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Quarterly estimates of national product, income and expenditure, sector accounts and balance of payments.
Each month we publish independent forecasts of key economic and fiscal indicators for the UK economy. Forecasts before 2010 are hosted by The National Archives.
We began publishing comparisons of independent forecasts in 1986. The first database brings together selected variables from those publications, averaged across forecasters. It includes series for Gross Domestic Product, the Consumer Prices Index, the Retail Prices Index, the Retail Prices Index excluding mortgage interest payments, Public Sector Net Borrowing and the Claimant Count. Our second database contains time series of independent forecasts for GDP growth, private consumption, government consumption, fixed investment, domestic demand and net trade, for 26 forecasters with at least 10 years’ worth of submissions since 2010.
We’d welcome feedback on how you find the database and any extra information that you’d like to see included. Email your comments to Carter.Adams@hmtreasury.gov.uk.
Open Government Licence 3.0http://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-government-licence/version/3/
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Quarterly estimates of national product, income and expenditure, sector accounts and balance of payments.
The UK economy shrank by 0.1 percent in May 2025 after shrinking by 0.3 percent in April. Since a huge decline in GDP in April 2020, the UK economy has gradually recovered and is now around 4.4 percent larger than it was before the COVID-19 pandemic. After the initial recovery from the pandemic, however, the UK economy has effectively flatlined, fluctuating between low growth and small contractions since January 2022. Labour banking on growth to turn around fortunes in 2025 In February 2025, just over half a year after winning the last general election, the approval rating for the new Labour government fell to a low of -48 percent. Furthermore, the Prime Minister, Keir Starmer was not only less popular than the new Conservative leader, Kemi Badenoch, but also the leader of the Reform Party, Nigel Farage, whose party have surged in opinion polls recently. This remarkable decline in popularity for the new government is, in some part, due to a deliberate policy of making tough decisions early. Arguably, the most damaging of these policies was the withdrawal of the winter fuel allowance for some pensioners, although other factors such as a controversy about gifts and donations also hurt the government. While Labour aims to restore the UK's economic and political credibility in the long term, they will certainly hope for some good economic news sooner rather than later. Economy bounces back in 2024 after ending 2023 in recession Due to two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth, in late 2023 the UK economy ended the year in recession. After not growing at all in the second quarter of 2023, UK GDP fell by 0.1 percent in the third quarter, and then by 0.3 percent in the last quarter. For the whole of 2023, the economy grew by 0.4 percent compared to 2022, and for 2024 is forecast to have grown by 1.1 percent. During the first two quarters of 2024, UK GDP grew by 0.7 percent, and 0.4 percent, with this relatively strong growth followed by zero percent growth in the third quarter of the year. Although the economy had started to grow again by the time of the 2024 general election, this was not enough to save the Conservative government at the time. Despite usually seen as the best party for handling the economy, the Conservative's economic competency was behind that of Labour on the eve of the 2024 election.
The United Kingdom's economy grew by 1.1 percent in 2024, after a growth rate of 0.4 percent in 2023, 4.8 percent in 2022, 8.6 percent in 2021, and a record 10.3 percent fall in 2020. During the provided time period, the biggest annual fall in gross domestic product before 2020 occurred in 2009, when the UK economy contracted by 4.6 percent at the height of the global financial crisis of the late 2000s. Before 2021, the year with the highest annual GDP growth rate was 1973, when the UK economy grew by 6.5 percent. UK economy growing but GDP per capita falling In 2022, the UK's GDP per capita amounted to approximately 37,371 pounds, with this falling to 37,028 pounds in 2023, and 36,977 pounds in 2024. While the UK economy as a whole grew during this time, the UK's population grew at a faster rate, resulting in the negative growth in GDP per capita. This suggests the UK economy's struggles with productivity are not only stagnating, but getting worse. The relatively poor economic performance of the UK in recent years has not gone unnoticed by the electorate, with the economy consistently seen as the most important issue for voters since 2022. Recent shocks to UK economy In the second quarter of 2020, the UK economy shrank by a record 20.3 percent at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic. Although there was a relatively swift economic recovery initially, the economy has struggled to grow much beyond its pre-pandemic size, and was only around 3.1 percent larger in December 2024, when compared with December 2019. Although the labor market has generally been quite resilient during this time, a long twenty-month period between 2021 and 2023 saw prices rise faster than wages, and inflation surge to a high of 11.1 percent in October 2022.
