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Description: This dataset contains historical economic data spanning from 1871 to 2024, used in Jaouad Karfali’s research on Economic Cycle Analysis with Numerical Time Cycles. The study aims to improve economic forecasting accuracy through the 9-year cycle model, which demonstrates superior predictive capabilities compared to traditional economic indicators.
Dataset Contents: The dataset includes a comprehensive range of economic indicators used in the research, such as:
USGDP_1871-2024.csv – U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data. USCPI_cleaned.csv – U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI), cleaned and processed. USWAGE_1871-2024.csv – U.S. average wages data. EXCHANGEGLOBAL_cleaned.csv – Global exchange rates for the U.S. dollar. EXCHANGEPOUND_cleaned.csv – U.S. dollar to British pound exchange rates. INTERESTRATE_1871-2024.csv – U.S. interest rate data. UNRATE.csv – U.S. unemployment rate statistics. POPTOTUSA647NWDB.csv – U.S. total population data. Significance of the Data: This dataset serves as a foundation for a robust economic analysis of the U.S. economy over multiple decades. It was instrumental in testing the 9-year economic cycle model, which demonstrated an 85% accuracy rate in economic forecasting when compared to traditional models such as ARIMA and VAR.
Applications:
Economic Forecasting: Predicts a 1.5% decline in GDP in 2025, followed by a gradual recovery between 2026-2034. Economic Stability Analysis: Used for comparing forecasts with estimates from institutions like the IMF and World Bank. Academic and Institutional Research: Supports studies in economic cycles and long-term forecasting. Source & Further Information: For more details on the methodology and research findings, refer to the full paper published on SSRN:
https://ssrn.com/author=7429208 https://orcid.org/0009-0002-9626-7289
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CN: Total R&D Personnel: Compound Annual Growth Rate data was reported at 11.148 % in 2022. This records an increase from the previous number of 9.205 % for 2021. CN: Total R&D Personnel: Compound Annual Growth Rate data is updated yearly, averaging 8.624 % from Dec 1992 (Median) to 2022, with 29 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 18.409 % in 2005 and a record low of -9.143 % in 1998. CN: Total R&D Personnel: Compound Annual Growth Rate data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. The data is categorized under Global Database’s China – Table CN.OECD.MSTI: Number of Researchers and Personnel on Research and Development: Non OECD Member: Annual.
The national breakdown by source of funds does not fully match with the classification defined in the Frascati Manual. The R&D financed by the government, business enterprises, and by the rest of the world can be retrieved but part of the expenditure has no specific source of financing, i.e. self-raised funding (in particular for independent research institutions), the funds from the higher education sector and left-over government grants from previous years.
The government and higher education sectors cover all fields of NSE and SSH while the business enterprise sector only covers the fields of NSE. There are only few organisations in the private non-profit sector, hence no R&D survey has been carried out in this sector and the data are not available.
From 2009, researcher data are collected according to the Frascati Manual definition of researcher. Beforehand, this was only the case for independent research institutions, while for the other sectors data were collected according to the UNESCO concept of “scientist and engineer”.
In 2009, the survey coverage in the business and the government sectors has been expanded.
Before 2000, all of the personnel data and 95% of the expenditure data in the business enterprise sector are for large and medium-sized enterprises only. Since 2000 however, the survey covers almost all industries and all enterprises above a certain threshold. In 2000 and 2004, a census of all enterprises was held, while in the intermediate years data for small enterprises are estimated.
Due to the reform of the S&T system some government institutions have become enterprises, and their R&D data have been reflected in the Business Enterprise sector since 2000.
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Germany DE: Total R&D Personnel: Per Thousand Total Employment data was reported at 17.207 Per 1000 in 2022. This records an increase from the previous number of 16.760 Per 1000 for 2021. Germany DE: Total R&D Personnel: Per Thousand Total Employment data is updated yearly, averaging 13.326 Per 1000 from Dec 1981 (Median) to 2022, with 38 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 17.207 Per 1000 in 2022 and a record low of 11.921 Per 1000 in 1996. Germany DE: Total R&D Personnel: Per Thousand Total Employment data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Germany – Table DE.OECD.MSTI: Number of Researchers and Personnel on Research and Development: OECD Member: Annual.
The data in this publication for Germany cover unified Germany from 1991 and western Germany only until 1990.
