Fault Lines Widen in the Global Recovery

Economic prospects have diverged further across countries since the April 2021 World Economic Outlook (WEO) forecast. Vaccine access has emerged as the principal fault line along which the global recovery splits into two blocs: those that can look forward to further normalization of activity later this year (almost all advanced economies) and those that will still face resurgent infections and rising COVID death tolls. The recovery, however, is not assured even in countries where infections are currently very low so long as the virus circulates elsewhere.

The global economy is projected to grow 6.0 percent in 2021 and 4.9 percent in 2022.The 2021 global forecast is unchanged from the April 2021 WEO, but with offsetting revisions. Prospects for emerging market and developing economies have been marked down for 2021, especially for Emerging Asia. By contrast, the forecast for advanced economies is revised up. These revisions reflect pandemic developments and changes in policy support. The 0.5 percentage-point upgrade for 2022 derives largely from the forecast upgrade for advanced economies, particularly the United States, reflecting the anticipated legislation of additional fiscal support in the second half of 2021 and improved health metrics more broadly across the group.

Recent price pressures for the most part reflect unusual pandemic-related developments and transitory supply-demand mismatches. Inflation is expected to return to its pre-pandemic ranges in most countries in 2022 once these disturbances work their way through prices, though uncertainty remains high. Elevated inflation is also expected in some emerging market and developing economies, related in part to high food prices. Central banks should generally look through transitory inflation pressures and avoid tightening until there is more clarity on underlying price dynamics. Clear communication from central banks on the outlook for monetary policy will be key to shaping inflation expectations and safeguarding against premature tightening of financial conditions. There is, however, a risk that transitory pressures could become more persistent and central banks may need to take preemptive action.

Risks around the global baseline are to the downside. Slower-than-anticipated vaccine rollout would allow the virus to mutate further. Financial conditions could tighten rapidly, for instance from a reassessment of the monetary policy outlook in advanced economies if inflation expectations increase more rapidly than anticipated. A double hit to emerging market and developing economies from worsening pandemic dynamics and tighter external financial conditions would severely set back their recovery and drag global growth below this outlook’s baseline.

Multilateral action has a vital role to play in diminishing divergences and strengthening global prospects. The immediate priority is to deploy vaccines equitably worldwide. A $50 billion IMF staff proposal, jointly endorsed by the World Health Organization, World Trade Organization, and World Bank, provides clear targets and pragmatic actions at a feasible cost to end the pandemic. Financially constrained economies also need unimpeded access to international liquidity. The proposed $650 billion General Allocation of Special Drawing Rights at the IMF is set to boost reserve assets of all economies and help ease liquidity constraints. Countries also need to redouble collective efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. These multilateral actions can be reinforced by national-level policies tailored to the stage of the crisis that help catalyze a sustainable, inclusive recovery. Concerted, well-directed policies can make the difference between a future of durable recoveries for all economies or one with widening fault lines—as many struggle with the health crisis while a handful see conditions normalize, albeit with the constant threat of renewed flare-ups.

By April 2026, it is projected that there is a probability of ***** percent that the United States will fall into another economic recession. This reflects a significant decrease from the projection of the preceding month.

The impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) lockdown in India slashed GDP growth forecasts for financial year 2021. Among the agencies that estimated growth, World Bank predicted a contraction of nearly *** percent, while the SBI (before the Maharashtra lockdown in April 2021) estimated a decline of ***** percent.