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Annual and quarterly data for UK gross domestic product (GDP) estimates, in chained volume measures and current market prices.
The UK economy grew by 0.7 percent in the first quarter of 2025, compared with 0.1 percent growth in the previous quarter. After ending 2023 in recession, the UK economy grew strongly in the first half of 2024, growing by 0.8 percent in Q1, and 0.4 percent in Q2, with growth slowing in the second half of the year. In the third quarter of 2020 the UK experienced record setting growth of 16.8 percent, which itself followed the record 20.3 percent contraction in Q2 2020. Growing economy key to Labour's plans Since winning the 2024 general election, the UK's Labour Party have seen their popularity fall substantially. In February 2025, the government's approval rating fell to a low of -54 percent, making them almost as disliked as the Conservatives just before the last election. A string of unpopular policies since taking office have taken a heavy toll on support for the government. Labour hope they can reverse their declining popularity by growing the economy, which has underperformed for several years, and when measured in GDP per capita, fell in 2023, and 2024. Steady labor market trends set to continue? After a robust 2022, the UK labor market remained resilient throughout 2023 and 2024. The unemployment rate at the end of 2024 was 4.4 percent, up from four percent at the start of the year, but still one of the lowest rates on record. While the average number of job vacancies has been falling since a May 2022 peak, there was a slight increase in January 2025 when compared with the previous month. The more concerning aspect of the labor market, from the government's perspective, are the high levels of economic inactivity due to long-term sickness, which reached a peak of 2.84 million in late 2023, and remained at high levels throughout 2024.
The Rural Economic Bulletin is a compendium of economics statistics for Rural and Urban areas in England.
Previously published as a separate report, the Bulletin is now one of the eight thematic reports which make up the Statistical Digest of Rural England. Previous versions of the Bulletin up to 2022 are available from the National Archive. This page also includes a timeline through which users can find any archived editions of the Bulletin.
The July 2025 release of the Digest includes analysis updates for the following topics within this theme:
The supplementary data tables provide additional statistics for each section of the Digest, using the Rural-Urban Classification categories. The Local Authority data tables supply the disaggregated datasets, used to conduct analysis in the Digest, at a Local Authority level where feasible.
Defra statistics: rural
Email mailto:rural.statistics@defra.gov.uk">rural.statistics@defra.gov.uk
<p class="govuk-body">You can also contact us via Twitter: <a href="https://twitter.com/DefraStats" class="govuk-link">https://twitter.com/DefraStats</a></p>
Copies of the Rural Economic Bulletin publication are available from the National Archive.
https://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/ukgwa/20250415152136/https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/quarterly-rural-economic-bulletin" class="govuk-link">Rural Economic Bulletin, 15 April 2025
https://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/ukgwa/20241015153452/https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/quarterly-rural-economic-bulletin" class="govuk-link">Rural Economic Bulletin, 15 October 2024
https://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/ukgwa/20240910153043/https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/quarterly-rural-economic-bulletin" class="govuk-link">Rural Economic Bulletin, 10 September 2024
https://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/ukgwa/20240716154314/https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/quarterly-rural-economic-bulletin" class="govuk-link">Rural Economic Bulletin, 16 July 2024
https://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/ukgwa/20240312163918/https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/quarterly-rural-economic-bulletin" class="govuk-link">Rural Economic Bulletin, 12 March 2024
https://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/ukgwa/20231114163928/https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/quarterly-rural-economic-bulletin" class="govuk-link">Rural Economic Bulletin, 14 November 2023
https://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/ukgwa/20230718155114/https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/quarterly-rural-economic-bulletin" class="govuk-link">Rural Economic Bulletin, 18 July 2023
https://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/ukgwa/20230516152303/https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/quarterly-rural-economic-bulletin" class="govuk-link">Rural Economic Bulletin, 16 May 2023
<a rel="external" href="https://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/ukgwa/20230314171322/https://www.gov
This Annual GVA series is our most accurate estimate of Digital Sector GVA. These Economic Estimates are Accredited Official Statistics used to provide an estimate of the contribution of the Digital Sector and its associated subsectors to the UK, measured by GVA (gross value added).
