Stagflation (stagnation and inflation in one word) depicts a time period when an economy is not only suffering from a recession (declining GDP), but high unemployment and inflation rates as well. Usually unemployment and inflation are inversely related, which makes stagflation a rare occurrence. It first happened in the 1970s, when OPEC put an oil embargo on the United States, resulting in oil prices skyrocketing to three times the standard value at that time. As of September 2023, the price of oil fell by 20 percent in comparison to last year after having increased by 76 perent as a result of Russian invasion of Ukraine. The has been signs of stagflation in some countries through 2022 and 2023, but falling inflation rates indicate that the worst has been avoided.

The 1973-1975 recession marked the end of a remarkably prosperous period for developed economies. Apart from the United States, who experienced a brief recession in 1969-70, the other nations had enjoyed a period of uninterrupted growth in the 25 years leading up to this event. Japan in particular had the fastest growth of any major economy. This ended, however, following the 1973 oil crisis, which saw the member states of the OAPEC (Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries) place an embargo on the nations who supported Israel during the Yom Kippur War, particularly the U.S., who supplied arms to Israel. As a result, oil prices quadrupled in some periods; the U.S. and most of its major economic partners then went into recession due to their dependency on oil imports. Additional factors exacerbated the effects of the recession in each country, such as the miners' strike in the United Kingdom, or Nixon's unstable economic policies in the early 1970s. It was not until 1976 when the major OECD economies would come out of their recession, although real GDP growth rates would not return to the consistent highs experienced in the 1950s and 1960s. Additionally, while GDP growth resumed within a few years, inflation rates and unemployment rates generally remained higher going into the 1980s.

economic growth for 2023 was 11.23 billion US dollars, a 8.88% increase from 2022.

<ul style='margin-top:20px;'>

<li> economic growth for 2022 was <strong>10.32 billion US dollars</strong>, a <strong>8.66% increase</strong> from 2021.</li>
<li> economic growth for 2021 was <strong>9.49 billion US dollars</strong>, a <strong>0.12% decline</strong> from 2020.</li>
<li> economic growth for 2020 was <strong>9.51 billion US dollars</strong>, a <strong>11.41% decline</strong> from 2019.</li>
</ul>GDP at purchaser's prices is the sum of gross value added by all resident producers in the economy plus any product taxes and minus any subsidies not included in the value of the products. It is calculated without making deductions for depreciation of fabricated assets or for depletion and degradation of natural resources. Data are in current U.S. dollars. Dollar figures for GDP are converted from domestic currencies using single year official exchange rates. For a few countries where the official exchange rate does not reflect the rate effectively applied to actual foreign exchange transactions, an alternative conversion factor is used.

Beyer and Wacker (2022) data set in STATA .dta format, containing data on income levels and potential covariables for about 150 countries over the time period 1970-2019, averaged over non-overlapping 5-year periods.

The decades that followed the Second World War were among the most prosperous in modern history, and are referred to as the Golden Age of Capitalism in many countries. This period came to an end, however, with the 1973-1975 recession. Differences across the bloc Across the OECD member states, there was a significant drop in real GDP growth over the two decades, falling from an average of five percent annual growth in the 1960s to just 3.5 percent annually in most of the 1970s. Of all OECD countries shown here, Japan experienced the highest rate of real GDP growth in both decades, although it dropped from 11 to six percent between these years (Japan's real GDP growth was still higher in the 1970s than the other members' rates in the 1960s). Switzerland saw the largest relative decline over the two periods, with growth in the 1970s below one third of its growth rate in the 1960s. What caused the end of rapid growth? The Yom Kippur War between Israel and its Arab neighbors (primarily Egypt and Syria) resulted in the Arab oil-producing states placing an embargo on Israel's Western allies. This resulted in various energy and economic crises, compounded by other issues such as the end of the Bretton Woods financial system, which had far-reaching consequences for the OECD bloc. Additionally, the cost of agricultural goods and raw materials increased, and there was a very rare case of stagflation across most of the world's leading economies.

Data Set Information:

The dataset is compiled from the National Accounts Main Aggregates Database that presents a series of analytical national accounts tables from 1970 onwards for more than 200 countries and areas of the world. It is the product of a global cooperation effort between the Economic Statistics Branch of the United Nations Statistics Division, international statistical agencies, and the national statistical services of these countries and is developed in accordance with the recommendation of the Statistical Commission at its first session in 1947 that the Statistics Division should publish regularly the most recent available data on national accounts for as many countries and areas as possible.

