy, the crisis spread quickly to other countries, affecting most regions across the globe. By 2009, global GDP growth was in negative territory, with international credit markets frozen, international trade contracting, and tens of millions of workers being made unemployed.

Global similarities, global differences

Since the 1980s, the world economy had entered a period of integration and globalization. This process particularly accelerated after the collapse of the Soviet Union ended the Cold War (1947-1991). This was the period of the 'Washington Consensus', whereby the U.S. and international institutions such as the World Bank and IMF promoted policies of economic liberalization across the globe. This increasing interdependence and openness to the global economy meant that when the crisis hit in 2007, many countries experienced the same issues. This is particularly evident in the synchronization of the recessions in the most advanced economies of the G7. Nevertheless, the aggregate global GDP number masks the important regional differences which occurred during the recession. While the more advanced economies of North America, Western Europe, and Japan were all hit hard, along with countries who are reliant on them for trade or finance, large emerging economies such as India and China bucked this trend. In particular, China's huge fiscal stimulus in 2008-2009 likely did much to prevent the global economy from sliding further into a depression. In 2009, while the United States' GDP sank to -2.6 percent, China's GDP, as reported by national authorities, was almost 10 percent.

United States Recession Probability data was reported at 14.120 % in Oct 2019. This records a decrease from the previous number of 14.505 % for Sep 2019. United States Recession Probability data is updated monthly, averaging 7.668 % from Jan 1960 (Median) to Oct 2019, with 718 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 95.405 % in Dec 1981 and a record low of 0.080 % in Sep 1983. United States Recession Probability data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.S021: Recession Probability.

From the onset of the Global Financial Crisis in the Summer of 2007, the world economy experienced an almost unprecedented period of turmoil in which millions of people were made unemployed, businesses declared bankruptcy en masse, and structurally critical financial institutions failed. The crisis was triggered by the collapse of the U.S. housing market and subsequent losses by investment banks such as Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers, and Merrill Lynch. These institutions, which had become over-leveraged with complex financial securities known as derivatives, were tied to each other through a web of financial contracts, meaning that the collapse of one investment bank could trigger the collapse of several others. As Lehman Brothers failed on September 15. 2008, becoming the largest bankruptcy in U.S. history, shockwaves were felt throughout the global financial system. The sudden stop of flows of credit worldwide caused a financial panic and sent most of the world's largest economies into a deep recession, later known as the Great Recession. The World Economy in recession
More than any other period in history, the world economy had become highly interconnected and interdependent over the period from the 1970s to 2007. As governments liberalized financial flows, banks and other financial institutions could take money in one country and invest it in another part of the globe. Financial institutions and other non-financial companies became multinational, meaning that they had subsidiaries and partners in many regions. All this meant that when Wall Street, the center of global finance in New York City, was shaken by bankruptcies and credit freezes in late 2007, other advanced economies did not need to wait long to feel the tremors. All of the G7 countries, the seven most economically advanced western-aligned countries, entered recession in 2008, before experiencing an even deeper trough in 2009. While all returned to growth by 2010, this was less stable in the countries of the Eurozone (Germany, France, Italy) over the following years due to the Eurozone crisis, as well as in Japan, which has had issues with low growth since the mid-1990s.

.xlsx file for the replication of the Paper The Complex Crises Database: 70 years of Macroeconomic Crises. It contains the term frequencies of 20 crises sentiment indexes computed from the IMF country report for the period 1956-2016 for 181 countries. (2021-07-02)

Africa Insight, June

Net flows from part-time for noneconomic reasons to part-time for economic reasons contributed substantially to the overall increase in part-time for economic reasons during the Global Financial Crisis in the United States. This suggests that the increase in measures such as U-6 may have overstated the decline in labor demand during that period. However, this does not appear to reflect a general cyclical pattern.