This is the first release of provisional annual estimates for 2023, and Blue Book 2024 inclusive revisions to 2019 to 2022 annual estimates. The provisional Annual GVA estimates for 2023 for the Digital Sector will be revised in our next release, upon updates to underlying ABS data, and further revised in the following statistical release to include Blue Book 2025 revisions. Our next release is planned to include a full analytical report providing additional analysis on our produced GVA estimates.
This release includes a methodology update to the deflators used to remove the effects of inflation in our chained volume measure estimates. A summary of the revisions to 2019 to 2022 estimates as part of this release can be found in the accompanying revisions report.
This is a continuation of the Digital Sector Economic Estimates: Annual GVA release series, previously produced by the Department for Culture, Media and Sport (DCMS). Responsibility for Digital and Telecommunications policy now sits with the Department for Science, Innovation and Technology (DSIT).
Findings in this release are calculated based on the published Office for National Statistics (ONS) https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/supplyandusetables/datasets/supplyanduseofproductsandindustrygvaukexperimental" class="govuk-link">Supply and Use Tables, ONS https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/datasets/ukgdpolowlevelaggregates" class="govuk-link">Gross Domestic Product (GDP) low-level aggregates and the ONS https://www.ons.gov.uk/businessindustryandtrade/business/businessservices/methodologies/annualbusinesssurveyabs" class="govuk-link">Annual Business Survey (ABS).
The Supply and Use Tables (SUT) report balanced GVA at the 2-digit Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) code level up to 2022. SUT <abbr title="Gross V
Official statistics are produced impartially and free from political influence.
In the first quarter of 2025, the economic activity rate for the working age population in the United Kingdom was **** percent.
In 2025, the UK economy is expected to grow by just one percent, according to the economic and fiscal outlook from March 2025. GDP growth has been downgraded from two percent when compared with the previous forecast from October 2024. The inflation rate is expected to average out at 3.2 percent, and the unemployment rate at 4.5 percent. Inflation distress continues for UK consumers The expected increase in UK inflation for 2025 looks set to peak at 3.7 percent in the third quarter of the year, before falling to two percent by early 2026. Though this spike in prices will be far less serious than in 2022, when UK inflation reached a peak of 11.1 percent in October 2022, UK households are still suffering from the impact of the previous crisis. In March 2025, approximately 59 percent of UK households were dealing with rising living costs, relative to the previous month, mainly due to rising energy and food costs. Unemployment set to rise in 2025 Aside from rising prices and a slowing economy, the UK will also have to contend with rising unemployment in 2025. As with inflation, however, the rise in unemployment is expected to be relatively mild and short-lived, especially when compared with previous periods of high unemployment. Recently, the government has been more concerned about high levels of economic inactivity, especially among young people, with the number of 16- to 24-year-olds not in employment, education, or training approaching one million towards the end of 2024.