This dataset can be used to perform clustering, regression, and time series tasks.

´For the first time, this study on East Germany presents data on the macroeconomic development in the period from 1970 until 2000, which are comparable as to their method, their price, and their structure. Hereby the domestic product, added value in the different economic fields, employment, and the consumption of the national economy according to their respective main deployment serve as indicators. The data collected so far are insufficient for a presentation of the development of major economic factors concerning the above-mentioned period, on a similar methodical basis, streamlined with regard to price changes, i.e. the prices of a basic year, and the structural definitions of today. As a matter of fact, the creation of comparable statistical findings for East Germany over the whole period of three decades is still difficult both in objective and subjective terms. The accession of East Germany to the former Federal Republic of Germany on 3rd October 1990, followed by the German Reunification, divides the period of this comparative study into two different phases: - from 1970 until 3rd October 1990: German Democratic Republic,- from 3rd October 1990 until 2000: the New Länder in the Federal Republic of Germany. For each of these two periods, extensive statistical data are available, which have been collected from the different statistical systems of the GDR and the Federal Republic of Germany. These two systems originated and developed from different socio-economic and political backgrounds. As to the field of study examined here – the complete national economy in total figures -, this means that the generated figures for the quantitative representation of the national economic output, employment, and consumption rely on different theoretical basises and statistical analogies, which makes a direct comparison of the data impossible. With the publication at hand, the author intends to make a contribution to closing the existing data gap.´ (Heske, G., 2005: Gross Domestic Product, Consumption, and Employment in East Germany 1970-2000. New Results of Comprehensive Calculations on the National Economy. Historical Social Research/Historische Sozialforschung. Supplement/Beiheft No. 17. Cologne: Zentrum für Historische Sozialforschung, S. 10-12). Factual classification of the tables in HISTAT:1. German Democratic Republic from 1970 until 19891.0.0 Gross domestic product, gross value added, gainfully employed persons, labour productivity, domestic utilisation1.1.0 Gross value added per economic domain, in million euro 95 (1970-1989)1.1.1 Gross value added, index of 1970 = 100 (1970-1989)1.1.2 Gross value added in percent per economic domain (1970-1989)1.2.0 Gainfully employed persons per economic domain (1970-1989)1.2.1 Gainfully employed persons per economic domain, index of 1970 = 100 (1970-1989)1.2.2 Gainfully employed persons in percent per economic domain (1970-1989)1.3.0 Labour productivity per economic domain, in euro 95 (1970-1989)1.3.1 Labour productivity per economic domain, index of 1970 = 100 (1970-1989)1.3.2 Labour productivity, total percentage according to economic domain (1970-1989)1.4.0 Utilisation of gross domestic product (GDP) in million euro 95 (1970-1989)1.4.1 Utilisation of gross domestic product, index of 1970 = 100 (1970-1989)1.4.2 Utilisation of gross domestic product, percentage of domestic utilisation (1970-1989) 2. Federal Republic of Germany 1970 until 19892.0.0 Gross domestic product, gross value added, gainfully employed persons, labour productivity, domestic utilisation (1970-1989)2.1.0 Utilisation of gross domestic product, percentage of domestic utilisation (1970-1989)2.1.1 Utilisation of gross domestic product, percentage of domestic utilisation (1970-1989)2.1.2 Gross value added in percent according to economic domain (1970-1989)2.2.0 Gainfully employed persons per economic domain (1970-1989)2.2.1 Gainfully employed persons, index of 1970 = 100 (1970-1989)2.2.2 Gainfully employed persons in percent per economic domain (1970-1989)2.3.0 Labour productivity per economic domain, euro 95 (1970-1989)2.3.1 Labour productivity per economic domain, index of 1970 = 100 (1970-1989)2.3.2 Labour productivity, total percentage per economic domain (1970-1989)2.4.0 Utilisation of gross domestic product (GDP) in million euro 95 (1970-1989)2.4.1 Utilisation of gross domestic product, index of 1970 = 100 (1970-1989)2.4.2 Utilisation of gross domestic product, percentage of domestic utilisation (1970-1989) 3. New Länder including Berlin from 1970 until 20003.0.0 Gross domestic product, gross value added, gainfully employed persons, labour productivity, domestic utilisation (1970-2000)3.1.0 Gross value added per economic domain, in million euro 95 (1970-2000)3.1.1 Gross value added, index of 1970 = 100 (1970-2000)3.1.2 Gross value added, index of 1989 = 100 (1970-2000)3.1.3 Gross value added in percent according to economic domain (1970-2000)3.2.0 Gainfully employed persons according to economi...