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The DELi regional socioeconomic projections 2024 include projections of annual population change rate, natural change rate, net migration rate, GDP growth and GDP per capita growth for the EU27 at the NUTS3 level according to the NUTS 2021 version. All the changes are expressed in percentage points. The population change rate corresponds to the sum of natural change rate and net migration rate. Population change, natural change and net migration for the year x can be obtained as follows: population_change(x) = population(x) * pop_change_rate(x) / 100, natural_change(x) = population(x) * nat_change_rate(x) / 100, net_migration(x) = population(x) * net_mig_rate(x) / 100. For population projections: population(x+1) = population(x) + population_change(x) = population(x) * (1 + pop_change_rate(x) / 100). For GDP projections: GDP(x+1) = GDP(x) * (1 + GDP_growth(x) / 100). UNIT OF MEASURE: pop_change_rate, nat_change_rate, net_mig_rate, GDP_growth, GDPpc_growth. RESOLUTION: NUTS3. COMPLETENESS: EU27, missing Départements d'Outre Mer (FRY10, FRY20, FRY30, FRY40, FRY50). POLICY CONTEXT: This dataset was produced in the context of the Rural Observatory, in a collaboration between the JRC, DG AGRI and DE REGIO. A working paper has been published analysing the results of the projections, available at https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC140514. METHODOLOGY: The projections have been generated using the Demography-Economy-Land use interaction (DELi) model. DELi regionalizes exogenous, socioeconomic and demographic projections from national to regional level, capturing interactions between demography, economy, and land use. The DELi model is described in a dedicated technical report: https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC136498. DATA SOURCES: The regional projections have been generated using national level projections and historical regional data. The national level projections have been retrieved from the ageing report 2021 (https://economy-finance.ec.europa.eu/publications/2021-ageing-report-economic-and-budgetary-projections-eu-member-states-2019-2070_en). The historical regional data have been retrieved from ARDECO (https://knowledge4policy.ec.europa.eu/territorial/ardeco-database_en). LEVEL OF AGGREGATION: NUTS3 UNCERTAINTY AND LIMITATIONS: These projections are based on a 'business as usual' scenario, whereby observed variable relationships remain constant in the future. DELi does predict shocks and their impacts.

United States Excess Deaths: Predicted: Above Upper Bound: Columbia data was reported at 0.000 Number in 30 Oct 2021. This stayed constant from the previous number of 0.000 Number for 23 Oct 2021. United States Excess Deaths: Predicted: Above Upper Bound: Columbia data is updated weekly, averaging 0.000 Number from Jan 2017 (Median) to 30 Oct 2021, with 251 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 102.000 Number in 25 Apr 2020 and a record low of 0.000 Number in 30 Oct 2021. United States Excess Deaths: Predicted: Above Upper Bound: Columbia data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.G011: Number of Excess Deaths: by States: All Causes: Predicted (Discontinued).

The NextGenerationEU economic stimulus plan is set to be implemented according to each European Union member state's national recovery & resilience plan between 2021 and 2026. The stimulus effect which this will have varies across the different member states, with those states which are set to receive a relatively large stimulus package compared with their GDP experiencing a greater boost to growth than others, according to GDP forecasts.

Countries such as Greece, Bulgaria, and Croatia are set to experience as much as three percent additional GDP growth over the target years for the NextGenEU programs. On the other hand, countries such as Sweden, the Netherlands, and Austria, who will receive relatively smaller packages, will experience additional GDP growth of less than one percent per year, mostly caused by spillovers from other countries' plans. While the packages are to be dispersed between 2021 and 2026, the effect on GDP growth in many countries is set to be long-lasting, with growth being boosted into the 2030s.

United States Excess Deaths: Predicted: Above Upper Bound: New Jersey data was reported at 0.000 Number in 30 Oct 2021. This records a decrease from the previous number of 32.000 Number for 23 Oct 2021. United States Excess Deaths: Predicted: Above Upper Bound: New Jersey data is updated weekly, averaging 0.000 Number from Jan 2017 (Median) to 30 Oct 2021, with 251 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 3,220.000 Number in 11 Apr 2020 and a record low of 0.000 Number in 30 Oct 2021. United States Excess Deaths: Predicted: Above Upper Bound: New Jersey data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.G011: Number of Excess Deaths: by States: All Causes: Predicted (Discontinued).

