Fault Lines Widen in the Global Recovery

Economic prospects have diverged further across countries since the April 2021 World Economic Outlook (WEO) forecast. Vaccine access has emerged as the principal fault line along which the global recovery splits into two blocs: those that can look forward to further normalization of activity later this year (almost all advanced economies) and those that will still face resurgent infections and rising COVID death tolls. The recovery, however, is not assured even in countries where infections are currently very low so long as the virus circulates elsewhere.

The global economy is projected to grow 6.0 percent in 2021 and 4.9 percent in 2022.The 2021 global forecast is unchanged from the April 2021 WEO, but with offsetting revisions. Prospects for emerging market and developing economies have been marked down for 2021, especially for Emerging Asia. By contrast, the forecast for advanced economies is revised up. These revisions reflect pandemic developments and changes in policy support. The 0.5 percentage-point upgrade for 2022 derives largely from the forecast upgrade for advanced economies, particularly the United States, reflecting the anticipated legislation of additional fiscal support in the second half of 2021 and improved health metrics more broadly across the group.

Recent price pressures for the most part reflect unusual pandemic-related developments and transitory supply-demand mismatches. Inflation is expected to return to its pre-pandemic ranges in most countries in 2022 once these disturbances work their way through prices, though uncertainty remains high. Elevated inflation is also expected in some emerging market and developing economies, related in part to high food prices. Central banks should generally look through transitory inflation pressures and avoid tightening until there is more clarity on underlying price dynamics. Clear communication from central banks on the outlook for monetary policy will be key to shaping inflation expectations and safeguarding against premature tightening of financial conditions. There is, however, a risk that transitory pressures could become more persistent and central banks may need to take preemptive action.

Risks around the global baseline are to the downside. Slower-than-anticipated vaccine rollout would allow the virus to mutate further. Financial conditions could tighten rapidly, for instance from a reassessment of the monetary policy outlook in advanced economies if inflation expectations increase more rapidly than anticipated. A double hit to emerging market and developing economies from worsening pandemic dynamics and tighter external financial conditions would severely set back their recovery and drag global growth below this outlook’s baseline.

Multilateral action has a vital role to play in diminishing divergences and strengthening global prospects. The immediate priority is to deploy vaccines equitably worldwide. A $50 billion IMF staff proposal, jointly endorsed by the World Health Organization, World Trade Organization, and World Bank, provides clear targets and pragmatic actions at a feasible cost to end the pandemic. Financially constrained economies also need unimpeded access to international liquidity. The proposed $650 billion General Allocation of Special Drawing Rights at the IMF is set to boost reserve assets of all economies and help ease liquidity constraints. Countries also need to redouble collective efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. These multilateral actions can be reinforced by national-level policies tailored to the stage of the crisis that help catalyze a sustainable, inclusive recovery. Concerted, well-directed policies can make the difference between a future of durable recoveries for all economies or one with widening fault lines—as many struggle with the health crisis while a handful see conditions normalize, albeit with the constant threat of renewed flare-ups.

By April 2026, it is projected that there is a probability of ***** percent that the United States will fall into another economic recession. This reflects a significant decrease from the projection of the preceding month.

Across the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, and the European Union, gross domestic products (GDP) decreased in 2020 as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, by 2021, growth rates were positive in all four areas again. The United Kingdom, Germany, and the European Union all experiencing slow economic growth in 2023 amid high inflation, with Germany even seeing an economic recession. GDP and its components GDP refers to the total market value of all goods and services that are produced within a country per year. It is composed of government spending, consumption, business investments and net exports. It is an important indicator to measure the economic strength of a country. Economists rely on a variety of factors when predicting the future performance of the GDP. Inflation rate is one of the economic indicators providing insight into the future behavior of households, which make up a significant proportion of GDP. Projections are based on the past performance of such information. Future considerations Some factors can be more easily predicted than others. For example, projections of the annual inflation rate of the United States are easy to come by. However, the intensity and impact of something like Brexit is difficult to predict. Moreover, the occurrence and impact of events such as the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia's war in Ukraine is difficult to foresee. Hence, actual GDP growth may be higher or lower than the original estimates.

The impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) lockdown in India slashed GDP growth forecasts for financial year 2021. Among the agencies that estimated growth, World Bank predicted a contraction of nearly *** percent, while the SBI (before the Maharashtra lockdown in April 2021) estimated a decline of ***** percent.