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Germany expanded 0.40 percent in the first quarter of 2025 over the previous quarter. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - Germany GDP Growth Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

Abstract copyright UK Data Service and data collection copyright owner.

The 1964-1970 Wilson governments were committed to economic planning and consensus with both sides of industry, designed to deliver 4 per cent growth and industrial modernization. But it achieved only 2.4 per cent average annual growth. This arose from a lack of confidence, arising from a weak external balance, on the part of the financial markets that the sterling-dollar rate of 1£=$2.80 was sustainable. Ultimately the pound was devalued by 14.3 per cent in November 1967.

Wilson’s defence of the pound has often been criticized. It has been argued that by drawing on external support to supplement the reserves Labour gave overriding influence over macroeconomic policy to foreign central bankers and the IMF whose main concern was not growth but a fall in imports, to be achieved by deflation. Devaluation, it is said, would have freed Britain from such influences. Yet the evidence suggests that throughout 1964-67 the case for an adjustment was not as powerful as has been assumed. Only in the autumn of 1967 did devaluation become inescapable, following bad trade figures occasioned by dock strikes, a global economic slowdown and the closure of the Suez Canal during and after the Arab-Israeli War. The events of 1968, when the exchange rate came under renewed pressure and the budget was by the government’s own admission ‘punishing’ suggests the choice between disinflation and devaluation may have been illusory. At the same time the measures taken to protect Sterling after 1964 were largely successful exercises in the control of speculative forces which were gaining strength in an increasingly interdependent world economy. The government’s actions reveal a commitment to managed markets at home and within the international environment: they were not rewarded with rapid growth but by 1970 they had arguably freed the UK from its ‘balance of payment constraints’.

Main Topics:

The material falls into two distinct parts. First, there is a set of graphs covering aspects of macroeconomic policy and outcome. Most of these have been compiled using material in the time series data provided in National Statistics Online. Particular attention is paid to the balance of payments. The period covered sometimes extends beyond the years under investigation (1964-1970), in order to achieve some sense of relative performance.

The second part consists of files of my own research notes covering key aspects of the study. Three of these are chronologies of crucial events (the 1965 Sterling crisis, the 1967 devaluation of Sterling, a narrative of the troubled history of Sterling in 1968). The fourth is a discussion of macroeconomic policy in 1965-67. These notes are based on secondary and, above all, on primary source material. The greater part of the latter was found in the National Archives, Kew, London.

The format of these research notes varies between summaries of events, documents and leading actors’ views (as recorded in their published diaries), and some discursive sections arising from my own interrogation of the source material. They provide the raw material for the published work which has started to emerge from this project.

Abstract (en): This research focuses on the longer-term monetary relationships in historical data. Charts describing the 10-year average growth rates in the M2 monetary aggregate, nominal GDP, real GDP, and inflation are used to show that there is a consistent longer-term correlation between M2 growth, nominal GDP growth, and inflation but not between such nominal variables and real GDP growth. The data reveal extremely long cycles in monetary growth and inflation, the most recent of which was the strong upward trend in M2 growth, nominal GDP growth, and inflation during the 1960s and 1970s, and the strong downward trend since then. Data going back to the 19th century show that the most recent inflation/disinflation cycle is a repetition of earlier long monetary growth and inflation cycles in the United States historical record. Also discussed is a measure of bond market inflation credibility, defined as the difference between averages in long-term bond rates and real GDP growth. By this measure, inflation credibility hovered close to zero during the 1950s and early 1960s, but then rose to a peak of about 10 percent in the early 1980s. During the 1990s, the bond market has yet to restore the low inflation credibility that existed before inflation turned up during the 1960s. The conclusion is that the risks of starting another costly inflation/disinflation cycle could be avoided by monitoring monetary growth and maintaining a sufficiently tight policy to keep inflation low. An environment of credible price stability would allow the economy to function unfettered by inflationary distortions, which is all that can reasonably be expected of monetary policy, and is precisely what should be expected. (1) The file submitted is the data file 9811WD.DAT. (2) These data are part of ICPSR's Publication-Related Archive and are distributed exactly as they arrived from the data depositor. ICPSR has not checked or processed this material. Users should consult the investigator(s) if further information is desired.