Between 1991 and 2021, the data for the PNP sector were included in the Government sector. In 2016, the method for calculating R&D coefficients was revised, introducing a break in series in the Higher Education sector. In particular, coefficients are thereafter based on time-use surveys.
From reference year 2014, the distribution of R&D personnel by occupation is requested in the government survey whereas it was previously estimated from data by qualification.
The method for calculating public-financed R&D in the business enterprise sector was reviewed, resulting in the revision of business enterprise R&D and the national total back to 1991.
In 1992 the methodology of the survey on resources devoted to R&D in the Government sector was changed.
For 1997, the methodology for allocating GBARD by socio-economic objective changed. For 1997 and from 2001 to 2015, the global budget reduction was not distributed proportionally across SEO by the Federal Ministry of Education and Research. Therefore, the sum of the breakdown for those years does not add to the total. From 2016 onwards the global reduction is distributed across SEO proportionally.
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Luxembourg LU: Business Enterprise Sector: Number of Researchers: Total data was reported at 1,201.000 Person in 2021. This records a decrease from the previous number of 1,497.000 Person for 2019. Luxembourg LU: Business Enterprise Sector: Number of Researchers: Total data is updated yearly, averaging 1,557.000 Person from Dec 2003 (Median) to 2021, with 10 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 1,807.000 Person in 2005 and a record low of 1,097.000 Person in 2013. Luxembourg LU: Business Enterprise Sector: Number of Researchers: Total data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Luxembourg – Table LU.OECD.MSTI: Number of Researchers and Personnel on Research and Development: OECD Member: Annual.
In Luxembourg, a better identification of R&D in software-related activities resulted in a break in series in 2012 for BERD (and GERD). From 2009, some budgetary items of the Ministry of Research and other ministries are no longer included in the government’s own R&D funds. The impact on GOVERD is a drop of less than 7 million.
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United States US: Total Business Enterprise R&D Personnel: Per Thousand Employment In Industry data was reported at 17.169 Per 1000 in 2020. This records an increase from the previous number of 15.152 Per 1000 for 2019. United States US: Total Business Enterprise R&D Personnel: Per Thousand Employment In Industry data is updated yearly, averaging 13.282 Per 1000 from Dec 2011 (Median) to 2020, with 10 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 17.169 Per 1000 in 2020 and a record low of 12.478 Per 1000 in 2012. United States US: Total Business Enterprise R&D Personnel: Per Thousand Employment In Industry data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.OECD.MSTI: Number of Researchers and Personnel on Research and Development: OECD Member: Annual.
Definition of MSTI variables 'Value Added of Industry' and 'Industrial Employment':
R&D data are typically expressed as a percentage of GDP to allow cross-country comparisons. When compiling such indicators for the business enterprise sector, one may wish to exclude, from GDP measures, economic activities for which the Business R&D (BERD) is null or negligible by definition. By doing so, the adjusted denominator (GDP, or Value Added, excluding non-relevant industries) better correspond to the numerator (BERD) with which it is compared to.
The MSTI variable 'Value added in industry' is used to this end:
It is calculated as the total Gross Value Added (GVA) excluding 'real estate activities' (ISIC rev.4 68) where the 'imputed rent of owner-occupied dwellings', specific to the framework of the System of National Accounts, represents a significant share of total GVA and has no R&D counterpart. Moreover, the R&D performed by the community, social and personal services is mainly driven by R&D performers other than businesses.
Consequently, the following service industries are also excluded: ISIC rev.4 84 to 88 and 97 to 98. GVA data are presented at basic prices except for the People's Republic of China, Japan and New Zealand (expressed at producers' prices).In the same way, some indicators on R&D personnel in the business sector are expressed as a percentage of industrial employment. The latter corresponds to total employment excluding ISIC rev.4 68, 84 to 88 and 97 to 98.
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Luxembourg LU: Total R&D Personnel: Per Thousand Total Employment data was reported at 11.450 Per 1000 in 2022. This records a decrease from the previous number of 11.726 Per 1000 for 2021. Luxembourg LU: Total R&D Personnel: Per Thousand Total Employment data is updated yearly, averaging 13.268 Per 1000 from Dec 2000 (Median) to 2022, with 21 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 14.425 Per 1000 in 2004 and a record low of 11.450 Per 1000 in 2022. Luxembourg LU: Total R&D Personnel: Per Thousand Total Employment data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Luxembourg – Table LU.OECD.MSTI: Number of Researchers and Personnel on Research and Development: OECD Member: Annual.