The Long Depression was, by a large margin, the longest-lasting recession in U.S. history. It began in the U.S. with the Panic of 1873, and lasted for over five years. This depression was the largest in a series of recessions at the turn of the 20th century, which proved to be a period of overall stagnation as the U.S. financial markets failed to keep pace with industrialization and changes in monetary policy. Great Depression The Great Depression, however, is widely considered to have been the most severe recession in U.S. history. Following the Wall Street Crash in 1929, the country's economy collapsed, wages fell and a quarter of the workforce was unemployed. It would take almost four years for recovery to begin. Additionally, U.S. expansion and integration in international markets allowed the depression to become a global event, which became a major catalyst in the build up to the Second World War. Decreasing severity When comparing recessions before and after the Great Depression, they have generally become shorter and less frequent over time. Only three recessions in the latter period have lasted more than one year. Additionally, while there were 12 recessions between 1880 and 1920, there were only six recessions between 1980 and 2020. The most severe recession in recent years was the financial crisis of 2007 (known as the Great Recession), where irresponsible lending policies and lack of government regulation allowed for a property bubble to develop and become detached from the economy over time, this eventually became untenable and the bubble burst. Although the causes of both the Great Depression and Great Recession were similar in many aspects, economists have been able to use historical evidence to try and predict, prevent, or limit the impact of future recessions.

United States NBER-Based Recession Indicators from the Peak Through the Trough data was reported at 0.000 Unit in 14 May 2025. This stayed constant from the previous number of 0.000 Unit for 13 May 2025. United States NBER-Based Recession Indicators from the Peak Through the Trough data is updated daily, averaging 0.000 Unit from Dec 1854 (Median) to 14 May 2025, with 62256 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 1.000 Unit in 15 Apr 2020 and a record low of 0.000 Unit in 14 May 2025. United States NBER-Based Recession Indicators from the Peak Through the Trough data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.S: NBER-Based Recession Indicators.

The global financial crisis, triggered by the 2007 subprime mortgage crisis in the United States, has severely affected financial systems and real economies worldwide, leading to the most serious economic recession since the Great Depression of the 1930s. Behind these two economic recessions, despite different historical contexts and approaches to problem-solving, there are common characteristics associated with the mutual impact of financial crises: the essence of a financial crisis lies in financial instability, reflecting the fluctuations in asset prices. In addition to these two severe financial crises, financial crises of varying scales have occurred intermittently internationally. Considering the past and present, people need to think deeper about how to prevent such crises from happening again, especially mainstream macroeconomic thinking that has far-reaching effects should be reassessed.

Graph and download economic data for Dates of U.S. recessions as inferred by GDP-based recession indicator (JHDUSRGDPBR) from Q4 1967 to Q1 2025 about recession indicators, GDP, and USA.

United States FRB Recession Risk data was reported at 0.178 % in Apr 2025. This records a decrease from the previous number of 0.192 % for Mar 2025. United States FRB Recession Risk data is updated monthly, averaging 0.193 % from Jan 1973 (Median) to Apr 2025, with 628 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 1.000 % in Oct 2008 and a record low of 0.022 % in Jul 2003. United States FRB Recession Risk data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Board. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.S090: FRB Recession Risk.

Graph and download economic data for Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator (SAHMREALTIME) from Dec 1959 to Sep 2025 about recession indicators, academic data, and USA.

Abstract

This research was conducted in Hungary in February-March 2010 as part of the second round of The Financial Crisis Survey. Data from 152 establishments from private nonagricultural formal sector was analyzed to quantify the effect of the 2008 global financial crisis on companies in Hungary.

Researchers revisited establishments interviewed in Hungary Enterprise Survey 2009. Efforts were made to contact all respondents of the baseline survey to determine which of the companies were still operating and which were not. From the information collected during telephone interviews, indicators were computed to measure the effects of the financial crisis on key elements of the private economy: sales, employment, finances, and expectations of the future.

Geographic coverage

National

Analysis unit

The primary sampling unit of the study was the establishment. An establishment is a physical location where business is carried out and where industrial operations take place or services are provided. A firm may be composed of one or more establishments. For example, a brewery may have several bottling plants and several establishments for distribution. For the purposes of this survey an establishment must make its own financial decisions and have its own financial statements separate from those of the firm. An establishment must also have its own management and control over its payroll.

Universe

The manufacturing and services sectors were the primary business sectors of interest. This corresponded to firms classified with International Standard Industrial Classification of All Economic Activities (ISIC) codes 15-37, 45, 50-52, 55, 60-64, and 72 (ISIC Rev.3.1). Formal (registered) companies were targeted for interviews. Services firms included construction, retail, wholesale, hotels, restaurants, transport, storage, communications, and IT. Firms with 100% government ownership were excluded.

Kind of data

Sample survey data [ssd]

Sampling procedure

291 establishments that participated in Hungary Enterprise Survey 2009 were contacted for The Financial Crisis Survey. The implementing contractor received directions that the final achieved sample should include at least 150 establishments.