This data collection is one in a series of financial surveys of consumers conducted annually since 1946. In a nationally representative sample, the head of each family unit was interviewed. Starting in 1966, in order to examine the effect that increased car ownership was having on American families, the data collected in this series were organized so that they could be analyzed by both family unit and car unit. The 1970 data are based on car unit. Survey questions regarding automobiles included number of drivers and car owners in the family, make and model of each car, purchase method, car financing and installment debt, and expectations of car purchases in the coming year. Other questions in the 1970 survey covered the respondent's attitudes toward national economic conditions (e.g., the effect of income tax, Vietnam War involvement, and relations with other communist countries on United States business) and price activity, as well as the respondent's own financial situation. Other questions examined the family unit head's occupation, and the nature and amount of the family's income, debts, liquid assets, changes in liquid assets, savings, investment preferences, and actual and expected purchases of major durables. In addition, the survey explored in detail the subject of housing, e.g., previous and present home ownership, value of respondent's dwelling, and mortgage information. Questions in this survey also focused on life insurance coverage, mutual funds, and credit card use. Personal data include age and education of head, household composition, and occupation.

´For the first time, this study on East Germany presents data on the macroeconomic development in the period from 1970 until 2000, which are comparable as to their method, their price, and their structure. Hereby the domestic product, added value in the different economic fields, employment, and the consumption of the national economy according to their respective main deployment serve as indicators. The data collected so far are insufficient for a presentation of the development of major economic factors concerning the above-mentioned period, on a similar methodical basis, streamlined with regard to price changes, i.e. the prices of a basic year, and the structural definitions of today. As a matter of fact, the creation of comparable statistical findings for East Germany over the whole period of three decades is still difficult both in objective and subjective terms. The accession of East Germany to the former Federal Republic of Germany on 3rd October 1990, followed by the German Reunification, divides the period of this comparative study into two different phases: - from 1970 until 3rd October 1990: German Democratic Republic, - from 3rd October 1990 until 2000: the New Länder in the Federal Republic of Germany.

For each of these two periods, extensive statistical data are available, which have been collected from the different statistical systems of the GDR and the Federal Republic of Germany. These two systems originated and developed from different socio-economic and political backgrounds. As to the field of study examined here – the complete national economy in total figures -, this means that the generated figures for the quantitative representation of the national economic output, employment, and consumption rely on different theoretical basises and statistical analogies, which makes a direct comparison of the data impossible. With the publication at hand, the author intends to make a contribution to closing the existing data gap.´ (Heske, G., 2005: Gross Domestic Product, Consumption, and Employment in East Germany 1970-2000. New Results of Comprehensive Calculations on the National Economy. Historical Social Research/Historische Sozialforschung. Supplement/Beiheft No. 17. Cologne: Zentrum für Historische Sozialforschung, S. 10-12).

Factual classification of the tables in HISTAT: 1. German Democratic Republic from 1970 until 1989 1.0.0 Gross domestic product, gross value added, gainfully employed persons, labour productivity, domestic utilisation 1.1.0 Gross value added per economic domain, in million euro 95 (1970-1989) 1.1.1 Gross value added, index of 1970 = 100 (1970-1989) 1.1.2 Gross value added in percent per economic domain (1970-1989) 1.2.0 Gainfully employed persons per economic domain (1970-1989) 1.2.1 Gainfully employed persons per economic domain, index of 1970 = 100 (1970-1989) 1.2.2 Gainfully employed persons in percent per economic domain (1970-1989) 1.3.0 Labour productivity per economic domain, in euro 95 (1970-1989) 1.3.1 Labour productivity per economic domain, index of 1970 = 100 (1970-1989) 1.3.2 Labour productivity, total percentage according to economic domain (1970-1989) 1.4.0 Utilisation of gross domestic product (GDP) in million euro 95 (1970-1989) 1.4.1 Utilisation of gross domestic product, index of 1970 = 100 (1970-1989) 1.4.2 Utilisation of gross domestic product, percentage of domestic utilisation (1970-1989)

