By April 2026, it is projected that there is a probability of ***** percent that the United States will fall into another economic recession. This reflects a significant decrease from the projection of the preceding month.

Graph and download economic data for Dates of U.S. recessions as inferred by GDP-based recession indicator (JHDUSRGDPBR) from Q4 1967 to Q4 2024 about recession indicators, GDP, and USA.

The Long Depression was, by a large margin, the longest-lasting recession in U.S. history. It began in the U.S. with the Panic of 1873, and lasted for over five years. This depression was the largest in a series of recessions at the turn of the 20th century, which proved to be a period of overall stagnation as the U.S. financial markets failed to keep pace with industrialization and changes in monetary policy. Great Depression The Great Depression, however, is widely considered to have been the most severe recession in U.S. history. Following the Wall Street Crash in 1929, the country's economy collapsed, wages fell and a quarter of the workforce was unemployed. It would take almost four years for recovery to begin. Additionally, U.S. expansion and integration in international markets allowed the depression to become a global event, which became a major catalyst in the build up to the Second World War. Decreasing severity When comparing recessions before and after the Great Depression, they have generally become shorter and less frequent over time. Only three recessions in the latter period have lasted more than one year. Additionally, while there were 12 recessions between 1880 and 1920, there were only six recessions between 1980 and 2020. The most severe recession in recent years was the financial crisis of 2007 (known as the Great Recession), where irresponsible lending policies and lack of government regulation allowed for a property bubble to develop and become detached from the economy over time, this eventually became untenable and the bubble burst. Although the causes of both the Great Depression and Great Recession were similar in many aspects, economists have been able to use historical evidence to try and predict, prevent, or limit the impact of future recessions.

In October 2024, the Sahm recession indicator was 0.43, a slight decrease from the previous month. The Sahm Rule was developed to flag the onset of an economic recession more quickly than other indicators. The Sahm Rule signals the start of a recession when the three-month moving average of the national unemployment rate rises by 0.50 percentage points or more relative to its low during the previous 12 months.

Graph and download economic data for Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator (SAHMREALTIME) from Dec 1959 to Jun 2025 about recession indicators, academic data, and USA.

Probability of Recession: United States data was reported at 0.995 % in Mar 2025. This records a decrease from the previous number of 1.031 % for Feb 2025. Probability of Recession: United States data is updated monthly, averaging 1.564 % from Jan 1980 (Median) to Mar 2025, with 543 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 87.972 % in May 2020 and a record low of 0.021 % in Jan 1980. Probability of Recession: United States data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by CEIC Data. The data is categorized under World Trend Plus’s CEIC Leading Indicator – Table US.S002: Probability of Recession.

Graph and download economic data for NBER based Recession Indicators for the United States from the Peak through the Period preceding the Trough (USRECDP) from 1854-12-01 to 2025-07-10 about peak, trough, recession indicators, and USA.

United States - GDP-Based Recession Indicator Index was 6.80000 Percentage Points in October of 2024, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, United States - GDP-Based Recession Indicator Index reached a record high of 100.00000 in April of 2020 and a record low of 0.00000 in July of 2020. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for United States - GDP-Based Recession Indicator Index - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on July of 2025.

Due to increasing inflation rates, economic growth has been slow in several countries worldwide, and some risk falling into recession. When asked about this, ** percent of respondents in South Korea believed that the country's economy had fallen into recession, and ** percent of respondents in Turkey did the same. In fact, South Korea's gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate increased by *** percent in the third quarter of 2023. Inflation increased rapidly around the world through 2022 and 2023, before it started falling in some countries in 2024.

Graph and download economic data for GDP-Based Recession Indicator Index (JHGDPBRINDX) from Q4 1967 to Q4 2024 about recession indicators, percent, GDP, and indexes.

The series assigns dates to U.S. recessions based on a mathematical model of the way that recessions differ from expansions. Whereas the NBER business cycle dates are based on a subjective assessment of a variety of indicators, the dates here are entirely mechanical and are calculated solely from historically reported GDP data. Whenever the GDP-based recession indicator index rises above 67%, the economy is determined to be in a recession. The date that the recession is determined to have begun is the first quarter prior to that date for which the inference from the mathematical model using all data available at that date would have been above 50%. The next time the GDP-based recession indicator index falls below 33%, the recession is determined to be over, and the last quarter of the recession is the first quarter for which the inference from the mathematical model using all available data at that date would have been below 50%.

For more information about this series visit http://econbrowser.com/recession-index.

This data package includes the underlying data files to replicate the data and charts presented in Egypt’s 2023-24 economic crisis: Will this time be different? by Ruchir Agarwal and Adnan Mazarei, PIIE Policy Brief 24-6.

If you use the data, please cite as: Agarwal, Ruchir, and Adnan Mazarei. 2024. Egypt’s 2023-24 economic crisis: Will this time be different?. PIIE Policy Brief 24-6. Washington, DC: Peterson Institute for International Economics.

GDP-Based Recession Indicator Index data was reported at 6.800 % Point in Dec 2024. This records an increase from the previous number of 2.300 % Point for Sep 2024. GDP-Based Recession Indicator Index data is updated quarterly, averaging 7.900 % Point from Dec 1967 (Median) to Dec 2024, with 229 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 100.000 % Point in Jun 2020 and a record low of 0.000 % Point in Sep 2020. GDP-Based Recession Indicator Index data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.S094: GDP-Based Recession Indicator Index.