For Hungary Enterprise Survey 2009, the sample was selected using stratified random sampling. Three levels of stratification were used in this country: industry, establishment size, and region.

Industry stratification was designed in the way that follows: the universe was stratified into 23 manufacturing industries, 2 services industries -retail and IT-, and one residual sector. Each sector had a target of 90 interviews.

Size stratification was defined following the standardized definition for the rollout: small (5 to 19 employees), medium (20 to 99 employees), and large (more than 99 employees). For stratification purposes, the number of employees was defined on the basis of reported permanent full-time workers. This seems to be an appropriate definition of the labor force since seasonal/casual/part-time employment is not a common practice, except in the sectors of construction and agriculture.

Regional stratification was defined in three regions. These regions are Central Hungary, West Hungary and East Hungary.

Given the stratified design, sample frames containing a complete and updated list of establishments for the selected regions were required. Great efforts were made to obtain the best source for these listings. However, the quality of the sample frames was not optimal and, therefore, some adjustments were needed to correct for the presence of ineligible units. These adjustments are reflected in the weights computation.

For most countries covered in 2008-2009 BEEPS, two sample frames were used. The first was supplied by the World Bank and consisted of enterprises interviewed in BEEPS 2005. The World Bank required that attempts should be made to re-interview establishments responding to the BEEPS 2005 survey where they were within the selected geographical regions and met eligibility criteria. That sample is referred to as the Panel. The second frame for Hungary was the Dun & Bradstreet database, which was considered the most reliable for the country. That frame was sent to the TNS statistical team in London to select the establishments for interviews.

The quality of the frame was assessed at the onset of the project. The frame proved to be useful though it showed positive rates of non-eligibility, repetition, non-existent units, etc. These problems are typical of establishment surveys, but given the impact these inaccuracies may have on the results, adjustments were needed when computing the appropriate weights for individual observations. The percentage of confirmed non-eligible units as a proportion of the total number of contacts to complete the survey was 4.6% (29 out of 630 establishments).

Mode of data collection

Computer Assisted Telephone Interview [cati]

Research instrument

The following survey instrument is available: - Financial Crisis Survey Questionnaire

Cleaning operations

Data entry and quality controls are implemented by the contractor and data is delivered to the World Bank in batches (typically 10%, 50% and 100%). These data deliveries are checked for logical consistency, out of range values, skip patterns, and duplicate entries. Problems are flagged by the World Bank and corrected by the implementing contractor through data checks and callbacks.

The average for 2024 based on 27 countries was 3.39 index points. The highest value was in Greece: 5.5 index points and the lowest value was in Denmark: 0.7 index points. The indicator is available from 2007 to 2024. Below is a chart for all countries where data are available.

Bibliographic Data onUkarine Crisis ιn Economics and Business Research Generated by Koutsoupias Nikosstudied in The War in Ukraine as a Global Economic Crisis (2014-2023)an article by Prof. A. Bitzenis and Prof. N. Koutsoupias, University of Macedonia, GreeceVolume in honor of Elias KouskouvelisEdited by The Council for International Relations - Greece (CfIR-GR)Δεδομένα που μελετήθηκαν στο:O Πόλεμος στην Ουκρανία ως Παγκόσμια Οικονομική Κρίση (2014-2023) των Α.Μπιτζενη και Ν.Κουτσουπιαστον τόμο εις μνήμην του καθ. Ηλία Κουσκουβέληεκδ. Συμβουλίου Διεθνών Σχέσεων, Αθήνα, 2024

Abstract

This research was conducted in Turkey in June-July 2010 as part of the third round of The Financial Crisis Survey. Data from 364 establishments from private nonagricultural formal sector was analyzed to quantify the effect of the 2008 global financial crisis on companies in Turkey.

Researchers revisited establishments interviewed in Turkey Enterprise Survey 2008. Efforts were made to contact all respondents of the baseline survey to determine which of the companies were still operating and which were not. From the information collected during telephone interviews, indicators were computed to measure the effects of the financial crisis on key elements of the private economy: sales, employment, finances, and expectations of the future.

Geographic coverage

National

Analysis unit

The primary sampling unit of the study was the establishment. An establishment is a physical location where business is carried out and where industrial operations take place or services are provided. A firm may be composed of one or more establishments. For example, a brewery may have several bottling plants and several establishments for distribution. For the purposes of this survey an establishment must make its own financial decisions and have its own financial statements separate from those of the firm. An establishment must also have its own management and control over its payroll.