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Ireland IE: Balance of Payment: Current Account Balance: as % of GDP: Single Hit Scenario data was reported at -25.786 % in Dec 2021. This records an increase from the previous number of -25.958 % for Sep 2021. Ireland IE: Balance of Payment: Current Account Balance: as % of GDP: Single Hit Scenario data is updated quarterly, averaging -0.631 % from Mar 1990 (Median) to Dec 2021, with 128 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 20.456 % in Dec 2017 and a record low of -38.125 % in Jun 2017. Ireland IE: Balance of Payment: Current Account Balance: as % of GDP: Single Hit Scenario data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Ireland – Table IE.OECD.EO: Balance of Payments: Current Account: Forecast: OECD Member: Quarterly. CBGDPR-Current account balance, as a percentage of GDP Sixth Edition of the IMF's Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual (BPM6):https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/bop/2007/bopman6.htm OECD Economic Outlook, Database Inventory:https://www.oecd.org/eco/outlook/Database_Inventory.pdf

The benchmark interest rate in the United States was last recorded at 4 percent. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - United States Fed Funds Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

Japan JP: Balance of Payment: Current Account Balance: as % of GDP: Single Hit Scenario data was reported at 3.581 % in Dec 2021. This records a decrease from the previous number of 3.665 % for Sep 2021. Japan JP: Balance of Payment: Current Account Balance: as % of GDP: Single Hit Scenario data is updated quarterly, averaging 2.460 % from Mar 1968 (Median) to Dec 2021, with 216 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 4.790 % in Dec 2007 and a record low of -2.087 % in Mar 1974. Japan JP: Balance of Payment: Current Account Balance: as % of GDP: Single Hit Scenario data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Japan – Table JP.OECD.EO: Balance of Payments: Current Account: Forecast: OECD Member: Quarterly. CBGDPR-Current account balance, as a percentage of GDP Sixth Edition of the IMF's Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual (BPM6):https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/bop/2007/bopman6.htm OECD Economic Outlook, Database Inventory:https://www.oecd.org/eco/outlook/Database_Inventory.pdf

A tabular summary of British Columbia's 2021-22 First Quarterly Report - 2021/22 Economic Outlook and Financial Forecast & Three Month Results April - June 2021.

A tabular summary of British Columbia's 2021-22 Second Quarterly Report - Fiscal Plan Update 2021/22 - 2023/24, Economic Outlook & Six Month Financial Results April - September 2021

Economic Activity Index in China decreased to 50.80 points in October from 51.70 points in September of 2021. This dataset provides - China Economic Activity Index- actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

SB: KY: Outlook: RN: More than 6 Months data was reported at 28.400 % in 11 Apr 2022. This records a decrease from the previous number of 30.000 % for 04 Apr 2022. SB: KY: Outlook: RN: More than 6 Months data is updated weekly, averaging 33.000 % from Nov 2021 (Median) to 11 Apr 2022, with 18 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 42.000 % in 15 Nov 2021 and a record low of 24.000 % in 27 Dec 2021. SB: KY: Outlook: RN: More than 6 Months data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by U.S. Census Bureau. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.S: Small Business Pulse Survey: by State: South Region: Weekly, Beg Monday (Discontinued).

The DELi regional socioeconomic projections 2024 include projections of annual population change rate, natural change rate, net migration rate, GDP growth and GDP per capita growth for the EU27 at the NUTS3 level according to the NUTS 2021 version. All the changes are expressed in percentage points. The population change rate corresponds to the sum of natural change rate and net migration rate. Population change, natural change and net migration for the year x can be obtained as follows: population_change(x) = population(x) * pop_change_rate(x) / 100, natural_change(x) = population(x) * nat_change_rate(x) / 100, net_migration(x) = population(x) * net_mig_rate(x) / 100. For population projections: population(x+1) = population(x) + population_change(x) = population(x) * (1 + pop_change_rate(x) / 100). For GDP projections: GDP(x+1) = GDP(x) * (1 + GDP_growth(x) / 100). UNIT OF MEASURE: pop_change_rate, nat_change_rate, net_mig_rate, GDP_growth, GDPpc_growth. RESOLUTION: NUTS3. COMPLETENESS: EU27, missing Départements d'Outre Mer (FRY10, FRY20, FRY30, FRY40, FRY50). POLICY CONTEXT: This dataset was produced in the context of the Rural Observatory, in a collaboration between the JRC, DG AGRI and DE REGIO. A working paper has been published analysing the results of the projections, available at https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC140514. METHODOLOGY: The projections have been generated using the Demography-Economy-Land use interaction (DELi) model. DELi regionalizes exogenous, socioeconomic and demographic projections from national to regional level, capturing interactions between demography, economy, and land use. The DELi model is described in a dedicated technical report: https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC136498. DATA SOURCES: The regional projections have been generated using national level projections and historical regional data. The national level projections have been retrieved from the ageing report 2021 (https://economy-finance.ec.europa.eu/publications/2021-ageing-report-economic-and-budgetary-projections-eu-member-states-2019-2070_en). The historical regional data have been retrieved from ARDECO (https://knowledge4policy.ec.europa.eu/territorial/ardeco-database_en). LEVEL OF AGGREGATION: NUTS3 UNCERTAINTY AND LIMITATIONS: These projections are based on a 'business as usual' scenario, whereby observed variable relationships remain constant in the future. DELi does predict shocks and their impacts.