1. Federal Republic of Germany 1970 until 1989 2.0.0 Gross domestic product, gross value added, gainfully employed persons, labour productivity, domestic utilisation (1970-1989) 2.1.0 Utilisation of gross domestic product, percentage of domestic utilisation (1970-1989) 2.1.1 Utilisation of gross domestic product, percentage of domestic utilisation (1970-1989) 2.1.2 Gross value added in percent according to economic domain (1970-1989) 2.2.0 Gainfully employed persons per economic domain (1970-1989) 2.2.1 Gainfully employed persons, index of 1970 = 100 (1970-1989) 2.2.2 Gainfully employed persons in percent per economic domain (1970-1989) 2.3.0 Labour productivity per economic domain, euro 95 (1970-1989) 2.3.1 Labour productivity per economic domain, index of 1970 = 100 (1970-1989) 2.3.2 Labour productivity, total percentage per economic domain (1970-1989) 2.4.0 Utilisation of gross domestic product (GDP) in million euro 95 (1970-1989) 2.4.1 Utilisation of gross domestic product, index of 1970 = 100 (1970-1989) 2.4.2 Utilisation of gross domestic product, percentage of ...

United States US: GDP: Real: Exports of Goods and Services data was reported at 2,210.442 USD bn in 2016. This records a decrease from the previous number of 2,217.733 USD bn for 2015. United States US: GDP: Real: Exports of Goods and Services data is updated yearly, averaging 791.751 USD bn from Dec 1970 (Median) to 2016, with 47 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 2,217.733 USD bn in 2015 and a record low of 195.020 USD bn in 1970. United States US: GDP: Real: Exports of Goods and Services data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by World Bank. The data is categorized under Global Database’s USA – Table US.World Bank: Gross Domestic Product: Real. Exports of goods and services represent the value of all goods and other market services provided to the rest of the world. They include the value of merchandise, freight, insurance, transport, travel, royalties, license fees, and other services, such as communication, construction, financial, information, business, personal, and government services. They exclude compensation of employees and investment income (formerly called factor services) and transfer payments. Data are in constant local currency.; ; World Bank national accounts data, and OECD National Accounts data files.; ;

Czechoslovakia's economy saw out the 1970s and 1980s with a positive trade balance and current account, making it just one of three Eastern Bloc states (along with Romania and the USSR) to do so. Overall, Czechoslovakia exported approximately 400 million U.S. dollars more goods and services than was imported in these two decades.

U.S. gdp growth rate for 2023 was 2.89%, a 0.38% increase from 2022.

<ul style='margin-top:20px;'>

<li>U.S. gdp growth rate for 2022 was <strong>2.51%</strong>, a <strong>3.54% decline</strong> from 2021.</li>
<li>U.S. gdp growth rate for 2021 was <strong>6.06%</strong>, a <strong>8.22% increase</strong> from 2020.</li>
<li>U.S. gdp growth rate for 2020 was <strong>-2.16%</strong>, a <strong>4.75% decline</strong> from 2019.</li>
</ul>Annual percentage growth rate of GDP at market prices based on constant local currency. Aggregates are based on constant 2010 U.S. dollars. GDP is the sum of gross value added by all resident producers in the economy plus any product taxes and minus any subsidies not included in the value of the products. It is calculated without making deductions for depreciation of fabricated assets or for depletion and degradation of natural resources.

Part I: Germany By means of a statistical analysis, this study examines the question whether there are long-term fluctuations in the course of the economic development in Germany, and if so, why they occur. On the grounds of a discussion about the hypothesises of lack of capital, overproduction and innovation, an explanatory model for the growth waves has been developed. This model, which is based on an empirical analysis, can be summarised as follows: The long-term development of the national product is mainly determined by the development of investments, which depend on the development of the profit expectations in their turn. In this respect, the development of wages, national consumption, and protection are considered important factors for the definition of long-term profit expectations. Hereby the above-mentioned model is empirically tested. Eventually some economic conclusions are drawn.

Part II: An International Comparison In the 1970s, the process of global economic growth weakened considerably as compared to the two preceding decades. This development provoked several explanatory attempts. Within the scope of an empiric study for Germany, the slowed growth of the 1970s has been understood as being the downswing phase of a long-term cycle of development. In doing so, the diagnosed development of the national product was mainly explained by long-term fluctuations of the (functional) distribution of income and the governmental activity, which, on their part, caused long-term ups and downs concerning investment activities due to their influence on profit expectations. In fact, the article faced harsh criticism, which was directed at both the explanatory approach and the under-lying empirical method. This study calculates the deviations of streamlined national product series from the long-term trend; its results show that there have been long-term, more or less distinct fluctuations in the development of the national product of several free-market countries other than Germany. According to the available data, different index numbers were applied to the respective national production. The period examined in this study for every country reaches as far back as data are available.