Haiti is expected to experience the worst economic recession in Latin America and the Caribbean in 2024. Haiti's gross domestic product (GDP) in 2024 is forecast to be 3 percent lower than the value registered in 2023, based on constant prices. Aside from Argentina, Haiti, and Puerto Rico, most economies in the region were likely to experience economic growth in 2024, most notably, Guyana.

United States - Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities was 0.48% in April of 2025, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, United States - Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities reached a record high of 100.00 in March of 2020 and a record low of 0.00 in November of 1967. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for United States - Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on June of 2025.

Graph and download economic data for Sahm Rule Recession Indicator (SAHMCURRENT) from Mar 1949 to Jun 2025 about recession indicators, academic data, and USA.

According to a survey conducted in August 2024, over 20 percent of consumers in the United States believed both inflation and a pending recession would impact their Halloween spending plans. About the same number of people said these economic changes would not influence their spending.

According to Cognitive Market Research, the global AI Sensor Market with Recession Market size is USD 2.8 billion in 2024 and will expand at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 38.6% from 2024 to 2031. Market Dynamics of AI Sensor Market with Recession Market

Key Drivers for AI Sensor Market with Recession Market

Advancements in AI and Machine Learning: Rapid advances in artificial intelligence and machine learning are boosting the use of Al sensors. Algorithms are getting increasingly sophisticated and capable of handling complicated data from sensors, enabling real-time decision-making and predictive analytics. These developments allow Al sensors to detect patterns, anomalies, and trends in data streams, making them useful in applications such as picture recognition, natural language processing, and predictive maintenance. For instance, in manufacturing, Al sensors may detect faults in real time, improving quality control and lowering waste. Al sensors also improve the capability of autonomous systems and robots. They can perceive their surroundings, adjust to changing circumstances, and make sound decisions. This is especially crucial in industries like agriculture, where autonomous drones equipped with Al sensors can check crop health, detect pest infestations, and optimize pesticide use. Security and Surveillance applications

Key Restraints for AI Sensor Market with Recession Market

Capital Spending Delays in Price-Sensitive Sectors: Businesses in a variety of sectors, including retail, consumer electronics, and the automobile industry, frequently postpone or abandon capital-intensive initiatives and technological advancements during recessions. This has a direct impact on the use of AI sensors in consumer electronics, smart factories, and new goods, momentarily reducing market expansion.

Semiconductor shortages and supply chain disruptions: Complex semiconductor components are necessary for AI sensors, and supply chain bottlenecks are frequently made worse by global economic downturns. Delays in shipping, reduced manufacturing capacity, and geopolitical unrest can all affect sensor production and lengthen lead times, making it more difficult for industries to deploy sensors on time.

Key Trends for AI Sensor Market with Recession Market

Transition to Low-Cost Advanced AI Sensors: Industries are turning to edge AI sensors that analyze data locally in order to deal with financial restrictions. This eliminates the need for expensive cloud infrastructure and latency problems. Due to their simplicity of deployment and reduced total cost of ownership, small, energy-efficient sensors with on-chip AI are becoming more and more popular. Growing Utilization in Energy Efficiency and Predictive Maintenance: Operational efficiency is a top priority for financially stressed organizations, and AI sensors are essential for energy optimization and predictive maintenance. Industrial equipment with sensors built in can anticipate malfunctions, prolong the life of machinery, and use less electricity, all of which can result in quantifiable cost savings during recessions. Introduction of the AI Sensor Market with Recession Market

Al sensors are also improving the capabilities of autonomous systems and robots. They can perceive their surroundings, adjust to changing conditions, and make sound decisions. This is especially crucial in industries like agriculture, where autonomous drones equipped with Al sensors can check crop health, detect pest infestations, and optimize pesticide use. Also, increased demand for life-saving healthcare equipment and self-driving capabilities in new electric vehicles are expected to fuel growth. The global shift towards digitization is expected to boost growth even further.

United States - Dates of U.S. recessions as inferred by GDP-based recession indicator was 0.00000 +1 or 0 in July of 2024, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, United States - Dates of U.S. recessions as inferred by GDP-based recession indicator reached a record high of 1.00000 in April of 1969 and a record low of 0.00000 in January of 1968. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for United States - Dates of U.S. recessions as inferred by GDP-based recession indicator - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on June of 2025.

The Weekly Economic Index (WEI) of the United States exhibited notable fluctuations between January 2021 and June 2025. Throughout this period, the WEI reached its lowest point at negative **** percent in the third week of February 2021, while achieving its peak at ***** percent in the first week of May 2021. From 2021 through the initial half of 2023, the WEI demonstrated a gradual decline, interspersed with occasional minor upturns. This phase was succeeded by a period characterized by a modest overall increase. What is the Weekly Economic Index? The Weekly Economic Index (WEI) is an index of real economic activity using high-frequency data, used to signal the state of the U.S. economy. It is an index of ** daily and weekly indicators, scaled to align with the four-quarter GDP growth rate. The indicators reflected in the WEI cover consumer behavior, the labor market, and production.