Universe

The manufacturing and services sectors were the primary business sectors of interest. This corresponded to firms classified with International Standard Industrial Classification of All Economic Activities (ISIC) codes 15-37, 45, 50-52, 55, 60-64, and 72 (ISIC Rev.3.1). Formal (registered) companies were targeted for interviews. Services firms included construction, retail, wholesale, hotels, restaurants, transport, storage, communications, and IT. Firms with 100% government ownership were excluded.

Kind of data

Sample survey data [ssd]

Sampling procedure

1152 establishments that participated in Turkey Enterprise Survey 2008 were contacted for The Financial Crisis Survey. The implementing contractor received directions that the final achieved sample should include at least 650 establishments.

Stratified random sampling was used in Turkey Enterprise Survey 2008. Three levels of stratification were implemented: industry, establishment size, and oblast (region).

For industry stratification, the universe was divided into 5 manufacturing industries, 1 services industry -retail -, and two residual sectors. Each manufacturing industry had a target of 160 interviews. The services industry and the two residual sectors had a target of 120 interviews. For the manufacturing industries sample sizes were inflated by about 33% to account for potential non-response cases when requesting sensitive financial data and also because of likely attrition in future surveys that would affect the construction of a panel.

Size stratification was defined following the standardized definition for the rollout: small (5 to 19 employees), medium (20 to 99 employees), and large (more than 99 employees). For stratification purposes, the number of employees was defined on the basis of reported permanent full-time workers. This seems to be an appropriate definition of the labor force since seasonal/casual/part-time employment is not a common practice, except in the sectors of construction and agriculture.

Regional stratification was defined in 5 regions. These regions are Marmara, Aegean, South, Central Anatolia and Black Sea-Eastern.

The Turkey sample contains panel data. The wave 1 panel "Investment Climate Private Enterprise Survey implemented in Turkey" consisted of 1325 establishments interviewed in 2005. A total of 425 establishments have been re-interviewed.

Given the stratified design, sample frames containing a complete and updated list of establishments for the selected regions were required. Great efforts were made to obtain the best source for these listings. However, the quality of the sample frames was not optimal and, therefore, some adjustments were needed to correct for the presence of ineligible units. These adjustments are reflected in the weights computation.

The source of the sample frame was twofold. Universe estimates were taken from the TOBB database which contains a full list of establishments in manufacturing sectors. TOBB refers to the Union of Chambers and Commodity Exchanges of Turkey. Universe estimates for service sectors were taken from the Statistical Institute of Statistics (SIS) with additional information based on SIC code from the Turkish Studies Institute (TSI). Comparisons were made between estimates in TOBB and SIS to establish that the two sources are comparable and hence can be used side by side.

The quality of the frame was assessed at the onset of the project. The frame proved to be useful though it showed positive rates of non-eligibility, repetition, non-existent units, etc. These problems are typical of establishment surveys, but given the impact these inaccuracies may have on the results, adjustments were needed when computing the appropriate weights for individual observations. The percentage of confirmed non-eligible units as a proportion of the total number of contacts to complete the survey was 43% (2811 out of 6458 establishments).

Mode of data collection

Computer Assisted Telephone Interview [cati]

Research instrument

The following survey instrument is available: - Financial Crisis Survey Questionnaire

Cleaning operations

Data entry and quality controls are implemented by the contractor and data is delivered to the World Bank in batches (typically 10%, 50% and 100%). These data deliveries are checked for logical consistency, out of range values, skip patterns, and duplicate entries. Problems are flagged by the World Bank and corrected by the implementing contractor through data checks and callbacks.

United States NBER: Recorded Recession data was reported at 0.000 Unit in Oct 2018. This stayed constant from the previous number of 0.000 Unit for Sep 2018. United States NBER: Recorded Recession data is updated monthly, averaging 0.000 Unit from Jan 1959 (Median) to Oct 2018, with 718 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 1.000 Unit in Jun 2009 and a record low of 0.000 Unit in Oct 2018. United States NBER: Recorded Recession data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.S021: Recession Probability. An interpretation of US Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions data provided by The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). A value of 1 is a recessionary period, while a value of 0 is an expansionary period.