With regard to the results of the empirical analysis of the long-term economic development of Germany, France, Italy, Sweden, the United Kingdom, the United States, and the Soviet Union, it can be stated that - long-term fluctuations of the economic development are not merely restricted to Germany, and that a socialistic economic system presumably does not guarantee a continuous growth either; - the cyclical pattern differs from country to country; - there were parallel developments at the international level; however, these do not develop in a synchronous way.

Factual classification of the tables in HISTAT: Part I: Germany Part I: 1. Macroeconomic indicators for the Federal Republic of Germany (1960-1990) Part I: A.1 Net national product and net investments in the Federal Republic of Germany (1850-1990) Part I:A.2 Net national product, net investments, foreign trade values and national consumption (in million D-marks) in Germany (1850-1990) Part I: A.3 Stock yields and profit expectations (in percent) in Germany (1926-1977) Part I: A.4 Actual earnings of employees and unemployment rate (in percent) in Germany (1925-1990) Part I: A.5 The population (in 1,000) in the Federal Republic of Germany and in the German Reich (1850-1913)

Part II: International comparison Part II: A.1.Macroeconomic annual production of selected states (1830-1979) Part II: A.2 Investments of selected states (1830-1979) Part II: A.3 Unemployment rate of selected states (in percent) (1887-1979)

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Germany was worth 4659.93 billion US dollars in 2024, according to official data from the World Bank. The GDP value of Germany represents 4.39 percent of the world economy. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - Germany GDP - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

This dataset contains country level economic and social measures for 183 countries. Part 1, World Tables (1980 File), contains, where available, measures of (1)population, (2)national accounts and price data for 1950, 1955, 1960 through 1977, (3)data on external trade for 1962, 1965, 1970, and 1977, (4)data on balance of payments, debt, central government finance and trade indices for 1970-1977, and (5)social data for 1960, 1970, and (estimated) 1977. More specifically, the groupings include population, GDP by industrial origin and expenditures in constant local prices and current local prices, exchange rates and indices, balance of payments and external debt ($US), central government finance in local currency, social indicators, and external trade. Part 2, World Tables (1982 File), contains data on national accounts, prices, exchange rates and population for 1960-1981. The groupings include GDP by industrial origin as well as expenditure in current local prices and constant local prices, area, population, exchange rates, and indices and savings.

During the period beginning roughly in the mid-1980s until the Global Financial Crisis (2007-2008), the U.S. economy experienced a time of relative economic calm, with low inflation and consistent GDP growth. Compared with the turbulent economic era which had preceded it in the 1970s and the early 1980s, the lack of extreme fluctuations in the business cycle led some commentators to suggest that macroeconomic issues such as high inflation, long-term unemployment and financial crises were a thing of the past. Indeed, the President of the American Economic Association, Professor Robert Lucas, famously proclaimed in 2003 that "central problem of depression prevention has been solved, for all practical purposes". Ben Bernanke, the future chairman of the Federal Reserve during the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and 2022 Nobel Prize in Economics recipient, coined the term 'the Great Moderation' to describe this era of newfound economic confidence. The era came to an abrupt end with the outbreak of the GFC in the Summer of 2007, as the U.S. financial system began to crash due to a downturn in the real estate market.

Causes of the Great Moderation, and its downfall

A number of factors have been cited as contributing to the Great Moderation including central bank monetary policies, the shift from manufacturing to services in the economy, improvements in information technology and management practices, as well as reduced energy prices. The period coincided with the term of Fed chairman Alan Greenspan (1987-2006), famous for the 'Greenspan put', a policy which meant that the Fed would proactively address downturns in the stock market using its monetary policy tools. These economic factors came to prominence at the same time as the end of the Cold War (1947-1991), with the U.S. attaining a new level of hegemony in global politics, as its main geopolitical rival, the Soviet Union, no longer existed. During the Great Moderation, the U.S. experienced a recession twice, between July 1990 and March 1991, and again from March 2001 tom November 2001, however, these relatively short recessions did not knock the U.S. off its growth path. The build up of household and corporate debt over the early 2000s eventually led to the Global Financial Crisis, as the bursting of the U.S. housing bubble in 2007 reverberated across the financial system, with a subsequent credit freeze and mass defaults.

Historical chart and dataset showing U.S. GDP by year from 1960 to 2023.