Graph and download economic data for Dates of U.S. recessions as inferred by GDP-based recession indicator (JHDUSRGDPBR) from Q4 1967 to Q4 2024 about recession indicators, GDP, and USA.

The Long Depression was, by a large margin, the longest-lasting recession in U.S. history. It began in the U.S. with the Panic of 1873, and lasted for over five years. This depression was the largest in a series of recessions at the turn of the 20th century, which proved to be a period of overall stagnation as the U.S. financial markets failed to keep pace with industrialization and changes in monetary policy. Great Depression The Great Depression, however, is widely considered to have been the most severe recession in U.S. history. Following the Wall Street Crash in 1929, the country's economy collapsed, wages fell and a quarter of the workforce was unemployed. It would take almost four years for recovery to begin. Additionally, U.S. expansion and integration in international markets allowed the depression to become a global event, which became a major catalyst in the build up to the Second World War. Decreasing severity When comparing recessions before and after the Great Depression, they have generally become shorter and less frequent over time. Only three recessions in the latter period have lasted more than one year. Additionally, while there were 12 recessions between 1880 and 1920, there were only six recessions between 1980 and 2020. The most severe recession in recent years was the financial crisis of 2007 (known as the Great Recession), where irresponsible lending policies and lack of government regulation allowed for a property bubble to develop and become detached from the economy over time, this eventually became untenable and the bubble burst. Although the causes of both the Great Depression and Great Recession were similar in many aspects, economists have been able to use historical evidence to try and predict, prevent, or limit the impact of future recessions.

By November 2025, it is projected that there is a probability of 33.56 percent that the United States will fall into another economic recession. This reflects a significant decrease from the projection of the preceding month.

United States Recession Probability data was reported at 14.120 % in Oct 2019. This records a decrease from the previous number of 14.505 % for Sep 2019. United States Recession Probability data is updated monthly, averaging 7.668 % from Jan 1960 (Median) to Oct 2019, with 718 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 95.405 % in Dec 1981 and a record low of 0.080 % in Sep 1983. United States Recession Probability data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.S021: Recession Probability.

Graph and download economic data for NBER based Recession Indicators for the United States from the Peak through the Period preceding the Trough (USRECDP) from 1854-12-01 to 2025-06-05 about peak, trough, recession indicators, and USA.

The statisic shows the concern among Americans around the impact of the European financial crisis on the United States economy. According to the source, 15 percent of those polled stated that they were 'not too concerned' about the impact of the European financial crisis on the U.S. economy.

Graph and download economic data for Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator (SAHMREALTIME) from Dec 1959 to May 2025 about recession indicators, academic data, and USA.

The Weekly Economic Index (WEI) of the United States exhibited notable fluctuations between January 2021 and May 2025. Throughout this period, the WEI reached its lowest point at negative 0.98 percent in the third week of February 2021, while achieving its peak at 10.27 percent in the first week of May 2021. From 2021 through the initial half of 2023, the WEI demonstrated a gradual decline, interspersed with occasional minor upturns. This phase was succeeded by a period characterized by a modest overall increase. What is the Weekly Economic Index? The Weekly Economic Index (WEI) is an index of real economic activity using high-frequency data, used to signal the state of the U.S. economy. It is an index of 10 daily and weekly indicators, scaled to align with the four-quarter GDP growth rate. The indicators reflected in the WEI cover consumer behavior, the labor market, and production.

Graph and download economic data for GDP-Based Recession Indicator Index (JHGDPBRINDX) from Q4 1967 to Q4 2024 about recession indicators, percent, GDP, and indexes.

Graph and download economic data for Equity Market Volatility Tracker: Financial Crises (EMVFINCRISES) from Jan 1985 to Mar 2025 about volatility, uncertainty, equity, financial, and USA.

This survey shows the view of a group of Latino adults in the United States in terms of how the economic downturn, that began in 2007, has hurt them. 54 percent of the respondents stated that Latinos were hurt more by the economy than other groups.

The financial crisis and recession that began in 2007 brought a sharp increase in the number of bank failures in the United States. This article investigates characteristics of banks that failed and regional patterns in bank failure rates during 2007-2010. The article compares the recent experience with that of 1987-1992, when the United States last experienced a high number of bank failures.