Abstract

This research was conducted in Romania in February-March 2010 as part of the second round of The Financial Crisis Survey. Data from 304 establishments from private nonagricultural formal sector was analyzed to quantify the effect of the 2008 global financial crisis on companies in Romania.

Researchers revisited establishments interviewed in Romania Enterprise Survey 2009. Efforts were made to contact all respondents of the baseline survey to determine which of the companies were still operating and which were not. From the information collected during telephone interviews, indicators were computed to measure the effects of the financial crisis on key elements of the private economy: sales, employment, finances, and expectations of the future.

Geographic coverage

National

Analysis unit

The primary sampling unit of the study was the establishment. An establishment is a physical location where business is carried out and where industrial operations take place or services are provided. A firm may be composed of one or more establishments. For example, a brewery may have several bottling plants and several establishments for distribution. For the purposes of this survey an establishment must make its own financial decisions and have its own financial statements separate from those of the firm. An establishment must also have its own management and control over its payroll.

Universe

The manufacturing and services sectors were the primary business sectors of interest. This corresponded to firms classified with International Standard Industrial Classification of All Economic Activities (ISIC) codes 15-37, 45, 50-52, 55, 60-64, and 72 (ISIC Rev.3.1). Formal (registered) companies were targeted for interviews. Services firms included construction, retail, wholesale, hotels, restaurants, transport, storage, communications, and IT. Firms with 100% government ownership were excluded.

Kind of data

Sample survey data [ssd]

Sampling procedure

536 establishments that participated in Romania Enterprise Survey 2009 were contacted for The Financial Crisis Survey. The implementing contractor received directions that the final achieved sample should include at least 360 establishments.

For Romania Enterprise Survey 2009, the sample was selected using stratified random sampling. Three levels of stratification were used in this country: industry, establishment size, and region.

Industry stratification was designed in the way that follows: the universe was stratified into 23 manufacturing industries, 2 services industries -retail and IT-, and one residual sector. Each group of sectors had a target of 180 interviews.

Size stratification was defined following the standardized definition for the rollout: small (5 to 19 employees), medium (20 to 99 employees), and large (more than 99 employees). For stratification purposes, the number of employees was defined on the basis of reported permanent full-time workers. This seems to be an appropriate definition of the labor force since seasonal/casual/part-time employment is not a common practice, except in the sectors of construction and agriculture.

Regional stratification was defined in eight regions. These regions are Nord-Est, Sud-Est, Sud, Vest, Nord-Vest, Bucuresti, Sud-Vest, and Centru.

Given the stratified design, sample frames containing a complete and updated list of establishments for the selected regions were required. Great efforts were made to obtain the best source for these listings. However, the quality of the sample frames was not optimal and, therefore, some adjustments were needed to correct for the presence of ineligible units. These adjustments are reflected in the weights computation.

For most countries covered in 2008-2009 BEEPS, two sample frames were used. The first was supplied by the World Bank and consisted of enterprises interviewed in BEEPS 2005. The World Bank required that attempts should be made to re-interview establishments responding to the BEEPS 2005 survey where they were within the selected geographical regions and met eligibility criteria. That sample is referred to as the Panel. Some of the establishments in the Panel had less than five employees. The second frame used in Romania was the Trade Register of Romania. The full frame was not made available. Instead an extract was selected in Romania according to instructions from the TNS statistical team in London.

The quality of the frame was assessed at the onset of the project. The frame proved to be useful though it showed positive rates of non-eligibility, repetition, non-existent units, etc. These problems are typical of establishment surveys, but given the impact these inaccuracies may have on the results, adjustments were needed when computing the appropriate weights for individual observations. The percentage of confirmed non-eligible units as a proportion of the total number of contacts to complete the survey was 37% (414 out of 1,115 establishments).

Mode of data collection

Computer Assisted Telephone Interview [cati]

Research instrument

The following survey instrument is available: - Financial Crisis Survey Questionnaire

Cleaning operations

Data entry and quality controls are implemented by the contractor and data is delivered to the World Bank in batches (typically 10%, 50% and 100%). These data deliveries are checked for logical consistency, out of range values, skip patterns, and duplicate entries. Problems are flagged by the World Bank and corrected by the implementing contractor through data checks and callbacks.

This statistic shows public evaluation of who was to blame for the economic problems in each country as of 2012. 78 percent of respondents in Spain felt that it was the banks and financial institutions that were most to blame for the current economic problems in their own country as of 2012.