In Luxembourg, a better identification of R&D in software-related activities resulted in a break in series in 2012 for BERD (and GERD). From 2009, some budgetary items of the Ministry of Research and other ministries are no longer included in the government’s own R&D funds. The impact on GOVERD is a drop of less than 7 million.
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No of Internet User: Years of Studies: Male: Without Education & Less Than 1 Year data was reported at 696.774 Person th in 2017. This records a decrease from the previous number of 831.574 Person th for 2016. No of Internet User: Years of Studies: Male: Without Education & Less Than 1 Year data is updated yearly, averaging 764.174 Person th from Dec 2016 (Median) to 2017, with 2 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 831.574 Person th in 2016 and a record low of 696.774 Person th in 2017. No of Internet User: Years of Studies: Male: Without Education & Less Than 1 Year data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics. The data is categorized under Brazil Premium Database’s Transport and Telecommunication Sector – Table BR.TB008: Number of Internet User: by Years of Studies.
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United States Imports: Services: Germany: OB: Research & Development data was reported at 3.674 USD bn in 2016. This records a decrease from the previous number of 3.699 USD bn for 2015. United States Imports: Services: Germany: OB: Research & Development data is updated yearly, averaging 1.322 USD bn from Dec 2006 (Median) to 2016, with 11 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 3.699 USD bn in 2015 and a record low of 790.000 USD mn in 2006. United States Imports: Services: Germany: OB: Research & Development data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Bureau of Economic Analysis. The data is categorized under Global Database’s USA – Table US.JA025: Trade Statistics: Services: Germany.
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Luxembourg LU: Total Business Enterprise R&D Personnel: Per Thousand Employment In Industry data was reported at 7.812 Per 1000 in 2021. This records a decrease from the previous number of 8.371 Per 1000 for 2020. Luxembourg LU: Total Business Enterprise R&D Personnel: Per Thousand Employment In Industry data is updated yearly, averaging 10.857 Per 1000 from Dec 2000 (Median) to 2021, with 20 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 15.564 Per 1000 in 2000 and a record low of 7.812 Per 1000 in 2021. Luxembourg LU: Total Business Enterprise R&D Personnel: Per Thousand Employment In Industry data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Luxembourg – Table LU.OECD.MSTI: Number of Researchers and Personnel on Research and Development: OECD Member: Annual. In Luxembourg, a better identification of R&D in software-related activities resulted in a break in series in 2012 for BERD (and GERD). From 2009, some budgetary items of the Ministry of Research and other ministries are no longer included in the government's own R&D funds. The impact on GOVERD is a drop of less than 7 million. The significant increase in R&D performed in the higher education sector in 2004 is due to the re-defined role of higher education in the national system of innovation and research, in particular the newly created University of Luxembourg.Government budget allocations for space programs and GUF are included from 2006.;
Definition of MSTI variables 'Value Added of Industry' and 'Industrial Employment':
R&D data are typically expressed as a percentage of GDP to allow cross-country comparisons. When compiling such indicators for the business enterprise sector, one may wish to exclude, from GDP measures, economic activities for which the Business R&D (BERD) is null or negligible by definition. By doing so, the adjusted denominator (GDP, or Value Added, excluding non-relevant industries) better correspond to the numerator (BERD) with which it is compared to.
The MSTI variable 'Value added in industry' is used to this end:
It is calculated as the total Gross Value Added (GVA) excluding 'real estate activities' (ISIC rev.4 68) where the 'imputed rent of owner-occupied dwellings', specific to the framework of the System of National Accounts, represents a significant share of total GVA and has no R&D counterpart. Moreover, the R&D performed by the community, social and personal services is mainly driven by R&D performers other than businesses.
Consequently, the following service industries are also excluded: ISIC rev.4 84 to 88 and 97 to 98. GVA data are presented at basic prices except for the People's Republic of China, Japan and New Zealand (expressed at producers' prices).In the same way, some indicators on R&D personnel in the business sector are expressed as a percentage of industrial employment. The latter corresponds to total employment excluding ISIC rev.4 68, 84 to 88 and 97 to 98.