Across the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, and the European Union, gross domestic products (GDP) decreased in 2020 as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, by 2021, growth rates were positive in all four areas again. The United Kingdom, Germany, and the European Union all experiencing slow economic growth in 2023 amid high inflation, with Germany even seeing an economic recession. GDP and its components GDP refers to the total market value of all goods and services that are produced within a country per year. It is composed of government spending, consumption, business investments and net exports. It is an important indicator to measure the economic strength of a country. Economists rely on a variety of factors when predicting the future performance of the GDP. Inflation rate is one of the economic indicators providing insight into the future behavior of households, which make up a significant proportion of GDP. Projections are based on the past performance of such information. Future considerations Some factors can be more easily predicted than others. For example, projections of the annual inflation rate of the United States are easy to come by. However, the intensity and impact of something like Brexit is difficult to predict. Moreover, the occurrence and impact of events such as the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia's war in Ukraine is difficult to foresee. Hence, actual GDP growth may be higher or lower than the original estimates.

The benchmark interest rate in the United States was last recorded at 4 percent. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - United States Fed Funds Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

Spain's economy grew by 3.4 percent year-on-year in the third quarter of 2021, easing sharply from an upwardly revised record 17.7 percent expansion in the previous three-month period but well above preliminary estimates of 2.7 percent. GDP Annual Growth Rate in Spain averaged 1.78 percent from 1996 until 2021, reaching an all time high of 17.50 percent in the second quarter of 2021 and a record low of -21.50 percent in the second quarter of 2020. This page provides the latest reported value for - Spain GDP Annual Growth Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

Private businesses in the United States hired 42 thousand workers in October of 2025 compared to -29 thousand in September of 2025. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - United States ADP Employment Change - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Venezuela was worth 111.81 billion US dollars in 2021, according to official data from the World Bank. The GDP value of Venezuela represents 0.11 percent of the world economy. This dataset provides - Venezuela GDP - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

United States Excess Deaths excl COVID: Predicted: Above Expected: New York City data was reported at 0.000 Number in 30 Oct 2021. This stayed constant from the previous number of 0.000 Number for 23 Oct 2021. United States Excess Deaths excl COVID: Predicted: Above Expected: New York City data is updated weekly, averaging 0.000 Number from Jan 2017 (Median) to 30 Oct 2021, with 251 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 1,877.000 Number in 11 Apr 2020 and a record low of 0.000 Number in 30 Oct 2021. United States Excess Deaths excl COVID: Predicted: Above Expected: New York City data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.G012: Number of Excess Deaths: by States: All Causes excluding COVID-19: Predicted (Discontinued).

United States Competitors Exports Price Index: Goods and Services data was reported at 1.045 Index, 2021 in Dec 2026. This records an increase from the previous number of 1.039 Index, 2021 for Sep 2026. United States Competitors Exports Price Index: Goods and Services data is updated quarterly, averaging 0.757 Index, 2021 from Mar 1975 (Median) to Dec 2026, with 208 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 1.091 Index, 2021 in Jun 2011 and a record low of 0.450 Index, 2021 in Sep 1975. United States Competitors Exports Price Index: Goods and Services data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.OECD.EO: Exports and Imports Price Index: Forecast: OECD Member: Quarterly.

According to a poll conducted at the end of 2022, Americans were feeling quite pessimistic about the coming year. 90 percent of Americans felt negatively about the prospect of political conflict in 2023.

The Economy 2022 was a difficult year for many Americans, as it was for many around the world. After a year of high inflation, record fuel prices, and decreased financial security, the country greeted 2023 with high rates of skepticism and caution. Although the U.S. economy itself has experienced a strong rebound from the pandemic recession compared with other major economies, a sustained decline in consumer spending power thanks to wage growth not keeping pace with inflation has everyday Americans feeling the pinch.