Data sources: England & Wales - Office for National Statistics (ONS)Scotland - National Records of Scotland (NRS)Northern Ireland - Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA)Coverage: United Kingdom The boundaries used have been generalised using a point remove algorithm for web display using the following thresholds:Euro Regions - 250 metres Local Authorities - 150 metres Middle Super Output Area (MSOA) - 100 metres Lower Super Output Area (LSOA) - 75 metres Output Area (OA) - 50 metres The boundaries have been set to display at the following scale thresholds: Euro Regions - > 1:4,000,000 Local Authorities - 1:300,000 – 1:4,000,000 Middle Super Output Area (MSOA) - 1:100,000 – 1:300,000 Lower Super Output Area (LSOA) - 1:40,000 – 1:100,000 Output Area (OA) - < 1:40,000Ever wondered how Census information can be used in analysis? Take a look at our supermarket and census story map.
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Quarterly national accounts aggregates, per head data. These include gross domestic product by income and expenditure, gross value added, gross fixed capital formation, change in inventories, gross operating surplus and revisions.
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United Kingdom UK: GDP: USD data was reported at 2,622.434 USD bn in 2017. This records a decrease from the previous number of 2,650.850 USD bn for 2016. United Kingdom UK: GDP: USD data is updated yearly, averaging 918.504 USD bn from Dec 1960 (Median) to 2017, with 58 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 3,074.360 USD bn in 2007 and a record low of 72.328 USD bn in 1960. United Kingdom UK: GDP: USD data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by World Bank. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United Kingdom – Table UK.World Bank.WDI: Gross Domestic Product: Nominal. GDP at purchaser's prices is the sum of gross value added by all resident producers in the economy plus any product taxes and minus any subsidies not included in the value of the products. It is calculated without making deductions for depreciation of fabricated assets or for depletion and degradation of natural resources. Data are in current U.S. dollars. Dollar figures for GDP are converted from domestic currencies using single year official exchange rates. For a few countries where the official exchange rate does not reflect the rate effectively applied to actual foreign exchange transactions, an alternative conversion factor is used.; ; World Bank national accounts data, and OECD National Accounts data files.; Gap-filled total;
Reported DCMS Sector GVA is estimated to have fallen by 0.4% from Quarter 2 (April to June) to Quarter 3 2022 (July to September) in real terms. By comparison, the whole UK economy fell by 0.2% from Quarter 2 to Quarter 3 2022.
GVA of reported DCMS Sectors in September 2022 was 6% above February 2020 levels, which was the most recent month not significantly affected by the pandemic. By comparison, GVA for the whole UK economy was 0.2% lower than in February 2020.
16 November 2022
These Economic Estimates are Official Statistics used to provide an estimate of the economic contribution of DCMS Sectors in terms of gross value added (GVA), for the period January 2019 to September 2022. Provisional monthly GVA in 2019 and 2020 was first published in March 2021 as an ad hoc statistical release. This current release contains new figures for July to September 2022 and revised estimates for previous months, in line with the scheduled revisions that were made to the underlying ONS datasets in October 2022.
Estimates are in chained volume measures (i.e. have been adjusted for inflation), at 2019 prices, and are seasonally adjusted. These latest monthly estimates should only be used to illustrate general trends, not used as definitive figures.
You can use these estimates to:
You should not use these estimates to:
Estimates of annual GVA by DCMS Sectors, based on the monthly series, are included in this release for 2019 to 2021. These are calculated by summing the monthly estimates for the calendar year and were first published for 2019 and 2020 in DCMS Sector National Economic Estimates: 2011 - 2020.
Since August 2022, we have been publishing these estimates as part of the regular published series of GVA data, with data being revised in line with revisions to the underlying ONS datasets, as with the monthly GVA estimates. These estimates have been published, updating what was first published last year, in order to meet growing demand for annual figures for GVA beyond the 2019 estimates in our National Statistics GVA publication. The National Statistics GVA publication estimates remain the most robust for our sectors, however estimates for years after 2019 have been delayed owing to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic.
Consequently, these “summed monthly” annual estimate figures for GVA can be used but should not be seen as definitive.
The findings are calculated based on published ONS data sources including the Index of Services and Index of Production.