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LU: Higher Education Total R&D Personnel: Compound Annual Growth Rate data was reported at 0.132 % in 2022. This records a decrease from the previous number of 19.056 % for 2021. LU: Higher Education Total R&D Personnel: Compound Annual Growth Rate data is updated yearly, averaging 13.020 % from Dec 2001 (Median) to 2022, with 21 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 342.941 % in 2004 and a record low of -0.727 % in 2003. LU: Higher Education Total R&D Personnel: Compound Annual Growth Rate data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Luxembourg – Table LU.OECD.MSTI: Number of Researchers and Personnel on Research and Development: OECD Member: Annual.
In Luxembourg, a better identification of R&D in software-related activities resulted in a break in series in 2012 for BERD (and GERD). From 2009, some budgetary items of the Ministry of Research and other ministries are no longer included in the government’s own R&D funds. The impact on GOVERD is a drop of less than 7 million.
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Uruguay UY: Researchers in R&D: per Million People data was reported at 524.252 Ratio in 2015. This records an increase from the previous number of 504.165 Ratio for 2014. Uruguay UY: Researchers in R&D: per Million People data is updated yearly, averaging 504.165 Ratio from Dec 1999 (Median) to 2015, with 11 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 549.132 Ratio in 2010 and a record low of 218.815 Ratio in 1999. Uruguay UY: Researchers in R&D: per Million People data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by World Bank. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Uruguay – Table UY.World Bank: Technology. The number of researchers engaged in Research &Development (R&D), expressed as per million. Researchers are professionals who conduct research and improve or develop concepts, theories, models techniques instrumentation, software of operational methods. R&D covers basic research, applied research, and experimental development.; ; United Nations Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) Institute for Statistics.; Weighted average;
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Portugal PT: Researchers in R&D: per Million People data was reported at 3,824.194 Ratio in 2015. This records an increase from the previous number of 3,667.965 Ratio for 2014. Portugal PT: Researchers in R&D: per Million People data is updated yearly, averaging 2,179.936 Ratio from Dec 1996 (Median) to 2015, with 20 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 4,172.401 Ratio in 2011 and a record low of 1,247.112 Ratio in 1996. Portugal PT: Researchers in R&D: per Million People data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by World Bank. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Portugal – Table PT.World Bank: Technology. The number of researchers engaged in Research &Development (R&D), expressed as per million. Researchers are professionals who conduct research and improve or develop concepts, theories, models techniques instrumentation, software of operational methods. R&D covers basic research, applied research, and experimental development.; ; United Nations Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) Institute for Statistics.; Weighted Average;
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Sweden Consumer Survey: KI: Major Purchase: Present: Not the Right Time data was reported at 40.270 % in Jul 2018. This records a decrease from the previous number of 47.000 % for Jun 2018. Sweden Consumer Survey: KI: Major Purchase: Present: Not the Right Time data is updated monthly, averaging 44.230 % from Jan 1996 (Median) to Jul 2018, with 271 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 61.600 % in Nov 2013 and a record low of 31.220 % in Dec 2008. Sweden Consumer Survey: KI: Major Purchase: Present: Not the Right Time data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by National Institute of Economic Research. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Sweden – Table SE.H009: Consumer Survey: National Institute of Economic Research.
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Consumer Survey: KI: Major Purchase: Next 12 Months: No Comment data was reported at 5.300 % in Jul 2018. This records a decrease from the previous number of 6.200 % for Jun 2018. Consumer Survey: KI: Major Purchase: Next 12 Months: No Comment data is updated monthly, averaging 1.600 % from Jan 1996 to Jul 2018, with 271 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 9.100 % in Jan 2001 and a record low of 0.000 % in Dec 2001. Consumer Survey: KI: Major Purchase: Next 12 Months: No Comment data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by National Institute of Economic Research. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Sweden – Table SE.H009: Consumer Survey: National Institute of Economic Research.