U.S. political landscape The political scene in the U.S. also had a tumultuous few years in the lead up to 2023. The election of Donald Trump as the 45th President of the United States in 2016 left many voters reeling and the country more divided than ever. The beginning of 2021 was market by the January 6th attack on the Capitol, as well as the inauguration of Joe Biden. Additionally, the country continued to grapple with a politicized response to the COVID-19 pandemic and associated restrictions. 2022 began with the Russian invasion of Ukraine, ushering in the beginning of a global fuel and inflation crisis. In the midst of hardening economic conditions, the Supreme Court overturned its ruling on Roe v. Wade, returning the power to decide abortion restrictions to state legislatures.

The 2022 midterm elections saw Republicans win enough seats to take back control of the House of Representatives, but saw the GOP ultimately underperform compared to predictions at the time. The first day of the 2023 congressional term was marked by the inability of the Republican Party to unify itself behind one candidate for Speaker of the House, leading to a once in a century multi-round of Speaker elections. With new members of the House not able to be sworn in until a Speaker is elected, 2023 had a difficult start.

Copper futures traded close to the $4.7-per-pound level, not far from an all-time high of $5 hit on March 7th amid a tight market as investors weigh lower supply from top producer Chile, disruptions caused by the war in Ukraine, and assess the impact of the latest Covid outbreak in China in both demand and supply. Copper output in Chile, the world's largest producer, fell 7% from a year earlier to 394,700 tonnes in February, following a 7.5% fall in January and a 1.9% decline in 2021 production. Meanwhile, Chinese authorities extended a lockdown in Shanghai, an industrial powerhouse and major port, further threatening global supply chains. Logistics operators report that restrictions are already making it harder to move goods around and keep factories operating at full capacity. Elsewhere, Peru's ministry of economy and finance said that the world’s second-largest copper supplier will target the excess profits that mining companies earned from rising metal prices around the world. Historically, Copper reached an all time high of 5.02 in March of 2022.

United States Excess Deaths: Predicted: Above Upper Bound: Louisiana data was reported at 0.000 Number in 30 Oct 2021. This stayed constant from the previous number of 0.000 Number for 23 Oct 2021. United States Excess Deaths: Predicted: Above Upper Bound: Louisiana data is updated weekly, averaging 0.000 Number from Jan 2017 (Median) to 30 Oct 2021, with 251 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 511.000 Number in 11 Apr 2020 and a record low of 0.000 Number in 30 Oct 2021. United States Excess Deaths: Predicted: Above Upper Bound: Louisiana data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.G011: Number of Excess Deaths: by States: All Causes: Predicted (Discontinued).

In 2025, the annual unemployment rate of the United Kingdom is expected to be *** percent, compared with *** percent in 2024. Unemployment is forecast to fall to *** percent in 2026, gradually declining to *** percent by 2028. In the UK's last government budget in October 2024, the country's unemployment rate for 2025 was forecast to average out at *** percent, but this was increased to *** percent in the "Spring Statement" on public finances in March 2025. Uptick in unemployment after falling to historic lows A common indicator of an economy’s relative health, the unemployment rate in the UK generally fell throughout most of the 2010s, after reaching *** percent in late 2011. After a sudden increase in unemployment during the COVID-19 pandemic, there was a steep decline that lasted until August 2022, when the unemployment rate was just *** percent. There was then a rise in unemployment from 2023 onwards, which continued throughout 2024 and into 2025. This has been matched by a fall in UK job vacancies, which peaked at *** million in May 2022, but has been falling in most months since then, with approximately ******* vacancies in February 2025. Revisions to GDP and inflation for 2025 Since the global financial crisis of the late 2000s, and especially since the COVID-19 pandemic, the UK's economic growth has been poor, with the UK alternating between weak growth and slight contractions. For 2025, the UK economy is set to grow by just *** percent, a downgrade from *** percent predicted in late 2024. Inflation, which skyrocketed from late 2021 onwards, reached a peak of **** percent in October 2022, and although down to more usual levels by 2024, is expected to rise in 2025, reaching around *** percent by the second half of the year.

Economic Activity Index in China decreased to 50.80 points in October from 51.70 points in September of 2021. This dataset provides - China Economic Activity Index- actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.