United States SB: WV: Outlook: FN: Develop Online Sales/Websites data was reported at 10.300 % in 03 Jan 2022. This records a decrease from the previous number of 13.200 % for 29 Nov 2021. United States SB: WV: Outlook: FN: Develop Online Sales/Websites data is updated weekly, averaging 13.200 % from Nov 2021 (Median) to 03 Jan 2022, with 3 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 13.200 % in 29 Nov 2021 and a record low of 10.300 % in 03 Jan 2022. United States SB: WV: Outlook: FN: Develop Online Sales/Websites data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by U.S. Census Bureau. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.S051: Small Business Pulse Survey: by State: South Region: Weekly, Beg Monday (Discontinued).

United States SB: CO: Outlook: Business Travel: Not Applicable data was reported at 28.800 % in 11 Apr 2022. This records a decrease from the previous number of 29.900 % for 04 Apr 2022. United States SB: CO: Outlook: Business Travel: Not Applicable data is updated weekly, averaging 29.450 % from Nov 2021 (Median) to 11 Apr 2022, with 18 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 33.800 % in 20 Dec 2021 and a record low of 23.900 % in 29 Nov 2021. United States SB: CO: Outlook: Business Travel: Not Applicable data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by U.S. Census Bureau. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.S053: Small Business Pulse Survey: by State: West Region: Weekly, Beg Monday (Discontinued).

United States - FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Growth Rate of Real Gross Domestic Product, Range, High was 2.60000 Fourth Qtr. to Fourth Qtr. % Chg. in January of 2028, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, United States - FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Growth Rate of Real Gross Domestic Product, Range, High reached a record high of 5.80000 in January of 2021 and a record low of -1.00000 in January of 2020. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for United States - FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Growth Rate of Real Gross Domestic Product, Range, High - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on December of 2025.

United States - Longer Run FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Civilian Unemployment Rate, Median was 4.20% in March of 2025, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, United States - Longer Run FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Civilian Unemployment Rate, Median reached a record high of 5.00 in June of 2015 and a record low of 4.00 in March of 2021. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for United States - Longer Run FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Civilian Unemployment Rate, Median - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on November of 2025.

A tabular summary of British Columbia's 2021-22 Second Quarterly Report - Fiscal Plan Update 2021/22 - 2023/24, Economic Outlook & Six Month Financial Results April - September 2021

The NextGenerationEU economic stimulus plan is set to be implemented according to each European Union member state's national recovery & resilience plan between 2021 and 2026. The stimulus effect which this will have varies across the different member states, with those states which are set to receive a relatively large stimulus package compared with their GDP experiencing a greater boost to growth than others, according to GDP forecasts.

Countries such as Greece, Bulgaria, and Croatia are set to experience as much as three percent additional GDP growth over the target years for the NextGenEU programs. On the other hand, countries such as Sweden, the Netherlands, and Austria, who will receive relatively smaller packages, will experience additional GDP growth of less than one percent per year, mostly caused by spillovers from other countries' plans. While the packages are to be dispersed between 2021 and 2026, the effect on GDP growth in many countries is set to be long-lasting, with growth being boosted into the 2030s.

Consumer Credit in Belarus increased to 5241.70 BYN Million in December from 5222.80 BYN Million in November of 2021. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - Belarus Consumer Credit - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.