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Russia RU: Higher Education Total R&D Personnel: Full-Time Equivalent data was reported at 109,662.000 FTE in 2020. This records a decrease from the previous number of 116,732.000 FTE for 2019. Russia RU: Higher Education Total R&D Personnel: Full-Time Equivalent data is updated yearly, averaging 106,443.000 FTE from Dec 1994 (Median) to 2020, with 27 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 133,170.000 FTE in 1994 and a record low of 96,507.000 FTE in 1998. Russia RU: Higher Education Total R&D Personnel: Full-Time Equivalent data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Russian Federation – Table RU.OECD.MSTI: Number of Researchers and Personnel on Research and Development: Non OECD Member: Annual.
In response to Russia's large-scale aggression against Ukraine, the OECD Council decided on 8 March 2022 to immediately suspend the participation of Russia and Belarus in OECD bodies. In view of this decision, the OECD suspended its solicitation of official statistics on R&D from Russian authorities, leading to the absence of more recent R&D statistics for this country in the OECD database. Previously collected and compiled indicators are still available.
The business enterprise sector includes all organisations and enterprises whose main activity is connected with the production of goods and services for sale, including those owned by the state, and private non-profit institutions serving the above-mentioned organisations. In practice however, R&D performed in this sector is carried out mostly by industrial research institutes other than enterprises. This particularity reflects the traditional organisation of Russian R&D.
Headcount data include full-time personnel only, and hence are underestimated, while data in full-time equivalents (FTE) are calculated on the basis of both full-time and part-time personnel. This explains why the FTE data are greater than the headcount data.
New budgetary procedures introduced in 2005 have resulted in items previously classified as GBARD being attributed to other headings and have affected the coverage and breakdown by socio-economic objective.
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United States Imports: Services: Brazil: OB: Research & Development data was reported at 557.000 USD mn in 2016. This records an increase from the previous number of 421.000 USD mn for 2015. United States Imports: Services: Brazil: OB: Research & Development data is updated yearly, averaging 421.000 USD mn from Dec 2006 (Median) to 2016, with 11 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 582.000 USD mn in 2013 and a record low of 55.000 USD mn in 2006. United States Imports: Services: Brazil: OB: Research & Development data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Bureau of Economic Analysis. The data is categorized under Global Database’s USA – Table US.JA029: Trade Statistics: Services: Brazil.
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Portugal PT: Number of Researchers: % of Total Researchers: Female data was reported at 42.131 % in 2022. This records a decrease from the previous number of 42.564 % for 2021. Portugal PT: Number of Researchers: % of Total Researchers: Female data is updated yearly, averaging 43.619 % from Dec 1997 (Median) to 2022, with 26 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 45.417 % in 2013 and a record low of 41.490 % in 1997. Portugal PT: Number of Researchers: % of Total Researchers: Female data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Portugal – Table PT.OECD.MSTI: Number of Researchers and Personnel on Research and Development: OECD Member: Annual.
In Portugal, a significant number of entities previously classified in the PNP sector were re-classified to the higher education sector in 2013. Besides, R&D personnel occupation categories have been reviewed: researchers, technicians and other support staff have been defined according to the main functions performed by each individual as part of R&D activities and according to criteria based on the ISCO classification, rather than being defined only by the level of academic qualification. In 2008, the number of R&D personnel increased because of methodological improvements: the results of the individual survey forms were combined with information from other internal databases resulting notably in the inclusion of all permanent academic staff and all researchers funded by the Ministry of science, technology and higher education in 2008.
Due to methodological improvements in the 2008 R&D survey as well as complementary information collected from internal databases, there is now a more complete and accurate measure of R&D resources - both expenditure and personnel - in the Higher education sector. In particular, the large increase in higher education funded R&D is due to the inclusion of more accurate data related to private higher education institutions.
Beginning with the 2007 survey, the following measures resulted in a significant increase in Business enterprise R&D: the reintroduction of the fiscal incentive, SIFIDE; an increase in the number of the firms performing R&D activities; and an updating of the Business Enterprise register.
New methodological procedures have been adopted for the 1997 survey so that only R&D activities are covered in the survey. The classification of BERD by NACE (Rev 1) was introduced and the data have been revised back to 1995. Some of the PNP units have been re-classified to the Business Enterprise and Higher Education sectors.
In 1997, due to a new accounting method for structural funds from the European Commission, funds from the Rest of the World and direct Government financing are not comparable with those of earlier years.
Before 2002, GBARD figures include EU funding programs. Thereafter, they are excluded, as set out in the 2015 Frascati Manual.