The Industrial Production Index (IPI) fell sharply in the United States during the Great Recession, reaching its lowest point in June 2009. The recession was triggered by the collapse of the U.S. housing market and the subsequent financial crisis in 2007 and 2008, during which a number of systemically critical financial institutions failed or came close to bankruptcy. The crisis in the financial sector quickly spread to the non-financial economy, where firms were adversely hit by the tightening of credit conditions and the drop in consumer confidence caused by the crisis. The largest monthly drop in the IPI came in September 2008, as Lehman Brothers collapsed and the U.S. government was forced to step in to backstop the financial sector. Industrial production would begin to recover in the Summer of 2009, but remained far below its pre-crisis levels.

Do international lenders of last resort create financial instability by generating moral hazard? The evidence is thin and plagued with measurement error. We use the number of American troops hosted by third countries to measure the strength of American commitment to ensuring the countries’ economic health. We test several hypotheses against a dataset covering about sixty-eight countries between 1960 and 2009. Using evidence from fixed-effects and instrumental-variable models, we find that increasing the number of US troops by one standard deviation above the mean raises the probability of a financial crisis in the host country by up to 13 percentage points. We also investigate the channels through which moral hazard materializes. Countries with more US troops conduct more expansionary fiscal and monetary policies, implement riskier financial regulations, and receive more capital, especially from US banks. While many scholars of international relations view the American overseas military presence as a source of stability, we identify an underexplored mechanism by which it generates instability.

From the Summer of 2007 until the end of 2009 (at least), the world was gripped by a series of economic crises commonly known as the Global Financial Crisis (2007-2008) and the Great Recession (2008-2009). The financial crisis was triggered by the collapse of the U.S. housing market, which caused panic on Wall Street, the center of global finance in New York. Due to the outsized nature of the U.S. economy compared to other countries and particularly the centrality of U.S. finance for the world economy, the crisis spread quickly to other countries, affecting most regions across the globe. By 2009, global GDP growth was in negative territory, with international credit markets frozen, international trade contracting, and tens of millions of workers being made unemployed.

Global similarities, global differences

Since the 1980s, the world economy had entered a period of integration and globalization. This process particularly accelerated after the collapse of the Soviet Union ended the Cold War (1947-1991). This was the period of the 'Washington Consensus', whereby the U.S. and international institutions such as the World Bank and IMF promoted policies of economic liberalization across the globe. This increasing interdependence and openness to the global economy meant that when the crisis hit in 2007, many countries experienced the same issues. This is particularly evident in the synchronization of the recessions in the most advanced economies of the G7. Nevertheless, the aggregate global GDP number masks the important regional differences which occurred during the recession. While the more advanced economies of North America, Western Europe, and Japan were all hit hard, along with countries who are reliant on them for trade or finance, large emerging economies such as India and China bucked this trend. In particular, China's huge fiscal stimulus in 2008-2009 likely did much to prevent the global economy from sliding further into a depression. In 2009, while the United States' GDP sank to -2.6 percent, China's GDP, as reported by national authorities, was almost 10 percent.

Graph and download economic data for OECD based Recession Indicators for the United States from the Peak through the Period preceding the Trough (DISCONTINUED) (USARECDP) from 1947-02-01 to 2022-09-30 about peak, trough, recession indicators, and USA.

This file contains the data and code for the publication "The Federal Reserve’s Response to the Global Financial Crisis and its Effects: An Interrupted Time-Series Analysis of the Impact of its Quantitative Easing Programs" by A. C. Kamkoum, 2023.

Graph and download economic data for Sahm Rule Recession Indicator (SAHMCURRENT) from Mar 1949 to May 2025 about recession indicators, academic data, and USA.

United States CSI: Eco: Recent Buss Conditions: Unfavorable Energy Crisis data was reported at 1.000 % in May 2018. This records an increase from the previous number of 0.000 % for Apr 2018. United States CSI: Eco: Recent Buss Conditions: Unfavorable Energy Crisis data is updated monthly, averaging 0.000 % from Jan 1978 (Median) to May 2018, with 485 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 16.000 % in Jul 1979 and a record low of 0.000 % in Apr 2018. United States CSI: Eco: Recent Buss Conditions: Unfavorable Energy Crisis data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by University of Michigan. The data is categorized under Global Database’s USA – Table US.H028: Consumer Sentiment Index: Economic Conditions. During the last few months, have your heard of any favorable or unfavorable changes in business conditions? The question was: What did you hear?

During a 2025 survey in the United States, marketers' optimism level about the American economy declined to 62.2 points, down from 63.8 in Fall 2024. Optimism was at its lowest level since Fall 2022 - that year, Russia's invasion of Ukraine led to global economic uncertainty, while high inflation and recession fears also added to a general negative sentiment.