These data sources provide an estimate of the monthly change in GVA for all UK industries. However, the data is only available for broader industry groups, whereas DCMS sectors are defined at a more detailed industrial level. For example, GVA for ‘Cultural education’ is estimated based on the trend for all education. Sectors such as ‘Cultural education’ may have been affected differently by COVID-19 compared to education in general. These estimates are also based on the composition of the economy in 2019. Overall, this means the accuracy of monthly GVA for DCMS sectors is likely to be lower for months in 2020 and 2021.
The technical guidance contains further information about data sources, methodology, and the validation and accuracy of these estimates.
Figures are provisional and subject to revision on a monthly basis when the ONS Index of Services and Index of Production are updated. Figures for the latest month will be highly uncertain.
An example of the impact of these revisions is highlighted in the following example; for the revisions applied in February 2022 the average change to DCMS sector monthly GVA was 0.6%, but there were larger differences for some sectors, in some months e.g. the value of the Sport sector in May 2021 was revised from £1.
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The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the United Kingdom expanded 0.70 percent in the first quarter of 2025 over the previous quarter. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - United Kingdom GDP Growth Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.
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United Kingdom UK: GDP: % of Manufacturing: Medium and High Tech Industry data was reported at 47.367 % in 2015. This records a decrease from the previous number of 50.178 % for 2014. United Kingdom UK: GDP: % of Manufacturing: Medium and High Tech Industry data is updated yearly, averaging 43.770 % from Dec 1990 (Median) to 2015, with 26 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 50.528 % in 2013 and a record low of 41.974 % in 2003. United Kingdom UK: GDP: % of Manufacturing: Medium and High Tech Industry data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by World Bank. The data is categorized under Global Database’s UK – Table UK.World Bank: Gross Domestic Product: Share of GDP. The proportion of medium and high-tech industry value added in total value added of manufacturing; ; United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO), Competitive Industrial Performance (CIP) database; ;
All estimates in this release are presented in 2022 prices and in chained volume measures. Estimates are provisional and subject to planned revisions. The index of estimated monthly GVA shows the growth or decline of the Digital Sector and its subsectors relative to January 2019.
This current release contains new monthly figures for April 2024 to June 2024 and minor revisions for January 2024 to March 2024.
Estimates of monthly GVA (£ million) are used to determine percentage changes over the relevant time periods mentioned here.
DSIT have recently concluded a consultation on the planned future of the Digital Sector Economic Estimates series - the DSIT response to this consultation can be accessed using this link.
26 September 2024
This is a continuation of the Digital Economic Estimates: Monthly GVA series, previously produced by Department for Culture, Media and Sport (DCMS). Responsibility for Digital Sector policy now sits with the Department for Science, Innovation and Technology (DSIT).
These estimates are Official Statistics, used to provide an estimate of the economic contribution of the Digital Sector, in terms of Gross Value Added (GVA), for the period January 2019 to June 2024. This current release contains new monthly figures for April 2024 to June 2024 and minor revisions for January 2024 to March 2024.
Estimates are presented in chained volume measures (i.e. have been adjusted for inflation), at 2022 prices, and are seasonally adjusted. These latest monthly estimates should only be used to illustrate general trends, not used as definitive figures.
You can use these estimates to:
You should not use these estimates to:
These findings are calculated based on published Office for National Statistics (ONS) data sources including the Index of Services and Index of Production.
These data sources are available for industrial ‘divisions’, whereas the Digital Sector is defined using more detailed industrial ‘classes’. This represents a significant limitation to this statistical series; the implications of which are discussed furt
According to statistics published by the European Commission, the value of data economy in the 27 European Union countries and United Kingdom is estimated to exceed 440 billion euros in 2020. The source defines the data economy as representing the overall impacts of the data market on the economy as a whole. It involves the generation, collection, storage, processing, distribution, analysis elaboration, delivery, and exploitation of data enabled by digital technologies.
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Quarterly estimates of national product, income and expenditure, sector accounts and balance of payments.