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Italy IT: Number of Researchers: Female data was reported at 78,539.000 Person in 2021. This records an increase from the previous number of 75,762.000 Person for 2020. Italy IT: Number of Researchers: Female data is updated yearly, averaging 51,085.500 Person from Dec 1998 (Median) to 2021, with 24 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 78,539.000 Person in 2021 and a record low of 25,647.000 Person in 1998. Italy IT: Number of Researchers: Female data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Italy – Table IT.OECD.MSTI: Number of Researchers and Personnel on Research and Development: OECD Member: Annual.
For Italy, the population frame was improved in 2016 (the number of units increased by +18% compared to the 2015 frame) and for the first time, an imputation procedure was applied for handling non responses. In 2005 and 1997, new methods for estimating R&D in universities were introduced, resulting in breaks in series in the higher education sector.
Up until 1990, the total expenditure on R&D is overestimated by more than 10% as extramural R&D expenditures is included. From 1991, data on extramural R&D expenditure is available separately.
2010 GBARD data are calculated with a new set of coefficients especially affecting the data on non-oriented research programmes.
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United States Exports: Services: HK: OB: Research & Development data was reported at 12.000 USD mn in 2016. This records a decrease from the previous number of 14.000 USD mn for 2015. United States Exports: Services: HK: OB: Research & Development data is updated yearly, averaging 20.000 USD mn from Dec 2006 to 2016, with 11 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 72.000 USD mn in 2011 and a record low of 6.000 USD mn in 2014. United States Exports: Services: HK: OB: Research & Development data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Bureau of Economic Analysis. The data is categorized under Global Database’s USA – Table US.JA036: Trade Statistics: Services: Hong Kong.
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Turkey TR: Total R&D Personnel: Per Thousand Total Employment data was reported at 8.958 Per 1000 in 2022. This records an increase from the previous number of 8.551 Per 1000 for 2021. Turkey TR: Total R&D Personnel: Per Thousand Total Employment data is updated yearly, averaging 2.745 Per 1000 from Dec 1990 (Median) to 2022, with 33 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 8.958 Per 1000 in 2022 and a record low of 0.855 Per 1000 in 1990. Turkey TR: Total R&D Personnel: Per Thousand Total Employment data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Turkey – Table TR.OECD.MSTI: Number of Researchers and Personnel on Research and Development: OECD Member: Annual.
Before 2016, total R&D personnel data for Türkiye are underestimated because personnel data for the Higher Education sector only include researchers. From 2008, universities’ own R&D funds are included in funding from the Higher education whereas they were previously distributed into the other funding categories.
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Description: This dataset contains historical economic data spanning from 1871 to 2024, used in Jaouad Karfali’s research on Economic Cycle Analysis with Numerical Time Cycles. The study aims to improve economic forecasting accuracy through the 9-year cycle model, which demonstrates superior predictive capabilities compared to traditional economic indicators.
Dataset Contents: The dataset includes a comprehensive range of economic indicators used in the research, such as:
USGDP_1871-2024.csv – U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data. USCPI_cleaned.csv – U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI), cleaned and processed. USWAGE_1871-2024.csv – U.S. average wages data. EXCHANGEGLOBAL_cleaned.csv – Global exchange rates for the U.S. dollar. EXCHANGEPOUND_cleaned.csv – U.S. dollar to British pound exchange rates. INTERESTRATE_1871-2024.csv – U.S. interest rate data. UNRATE.csv – U.S. unemployment rate statistics. POPTOTUSA647NWDB.csv – U.S. total population data. Significance of the Data: This dataset serves as a foundation for a robust economic analysis of the U.S. economy over multiple decades. It was instrumental in testing the 9-year economic cycle model, which demonstrated an 85% accuracy rate in economic forecasting when compared to traditional models such as ARIMA and VAR.
Applications:
Economic Forecasting: Predicts a 1.5% decline in GDP in 2025, followed by a gradual recovery between 2026-2034. Economic Stability Analysis: Used for comparing forecasts with estimates from institutions like the IMF and World Bank. Academic and Institutional Research: Supports studies in economic cycles and long-term forecasting. Source & Further Information: For more details on the methodology and research findings, refer to the full paper published on SSRN:
https://ssrn.com/author=7429208 https://orcid.org/0009-0002-9626-7289